Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier

[darin617]

 

I don't see how a deadline gets the Dodgers to move off their offer for a Dozier for De Leon 1 for 1 swap. They don't seem to want him bad enough to have offered more than this since the winter meetings.

This is not a fair return for Dozier but they are trying to see how desperate we are for pitching because they know he is the only trade chip we would really consider moving that would get a good return.

Dozier is not getting traded and the Dodgers will move on to Kinsler with either the same offer or less IMO

 

Kinsler will not waive his no trade clause without getting a couple years added on to his current deal. He will also be 35 this upcoming year and teams are finally waking up and using some common sense when it comes to contract length to players in their mid 30's.

If JDL and Alvarez are on the table beg for a small 3rd piece and get it done!

[Doomtints]

 

I disagree. It's not an ultimatum at all. It's wanting to get it done because they need to move forward one way or another. It wouldn't be smart if they weren't prepared to walk away, but I think they are and always have been.

 

If you are prepared to walk away then you simply walk away.  You don't do this. 

 

For every deal made there are hundreds not made.  How many times have you seen a team not get what they wanted use their beat reporter to make an ultimatum before walking away? 

[Doomtints]

 

I disagree. It seems LA is waiting out MN because they know Dozier's value drops once the season starts. Moving on is OK if you aren't getting the right return

 

Sure but this has nothing to  do with what I said.  I'm talking about using the press to announce you are walking away.

[Squirrel]

If you are prepared to walk away then you simply walk away.  You don't do this. 

 

For every deal made there are hundreds not made.  How many times have you seen a team not get what they wanted use their beat reporter to make an ultimatum before walking away?

 

Well, I don't agree. And I still don't call it an ultimatum.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sub Twins for Atlanta, and this is a good reason that Dozier needs to go

 

On the other hand, Atlanta is not on a rebuilding phase:  They have a brand new stadium that they need to start filling with rear ends, before it turns into the ghost town Target Field has been recently, and this means winning.  And signing two 40 year old free agents pitchers, extending one of their hottest commodities, getting the best FA UT in the market for a long term, going after older "value" players like John Danks, Rhiner Cruz and  does not signal rebuilding.  Check their starting OF, if you don't believe me.

 

Dozier would fit really nicely in that team, and the Braves have the young pitching to make it happen...

 

I would love to see the Braves get involved since they have so much high-end pitching prospect talent. 

[chpettit19]

 

Sub Twins for Atlanta, and this is a good reason that Dozier needs to go

 

On the other hand, Atlanta is not on a rebuilding phase:  They have a brand new stadium that they need to start filling with rear ends, before it turns into the ghost town Target Field has been recently, and this means winning.  And signing two 40 year old free agents pitchers, extending one of their hottest commodities, getting the best FA UT in the market for a long term, going after older "value" players like John Danks, Rhiner Cruz and  does not signal rebuilding.  Check their starting OF, if you don't believe me.

 

Dozier would fit really nicely in that team, and the Braves have the young pitching to make it happen...

 

I disagree. Atlanta is very much rebuilding. Locking up your 4 WAR, 26 year old, gold glove centerfielder through his arb years plus a little at a very reasonable rate is what smart rebuilding teams do. It gives you cost certainty. It's what the Twins will (or at least should) do with Buxton and Sano once the new front office has a good idea of what they think those 2 will be in the long run. You don't need to win at a super high level to fill a new stadium well. It fills itself because people want to come see the new stadium. The next couple years is when you need to be winning. And after the huge haul of prospects they got last winter and all the payroll they've cut they've positioned themselves very well to start winning big the next couple years because at least a couple of their young arms will turn out to be good MLB pitchers. And they'll be very well set up to wait for the big market teams to blow all their payrolls on Harper, Machado, Donaldson, and Kershaw and jump in to sign one or two of the 15 (maybe an exaggeration) pretty big time free agents after the 2018 season.

 

As for signing 40 year old pitchers and a decent utility guy that's also what smart rebuilding teams do. It's what TR and the Twins refused to do. They'll flip those guys at the deadline for even more near MLB ready prospects if they are having good years and keep them for a full year of leadership for the young guys if they aren't. 2 years for Rodriguez isn't long term. You can simply flip him at either deadline or during the offseason or have him as a solid backup as you get your youngsters experience. Atlanta is doing exactly what the Cubs and Astros did and what MN refused to do. They're rebuilding the most efficient way. And you bring in those "value" guys hoping you find a diamond in the rough. If not you DFA them without thinking twice. Atlanta is doing what MN should be doing. And trading from your stash of top end pitching prospects for a guy who's going to leave in 2 years is how you set your rebuild back a few years. Atlanta is in wait and see mode.

