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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    I'm not arguing that Dozier shouldn't be traded. I'm pushing back on the perception that the Twins future hinges on this trade being made immediately or they are doomed because his value will fall. Or the idea that the Twins pitching will be solved if only they can get an ace out of this deal. Regardless of what happens with this trade, the future of the Twins rotation hinges on the prospects already within the Twins system. They are going to fix this rotation. Even if De Leon becomes an Ace he is still just the cherry on the top.
  2. Oxtung
    I think you and I are actually in agreement. Specifically if the Twins can get someone that is a mid-rotation starter with a good chance to be more of course they should make that trade. My point was I have no interest in bringing in MLB ready pitchers whose upside is a mid-rotation starter just because they are ready now (or soon). Pitchers rarely reach their upside and when they don't having another 4/5 does absolutely nothing to help the Twins towards contention.
  3. Oxtung
    First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere. That could be improvements from some guys, it could be more trades or even FAs coming in but this one trade, no matter how important it seems in this moment, isn't going to make or break the Minnesota Twins future regardless of what happens with Dozier. I think it's easy to lose the bigger picture and to believe this trade is the all important one when in fact we are only looking at 3 more wins per year in the future even if De Leon pans out. We still need 30 more from somewhere else. Twinsfan&Dad this reply isn't really directed at you it just seemed to piggy back off your thoughts.
  4. Oxtung
    I don't think anyone believes we currently are chock full of 3/4 types but the Twins do have Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, Mejia, rule 5 guy all around for several more seasons. In addition they also have Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and Jorge 1-2 years out. After that they have guys like Romero and Thorpe 2-3 years out. That's 14 starting pitchers that will need innings to show what they are capable of in the next few years. That also doesn't include any veterans they might want to bring in for leadership or on one year deals to recoup value with an eye towards flipping. Some of those guys will not pan out but the Twins won't know who until they invest the innings to find out. I think bringing back mid rotation guys just further muddies the water; it's just another mediocre pitcher to determine if they can sink or swim in MLB.
  5. Oxtung
    My read here is that the Twins don't like the current offer on the table from the Dodgers and are "leaking" information hoping to drive up the Dodger return. I think they have probably had some preliminary discussions with the Cardinals/Giants/Nats but they didn't go far because there really isn't a great fit with any of these teams but it is still accurate to say they have "shown interest". Personally I think the Twins leverage lies in just carrying Dozier into the season and looking to move him at a future point. I don't think teams are particularly fooled by the 42 HRs and so even if he reverts back to a.750ish OPS the potential returns will be less but not drastically so. On the other hand if he starts 2017 with a .900 OPS it might increase confidence that this truely is an increase in his baseline talent level.
  6. Oxtung
    The really scary thing is they could still trade Quintana, Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Robertson, etc... Think about what kind of haul they could bring back if they wanted to go full on tear down.
  7. Oxtung
    2016 stats: Mean: 92.1 mph Median: 91.7 mph
  8. Oxtung
    You call up the Twins and during the discussion Falvey let's slip the Yankees are interested too. You pick up the newspaper and Cashman is flat denying that they have even talked to the Twins. Who do you believe? They both have a vested interest in their story being the "true" story. I can even image a scenario where Doziers agent himself leaked the "4 teams interested" to draw national attention to his client because Brian wants to be traded to a contender. I don't think anything about this time of year is clear cut. To support this there was an interview posted here earlier this week where Gammons and Rosenthal both said Agents and teams try to use them all the time to spread disinformation. That their job mostly is to sift out the truth from the lies.
  9. Oxtung
    Mike the reason the even got to 84 was because of their bullpen and that has now been dismantled. Their starting pitching outside of Tanaka is in shambles and last year their best hitter was Gregorious. I think some of their veterans will bounce back but enough to recover the wins they traded away with Miller and Chapman plus 6 wins to get them to 90? We're talking about an improvement of 10-12 wins just to get the wildcard.
  10. Oxtung
    It's entirely possible, perhaps even probable, that the Yankees aren't in on Dozier given their current duo of MI. However, if I was the Yankees and I knew another team was involved with deep farm system like the Dodgers I'd be denying I was in the market too. All that admitting interest does is create a potential bidding war. They're better off denying it and then trying to sneak in the back door with an offer.
  11. Oxtung
    Maybe the Yankees aren't in play but it did get me thinking a bit. While a young potential Ace starting pitcher is everyone's dream here, there are other possibilities to improving the pitching situation. I'll type this up about the Yankees but it could apply to other teams as well. The Twins could look to trade Dozier for a good all around SS (in this case like Torres/Mateo). In a year or two if/when Gordon is ready you play some combination of Torres, Polanco and Gordon at 2nd/3rd/SS. Move Sano to DH or 1B. Combined with Buxton in CF and Kepler in one of the corners that is one hell of a defense. There is speed and athleticism everywhere across the board. It will also be a pretty cheap lineup freeing up money for another masher at 1B or a corner OF spot. Or alternatively the Twins could go real big on a pitcher. Combine all of that with a good framing catcher and I think there would be a real significant change in the stats of the pitchers. Will that turn a Gibson into an ace? No. Could that defense/catcher drop his ERA to consistently sub 4? Perhaps.
  12. Oxtung
    I fail to see how your sarcasm helps move this discussion forward Brock. Your opinion of what the future will entail has no more validity than mine or any other on this forum. To pretend that you and only you have a justifiable vision of the future is insulting.
