Trevor Larnach is Twins' Most Interesting Non-Tender Candidate

[Cody Pirkl]

The November 20 arbitration deadline is just around the corner, and the Twins have a handful of decisions to make. Trevor Larnach is probably right on the fence as to whether he’s worth tendering a contract to. The Twins’ decision will speak volumes about their plans and how they view the rest of the roster.

A first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Larnach is due for his last trip through arbitration before becoming a free agent. He was a non-tender candidate last offseason, and the Twins chose to stick with him. They were rewarded with a career year from Larnach, as he posted a .788 OPS. Despite his strong production, Larnach was a big part of the left-handed logjam the front office created for itself. Though some of this logjam will be cleared up regardless of the Larnach decision, the team could open things up quite a bit by cutting Larnach loose.

It’s no secret that the Twins have far too many left-handed-hitting outfielders at or near the MLB level. Things have reached the point where evaluating some of them has become extremely difficult. While top prospects such as Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodríguez will be prioritized, the team has plenty of potentially useful options who have struggled to get opportunities. 

This would be irrelevant if Larnach were a slam dunk at his projected $6.3 million in salary, but that’s a difficult argument to make. Larnach’s career production before 2026 made it worth questioning whether he was worth the $4.475 million he made this season. Though his production made him worth the price, the 2027 team context (along with his age and career profile) may give the Twins pause.

While Larnach was a career-best 23% more productive than an average hitter in 2026, he continued to show a surprisingly modest amount of power. His production was carried by a career-high OBP and his best batting average on balls in play since 2022. While this is a valuable skill, his career-best .436 slugging percentage keeps him from being an impact, middle-of-the-order bat. His ceiling is limited, and he’s shown his floor to be extremely low in previous seasons.

Injuries have to be part of the equation with Larnach. He’s had somewhat frequent stretches each season of being either in and out of the lineup, limited to DH duties, or entirely unavailable due to the injury bug. It was also just announced that he will undergo arthroscopic wrist surgery this offseason, which still has plenty of time to heal, but is not great news for a soon-to-be 30-year-old corner outfielder who already lacks power.

Larnach would be the team’s worst defensive option in left field, to boot. The team has preached for years that they want to become more fundamentally sound. Speed and defense are constantly the stated goals (though we’ve seen little implementation of this), and Larnach offers neither, being a below-average runner and regularly posting negative marks in defensive metrics.

There are plenty of marks against tendering Larnach a contract, but when it comes down to it, his production in 2026 would have been worth that price. Tendering him and awarding him the starting left-field job by default would be the safest option, as the team could preserve depth and keep at least one top prospect in St. Paul. Paying him may signify that the team believes in his 2026 production, and may even believe there’s more to unlock.

There’s a legitimate argument against tendering him, however. We’ve seen Larnach’s floor plenty of times throughout his career, and if 2026 is his ceiling, it could be easily argued that the Twins have plenty of other options that could meet or exceed that production. If he’s non-tendered, it shows that they agree. They could hand the position to Alan Roden, a vastly superior defender with similar on-base-driven offensive production. They could also entrust that job to Rodríguez, who will have to make the Opening Day roster in 2027.

A trade would be the middle course, and might be the wisest. Larnach isn't a great fit for the 2027 Twins, but he might have done enough in 2026 to make another team willing to gamble on him, even at a moderate cost. If the Twins can get something for him in trade, it could simplify their dilemma about whether to tender him a deal. That creates a de facto trade deadline for him in one week, though, so one way or another, something is about to happen.

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The non-tender deadline will bring clarity to the Twins’ plans for 2027, and with two of their top prospects as candidates to fill in, the Larnach decision may be the most interesting. How should they proceed?

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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[Linus]

The wrist surgery just made this a whole lot more complicated. If the Twins plan was to tender him and then trade him ( after all they are quite adept at that move /sc) it seems like a very risky play now. A trade partner won’t have any idea until January? if he is back and healthy. He’s really not a player with enough upside to take that kind of risk. If the Twins tender him he is most likely with the club in 27. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If 3 teams truly want him right now, get whatever you can for him via trade. Otherwise dfa him and wish him well. 

The absolute worst thing would be to offer him arbitration and then have him take up a spot on the team. They need better defense, not worse. 

