Joe Mauer love fest

Mike Frasier Law · May 1, 2017

Joe's numbers are bad this year. There's no sugar coating it. But, as a true believer, I always find ways to believe in Joe. Here's 2017's version.

Joe's hitting more fly balls. This is one of the first stats to stabilize (no complaints about small sample sizes). This is very good if they aren't pop-ups. Right now, he's hitting 36.5% ground balls - his career rate is 50%. nearly 42% of his hits are fly balls.

Joe's hitting the ball hard. His hard hit percentage is at 36.5%. Career is at 33.3%. His average exit velocity ain't Sano's, but it is 89.9 mph - good for 60th in the league.

Joe's insane plate discipline is insaner. He's swinging at 19% of pitches out of zone (league average 29.1%)

he's hitting 88.6% of the out-of-zone pitches he hits (league average 62.5%)

for in-zone, he's swinging at 47.5% and hitting 97.7%!! League average is 66.7% swinging and 85.5% contact.

It's all very weird that he's not getting results. My prediction: huge month of May.

340/380/450/830

Mike Sixel · May 1, 2017

Thanks for the hope, Mike!

Hope all is well with the practice.

Oldgoat_MN · May 1, 2017

While I think your prediction for May is wildly optimistic, his BABIP over the last two years is slightly above .305. His BABIP is currently sitting at .243 for 2017. I don't think those lazy fly balls to the LF are going to start falling, but he's doing too many things right not to have his numbers improve.

Go Joe!

bizaff · May 1, 2017

I've seen a few things that give me hope, maybe it's trying to be too optimistic.

In the last week there's been 2 hard hit balls pulled to right field. If he can keep doing that, the outfield will have to spread out again and more of his line (ish) drives to left-center will drop.

He also hit a hot grounder to the 1st base side of second base through a hole there. If he can keep adjusting to the fielding adjustments, he may at least head in the right direction.

yarnivek1972 · May 1, 2017

Actually, it isn't surprising at all that a guy who is swinging at less than half of the pitches thrown to him in the strike zone is struggling. A guy who falls behind in the count is going to have to hit a pitcher's pitch. Sure, Mauer still has good enough hand eye coordination to make contact and even to put a good swing on a good chunk of them. But when you are forced into swinging at that pitcher's pitch you are playing into his hands. As a result, a batter is more apt to hit the ball into a shift. True great hitters aren't as predictable as Mauer. He showed some unpredictability in his last few games and, surprise surprise, got results.

TheLeviathan · May 1, 2017

A title like this and not even one reference to how devilishly handsome he is?

Tsk, tsk....

D. Hocking · May 1, 2017

In the last week there's been 2 hard hit balls pulled to right field. If he can keep doing that, the outfield will have to spread out again and more of his line (ish) drives to left-center will drop.

I heard them say that equaled the number of balls hit to right field the previous two seasons. If he can do that even occasionally, it will help deflate some of the effectiveness of the split.

On another homer type not - his defense is not looking too shabby.

Riverbrian · May 1, 2017

I've seen him pull a couple of balls ito RF n the air and that gives me hope.

If he can turn on a few more balls and force the other team to get out of that heavy shift to left field as a result.... We could see a glimpse of the Ole Joe.

Joe still has the sweet swing and plate discipline to be one of the best. However... if he still continues to fly to left and ground to right... like he is stuck in some hopeless pattern....We won't see the old Joe back.

notoriousgod71 · May 1, 2017

Joe's numbers are bad this year. There's no sugar coating it. But, as a true believer, I always find ways to believe in Joe. Here's 2017's version.

Joe's hitting more fly balls. This is one of the first stats to stabilize (no complaints about small sample sizes). This is very good if they aren't pop-ups. Right now, he's hitting 36.5% ground balls - his career rate is 50%. nearly 42% of his hits are fly balls.

Joe's hitting the ball hard. His hard hit percentage is at 36.5%. Career is at 33.3%. His average exit velocity ain't Sano's, but it is 89.9 mph - good for 60th in the league.

Joe's insane plate discipline is insaner. He's swinging at 19% of pitches out of zone (league average 29.1%)
he's hitting 88.6% of the out-of-zone pitches he hits (league average 62.5%)

for in-zone, he's swinging at 47.5% and hitting 97.7%!! League average is 66.7% swinging and 85.5% contact.

It's all very weird that he's not getting results. My prediction: huge month of May.
340/380/450/830

The concerning part is that .830 OPS would be considered a huge month, although I find it difficult to believe his OBP would only be 40 points higher than his BA if he batted .340.

Brock Beauchamp · May 1, 2017

The concerning part is that .830 OPS would be considered a huge month, although I find it difficult to believe his OBP would only be 40 points higher than his BA if he batted .340.

Going from memory, that's actually pretty common from Joe. When he gets rolling, he stops walking.

I think most hitters kinda do that, now that I think of it.

Thrylos · May 1, 2017

Wrote this on the subject about a week ago:

Is Twins' 1B Joe Mauer about to have a breakthrough season?

No need to repeat the same arguments, here, but several signs point to yes.

Otto von Ballpark · May 1, 2017

By Statcast, Joe does indeed appear to have been unlucky so far:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/4/29/15478698/statcast-xwoba-gap-woba-luck-leaderboard-manny-machado-bryce-harper-eric-thames

Of course, some of those guys on the bad luck list might just be poor hitters at this point in their careers...

Note that Aaron Hicks is among the luckiest hitters so far by Statcast data.