[DJSim22]

Now I see why a deal is not getting done, the Twins would be stupid to make that deal. 

[Badsmerf]

If you're on twitter, be sure to take this poll: 

 

https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/814985155173613568

Not in Twitter. I'm disappointed in this poll. First, you should have a "hell no" option. Second, you should have a "rally monkey" option. I'd have difficulty choosing between the two (usually default to rally monkey for everything).

[nicksaviking]

Andrew Friedman

 

The guy came from Wall Street... Schooled and practiced in Positive Arbitrage. The guy gets up in the morning just so he can acquire players for less than they worth.

 

If course the difference between Wall Street and the Dodgers is that a successful morning involves waking up to a championship parade, which is often not compatible with maximizing his assets.

[Doomtints]

 

I would love to see the Braves get involved since they have so much high-end pitching prospect talent. 

 

All Atlanta needs to do is look at the Twins 2016 season to know that Dozier isn't a fit for them right now. 

[dgwills]

Damn, the Twins don't seem to have much luck when trading established players. Only one team in on Dozier this year. Nobody wanted Pluoffe last year. Even Santana didn't get that great of a return considering the player he was.

Sure the Twins have caused a lot of their own problems (I don't know what deals they've turned down), but there have been things out of their control that have hurt them as well.

I wouldn't trade for De Leon straight up under any circumstance. He's not a sure fire prospect and it's likely he won't get 10 WAR in his whole career. Dozier will get that in 2 years. Not to mention we'd get some kind of prospect if he leaves via free agency.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I just struggle to understand how Dozier seems to have such little trade value. DeLeon does not really blow anyone away does he? I mean he looks like an OK prospect but they don't always pan out. Dother has hit 20+ homers several times in a row now. I don't get it.

Because only one team has interest.

[Platoon]

Contrary to some views, Dozier will not become more valuable during the season. It's highly unlikely his offensive numbers will improve from career highs, his defense won't, and his contractual stability is a diminishing asset. The Twins will not be a better team because BD is here next year. That will not happen until the SP is upgraded, and the up the middle defense is improved. It is possible that if, dangling Dozier out there like a 2004 GMC pickup in the front yard with a "For Sale" sign on it that the best offer to the FO underwhelming, Dozier is not worth what some thought. But what is not possible is the fantasy that he will be worth more in the future.

[Squirrel]

Contrary to some views, Dozier will not become more valuable during the season. It's highly unlikely his offensive numbers will improve from career highs, his defense won't, and his contractual stability is a diminishing asset. The Twins will not be a better team because BD is here next year. That will not happen until the SP is upgraded, and the up the middle defense is improved. It is possible that if, dangling Dozier out there like a 2004 GMC pickup in the front yard with a "For Sale" sign on it that the best offer to the FO underwhelming, Dozier is not worth what some thought. But what is not possible is the fantasy that he will be worth more in the future.

I'm not sure it's really about value that Dozier isn't getting what he's worth. It's more about supply and demand. So are you saying that you would trade him straight up for DeLeon? A proven ML position player with above average defense and well above average power for his position, for an unproven highly ranked prospect within the Dodgers system? No. The only thing you can do is hold him and hope that a better offer comes along. Yes, we need pitching, but ONE pitching prospect isn't going to solve that. It may not even be a start if that ONE prospect doesn't pan out. Yeah, this isn't s great place to be in and we all hoped for more, but that's just how it is. If that's all there is out there for Dozier, you keep him and hope for better. If not, you look for another way. If this is the only way to improve our future, then we don't have much of one.

[HitInAPinch]

At what point did the narrative change from De Leon + Alvarez to just De Leon?  As of yesterday, DaveW is still reporting the deal on the table is De Leon + Alvarez.  Other than the initial timing of the trade, he seems to be pretty spot on. 

 

Any trade of Dozier should include at least a MLB pitching candidate and a couple more for the MiLB pot.

 

 

[ewen21]

I'm not sure it's really about value that Dozier isn't getting what he's worth. It's more about supply and demand. So are you saying that you would trade him straight up for DeLeon? .