 

[ashbury]

For me, figuring out what to do with Keaschall is key to deciding on Larnach.  If Luke can play a defensive position better than "adequately" (always faint praise), you could commit to Larnach as a strong-side platoon bat at DH, and then you'd have this portion of the batting order against RH starting pitchers ("past performance is no guarantee of future results," as they say in the financial ads).:

Brooks Lee (OPS .800 against all righties)

Kody Clemens (.789)

Luke Keaschall (.800)

Trevor Larnach (.819)

Byron Buxton (.865)

If Jeffers came back that would be a sixth guy who had way above average offense against RHP in 2026, but the latest comments seem to indicate he'll turn down the QO, and I doubt the Twins will outbid the Yankees or whoever. 

But even without Jeffers that's the core of a potent offense against righties, making less effort to fill in the missing slots. Jenkins did well against them in short duty, for instance.

You don't have to squint TOOO hard to find a role for Larnach on a contending team.  A guy who is unplayable against lefties represents a bit of a headache for his manager - and nobody in 2026 stepped up to destroy LHP - but that's why managers earn the big bucks.

But again, if the braintrust decides to make Keaschall a full-time DH even at his young age, then Larnach's last remaining role on the Twins evaporates.

[HerbieFan]

I just think it's time to move on/forward with the young guys

[darin617]

There's no reason to tender Larnach with the idea of flipping him for a lottery ticket. I thought that was the only reason he was tendered last year and then they couldn't find a taker and were stuck with him.

With the Twins having internal options the 7m or whatever Larnach would get would be better used for a high end closer.

[SE23]

A fella could drive himself batty thinking about the kind of return we could have gotten for Ryan, Jeffers, Ober and Larnach if they had been traded at their peaks. All four had serious value that has now been squandered. Larnach still has value and maybe, just maybe, this one time, the FO will make a deal that makes sense for him and for the Twins.

[Twins GFP]

Not a popular opinion, but I think they will offer him. Trading him is a realistic option, but keeping him as insurance that one of the kids doesn't produce is realistic too.

[thelanges5]

Larnach + MiLB guy to the Friars for Fermin or Campusano

[StiltedGopher]

Just say no.  If the team already had thoroughbreds in the line up, maybe Larnach could be a role player.  They haven’t found the thoroughbreds yet and need to keep trying the youngsters out in hopes of striking gold.  Gamble with youth - maybe they are not as good as Larnach - you don’t lose much.  Delay or even miss out on a future star - big loss.  

[JADBP]

1 hour ago, SE23 said:

A fella could drive himself batty thinking about the kind of return we could have gotten for Ryan, Jeffers, Ober and Larnach if they had been traded at their peaks. All four had serious value that has now been squandered. Larnach still has value and maybe, just maybe, this one time, the FO will make a deal that makes sense for him and for the Twins.

I am driven crazy by the Red Sox offer for Ryan!  That was an insanely generous offer--we would have received an ace for the next 5-6 years at far lower cost than Ryan.  Basically, the Red Sox were offering their #1 and #2 prospect just to get Ryan.  Jeffers, we could have been flipped to a number of teams several times over the last year, both off season and in-season.

Remember, we almost traded Larnach to Houston last year, before the deal got squashed, for RP Abreu.  So, he must have some value.  Alas, it would have been nice to have Abreu but he just declared free agency, so it would have been short.  

My vote is simple:  Trade Larnach.  If there are no takers, then just release him.  There is no room for him on the team.  Period.  Time to sweep out the deadwood.  Maybe package him with Martin or Wallner...both of whom have also outlived their usefulness to the Twins. 

[JADBP]

BTW....HAVE YOU SEEN THE LIST OF UNPROTECTRED PLAYERS IN THE UPCOMING RULE 5 DRAFT???

There are some amazing opportunities to pick up some highly talented prospects on the cheap in the Rule 5 draft (that's how we picked up Johann Santana, in case you forgot!).  Look at this list.  It is very pitcher heavy, and that makes it a little easier to stash them for a season (for example, in the BP).

