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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    It has happened, but let's not pretend it is common. Here is the World Series pitchers (winners and losers) average starting rotation over the last decade broken up by where they fell in the rotation: Starter - ERA 1- 2.94 2- 3.14 3- 3.33 4- 3.67 5- 4.17 So you're right, it has happened. 2011 St. Louis had Carpenter with a 3.45 ERA and 2015 Royals had Volquez with a 3.55 ERA. But the average rotation has 3 pitchers clearly better than Berrios. We can't get 1 apparently.
  2. Oxtung
    They have had some successes this season with Duffey, Rogers, Littell, and Odo but there have been some pretty big meltdowns as well with Perez, Parker, Hildenberger, Mejia, and Romero. There are also a bunch of pitchers who pretty much were what they always have been too, Magill, Pineda, Berrios, etc... To me this year looks like a normal year. Some pitchers step up, some plateau, some fall. Why do you expect whoever comes here to only improve?
  3. Oxtung
    At what point do we come to understand that there is no such thing as "durable" in baseball? You're only "durable" until you're not. Ervin Santana, Nolasco, CC Sabathia, and a bunch of other pitchers were once considered "durable" too. Past experience is not a predictor of future success when it comes to "durability".
  4. Oxtung
    I think you’re reading that wrong Mike and your original interpretation was correct, they do have 3 seasons left after this one. They are FA after the 2021 season, a.k.a. going into the 2022 season. For instance BR lists Mauer as a FA in 2019 even though 2018 is clearly his last year.
  5. Oxtung
    IMO catchers are too prone to injury and need to many days off to pay big for them. I’d rather have a good defensive catcher with a weaker bat that is cheaper to acquire and invest those resources elsewhere.
  6. Oxtung
    Why would he want his option activated? That makes it less likely he will get back to the Twins and he makes less money. Regardless, even if he comes off the d/l and isn’t ready to start he should still go to the bullpen rather than AAA. Relief pitchers can get away with less control than starters.
  7. Oxtung
    There is a lot of wiggle room in these kinds of things. They kept Hughes at AAA for a month to begin the year for Christ’s sake.
  8. Oxtung
    If he isn't ready to pitch he shouldn't have come off the DL. If he is ready then there is no point in returning him to AAA. Let's walk your hypothetical through a bit. It's now July 20th, the first day after the All-Star break. There are 81 games left to play and the Twins now have Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Romero, Odorizzi and Lynn who have all spent significant time in MLB this season. At least one of them will be hurt/ineffective, perhaps two so let's say they need to call up one starting pitcher from AAA in addition to the aforementioned players. Players with previous MLB experience: Mejia Slegers Jorge May MiLB players with future rotation potential: Gonsalves Littell Thorpe Everybody's ranking of those players will be different and I think we can all agree that on July 20th May will have a better chance of being successful than some of those pitchers. However, how big a gap is there between May and say Gonsalves, Mejia or Slegers? Is that gap worth wasting two months of a potentially back of the bullpen option? Do you want to prevent a younger player from gaining experience that might help them in future years?
  9. Oxtung
    It makes no sense to send May back to AAA at this point. Either he is good enough to make the rotation now, or he needs to move to the bullpen. He isn't young anymore; he is in his prime right now. In addition the Rochester and Chattanooga rosters have a glut of starting pitchers ready to fill in the Twins rotation who are younger and at this point have more long term upside. Gonsalves, Mejia, Jorge, Littel, Slegers, Stewart and Thorpe are both capable and soon are going to need opportunities to show if they belong in MLB. If you send May back to AAA it just clouds the long term plans and wastes one of his prime years. Besides, this bullpen needs as much help as it can get.
  10. Oxtung
    I've heard Dr. Mero hands out RO like candy.
