Article: Report From The Fort: Jake Odorizzi Is Better Than You Think

[John Bonnes]

FT. MYERS - Today Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for a new team and a new season, putting his “bad” 2017 year behind him. That was the narrative as he was shopped by the Rays this offseason: Odorizzi got worse, he was hurt, he gave up too many home runs, all his numbers went backwards.

 

But in that bad year, he had a 4.14 ERA, which would have made him the Twins third best pitcher. Perhaps he was bad compared to the rest of the loaded Tampa Bay rotation. Or perhaps he was bad compared to the previous standards he set. How would he evaluate it?“Below average,” replies Odorizzi. “I built a rapport of being better than that. I guess it comes with the territory. I guess when you decline a little bit, people just automatically say it’s a horrible year.”

 

It was a decline from the 3.69 ERA the year before, which was a decline from the 3.35 ERA in 2015. But his 3.71 ERA over that stretch would be a welcome addition to the Twins. So would the 500.1 innings which would make him one of the most durable starters on the staff.

 

Getting away from just ERA, some of his other numbers were more alarming. His walk rate climbed while his strikeout rate held steady. That 4.14 ERA is fortunate given those. So how would he explain his “below average” year?

 

“I pitched through a back strain for the majority of the year,” explains Odorizzi. “Then I took some time off in July. When I came back, my numbers were back to normal.”

 

He’s right. Odorizzi went on the disabled list July 26. He was back just two weeks later on August 9. His ERA before the move was 4.47. Afterward, his ERA was 3.51. His strikeout rate was up a bit, too. But the biggest improvement was in his weakest area: he gave up a lot fewer home runs.

 

That’s been a perceived weakness for the flyball-prone Odorizzi for the last two years. Even after the time on the DL, he gave up a home run about every seven innings. That’s about average for a major league pitcher last year. But before the injury, it was every four(!) at-bats. Odorizzi is convinced that the injury had him changing his mechanics and that was affecting the control of his fastball.

 

“My fastball location was way below what it normally is. Just part of the mechanics. I was trying to open up my front side earlier to take some pressure off [my back],” explains Odorizzi. “It was more of a side-to-side pitch and rotational instead of straight down through pitches. Usually my pitches are on target but miss up and down, but now they were missing left and right, and that lead to balls being left over the plate more often, which I’ve done in the past and it affects my home run rate. So I know exactly why stuff happened.”

 

Odorizzi says there shouldn’t be any carryover. He hasn’t had back injuries in the past, and this one was coupled with a strained hamstring on the same side, which may have been a contributing factor. This offseason he was far more careful with lifting that could affect his back, and took up Pilates regularly to work on his flexibility and core.

 

If he’s right, and Odorizzi is back to “normal” that’s very good news for Twins fans. Odorizzi’s career ERA is 3.83, which is the lowest of any probable starting pitcher in the Twins rotation. It certainly is a lot more promising than the tandem of Hector Santiago and Bartolo Colon who combined for a 5.39 ERA in the 29 starts they made last year. Even if Odorizzi duplicates his "bad" 2017, he represents a 20-run improvement over those two.

 

The Twins brain trust might not have been able to convince Yu Darvish to come to the Twins Cities, but the 27-year-old Odorizzi has the pedigree, the history and now hopefully the health to make a very positive impact on the Twins rotation.

 

 

 

Hey, you're only getting half the story. For the rest of our spring training coverage, check out tonight's Nightly Wrap, which has all the stuff we didn't have time to write in one small 10-15 minute audio file that you can listen to on your smartphone or PC. Over 400 people check out yesterday's initial episode. We think you're going to love it.

 

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[Drew]

 

That’s been a perceived weakness for the flyball-prone Odorizzi for the last two years. Even after the time on the DL, he gave up a home run about every seven innings. That’s about average for a major league pitcher last year. But before the injury, it was every four(!) at-bats. 

 

 

 

A HR every 4 AB's is quite a few. 

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff, sir. I doubt most teams expect him to be that good, or he'd have gone for a lot more. Let's hope they are all wrong.

[Brandon]

My concern is when there is a back injury, the pitcher favors the injury and changes mechanics adding stress to other areas....shoulder and ucl is my concern for this season.

[jimbo92107]

"This offseason he was far more careful with lifting that could affect his back, and took up Pilates regularly to work on his flexibility and core."

 

Sounds familiar. I remember another pitcher that took up Pilates before having a breakout year. Jake Arrieta. 

 

I have a good feeling about this. 

[rdehring]

I still can't believe we got this guy for Jermaine Palacios.  And I was a huge fan of Palacios.

 

We do have Odorizzi for two years, John?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We do have Odorizzi for two years, John?

His final year of arbitration is 2019 so the Twins can keep him if they want him.

