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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Santana has more range, a better arm and more speed on the bath paths than Escobar so I understand why they keep trying him out. Personally I'm ok with Escobar, polanco or Santana going forward. I just don't want to see the team waste time and prospects at a position where there are viable alternatives.
  2. Oxtung
    Batters perform significantly worse when pinch hitting than when starting. The drop off is startling. It is so large in fact that pinch hitting Nunez for Suzuki would probably decrease the teams chances of scoring a run. This article is a little dated ('05) but I can't see why the conclusion would have changed. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5404
  3. Oxtung
    I didn't know gleeman and meat sauce were so close!
  4. Oxtung
    There is no set routine in the majors because the schedule isn't equally distributed with off days. Milone has pitched on 5 days rest just as often as 4 this season and Pelfrey more often on 5 than 4. The same principle holds in prior seasons too.
  5. Oxtung
    Since Graham has already thrown 31 innings with the Twins it would be hard for Meyer to catch up barring an injury.
  6. Oxtung
    Clearly yesterday Pelfrey's splitter was devastating but most MLB pitchers go through stretches of dominance at some point during the season. One game does not a season make. If the Twins are seriously thinking of resigning Pelf at this point I would be pretty disappointed. There's a month and a half left before the deadline. Let's wait and see how things go in his next 8 starts. If he's striking out a batter per inning at that point then maybe you start a conversation with his agent.
  7. Oxtung
    It's not good etiquette to troll your own website!!!
  8. Oxtung
    Howard struck out 26% of the time 2006 and walked 15%. Walker is striking out 40% and walking 6% that is a huge difference. If Walker can increase his walk rate close to 15% that changes the equation dramatically. Unfortunately he's showing no ability to do that. His highest walk rate in the minors is 8%. The fact that Walker has played on good teams means nothing about how good of a month he has had.
  9. Oxtung
    When ABWIII connects clearly he is spanking the ball but I can't look past the fact that he is striking out in ~40% of his PA's. It's not like his walk rate is particularly good either to off set his lack of contact. I would have a hard time putting him on my list of top hitters.
  10. Oxtung
    ABW III is striking out in 41% of his PA's so far this year. He has 1 walk. That is terrible no matter the sample size. His BA, OBP and OPS are all being propped up by a BABIP of .395. The fact that he has been incredibly lucky does not change the fact that while he might swing hard, he isn't going to be a major league player (barring some major change in approach). On the other hand Harrison has always had a very good strike zone judgement. He hits for enough power to potentially play a corner position. Kepler is already on the 40 man so he of course is going to get preferential treatment whether deserved or not.
  11. Oxtung
    Any word on Pat Dean? What's changed that he is all of a sudden dominating? Or is this just a SSS blip?
  12. Oxtung
    With Kepler moving up what other roster moves will we see? Does he play 1st with DJ Hicks moving to AAA? Or does he play OF with Harrison getting pushed to AAA? Do Harrison, Kepler and ABWIII all split time in the corners? Given ABWIII strikeout problems he would seem to be the odd man out at this point. Not that he wouldn't still get playing time but he would seem to be in line for less.
  13. Oxtung
    To me the most interesting question mark is Alex Wimmers. He had >10K/9 last year as a reliever. He gave up a few to many hits and walks but seemed to settle down in the second half after his promotion to AA. This will be his second year after TJ surgery so I'm excited to see how it goes. While he is old for the league age-wise he only has 140 IP below AA.
  14. Oxtung
    Looking at the relievers that could be ahead of Reed and Burdi: May, Meyer, Melotakis, Wimmers, Achter, Oliveros, Hamburger, Pryor, Tonkin, Pressly, Thielbar, Thompson. If May or Meyer get moved to the bullpen that makes sense for them to be ahead of the two 2014 draft picks. Everything we heard about Melotakis last year was dominating stuff but he just had TJ surgery so that will set him back. Everybody forgets about Wimmers but he had a really good season relieving last year in 49 IP he struck out 63 and walked 13. After that I would be pretty disappointed if any of the other guys held Burdi or Reed back. One wild card is Zach Jones, depends on how he comes back from his surgery.
  15. Oxtung
    I think everyone can agree that would be awesome (well except maybe the Chief)!
  16. Oxtung
    I'm with WillihMmer. His k rate continues to increase as he ages and his BABIP can't compensate enough. I think he's on the downward arc of his career. An OPS around .740.
  17. Oxtung
    Who cares if May isn't stretched out completely? Have Pelfrey/Milone piggy back on his starts to begin the season. So instead of starting a guy for 100 pitches than brining a guy in for 40 just reverse it. Start the guy for 40 and then bring Pelf in for 100. Be "creative". For the "just wait until later in the year," crowd, isn't that what we did last season? How is that helping us now? Instead of figuring out if May and Meyer can handle the workload we have now been forced to punt that down the road and bring in 2 new outside starters in Santana and Milone because we aren't sure what May and Meyer can do. If they never give the youngsters more than 10 starts how will the Twins ever know? It's not like people are arguing to toss Berrios or Stewart out there.
  18. Oxtung
    I'm fine with Hicks going down but don't get Milone. Other than being left handed, what does he bring to the table? This is just me but I'd rather bring north the guy who doesn't get into jams rather than the one who has to consistently battle to get out of them. But that's just me I'm sure....