  11. Oxtung
    I question the Cave trade. Given the Twins young outfield, their depth with Grossman, Granite and Wade with Rooker right behind, I don't see the value in adding another ok but not great OF prospect. Now the pitcher they gave up is very far away but he seemed to have some real upside potential. That said, now that the trade is done I agree with your other points. The only conclusion I've come to is the Twins think the high BA, OBP with low ISO profile isn't particularly valuable as evidenced by trading for Cave to essentialy replace Wade, starting Wade again at AA, showing no interest in re-signing Mauer and replacing Grossman in the starting DH spot.
  12. Oxtung
    I think you mean best case scenario though that would take a mighty turnaround in a short period of time in which case it isn't at all clear the Twins will want to move Lynn. Regardless your point about having too much good pitching is a good thing (hopefully we aren't far from that).
  13. Oxtung
    After watching a bit of the replay on TV he seemed to leave quite a few pitches over the heart of the plate that Toronto just couldn't handle or hit right at somebody. So, silver lining he has stuff that, at least for one game, was hard to square up. Not so silver lining, eventually somebody will square those balls up. Take your pick of interpretation. On an unrelated note, this start was why I wanted him to start at AAA. He clearly has a great fastball and his slider has real bite to it. I sure hope his changeup continues to develop.
  14. Oxtung
    Who are the 30 year old nobodies you’re referring to this year? While we have some veterans struggling none were nobodies.
  15. Oxtung
    That just simply isn't true according to Sanchez statcast page. His average exit velocity on pitches in similar locations, inside and on the hands, was 86-89 mph well below his average exit velocity. In fact Sanchez has average exit velocities up to 100 mph on pitches in the zone. Could that pitch have been better placed, sure. Was it "definitely not a good pitch". No. Was it "right in his wheel house"? The statistical evidence doesn't support your claim.
  16. Oxtung
    I think a better defender at 3rd or SS makes the Stanton play but even if he doesn't that still doesn't mean Rodney is to blame. Sometimes you make a bad pitch and it's gets crushed. That is clearly on the pitcher. Sometimes you make a great pitch and the hitter still puts it in play. That is what we saw in the 9th inning. These are professional hitters out there and what's more, these are some of the best of those professionals. They are going to hit balls they shouldn't. When it happens you have to tip your cap to them. Well played Stanton and Sanchez. Well played.
  17. Oxtung
    He did. He got 2 outs in fact. He can't control the defense on the field behind him. The fact that the Twins have a sub-par defense doesn't change the fact that he pitched really damn well.
  18. Oxtung
    For those upset with Rodney today what exactly would you like him to do? Today he got 2 infield ground balls which his defense couldn't convert for him. Then on an 0-1 pitch that was 5 inches inside Sanchez turns on it and smashes it to left field. The pitch wasn't a bad pitch. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other team and say, "Good game."
  19. Oxtung
    The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence. So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.
  20. Oxtung
    I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO. To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.
  21. Oxtung
    I’ll be very surprised if Santana has an ERA+ >100 and pitches more than 100 innings this season.
  22. Oxtung
    I’m not sure if it gets to “likely” because that depends on ones personal definition but there are a lot of red flags for Santana right now. -he’s 35 -out performed his peripherals last couple of years -unsustainable BABIP and strand rates last season -fly ball pitcher in middle of fly ball revolution -his first game action will come against teams in mid-season form -his arm has been heavily used and he will still be playing with a partially torn ligament -coming back from injury (and a fairly major one IMO considering how integral that finger is and how poorly it’s gone so far) Does that get one to likely? Maybe. Maybe not. As I said earlier it depends on ones definition. However let’s not pretend there no “facts or evidence” suggesting it’s possible. Personally, if the choice was Santana or one of the field, I’d take the field.
  23. Oxtung
    We are also talking about a kid that had a .860 OPS through half of the season. It's as if Pedro Florimon and Chris Parmelee never happened.
  24. Oxtung
    In addition when Polanco comes back they'd send Gordon down and the Twins would still get the 7th year of control.
  25. Oxtung
    No, it's about what is best for the Twins both in the short term and long. I think there is a valid argument that Gordon at SS for the Twins is what's best. Especially if Sano is suspended at some point.
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