[Parker Hageman]

 

"This offseason he was far more careful with lifting that could affect his back, and took up Pilates regularly to work on his flexibility and core."

 

Sounds familiar. I remember another pitcher that took up Pilates before having a breakout year. Jake Arrieta. 

 

I have a good feeling about this. 

 

Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.

[Doomtints]

He gives up way too many home runs. His BA against for fly balls is under .200, but the OPS against for fly balls over .850 because of the "home run problem."

There isn't much room there for Buxton to help him, the Rays defense was already doing a superb job behind him.

 

It's interesting that FIP aficionados are willing to give Odorizzi a free pass.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Doomtints

[bobs]

It really doesn't matter whether or not Odorizzi is better than we think.  Bottom line is he is better than guys the Twins have paraded out there in the past.  SO many things need to go right for a team to contend,  Jake Odorizzi can NOT be expected to be some kind of ace people.  He is what he is...a solid mid-rotation pitcher.  And that, in itself, makes the Twins better than they were before they traded for him.

[jimbo92107]

 

Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.

True enough; of the six or seven Americans that take up Pilates every year, only a vanishingly small percentage go on to win a Cy Young award.

 

On the other hand, Odorizzi (Jake-O? Riz? Jizzi? Jazzi?) already was a very good MLB starter. If a stronger core helps him generate more power and control, he may in fact transform into Optimus Prime hurling sizzling spheres past puny humans.

 

Or something like that. ;-)

 

By the way, I did Pilates for a very short time about fifteen years ago. I couldn't even handle the grueling workouts. Gave it up after maybe ten sessions. Plus the coach got weird about some kind of mystical Yoga stuff. If they could just stick to the friggin' exercises... whatever.

Edited March 2, 2018 by jimbo92107

[ashbury]

Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.

Mrs Ash took up Pilates. She still can't throw a decent fastball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.

Maybe he was doing it wrong?

 

He could have easily missed the letter "i" and tried lifting/throwing plates instead...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mrs Ash took up Pilates. She still can't throw a decent fastball.

But -- how's her fastball, relative to before she took up Pilates?

[Tomj14]

 

Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.

One could argue that before Jake started Pilates, he was as good as May hopes to be.

[blindeke]

Great article John! I love the detailed quotes.

[caninatl04]

You wrote:

 

"he gave up a home run about every seven innings. That’s about average for a major league pitcher last year. But before the injury, it was every four(!) at-bats"

 

Is this correct?

[h2oface]

I heard similar projections about Nolasco and Pelfrey when signed. I hope for the best, but I really don't see Odorizzi as any different, and am not expecting results that wow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I heard similar projections about Nolasco and Pelfrey when signed. I hope for the best, but I really don't see Odorizzi as any different, and am not expecting results that wow.

You heard opposite projections about them, that they’d finally normalize their ERA DOWN to their FIP. Odorizzi has the opposite “problem”. His FIP was way higher than his ERA last season.

[h2oface]

 

You heard opposite projections about them, that they’d finally normalize their ERA DOWN to their FIP. Odorizzi has the opposite “problem”. His FIP was way higher than his ERA last season.

 

Well, I wasn't referring to specifics.... just the general feeling that it was a good signing, and the ways the stats could be interpreted that they would be better than they have been recently, again. To me, it doesn't matter what direction they are coming from, just the results. And Odorizzi seems to be a similar pitcher. So not to excited here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, I wasn't referring to specifics.... just the general feeling that it was a good signing, and the ways the stats could be interpreted that they would be better than they have been recently, again. To me, it doesn't matter what direction they are coming from, just the results. And Odorizzi seems to be a similar pitcher. So not to excited here.

There's really nothing comparable between Odorizzi and Pelfrey/Nolasco.

[BJames]

The job of the F.O. is to make the team better, just not at the expense of long term (Mauer,Hughes,Nolasco) This years signings seem to make the team better, if just slightly, but improvement is improvement. We just don't need so-so signings clogging the up the 25 man roster.  So far I think we're setup up good for next years freeing up of $$$  I still want to know why Enns is on this 40 man roster while we loss some talented pitchers.  Enns is not a top Prospect, is 26 years old and doesn't even show up on any charts as a chance of making the Bigs???  We could have kept Chargois or Burdi. 

[bean5302]

Odorizzi's FIP and xFIP from 8/9 on? 4.78 and 5.36, respectively. He got lucky despite an eye opening 4.89 BB/9 and .202 BABIP.

 

If Odorizzi pitches like he did from 8/9 on, it's likely he'll be a non-tender candidate after this year.

[jimmer]

Odorizzi 2017 FIP: 5.43  Which would have been fourth on our 2017 team (unless we include Mejia and Colon's work with us, then Odorizzi would have been 6th).

 

And his BABIP was ridiculously low.  Way lower than it's ever been.

Edited March 3, 2018 by jimmer