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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    The Statcast data does not support this assertion. Adrianza is one of the weakest hitters in baseball. Exit Velocity, % of balls hit 95+ mph, and Barrels per BBE all suggest he will never be an average hitter over a full season. Since he's already 28 it's not even like he's young and could grow into some power at this point. He is just fine as a utility infielder.
  2. Oxtung
    If the Twins know Sano is suspended before opening day then I would guess Adrianna at SS, Escobar at 3B and Aybar at utility. Though personally I’d rather Gordon get a run at SS until Sano returns. If the Twins don’t know I think they still keep Aybar as insurance and start Escobar at SS with Adrianza getting time there too. I sure hope they don’t start Adrianza much though. He isn’t a starting caliber player even due to injury, imo. Does anyone know how this affects Polancos pay this year or his service time?
  3. Oxtung
    I'm hoping they pitch him in the 1st game of the Cleveland series because that would also make him the starter for the Twins home opener, which I'm going to!
  4. Oxtung
    He struggled in his last three games, innings 111-125, which isn't too surprising since his previous high was 90 innings pitched. Before he got tired, he was the most dominant starting pitcher in the Twins organization above Elizabethton. 111IP 2.60ERA 3.3BB/9 9.3K/9 3HR .631OPS 54%GB .316BABIP An elite ground ball rate, an above average strikeout rate and he threw more innings than Gonsalves last year. Those numbers are right in line with what he threw in rookie ball, low A and high A, too. In addition the scouting reports agree he has front of the rotation potential, which nobody else has in the organization, excluding Graterol. Maybe he isn't ready for the Twins yet, I can accept that. I don't get why he is starting at AA though. Nobody has his combination of stuff, stats and scouting. Not Gonsalves, Slegers, Jorge. Certainly not Jaye or Enns. The Twins have worked hard to rebuild their pitching depth, they aren't going to bypass the guys at AAA to dip down for Romero. By starting him at AA it means he is behind most of the AAA starters on the depth chart currently. That is wrong. Bruce Wayne doesn't take the Toyota Corolla to the party when the Lamborghini is ready to go.
  5. Oxtung
    Could and Will are two entirely different things. Sure they could, but they won't. It is clear he is far down the hierarchy for 2018. Which is a shame since he is the only one with a chance to be a true difference maker for this club.
  6. Oxtung
    I don't get the Romero placement. He threw 125 innings last year at AA and was the best pitcher there outside of his last 3 starts where he was pushing well past his previous innings limit. To me it is just another indication that this FO doesn't value high upside as much as they do stability. That is very disappointing to me.
  7. Oxtung
    Cobb has lost his splitter which was his best pitch by far. His swinging strike rate went from 21% to 12% and his SLG% against went from .252 to .514 on his splitter with a similar increase in BA. Because of this he threw it about half as often in 2017. As such I don't think what he did in 2014 has any bearing on what happens in 2018 for Alex Cobb. He is a totally different pitcher post TJ.
  8. Oxtung
    Here is the last 10 years of deals to 2B with more than $30 million in total value: Player / Age / Years / Total $millions 2017-2018 2016-2017 2015-2016 Daniel Murphy / 31 / 3 / $37.5 Ben Zobrist / 35 / 4 / $56 2014-2015 2013-2014 Robinson Cano / 31 / 10 / $240 Omar Infante / 32 / 4 / $30 2012-2013 2011-2012 2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009 Rafael Furcal / 31 / 3 / $30 In the history of baseball there has only been one deal worth more than $60 million dollars that has gone to a second baseman and he was a top 5 player in all of baseball. This isn't to say that Dozier can't get a big deal or even that he won't break $60 million but he will be facing some long odds to do it.
  9. Oxtung
    Why?
  10. Oxtung
    I think another thing overlooked here is that MLB in general doesn't seem to value the 2B position. There have been very few multi-year contracts handed out to players at 2B. Look at Dozier's supposed trade value last offseason. Look at the trouble Neil Walker is having this offseason; teams are apparently offering minor league deals!
  11. Oxtung
    Justin Turner seems to be a good comp for Dozier, IMO. If you compare Dozier's last 3 seasons and Turner's 3 before he signed his extension... Stat Dozer/Turner b-WAR 13.4/13.1 fWAR 14.2/12.7 OPS+ 122/135 PA 2100/1383 Dozier has been healthier and that shows in the PA's but Turner has been a better hitter and that equals things out quite a bit. Also Turner had 622 PA's and played in 151 games just prior to signing his extension so I'm not sure how much that affected his value. They are/were both 32 years old going into their new contracts. They both also play non-premium defensive positions. I can't see Dozier getting more than $60-$80 million.
  12. Oxtung
    While Dozier probably does have some value and the Twins will probably lose some fans if they lose Dozier, those loses are dwarfed by the affect the Twins win-loss record has on team revenue. The difference is so great that the Twins won't even consider Dozier's direct effect on attendance/merchandise sales. Instead they will move forward with those players that will help the Twins win the most games. In the end it's all about the "W". Just win baby! Just win!
