Oxtung

Yeah I agree. I think a lot of assumptions are being made that these guys will come back roaring. Given Buxtons brain injury, and the Twins history with mauer, Morneau, span, I think it is entirely possible things move much slower and we don't see them until the end of the season if at all next year.

Here are some more ERA+ rotations 2011 NYY: 143, 119, 116, 107 TBR: 134, 128, 108, 111 Det: 231, 172, 93, 87 Tex: 150, 130, 126, 112 StL: 109, 108, 104, 104 Phi: 163, 160, 137, 127 2010 Tex: 134, 133, 121, 120 NYY: 136, 132, 103, 82 (Phil Hughes=103) Min: 112, 109, 91, 91 TBR: 144, 100, 96, 89 Cin: 116, 112, 105, 96 Phi: 167, 145, 133, 86 Atl: 138, 117, 107, 98 SFG: 131, 127, 124, 114 2009 NYY: 137, 114, 111, 97 Min: 109, 100, 95, 90 LAA: 117, 115, 95, 87 Bos: 136, 121, 111, 102 LAD: 143, 124, 109, 106 StL: 182, 155, 117, 86 Phi: 144, 124, 104, 97 Col: 136, 116, 113, 109 2008 Bos: 160, 144, 115, 112 LAA: 131, 127, 119, 103 TBR: 127, 124, 119, 100 ChW: 138, 121, 119, 101 Mil: 156, 137, 101, 96 Phi: 141, 117, 104, 96 LaD: 133, 129, 112, 98 ChC: 210, 154, 117, 112 So, yes the Twins did make the playoffs that season and they did with an even worse rotation in 2009. Of course those are also the two worst (by a considerable margin too) rotations to make the playoffs in the last 6 seasons at least (looks like it will be 7 soon). I think Twins fans are misled by those 2009 & 2010 teams making the playoffs. I think we tend to look at those teams and think they represent a typical playoff team when in fact they are far, far from it. They made it because the AL central was so weak those years and we beat up on it over and over. We were the best of a bad bunch.

In order for the Twins to win the division next season it's likely Meyer will have to come up and be an Ace right off the bat posting an ERA around 3.00. Hughes will have to improve upon this season posting an ERA around 3.25, Gibson will have to take a big step forward dropping his ERA into the 3.50 range and Nolasco will have to regain his 2013 league average standing. All of those pieces coming together in the same year seems highly unlikely. I definitely hope they do, but I don't expect or predict that they will. It's ok to hope but we shouldn't be blinded to the realities of where the Twins are at.

I won't go into why your numbers are faulty, Chuchadoroo did that just fine, but I will say you're missing my point. I'm not saying things can't get better next season. I am trying to point out just how much better they need to get. I'm trying to show people that the playoff teams of today have 4 pitchers that are average or better and generally 2 elite pitchers that season. If everything breaks right the Twins might have 4 averagish pitchers but who is going to be elite? Who is going to post an ERA+ of 140? Of 120? Until the Twins have 2 or 3 pitchers capable of that we are going to be a long ways from being a contender. That's my point.

Danny Santana has a higher line drive %, ground ball % and infield hit % than Escobar.

Here are the ERA+ of the starting playoff rotations of the division winning teams: 2013 Bos: 234, 116, 109, 101 Det: 163, 145, 121, 115 Oak: 145, 144, 97, 97 (Tommy Milone didn't make the cut. ERA+ of 93) StL: 138, 134, 126, 93 (Shelby Miller didn't pitch but had a 121 ERA+ too) Dod: 194, 135, 119, 101 (Ricky Nolasco's career year is the 101 and he made only 1 start) Atl: 121, 117, 117, 106 (also had Alex Wood's 120 ERA+ available) 2012 NYY: 148, 125, 127, 101 (Hughes is the 101) Det: 161, 123, 114, 114 Oak: 153, 127, 112, 104 (Milone is the 104, the 153 is Anderson only pitched 35 innings, 120/114 hurt) Was: 138, 136, 118, 99 (Strasburg w/ 126 ERA+ hurt) Cin: 148, 118, 112, 110, 90 SnF: 126, 105, 105, 85 As of today, 2014 KC: 155, 127, 123, 116 Bal: 109, 105, 105, 103 LAA: 146, 107, 100, 96 Oak: 151, 137, 129, 125 Sea: 187, 145, 122, 92 (Have both Paxton and Walker available too) Mil: 115, 114, 108, 105 Dod: 191, 129, 123, 108 Was: 170, 127, 126, 109 Minnesota in 2014 Hughes: 105 Gibson: 96 Nolasco: 66 (101 last season) Milone: 42 (94 between Oak + Minn) May: 46 Meyer: ??? We need some serious improvements and even then we had better have one hell of an offense.