 

Christian Zazueta, RHP, Dodgers (No. 33)
Travis Sykora, RHP, Nationals (No. 48)
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals (No. 66)
Jefferson Rojas, 3B/SS, Mets (No. 68)
Demetrio Crisantes, 2B, D-backs (No. 84)
Josue Briceño, C/1B, Tigers (No. 86)
Nolan Perry, RHP, Blue Jays (No. 90)
Bryan Rincon, SS, Phillies (No. 96)

Zazueta looks very good, and is ranked #5 on the Dodger's list, with a 60-grade FB and Change.

Sykora is currently out with TJ surgery, and won't return until mid-to-late 2027, so pretty easy to stash.  

Susana has a 70-grade FB (reaching 103 MPH) and Slider!  He's had some injuries, but is a closer in waiting.  

If I were Zoll...I would certainly try to nab any of the pitchers on this list (except probably Perry).  And, Josue Briceno has monster power--could be a big help at 1B--though I am pretty sure he is not quite ready for MLB.  That would be a tougher pick. 

I am sure that teams are going to shrink this list but they only have until Tuesday to do so.  Can we pick up another very good pitcher through the Rule 5 draft???

[Vanimal46]

[Nashvilletwin]

A couple of quick questions to determine what we do with Larkin;

Is Larkin part of the next core?

Would Larkin take any ABs or innings away from a player who is projected to be in the next core?

Would Larkin’s presence on the team measurably improve the Twins chances of making the post season in 2027?

Could Larkin’s $7MM be used more effectively on other roster additions?

Are we sure we could trade Larkin and his salary, especially coming off wrist surgery?

The answers to those questions will lead to the logical, correct conclusion. 
 

Btw, you could swap out Larkin for Lewis and come to the identical conclusion. 

[High heat]

You can’t tender both Royce Lewis and Larnach.  I think you need to move on from both of them but if you are certain you can trade Larnach if you tender him a deal.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, either you are going to give Jenkins, Keaschell and Rodriguez a chance, or you're not. Not to mention Roden, Gonzalez and Mendez, though I wouldn't be shocked if two of those were trees.....

If they have a veteran, they'll play him, and they'll play him even more when a rookie slumps. Go with the youth. 

If they bring Larnach and Lewis back, and lose Jeffries, what are they even trying to do? That's the same team that lost way too many games, without Jeffries. 

[old nurse]

Larnach has a career OPS of .739 and a career OPS+ of 109. So above average for a career.  So is he a .788 guy, or the one more like .727 OPS guy. One has some usefulness, one doesn’t when the price tag goes higher. There lies the problem.  

[TL]

It would be criminal to play Larnach in the field when you have Buxton, E-Rod, Jenkins, Keaschall and Roden to choose from. So he would be a platoon DH making over $6MM.  One that will likely not hit RH pitchers better than any other left-handed batter we could have at DH anyway (including Jenkins or E-Rod when they are not in the field).

And that would be $6MM for an average bench bat that could have been put into the bullpen, starting pitcher or first baseman. He’ll find a home (hopefully via trade) but he no longer fits this roster.

[jmlease1]

If Larnach were RH we wouldn't be having this conversation, but he isn't so we're doing this dance again. 

I think the right thing is to non-tender him. It's not that he's not worth the money, it's that he's not worth the roster spot. There's really very little reason to believe that there's much more ceiling for Larnach at his age. There's more likelihood that he'll get worse as he ages and pick up more injuries (this is not exactly a player with years of great health either). He's best suited to being a platoon DH who can occasionally play RF for you and he doesn't add anything for you except hitting. He's just finished his best season as a pro, and it still only amounted to 1.4 bWAR.

Keeping Larnach probably helps keep your floor up, but it lowers your ceiling. The best opportunity the Twins have to raise their ceiling is by playing Rodriguez & Jenkins and having them live up to their talent. And they still have other guys coming along who can step in if either struggles (Roden, Martin, Gonzalez, Mendez) who are all ready for MLB time right now. The opportunity cost by giving Larnach a roster spot is the real problem here. The money isn't terrible by any means, but could be better spent elsewhere.

The wrist surgery makes it much less likely they'll be able to work out a trade and the risk of getting "stuck" with him makes it not worth trying to tender and trade. And the reality is, there are guys like this available every year at this time. Larnach will get an MLB job and will probably be an ok contributor. But it shouldn't be with the Twins.