Mike Frasier Law · May 2, 2017

Wrote this on the subject about a week ago:

Is Twins' 1B Joe Mauer about to have a breakthrough season?

No need to repeat the same arguments, here, but several signs point to yes.

By Statcast, Joe does indeed appear to have been unlucky so far:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/4/29/15478698/statcast-xwoba-gap-woba-luck-leaderboard-manny-machado-bryce-harper-eric-thames

Of course, some of those guys on the bad luck list might just be poor hitters at this point in their careers...

Note that Aaron Hicks is among the luckiest hitters so far by Statcast data.

So I'm not the only one, eh? Let's hope his luck catches up with his line drives

Tibs · May 3, 2017

Yeah he's definitely a good looking dude

Oh yeah baseball stuff

Mike Frasier Law · May 8, 2017

One week in - how's my prediction?

I predicted 340/380/450/830

actual 313/450/688/1138

Oldgoat_MN · May 8, 2017

One week in - how's my prediction?

I predicted 340/380/450/830
actual 313/450/688/1138

Clearly you are a pessimist.

I don't know why you Mauer haters always undersell him!

P.S. please ignore comment #3.

Mike Frasier Law · May 21, 2017

Three weeks in. How is joe doing?

I predicted 340/380/450/830

Actual 319/407/489/896

Oxtung · May 21, 2017

Look at the great insight that the new technology installed in stadiums can bring to the table. I sure wish more of it was available to the public. I think the fielding data in particular could really revolutionize our understanding of the game. What good defense is has always been a bit nebulous. It would really help the quest to consolidate a players overall value into one statistic.

We need more analysis like yours, Mike, on this site.

Darius · May 22, 2017

Nice prediction.

Now, just imagine if he could burn a few of those huge OF shifts, and force teams to respect right field and play him more straight up.

I think that's where jumping on the first pitch could do him some good, when they're just trying to get ahead. Once they get ahead, they pick at that outer half and try to get him to go into the shift.

I'm sure thats a revolutionary idea that Joe has never considered or been thought of in the past.

Mike Frasier Law · June 1, 2017

Well, I predicted a huge May, but I missed the mark.

I predicted 340/380/450/830

Actual: 346/442/531/983

My prediction was based on some crazy good peripherals. Have they changed much?

STAT APRIL MAY CAREER LEAGUE AVERAGE

GB% 36.5% 50.8% 50% 44.5%

hardhit% 36.5% 35.4% 33.3% 31.9%

Exit Velo. 89.9mph 91.9

Oswing% 19% 20.1% 22% 29.2%

ocontact% 88.6% 73.3% 76.8% 62.7%

zswing% 47.5% 47.5% 55.1% 66.5%

zcontact% 97.7% 94.3% 92.2% 85.5%

Interestingly, it looks like he's regressed a little in May, but the results are way better.

He's hitting the ball harder, but also hitting more ground balls. His ground ball percentage is the only one worse than league average. His exit velocity is 47th overall (Sano is at an easy 100.0mph).

My guess for June:

325/390/455/845

spinowner · June 1, 2017

You should have stopped off in Vegas on May 1 and found a sports book somewhere that would have taken you up on your prediction. Not too late for June, I suppose.

PopRiveter · June 1, 2017

It's all very weird that he's not getting results. My prediction: huge month of May.
340/380/450/830

I'm impressed. You made a pretty bold prediction based on really sound logic, and nailed it.

You're hired.

Looking at the numbers you posted, it seems to indicate he maybe swung a tad harder in May, but mostly just trusted his approach and it paid off.

DaveW · June 2, 2017

Man, if he can keep this up (maybe not at this pace) but end the season above a .840 OPS, I think that almost guarantees his place in the hall of fame.

Mike Sixel · June 2, 2017

He looked so EXCITED after the triple play!*

*note, I don't care, but it seemed funny to me for some reason.

Linus · June 3, 2017

Seems appropriate to note Joe's night. 4-5 with a homer. I'm starting to believe he is a different hitter.

jimbo92107 · June 3, 2017

Joe Mauer is playing gold glove defense at first base, and he has raised his season average to .294 with a scorching hot May. This is the closest we've seen to a fully healthy Mauer in several years. He looks confident and strong at the plate. Yay!

Darius · June 3, 2017

The last month has been vintage Joe Mauer. If he can keep hitting this way, it could end up being one of the better seasons of his career.

That makes this a scary lineup, potentially. It's not out of the question for Dozier and Buxton to get hot like they did last year. Throw that in a lineup with the current production of Mauer, Sano, and Kepler....toss in a steady .250-.260 with pop from Rosario and Polanco....and that's pretty ridiculous.

USAFChief · June 3, 2017

Great production from Mauer in recent weeks. It's great to see and I hope he keeps it up. This kind of Mauer really helps the lineup.

I'm surprised, but glad to be. I hope to be flabbergasted by season's end.

Squirrel · June 3, 2017

Seems appropriate to note Joe's night. 4-5 with a homer. I'm starting to believe he is a different hitter.

I'm starting to believe that maybe it really was concussion issues and he's finally through to the other side. But I'll revisit at the end of the season. That said, he's really quite the first baseman. His defense has really carried the youngsters over on the left side of the infield.

Squirrel · June 3, 2017

Great production from Mauer in recent weeks. It's great to see and I hope he keeps it up. This kind of Mauer really helps the lineup.
I'm surprised, but glad to be. I hope to be flabbergasted by season's end.

I hope you are flabbergasted at end of season, too!

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