Do you have any statistics to back up your BABIP assertion? I look at the BABIP leaderboard and can't discern any obvious patterns regarding power and BABIP. Here's an anecdote; Miguel Cabrera (no speed but lots of power), Dee Gordon (no power but lots of speed) and JJ Hardy (not much power not much speed) all have the same BABIP this season. Why exactly would Santana face regression and not Escobar? Santana has hit for more power and is faster than Escobar.....

It's not the fluctuation in his BABIP that is a red flag, it's how dependent his "league average offense" is on an unsustainably high BABIP. When you look at his stats without that high BABIP they aren't pretty.

I guess I have a different view point than most people here. Gibson, Hughes and Nolasco are league averagish players. If we want to have a rotation that can put the Twins in the playoffs, and if we're talking about a nearly completed rebuild that's what is being said, then May and Meyer had better both turn into Aces. I know that it's easy to compare this rotation to that of the last few years and see a big improvement but let's not let it blind us to reality. We still have one of the worst rotations in baseball. This "rebuild" is no where near complete and won't be until the Twins have several legit #1-2 type pitchers in the rotation. At this point the only players that may fit that mold are prospects not yet arrived. Let's be thankful that this rotation isn't as terrible as the last few years but let's also keep in mind they need to keep adding talent and at this point that needs to be elite talent. I am sure cheering for Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, etc...

Escobar's OPS/BABIP by month: Month: OPS: BABIP April: .769, .400 May: .865, .406 June: .585, .260 July: .642, .311 Aug: .733, .389 I don't see an above average offensive player there. I see a guy who has had 3 months with a lot of lucky bounces, 1 month of unlucky bounces and 1 month of "normal" bounces. It seems to me an OPS of .650 is a very reasonable seasonal expectation going forward. YMMV obviously.

I have nothing further to really add to this discussion but I will say that I agree with those who think that at some point next season we'll be looking at Polanco as the savior at SS. Both Escobar and Santana are swinging above their heads, Escobar already seems to have come back to Earth since an outstanding May, and IMO it is only a matter of time before Santana does as well. If Santana can become as good a defender as his minor league reputation suggests is possible, let's not forget he was named the minor league defensive player of the year last season at AA by the leagues managers, he might hit enough to stick but counting on his bat to be above average is a step farther than I'm willing to go.

Yup. I was responding to another poster that was complaining about adhering to the above strategy insisting that there was no data to back it up. Instead the twins were supposed to let him pitch out the season regardless of his IP because there was no more risk this season or next because of it. My point, clearly poorly worded, was that neither has any data. It is a judgement call either way and it's hard to fault the Twins because they're erring on the side of caution.

If there is no science backing up the 150 innings limit then there certainly isn't any science backing up your assertion that he is just as likely to get injured at 200 innings this year as spring training next season. Lacking any science it just comes down to a judgement call.

Sending position players to AAA doesn't help the reliever situation which is really where the back up is right now in the system. Sticking Meyer in the pen, besides having no upside, just takes a spot away to evaluate a player whose future is in question. Again, regardless of how Meyer does in his 15 or so innings he is in the same position come spring 2015. It changes nothing. On the other hand 15 innings could be beneficial in determining who of Tonkin, Oliveros, Guerra, Ibarra, Achter, Hamburger, Gilmartin, Thompson, Johnson, Pryor or Milone are should be kept/placed on the 40 man. Can any of them be counted on to replace current, more expensive and/or less reliable bullpen pieces? How do they compare to Pino, Johnson or Darnell out of the bullpen? After this wave there is the Burdi, Reed, T. Jones, Melotakis, Wimmers, Peterson, Van Steensel, Muren, Gallant and probably others I've missed. That doesn't even include all the relievers turned starter that might go back to relievers (a la Melotakis). Or injuries like Z. Jones, Bard, and Chargois if they can ever get healthy. The Twins minor leagues is absolutely packed with relief pitching talent. The only way they're going to know who has what it takes and who doesn't is by letting some of these guys get their chance. Deduno, Swarzak, Duensing, Burton and Fien are not the future. It's time we get on with the future and the relief core is a place we can do that. Just because these guys aren't at a sexy position doesn't mean they aren't every bit a prospect as May and Meyer at their respective positions. Given all the angst that people are showing for not promoting talent faster I see none of it for relievers. Meyer and May might deserve rotation spots and I'm fine with that but putting them in the bullpen does nothing for next season. In fact it hurts the evaluation of players that might be solid bullpen pieces for years to come. And for what? 15 innings of a pitcher we know will be fighting for a rotation spot next season either way?