He isn't saying that at all

[Squirrel]

He isn't saying that at all

Which is why I used a question mark as I was asking. If that's all the offer is for, then what?

[Platoon]

I'm not sure it's really about value that Dozier isn't getting what he's worth. It's more about supply and demand. So are you saying that you would trade him straight up for DeLeon? A proven ML position player with above average defense and well above average power for his position, for an unproven highly ranked prospect within the Dodgers system? No. The only thing you can do is hold him and hope that a better offer comes along. Yes, we need pitching, but ONE pitching prospect isn't going to solve that. It may not even be a start if that ONE prospect doesn't pan out. Yeah, this isn't s great place to be in and we all hoped for more, but that's just how it is. If that's all there is out there for Dozier, you keep him and hope for better. If not, you look for another way. If this is the only way to improve our future, then we don't have much of one.

You have some very valid points. Nor in a perfect scenario would I argue them. Hopefully there are other avenues to improving the pitching? But thay all have issues. An expensive veteran? Trading one of our top position prospects? A currently non existent FA market? And while your take on supply and demand is likely correct, will the demand increase? The chances of that, and the chances of a prospect like DeLeon are both open to the same level of conjecture. Both the Dodgers and Twins would be trading something they don't need for something they need. That to me impacts my view on this negotiation. While I cannot guarantee DeLeons future success, BD past history of lengthly droughts does not allow the guarantee of his static value at the trade deadline. Nor for that matter his value to the Dodgers playoff chances. While it is true that the immediate impact of the trade most likely will be in the Dodgers favor, the fact remains that short of trading some of the high end Twins position "prospects", this team has little foreseeable avenues to improving its SP in time to take advantage of the maturation of these "prospects". It's not an enviable situation. That said, if I thought BD would have more value in June, or even next winter, I would keep him. But I don't. IMHO he is a luxury this team would be remiss in not cashing in on.

[ThejacKmp]

If you are prepared to walk away then you simply walk away.  You don't do this. 

 

For every deal made there are hundreds not made.  How many times have you seen a team not get what they wanted use their beat reporter to make an ultimatum before walking away?

 

I assume that this is to build fan pressure. In todays baseball, the fanbase can influence things. I don't see how this hurts the twins in this process or for their long-term reputation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you're on twitter, be sure to take this poll: 

 

I might consider Urias straight up... 

[diehardtwinsfan]

So personally, I think this De Leon/Dozier straight up thing is really a poor conclusion drawn from LEN III's article. Neal didn't say that at all, he said they weren't happy with the deal that De Leon anchored.  Big difference. The fact that the national media has jumped on this hasn't helped much either. My guess right now is that it is a De Leon/Stewart deal, which I don't mind, but I do agree that we need something else. I'd have to think they have a few guys in the 10-20 range that could make that work... I don't know. 

[Squirrel]

You have some very valid points. Nor in a perfect scenario would I argue them. Hopefully there are other avenues to improving the pitching? But thay all have issues. An expensive veteran? Trading one of our top position prospects? A currently non existent FA market? And while your take on supply and demand is likely correct, will the demand increase? The chances of that, and the chances of a prospect like DeLeon are both open to the same level of conjecture. Both the Dodgers and Twins would be trading something they don't need for something they need. That to me impacts my view on this negotiation. While I cannot guarantee DeLeons future success, BD past history of lengthly droughts does not allow the guarantee of his static value at the trade deadline. Nor for that matter his value to the Dodgers playoff chances. While it is true that the immediate impact of the trade most likely will be in the Dodgers favor, the fact remains that short of trading some of the high end Twins position "prospects", this team has little foreseeable avenues to improving its SP in time to take advantage of the maturation of these "prospects". It's not an enviable situation. That said, if I thought BD would have more value in June, or even next winter, I would keep him. But I don't. IMHO he is a luxury this team would be remiss in not cashing in on.

That's fair. And I guess that's the divide here between the varying points of view on this issue. For me, there is a point where you walk away. Yeah, there's risk no matter how you look at it. It's just difficult for me to part with a proven, definite asset for something that may never produce. I'd be more comfortable, obviously, with a return of more pieces in the hopes that one is really good. Is there a point you'd walk away from this situation, out of curiosity?

