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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. There is no more august revocable waiver wire trade period anymore if that is what you’re referring to. Pineda will be with the Twins for the rest off the year.
  2. It's always interesting to see another perspective on the home town team so thanks for posting that, however, if you read the comments they are .... not enthusiastic .... about the Yanks trading for any of the Twins players. Obviously fans opinions have nothing to do with what discussions or actions the FO takes but it is interesting to see that Yankees fans are perhaps even more down on their team than Twins fans are.
  3. Personally I think you're undervaluing Donaldson based on your criteria laid out in the preview article. If your overall goal is to is to answer the question, I'm not sure how that happens without JD being a powerhouse at the plate and in the field. On the other hand if your trying to answer who has the most trade value, then clearly Donaldson has no value due to the definition of "highest bidder."
  4. It always fascinates me when fans talk about bringing back players who have hit FA. My recollection is that this happens very infrequently. I'm curious what people think are the chances he returns? Personally, I would give it <5% chance that he returns to the Twins. What say you?
  5. Mid rotation starters are not “win now” moves, no matter how you try to spin it. If that’s what you wanted the Twins needed to dangle more than an apparently injured Graterol. True win now moves bring back premium, season changing talent. See Dodgers, Betts if you’re curious. No, this trade is simply the Twins saying they prefer Maeda to Graterol. I think that is short sighted and not likely to end well.
  6. I think in 2020 Maeda is the better player. 2021 I think Graterol and Maeda are likely to be similar in value and after that I think Graterol will be the better player. I don’t understand people’s optimism in a mediocre pitcher whose workload will need to increase and will be turning 35 before the contract is up. I get his contract has value but you know what has more value? Producing positive WAR in years 3-6 of Graterol contract. Additionally another extension is off the table unless someone is interested in locking up Maeda into his late 30s. Personally, unless Graterol medical are so poor that he is unlikely to hold up as even a reliever, I think the Twins made a poor decision today. Ultimately this is a consequence of not signing a top of the rotation starter this offseason.
  7. You seem to be saying that filling 4/5 spots in a rotation is hard and we don't want to hand the young guys the spots because then we'd have no depth, which I agree with. However, this is Falvey/Levine's fourth offseason with the Twins so isn't this their doing? They chose not to acquire pitchers previously when there were opportunities and that has directly led to the dilemma they found themselves in this offseason. Personally, I don't think they deserve credit for "setting a floor" when they could have done this in previous years letting them shoot for the ceiling this offseason. Also, there was enough payroll space to sign Cole, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill and Romo. If they chose to go with Cole, Berrios and young guys, that would have been on them.
  8. Appreciate the response. If the Twins sign Donaldson their payroll would be ~$140MM this year, which they seem willing to take on. If the Twins signed, Cole, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill and Romo it would be ~$140MM too. I don't want to restart the "They should have signed one of the top 5 pitchers" argument again, rather my point is if the Twins wanted to they had the money to sign anybody this offseason and still fill out the rotation to add the absolutely necessary depth you point out. I think my problem with your definition is two-fold. First, I am not as optimistic as you that Odorizzi, Pineda and Bailey will be above average pitchers. I would guess one will be above average, one will be averageish and one will be below average. Second, given the state of the rest of the Twins, impact pitching to me means "matches up well against other starting pitchers in game 1 of a playoff series" which none of these signings do, IMO. Playoff teams best starting pitchers in 2019: Strasburg/Scherzer Cole/Verlander Buehler/Kershaw/Ryu Flaherty Severino Woodruff Morton/Glasnow Kuechel Manaea I look at that list and to me Berrios and/or Odorrizzi match up with Kuechel and Manaea. Everyone else is at least 1 step better. Some are 2 complete steps better. That's why I viewed "Impact Pitching" as one of those top guys.
  9. While there isn't enough money involved to be a problem, I am not a fan of this extension. They already had him under control for 2 more seasons at a discounted and non-guaranteed rate. Did we really need 30 year old DH Sano? Sano is essentially a 2-3 WAR player moving forward (assuming they move him to 1B or DH and/or his defense doesn't improve at 3B). Those players are available every off season for cheap like Thames who signed for 2 years $6 million and can provide similar production. This contract certainly isn't terrible and is by no means crippling, but I don't really see the advantage of it either. Unless Sano considerably improves some part of his game 3 years and $30MM isn't really a bargain, so why lock yourself in?
