Reviewing Minnesota’s Post-Hype Prospects 2026 Performance

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Reese Strickland - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Entering the 2026 season, I ranked the Minnesota Twins’ post-hype prospects based on several factors. The list considered each player’s previous prospect pedigree, where they stood in their development, their expected role with the Twins, their potential impact on this year’s roster, and how important they could be to the organization’s long-term plans.

Now, as the 2026 season winds to a close, it is becoming increasingly clear that this group does not look quite as much like the foundation of the Twins’ next competitive team. Some players have taken meaningful steps forward, while others have seen their stock fall considerably.

With that in mind, here is a reranking of the eight players featured in the preseason article.

8. SP Simeon Woods Richardson

Preseason Rank: 6

Woods Richardson’s 2026 season could hardly have gone worse. The right-hander pitched poorly enough to finish with -1.3 rWAR, eventually getting dropped from the Twins’ 40-man roster and claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. A player who once looked like one of Minnesota’s more dependable young starting pitchers is now with his third organization of the season.

There was plenty of reason to believe Woods Richardson could settle into the middle of Minnesota’s rotation entering the season. Instead, everything fell apart in 2026. That makes him an easy choice for the bottom of this list.

7. OF Matt Wallner

Preseason Rank: 2

Wallner was one of the biggest disappointments among the group. After entering the season with the potential to become a legitimate 30-home-run threat, Wallner stumbled out of the gate. In 34 games, he posted -1.3 rWAR and a 55 OPS+. The Twins eventually demoted him to Triple-A in the middle of May.

Wallner has gotten much closer to that 30-homer mark as the season progressed, but most of that production has come in a St. Paul Saints uniform. At this point, it is difficult to see where Wallner fits into Minnesota’s long-term plans. His power remains intriguing, but the overall offensive profile and defensive limitations have made it increasingly difficult for the Twins to give him a consistent role.

6. OF Trevor Larnach

Preseason Rank: 8

Larnach moves up the rankings, but there is an important caveat. This is largely a product of the players above him falling out of favor rather than Larnach suddenly establishing himself as a cornerstone player.

He has posted a 116 OPS+ this season, which is better than his 105 OPS+ for his career. That is certainly respectable production, but there still needs to be more from a left-handed corner outfielder who is protected from facing left-handed pitching and provides little defensive value. The Twins have plenty of decisions to make with their outfield this winter, and it is difficult to see Larnach having a clear path to significant playing time in 2027.

5. OF Austin Martin

Preseason Rank: 7

Martin also climbs the rankings, although much like Larnach, the move has more to do with what happened to the players around him. In 112 games, Martin has posted a 93 OPS+. His second half has been particularly underwhelming, as he is hitting .190/.314/.328 (.642) with six extra-base hits in 28 games.

There is at least one intriguing piece of the puzzle. Martin has posted a .799 OPS against left-handed pitching, giving the Twins a potential platoon option. That could be enough to earn him a backup outfield role next season. It is not the outcome many envisioned when Martin arrived in Minnesota, but it would at least give him a path to remaining on the roster.

4. IF Royce Lewis

Preseason Rank: 1

I bought into the Royce Lewis hype. The Twins spent the winter talking up Lewis, and I naively bought into the messaging. Unfortunately, his performance early in the season did little to justify that optimism. Like Wallner, Lewis struggled enough that Minnesota eventually sent him to Triple-A. He responded by going on a tear in St. Paul, earning his way back to the big leagues.

The results since his return have been better, but not nearly good enough for the role the Twins need him to fill. In 82 games since returning, Lewis is hitting .254/.311/.431 (.742). That might be acceptable for some positions, but it is not enough production from a first baseman.

The Twins will have a significant decision to make with Lewis this winter. His talent is becoming less evident, but the organization needs to determine whether there is enough remaining upside to justify giving him another opportunity.