I agree that it is logical he would struggle to locate his new change up at times but does that mean his walk rate would increase? He isn't going to throw his new change up he struggles to control in a 3 ball count. He's going to come with the fastball or his slider that he can control. To me it is more likely his FB control hasn't been what it should be and that the AAA hitters are willing to take the pitch. If you want to tell me his lack of control on his new change up has caused some balls to be hit hard and increased his HR rate because it has drifted across the middle of the plate too often, I would have no problems believing that. This is getting OT, my point was Meyer's control issues probably aren't just about this change up and we need to accept that. I'm not arguing that should be keeping him from the majors though.

"Struggling with consistency" is not the same as "causing his increased walk rate." Has he or a coach given any indication that his walk rate is directly related to his change up?

You're missing my point. If you move Meyer to the pen you're taking a big* risk for a very small reward. 15 innings out of the bullpen is meaningless in the context of his career. *You can define "big" any way you'd like.

The Twins aren't going to DFA veterans who aren't disastrous; that is just the way this organization is run. Schafer has a real shot at being the 4th OF heading into next season so he isn't going to get DFA'd to make room this fall and the same goes for Fryer. Right or wrong that is how the Twins view things. I'm not sure what good 40 man spots are when my point is that there are many players that need to be evaluated at the big league level this season so 40 man decisions can be made this off season.

I don't disagree with any of your points on why he should be called up but the bullpen is not the place for him. Meyer is a 6'9" guy that struggles to consistently get his body to follow the same motion, has warmed up the same way, had the same approach to a game and pitched multiple innings at a time as a starter for his entire life and whose future is in the rotation. Moving him to a pen role for a month where he will be forced to warm up several times a game, will never actually know when or if he'll pitch, put different stresses on his shoulder seems like a very poor strategy. If you want him up then put him in the rotation. Otherwise you're taking up a roster spot that could actually be used on a reliever that might actually be a reliever next season at the same time you're messing with your future ace's psyche and health.

Where is the factual evidence that the walks are because of this new change up? I must have missed that can you point me in the right direction?

Meyer's future is a known regardless of how the next 2 months go. He will be added to the 40 man and then be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot, if not next spring, next year at some point. That is going to happen whether he gets 50 innings or zero innings in the majors this year. On the other hand there is a long list of players that need to be evaluated for 40 man spots this off season or lose them. So by adding Meyer to the 40 man to pitch in a role he has never been in his entire life, that will make absolutely no difference to his future, instead of a player that has legitimate questions about next season is not "nothing" or a "red herring". There are very real reasons not to add him to the 40 man until after the season.

If the Twins think Santana has any shot at SS he should be playing there as it is the hardest position to field. If they have determined that isn't his future than keeping him in CF is fine. They need to have a plan for his development that doesn't include trying to straddle a fence but not ever committing. How CF or even SS plays out for the rest of this season is irrelevant except where in it pertains to next season. Every move at this point should be looking to improving the future. People keep bringing up Span as a one year stop gap at CF for next season but that isn't going to happen. The guy is crushing it. He is going to have his option picked up by the Nationals. Even if he was a FA he would easily get a multi year deal.

Next season the Twins will have: Nolasco- 32 Hughes- 29 Gibson- 27 Meyer- 25 May- 25 Pelfrey- 31 At AAA: Sean Gilmartin- 25 Logan Darnell- 26 and some combination of: Taylor Rogers- 24 Tyler Duffey- 24 Jason Wheeler- 24 DJ Baxendale- 24 JO Berrios- 21 Return in a trade MiLB FA MLB FA Pino- 31 Johnson-30 I think it's a pretty safe bet one or both are DFA'd this winter. They are what they are, two old journeymen pitchers. Those aren't exactly hard to come by.

Another trade that wasn't reported here is the Miami-Houston trade. Jarred Cosart (plus 2 minor leaguers) to Miami for Colin Moran (6th overall in 2013 draft; 3B) and Jake Marisnick (decent OF prospect) and rookie ball flyer. Would you have traded Gibson, Parmelee/Colabello and Nunez for Moran and Marisnick? I think I would have pulled that trigger. Gibson is walking a very thin tightrope currently and while he has potential to improve Marisnick would slot immediately into CF slot next to Arcia and Moran has All Star potential.

I think what the Twins do in the next week or two will determine how this trade seasons gets graded. If they move Correia/Willingham/bullpen arms then it will have been a good "haul". If they simply cut bait with some of them that's fine too. As long as May and some of the AAA bullpen arms are up in the next week I'm ok with the rest.