  10. You’re right, I (and I’d guess many others) disagree with you but in the interest of understanding your point of view better how do you define “impact pitching”? Is it a single one of those pitchers? Is it the cumulative effect of the 4 starters? Is there an ERA they must be better than? Help those of us who don’t agree understand your point of view better. FYI, this isn’t just to tarheeltwinsfan, if you consider the Twins to have signed impact pitching please explain how you define it and how the Twins met that bar.
  11. I’ve never understood people who think insulting others is the same as winning arguments.
  12. I fundamentally disagree with the premise of this article. If I buy a new car and 2 years down the road a hailstorm totals it, does that mean my decision to buy the car was a bad one? If I get undergo chemo and the following year die of a heart attack, does that mean I shouldn't have gotten chemo? If I buy an apple at the grocery store and my neighbor comes over later to give me an apple from the tree in their back yard does that mean I shouldn't have bought the one at the store? The answer to all these, and the premise of your article, is no. You judge decisions based on the evidence that is at hand when the decision was made. Sometimes bad things happen but that doesn't mean it was a bad decision. Until we can predict the future, judging decisions on hindsight is not logical.
  13. No it's not, but I did miss where Musk21 said it in an earlier comment. Edit: Fixed Musk21's name.
  14. Great response. I hadn't realized how good the league was hitting the last few years. If Rosario has a similar year in 2020 and one of Cave, Wade, Larnach or Kirilloff have a big year I wouldn't be surprised if Rosario is non-tendered. Why pay ~$15M when you can get very similar production for $0.5?
  15. I love the idea but I don't think the A's return your call with that package. From a "surplus value" perspective... Chapman: Conservative Average WAR: 4 Aggressive Average WAR: 6 Years Control: 4 Expected Arbitration $: 50M Cnsv. Surplus Value: $112M Aggr Surplus Value: $200M Lewis: Fangraphs Rating: 60 Avg 60 Surplus Val: $61M Thorpe: FG Rating: 45 Avg Srpls Val: $10.5M Rooker: FG Rating: 40 Avg Srpls Val: $4.5M Values: Chapman: $112M - $200M Twins: $76M Other Twin Values Kirilloff/Larnach/Graterol/Balazovich/Duran: FG Rating: 50 Avg Surplus Value: $26M Obviously what the A's think of Chapman and the Twins prospects is really the key here, but I think this shows in a general sense that Chapman is a stud with many years of control left and that is an incredibly valuable thing. I'm not even convinced they would accept a package of Lewis, and three of Kirilloff, Larnach, Graterol, Balazovich, Duran. From a surplus value perspective that would put the Twins at about $130M. IMO, there is no way the Twins do that even if the A's would. So as much as I like this idea I just don't see a way it happens.
  16. I think I'd inquire on Taillon. He is recovering from TJ and will miss all of 2020 but he is controlled through the 2022 season. Potential #2 starter for a couple of years and might be available relatively cheaply since he is out an entire year with TJ.
  17. Did the Twins sign an all-star 2B and I didn't notice ...? Yes, Arraez had a great year in 2019, but there are some serious question marks too. Unsustainable BABIP, no power and poor defense does not lead to confidence he'll be starting in 5 years. Personally, I would have traded him if there were any serious offers this offseason. I think 2019 was his high point.
  18. I think you guys are both missing Polanco and Kepler which are now guaranteed contracts, I believe. That puts you closer to $80M for 2020 and $21M for 2021 in guaranteed money. Also, for the second time, that wasn't my position. Please stop implying this.
  19. None? At least not in a large sense. These stats measure how a team does at home and compares it to how they do on the road. So it is apples to apples. You could go look at exactly the splits on who the Twins played at home versus who they played on the road and try and do some analysis. I suspect over the course of 81 games they are pretty similar in aggregate. Especially if you look at Park Effects as trends over multiple years.
  20. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
  21. I also don't think Gray and Ray are particularly available right now for your stated reasoning.
  22. Please go back and re-read what I wrote read. The very next sentence which you opted not to quote was: EDIT: replaced "read" with "wrote"
  23. I think it'd be pretty close and I think it would really depend on the team inquiring. A team that is cash strapped, like the Rays or A's, might very well prefer the controlability of Cave or Wade. Rosario was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball last year according to statcast and he's not much better by other metrics. That significantly erodes his offensive value. On top of that he is no longer cheap and all of a sudden he doesn't have much trade value.
  24. What "peripherals" are you looking at that makes Alcantara the "only" option compared to Gray and Ray?
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