3. SP Zebby Matthews

Preseason Rank: 3

Matthews is probably the most interesting player on this list heading into the offseason. There was a stretch in August when he looked like one of the best young pitchers in the American League. He posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to a .633 OPS.

There was a legitimate argument for Matthews to win the American League’s Pitcher of the Month award. He went 5-0 during August, and the Twins won just 10 games during the entire month.

That is a remarkable run for a young pitcher trying to establish himself. Matthews has run out of gas in September, much like the rest of Minnesota’s roster. Still, August demonstrated why the Twins remain interested in his future. The biggest question heading into the offseason could be whether Matthews belongs in the rotation or whether his skill set would be better utilized in the bullpen.

2. IF Brooks Lee

Preseason Rank: 4

Many fans will remember Lee’s first half for his struggles at shortstop. He finished with -6 Outs Above Average at the position, creating plenty of questions about where he would ultimately fit defensively.

The second half of the equation has been much more encouraging. Lee has hit 20-plus home runs for the first time in his career, and his move to third base has been a revelation. He has posted 5 OAA at the hot corner, giving Minnesota a much clearer picture of where he belongs defensively.

Offensively, Lee remains one of the streakier hitters in the organization. His splits as a switch-hitter are particularly interesting, as he has struggled considerably more from the right side. His OPS from that side is 212 points lower.

Still, there is enough here to believe Lee has a future with the Twins. Assuming nothing changes this winter, it looks like Lee will be penciled into the starting third-base job for 2027.

1. SP Taj Bradley

Preseason Rank: 5

Bradley has been the biggest surprise of this group. He is having a tremendous season and should win the Twins’ Pitcher of the Year award. Through 29 starts, Bradley has posted a 3.81 ERA, 110 ERA+, 27.3 K% and 10.3 BB%. There were flashes of this pitcher during his time with Tampa Bay, but Bradley never consistently put everything together with the Rays.

He has done that in Minnesota. Bradley has accumulated 3.8 rWAR for the Twins this season, while Griffin Jax has posted -0.1 rWAR with Tampa Bay. Obviously, there is plenty of time remaining on both players’ careers, but at this point, the Twins are the clear winners of that trade.

More importantly, Bradley has established himself as one of the most important pieces of Minnesota’s pitching staff moving forward. That makes him the clear No. 1 on this year’s post-hype prospect rankings.

The biggest takeaway from this reranking is just how much the picture has changed in one season. Lewis went from No. 1 to No. 4. Wallner dropped from No. 2 to No. 7. Meanwhile, Bradley jumped from No. 5 all the way to No. 1, while Lee and Matthews have both strengthened their cases to remain part of the organization’s future.

That is ultimately what makes post-hype prospects so fascinating. Their prospect status may have faded, but they still have an opportunity to rewrite the story once they reach the major leagues. For some members of this group, 2026 was the year they finally established themselves. For others, it may have been the season that ended their time as legitimate pieces of the Twins’ future.

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How do you view the re-rankings? How would you rank this group? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Blyleven2011]

Prospect hype , I try not to listen to it , some have a 10 plus year career and some just fade away …

[rv78]

#4 through #7 should follow #8 out the door. Anything less and the FO is NOT doing their job.

[Fatbat]

Royce will likely get one last look but 5-7 have been replaced by high upside rookies. A nice crop of more rookies in ‘27&’28 will build a much deeper and better team. Crazy to think the Erod Culpepper and Jenkins are all going to chase the ‘27 ROY! 

[D.C Twins]

40 minutes ago, rv78 said:

#4 through #7 should follow #8 out the door. Anything less and the FO is NOT doing their job.

Yep... time to finish the inevitable reset that they resisted at the deadline

[LastOnePicked]

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Crazy to think the Erod Culpepper and Jenkins are all going to chase the ‘27 ROY! 

According to Gleeman, Culpepper will be ineligible for ROY consideration next season. We'll see about Jenkins and ERod. I think they'll be good, but not ROY candidates.