[bean5302]

Non-tendering Larnach would be pretty similar to Tampa non-tendering CJ Cron back before the 2019 season. There is precedent for it.

Personally, I would non-tender him. Larnach is lefty hitting, platoon DH. He's getting expensive for that role at a projected $6.3MM, and I don't think he'll repeat his performance.

I also believe a savvy front office could sign/trade. That is not THIS front office who tries and fails in that approach time after time after time while hamstringing the budget and roster build in the process.

[Karbo]

I don't get why some of these writers seem high on Roden. He hasn.t showed much with the bat, he's another LH OF. Is it worth it to hold on to another LH outfielder for defense? Larnach is a bit of a liability on defense, but what I've seen watching the games for several years, I'd rather see him coming to the plate as a pinch hitter than Roden.  I do think Larnach has trade value, and if something good comes up trade him. But not just letting him go in favor of Roden

[Jeff K]

50 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

If Larnach were RH we wouldn't be having this conversation, but he isn't so we're doing this dance again. 

I think the right thing is to non-tender him. It's not that he's not worth the money, it's that he's not worth the roster spot. There's really very little reason to believe that there's much more ceiling for Larnach at his age. There's more likelihood that he'll get worse as he ages and pick up more injuries (this is not exactly a player with years of great health either). He's best suited to being a platoon DH who can occasionally play RF for you and he doesn't add anything for you except hitting. He's just finished his best season as a pro, and it still only amounted to 1.4 bWAR.

Keeping Larnach probably helps keep your floor up, but it lowers your ceiling. The best opportunity the Twins have to raise their ceiling is by playing Rodriguez & Jenkins and having them live up to their talent. And they still have other guys coming along who can step in if either struggles (Roden, Martin, Gonzalez, Mendez) who are all ready for MLB time right now. The opportunity cost by giving Larnach a roster spot is the real problem here. The money isn't terrible by any means, but could be better spent elsewhere.

The wrist surgery makes it much less likely they'll be able to work out a trade and the risk of getting "stuck" with him makes it not worth trying to tender and trade. And the reality is, there are guys like this available every year at this time. Larnach will get an MLB job and will probably be an ok contributor. But it shouldn't be with the Twins.

Pretty much sums things up for me.  It's about the opportunity costs.  Taking AB's away from the youngsters and dollars out of the payroll budget; whatever it maybe.  Thanks Trevor for your years with the team.  Good luck somewhere else.  I do believe another team will take a chance, but the Twins can't tender him and risk having to keep him.

[jmlease1]

14 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I don't get why some of these writers seem high on Roden. He hasn.t showed much with the bat, he's another LH OF. Is it worth it to hold on to another LH outfielder for defense? Larnach is a bit of a liability on defense, but what I've seen watching the games for several years, I'd rather see him coming to the plate as a pinch hitter than Roden.  I do think Larnach has trade value, and if something good comes up trade him. But not just letting him go in favor of Roden

Roden is cheaper, younger, a better defender, has more positional flexibility (he's played some 1B and can play either corner, even if he's only an emergency option in CF now) and can add value on the bases. Limited sample last season, but he finished the season with an OPS+ of 117. Larnach? OPS+ of 120. It's not just about defense; Roden's track record suggests that he can be as good offensively as Larnach and add more things at a lower price. And if he doesn't perform, you can move off him without eating cash. There's more risk with Roden; he doesn't have anywhere near the MLB track record. But he's crushed AAA, showed something at the end of 2026, and has some upside.

But we're not really advocating for Roden over Larnach; it's Jenkins over Larnach, with Roden battling for the last spot on the roster and pushing the other guys to perform. That said, there's a very reasonable chance Roden out-performs Larnach if given enough opportunity.

[farmerguychris]

I like Larnach, so this comment comes despite being his fan....But we need to do one of two things - 1: try to trade him now (even for a lottery ticket).  No more offering him Arb and then hoping we can trade him.  2:  If you can't get anything for him - move on.  For a team like our Twins, you can't pay what he'll require with so much cheaper talent behind him ready to go.  I'll continue to be a fan once he's gone, but keeping him just doesn't make sense.