  19. Oxtung
    I could live with the 30 something's getting the innings if I truly believed they were brought in purely as stop gaps until our best relieving prospects are ready. If the Twins have given up on Tonkin, Achter, Pressly so be it. If the plan is to bridge the gap to Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Z. Jones, T. Jones (Yes I realize that a few of those guys are hurt but they seem to represent the best of The Twins prospects), I could accept that. This organization is in love with mediocre hard working veterans, and while there is nothing wrong with some vets on the pitching staff, there is something wrong when the vast majority of the staff is past their prime. This is a rebuilding team after all. So I think my main problem here is that this is a reoccurring theme (yes there are a few counter examples like Gibson and Hicks) and I see no reason to expect that cycle to change. Does anybody think next year will be any different than this year?
  20. Oxtung
    For those looking to trade the 5th starter roulette loser(s), what are you hoping to get back? IMO the return would be ... Underwhelming. The Twins picked Milone up last year for a 4th OF and Pelfrey has pitched 1 year of the last 3 (and wasn't a good starter to begin with). I think bringing either Stauffer or Boyer north would be a mistake. Neither contribute anything to the future and for a rebuilding club like the Twins that's what matters. I'd rather they had traded for a young failed starter and moved him to the pen hoping he could revive his career... or gone with some of their young fireballers that might not be completely ready... or signed a really good reliever. Pretty much I would have gone any direction other than bringing north a group of low strike-out, low upside, 30-something's. Ugh....
  21. Oxtung
    Finally getting back to this. Let me reiterate that Ryan deserves credit for making good decisions on who he has drafted and who he has traded for but almost all those players can be linked directly to the Twins being terrible. Here is the breakdown of the Twins players and prospects (from Baseball America) under the age of 25. Bill Smith players Kyle Gibson Danny Santana Aaron Hicks Kennys Vargas Miguel Sano Eddie Rosario Jorge Polanco Trades because Twins are bad Trevor May Alex Meyer Eduardo Escobar High draft picks because Twins are bad Byron Buxton Kohl Stewart Nick Gordon International FA's Josmil Pinto Oswaldo Arcia Lewis Thorpe Not top draft picks JO Berrios Once you take players and prospects Smith acquired and talent due to the Twins being terrible out of the equation you're left with a catcher that can't catch. An outfielder that can't field. An 18 year old pitcher with 70 innings at A-ball and Berrios, who admittedly is looking like a stud. To be fair, Berrios was also a 1st round pick, so it's not exactly uncovering a hidden gem. So again, Ryan deserves credit for hitting on his high draft picks, but he hasn't exactly done anything creative to bring talent to this organization. If the Twins hire almost any GM instead of bringing Ryan back the young talent would look pretty much the same. I guess I just don't believe that Ryan should get much applause for making basic moves that almost any other GM would make as well.
  22. Oxtung
    Can we move past the "Ryan has restocked the system" meme? I don't have time right now to run down the list but almost every prospect the Twins have is there because of one a couple different reasons. First, many are guys Smith drafted/signed. Second, the Twins have been terrible and so have had top 5 draft picks. Third, the Twins have been bad so the Twins could trade their few good players for prospects. While Ryan should be given credit for not screwing up his opportunities lets not go overboard. He hasn't done anything that every other GM hasn't/wouldn't do. Unless you live in Philadelphia.
  23. Oxtung
    There seem to be 4 options. First, sign an ace now, helping the twins compete in 2015 and then hope he's good later in deal. Either way the deal ends early enough the twins can still retain Buxton and Sano, assuming they deserve it, at that point. Second, they can wait a couple of years until the twins are "ready" to sign an ace helping them compete a few years down the road. They still have to hope he's good at the end of that contract. However, they can't afford to resign both Sano and Buxton. So one gets traded or goes in free agency. Third, they could choose to trade minor league assets to obtain an ace like the royals did with Shields. Since said asset will only have a year or two left on his contract resigning Sano and Buxton won't be a problem but they are leveraging their future. Fourth, the Twins could decide to never go after an ace because the risk is just too great. They then could sign second tier pitchers like garza, lohse, Santana or Jimenez. Or they could just choose to fill the rotation from internal candidates. There is no perfect solution. There are risks with each approach.
  24. Oxtung
    It doesn't matter how much money the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or anyone else has to throw around. They aren't going to pay a guy $50 million per year or even $30 million per year. As long as the Twins have ~$25 million per year for the next 6-7 years available they can go get their guy, from a financial perspective at least. It just comes down to this, is Ryan willing to bet big and push the contract to a state that the Yankees, Red Sox, et al feel uncomfortable or unwilling to go. Currently the Twins are on the books for about ~$83 million dollars next season (assuming he keeps the Arbitration guys). Will Ryan feel comfortable pushing the payroll towards $110 million? I doubt it but I don't know.
  25. Oxtung
    That's the beauty of it. If they signed a top pitcher now that contract would be coming off the books just as Sano, Meyer, Buxton, Berrios, etc... hit free agency. And bonus, if they front loaded that contract there might be money to bring another FA into the fold years from now. On the other hand if they wait any longer to sign a big contract there will be some tough decisions to make down the road.
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