[TheLeviathan]

 

At what point did the narrative change from De Leon + Alvarez to just De Leon?  As of yesterday, DaveW is still reporting the deal on the table is De Leon + Alvarez.  Other than the initial timing of the trade, he seems to be pretty spot on. 

 

Any trade of Dozier should include at least a MLB pitching candidate and a couple more for the MiLB pot.

 

MLBTR took a few comments from LEN and extrapolated that he thinks it's a 1:1 deal.

 

His actual article doesn't suggest it at all.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sure but this has nothing to do with what I said. I'm talking about using the press to announce you are walking away.

sure it does. If the Dodgers are waiting out the Twins, announcing you are walking away puts the ball in the Dodgers court. Perfectly fair to say up your ante soon or I'm keeping Dozier.

[jorgenswest]

Neal wrote "The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

 

MLBTR interpreted "Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon."

 

It isn't clear whether non-prospect minor league filler types have been offered. Does that even matter? I think it is fair to read Neal's article as the Dodgers have offered no other prospects in the deal. MLBTR's statement is a little stronger with the one-for-one but the only real difference might be AAAA types that have little chance to have any major league impact.

 

I don't get how the front office would pass up De Leon and Alvarez. I do get how they would pass up just one of them. My heart wants to trust Dave's source but I have to balance that against the reporting of a veteran reporter respected in the industry and former president of the BBWAA.

[terrydactyls]

There is quite a bit of referencing "supply and demand" in this thread. And that is a very strong argument - in the business world. But, in my humble opinion based on 100 years of business experience and following baseball (maybe a slight exaggeration), trading for a perceived asset (Dozier) that brings me a World Series title, has nothing to do with sound business practices. It is all about ego and bragging rights. The owners of sports teams are not in this business so much as to make profits as they are for the opportunity to rub elbows with athletes and (especially in L.A.) celebrities. So I would predict (again in my humble opinion) that if nothing happens now, if the Dodgers are not in first place in mid-May, their "demand" is going to be coming after our "supply" in full force and sound business practices will be thrown out the window.

[USAFChief]

Contrary to some views, Dozier will not become more valuable during the season. It's highly unlikely his offensive numbers will improve from career highs, his defense won't, and his contractual stability is a diminishing asset. The Twins will not be a better team because BD is here next year. That will not happen until the SP is upgraded, and the up the middle defense is improved. It is possible that if, dangling Dozier out there like a 2004 GMC pickup in the front yard with a "For Sale" sign on it that the best offer to the FO underwhelming, Dozier is not worth what some thought. But what is not possible is the fantasy that he will be worth more in the future.

The Twins will almost certainly be a better team next year if Brian Dozier is here.

 

There is very little chance De Leon makes the 2017 Twins better than Dozier does.

 

Maybe by 2018. Dozier is potentially gone in 2019, so pretty good chance by then.

 

And I also disagree on Dozier's potential trade value during this coming season. There is a reasonable chance a team or two decides they really need Dozier. Lets just see what LA offers if they stumble out of the gate, Utley is a gaping wound at second, and LH pitching is eating them up. How much pressure do you suppose they will be under to do something?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Contrary to some views, Dozier will not become more valuable during the season. It's highly unlikely his offensive numbers will improve from career highs, his defense won't, and his contractual stability is a diminishing asset.

While I agree it's highly unlikely Dozier will be more valuable in June than he is today, it's not a foregone conclusion.

 

Teams at the deadline are sometimes desperate for talent. It's a longshot - one I wouldn't take willingly - but it's not certain what Dozier will bring at the deadline.

[Han Joelo]

Deleon seems like a slightly better (maybe) less durable version of Berrios. To me, hope for the future rests as much (more) on Berrios and Romero (or Thorpe) being as good as we want Deleon and Alvarez to be.

 

I am fine with stats and all, but these projections of Deleon putting up top ten numbers don't jibe with him being available at all, in which case he must be damaged goods in some way. Reminds me of the Span trade in that regard.

[darin617]

 

Urias is probably as good a bet as any to ascend to that plateau next.

 

Urias threw over 122 innings last year and never came close to breaking 100 innings in his short career. For people thinking he is going to be #2 behind Kershaw are going to be wrong. The Dodgers are going to have to get very creative to limit his innings to keep him around 150 or so innings. I am not saying he does not have the talent to become great but he has been babied so far and who knows how he will react to getting pushed.