  13. Oxtung
    I don't understand the enthusiasm being shown here. The PoBO will still be hired by Pohlad and St. Peter and therefore will follow in the typical Twins baseball mold regardless if hired from within or without.
  14. Oxtung
    Been there done that; Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, Santiago, Milone, Pelfrey, Correia... I'll take the new approach please.
  15. Oxtung
    So the final tally appears to be Departures Nolasco Nunez Abad Meyer Arrivals Santiago Busenitz Pat Light Mejia Pending Suzuki Kinzler Santana So we upgraded the rotation for next season with Santiago, replaced Meyer with Light, got a back of the rotation starter for the long haul and a flier with Busenitz in the bullpen. The only thing we gave up in return that had long term implications is Meyer and that was debatable. I'd say that was a pretty good deadline. Nothing earth shattering but I think the team is improved both in the short and long terms.
  16. Oxtung
    It's also 6 years of Meyer vs 1 year of Santiago (unless the Twins sign him to an extension but that seems unwise). They could always trade him this winter or next trade deadline I guess, in which case it becomes 6 years of Meyer vs whatever they get in return.
  17. Oxtung
    I really enjoyed this episode. The passion on both sides was great. I will say that while I disagree with Johns take he was the more mature in how he handled the discussion. I think Aaron misunderstood some of Johns point though. John if you care to respond to YLTs question above I'd be interested in your response.
  18. Oxtung
    You're definitely right that Garver or Turner could turn out to be starting caliber players yet, however up to this point it doesn't appear to be so. Due to all the injury concerns and watching Mauer be severely affected by catching I've come around to a defense first catcher that is a great pitch framer but doesn't have a big bat. They tend not to be as expensive and the Twins could spend the balance to improve a position less likely to be injured and miss time.
  19. Oxtung
    It's interesting that catcher was once a strong point of the minor league system. Pierzynski, Mauer and Ramos are all starting caliber players but there were also a few backups like Butera. Now however it's so bleak. Just interesting how quickly things can change.
  20. Oxtung
    You seem to be doubling down here. I'm not saying your idea doesn't have merit. You could very possibly be right that the Twins did rush good, but not great prospects like Arcia, Santana, Rosario, etc.... My point is the list you chose does not represent the reality of where the Twins currently are at, nor does it represent the quality of the prospect the Twins have (excluding Buxton and Sano). In addition no solid conclusions can be drawn by looking at just 15 players (especially when those are the best 15 players in the league). So again, I'm not criticizing your idea. I just think we need more data from teams that are in the position the Twins currently find themselves in. In an effort to find more of that data I gathered another 10ish players from the Astros and Cubs as examples. In an effort to put us back on track here I think we need to differentiate by prospect level. Great prospects like Sano, Buxton, Lindor, Correia, Mauer, Harper, Hayward, etc... are treated differently than the Arcia, Rosario, etc... which in turn are treated differently than the marginal guys like Vargas, Santana etc... At least that is my contention.
  21. Oxtung
    I don't think this list tells us much. You are comparing DeLoreans and Lamborghinis here. Yeah they're both "sports cars" but Lamborghini had been in business for 20 years before DeLorean even came along. On top of that the Countach went 0-60 in 4 seconds while the DeLorean took more than 8 seconds. Similarly the Twins are in a very different part of their win cycle than most of the teams above. Does anyone think Santana, Vargas or Arcia would have been called up from AA if this was 2010, the Twins were in contention and they had Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and JJ Hardy playing? Also, half your list are overall top 20 prospects while the Twins only have 3 players that were concensus top 100 players. Perhaps you're right the Twins did rush some of their prospects, though Buxton and Sano were brought up right on time compared to your list, but you'd have to compare them to other teams at a similar point in their rebuild cycles and to similar level prospects. Until then this tells us next to nothing. If anyone is interested here is a Google Sheets Doc where I started comparing them to the Astros and Cubs. If anyone wants to continue this work farther (including finding lower tiered prospects and other rebuilding teams) please feel free.
  22. Oxtung
    We will see if they are this bad long term or not. That's why my last sentence was prefaced by, "..if we end with a terrible record...". I think you're over simplifying things by only comparing to their "career baseline". There was no crystal ball needed to see that Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Dozier, Mauer, Suzuki, Murphy, Park, Arcia, D. Santana, Jepsen, Fien, Perkins, Abad, Hughes, E. Santana and Nolasco all had questions about their ability to contribute this season. I'll grant you that few people thought they all would regress but even if only half of them regressed this would still be a pretty poor team. Again, we'll see if this continues for the season or if there is a bounce back along the way (I think there will be a bounce at some point) but if there isn't Ryan and the FO can't hide behind the words "Nobody saw this coming." There will have to be some accountability.
  23. Oxtung
    1) Players are bad 2) Ryan signed/Drafted these players 3) Ryan is responsible Seems like some pretty straight forward logic to me. I do understand Pohlad not firing him at this point in the season but if we end with a terrible record there better be some serious shakeup happening within the organization at season end.
  24. Oxtung
    According to gmLI stat on fangraphs, which measures how "intense" the situation is when a pitcher enters the game, May has been brought in to slightly above average intensity situations for the season while Jepsen has been well above average. Long story short. Make the switch and don't look back.
  25. Oxtung
    I think he brings something to the table that Santana and Arcia don't. As was stated earlier Sano is going to be bad defensively and a late inning defender could prove very useful. In addition Buxton is going to need days off (or perhaps even end up at AaA sometime this season). IMO I'd rather have Mastroianni than Santana in that role who is not a good defender and frankly might not hit any better than the Maestro either.
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