  13. Oxtung
    Many people have claimed the Twins won't need a #5 starter early in the season which I just don't get. When you look at the schedule the Twins will need a fifth starter four times in the first six weeks. Even that is assuming they want to skip the fifth starter. Last season they could have skipped the fifth starter the first two times through the rotation and instead let the rookie Mejia take the mound.
  14. Oxtung
    Do you think the team doctor is significantly better with the Twins than Rochester? Why can't they monitor his innings in Rochester? Similarly, how does being in the bullpen make them better able to monitor his innings? I would think it would be harder since he'd be getting up and down much more often and even multiple times in a day. Moving to the bullpen didn't work out very well for May. Now that is a sample size of one, but since Romero is literally the best chance, some might say only chance given the FO's actions this offseason, of becoming our front line pitcher I'm inclined to be exceedingly careful with him.
  15. Oxtung
    You can find next seasons FA's here. I'm not as confident as many seem to be that removing Dozier's bat from the lineup will have little effect on run scoring. The drop from him to Gordon will likely be significant.
  16. Oxtung
    You took his 100th percentile outcome and tried to make that his baseline. Then using that baseline laid out numbers that are enormous. Even then it's equally likely that he runs into the outfield wall and tears all the tendons in his knee and dislocates his knee cap. He loses all his speed and has to shift to an outfield corner where his bat never develops beyond a ~.700 OPS and he is a sub-replacement level player. That's his 1 percentile outcome. The most likely outcome is somewhere in between. I've listed 3 recent players I felt had similar comps and they all got around $20 million going through the arbitration process. There are many players of that caliber that decide to go down the extension route for whatever reason.
  17. Oxtung
    I hope that isn't the route they take. He is our only likely option for a potential front of the rotation pitcher in the next several years. He already has had arm trouble. I'm not sure how much your plan increases the risk of arm injury but any increase is too much for my tastes, in this particular case.
  18. Oxtung
    I'm a bit on the fence but I'm leaning towards disagreeing with your second point. Presumably any rookie would be up with the intention of being sent back down when Santana returns. That leads to four likely outcomes. First, Romero is pitching poorly and when Santana returns and he is sent back to the minors. This extends his service time another year. Second, Romero is pitching ok but is still sent down when Santana returns thus extending his control. Third, Romero is pitching phenomenally and another pitcher leaves the rotation instead. He could still be sent down at a later point in time or even in a future season to regain that seventh year of control. Fourth, Romero gets injured and accrues MLB service time. If it is a short term injury then the first three outcomes still apply. If it is a major injury then the likelihood of Romero being the impact pitcher we are all hoping for is greatly reduced making the concern over service time, not moot, but certainly lessened. The only scenario where service time is lost is if he is pitching amazing in which case, I'm glad they brought him up anyways. The Twins are in contention and the time is now!
  19. Oxtung
    If you believe there is no real chance a rookie makes the rotation when the Twins head north that makes sense. EDIT- Which, by the way, I agree that no rookie will break camp in the rotation.
  20. Oxtung
    You're misunderstanding my point. I get why he would be behind all the veterans. I get the service time issue. I even understand your point about injury. But all those apply to Slegers, Gonsalves, Enns, Littell, and Jorge too. You, and people in other posts as well, singled out Romero specifically. That is the part I don't understand.
  21. Oxtung
    I've seen many people make similar comments in other threads and I don't understand this sentiment. Or at least I don't understand why Romero is getting singled out. Everything I've read says he has the best stuff in the organization, Graterol excluded. He was absolutely dominant last season at AA until he got tired in his last couple of starts. If he is firing on all cylinders again why would any other rookie stand between him and a rotation spot?
  22. Oxtung
    You mean how Mauer went on to 3 All Star games? Or finishing top 10 in MVP voting the season after he signed the contract? Or the Gold Gloves? Or his 120 OPS+? Sure we all wish Mauer never had his concussion or been forced out from behind the plate but let's not suggest that he or his contract has been any kind of hindrance to the Minnesota Twins. If Brian Dozier was that successful we would all be jumping for joy over the next several years.
  23. Oxtung
    Well I've always been known as an optimistic one!
  24. Oxtung
    Here is the list of next years 2B FA's: Jose Altuve (29) — $6.5MM club option Asdrubal Cabrera (33) Daniel Descalso (32) Brian Dozier (32) Logan Forsythe (32) Marwin Gonzalez (30) Josh Harrison (31) — $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Ian Kinsler (37) DJ LeMahieu (30) Jed Lowrie (35) Daniel Murphy (34) Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $4MM player option with a $2MM buyout Jose Reyes (36) Sean Rodriguez (34) There are some good options there. Kinsler, Murphy and Forsythe could be in the same tier as Dozier next season. In addition there are couple players that might be available on a one year deal only a step down from Dozier. I like JHarldson's idea above. It would essentially be a 4 year $60 million deal. I would rather the Twins go for a big time pitcher but I think this offseason showed that isn't going to happen so we should upgrade where we can and this seems reasonable.
  25. Oxtung
    The chances of any of this coming to pass are incredibly small but if they do I think the Twins "make a competitive offer" for his services and then shake their head and look back over the last few years and enjoy the back to back World Series the Twins have won and the multiple MVP awards Buxton raked in to go along with his gold gloves.
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