[LastOnePicked]

At the start of the season, I really still had hope for Martin and Lewis. Sadly, if they're going to click, it'll probably be somewhere else at this point.

But if they do click somewhere else, the Twins really need to start some deep soul-searching about why it's not happening here for top prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

At the start of the season, I really still had hope for Martin and Lewis. Sadly, if they're going to click, it'll probably be somewhere else at this point.

But if they do click somewhere else, the Twins really need to start some deep soul-searching about why it's not happening here for top prospects.

I'm still interested in Martin.  Ship has sailed on Lewis.

[Linus]

Assuming the Twins don’t find a big bat to DH, I would bring Wallner back and give him a chance to be the DH. If he struggles you simply release him at any time. A bit of a long shot but the reward would be substantial. 

[Eris]

23 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

According to Gleeman, Culpepper will be ineligible for ROY consideration next season.

I am not sure this is correct. 
MLB rules

<=130 at bats, <=45 days on active roster, IL doesn’t count (unlike service time calculations). 

Culpepper  120 PA (from FanGraphs), BR indicates 109 AB, called up Aug 7, IL on Sept 16.  This is 41 days  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility

[TheLeviathan]

43 minutes ago, Linus said:

Assuming the Twins don’t find a big bat to DH, I would bring Wallner back and give him a chance to be the DH. If he struggles you simply release him at any time. A bit of a long shot but the reward would be substantial. 

Agreed, I'd give him one more shot.  This team has to embrace that next year ain't it.  If you have guys you can invest some playing time in that still have a hope of upside....do it.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

According to Gleeman, Culpepper will be ineligible for ROY consideration next season. We'll see about Jenkins and ERod. I think they'll be good, but not ROY candidates.

Gleeman tweeted this morning that because of the hamstring injury Culpepper will be eligible for ROY consideration next year.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Assuming the Twins don’t find a big bat to DH, I would bring Wallner back and give him a chance to be the DH. If he struggles you simply release him at any time. A bit of a long shot but the reward would be substantial. 

I think Wallner is done with the Twins, they have pretty much signaled this with not calling him this year.  It is probably best for both sides that they move on at this point.

And that would be good, because having a DH only bat clogs the bench, you can rotate it among the outfielders just like they have in St. Paul.

[gman]

I would like to say that the Twins need to make faster judgement calls on some players, but then you need someone waiting in the wings to replace them with. The twins haven't had that luxury and neither do most teams.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

#4 through #7 should follow #8 out the door. Anything less and the FO is NOT doing their job.

Yep. One of the goals I had for this season is figuring out once and for all if these 25-28 year old players are fixtures on the next contending team. None of them are. Let’s move on. 

[Czelgert]

The only way Lewis comes back next season is if the organization has failed to solve 1B.  There is no more potential for him in Minnesota because he is what he is at this point.  

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Czelgert said:

The only way Lewis comes back next season is if the organization has failed to solve 1B.  There is no more potential for him in Minnesota because he is what he is at this point.  

What he is at this point is a cheap utility infielder. They could use one of those.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

What he is at this point is a cheap utility infielder. They could use one of those.

I'm not sure he could handle that. 

 

[DJL44]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure he could handle that. 

He has handled it this season. 77 games at 1B, 38 at 3B, 15 at 2B. That’s a utility infielder.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He has handled it this season. 77 games at 1B, 38 at 3B, 15 at 2B. That’s a utility infielder.

He's not playing utility... He was the full time third and then first baseman. 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not playing utility... He was the full time third and then first baseman. 

If he’s the full time first baseman then why do I see Caratini there occasionally with Royce at 2B?

[High heat]

Well if nothing else you found out you don’t have much, and time to move on, might mean full rebuild this offseason.  
 

Taj is a playoff caliber starter and Brooks Lee is an average starting 3B.  Zebby likely needs to move to the bullpen. The rest can be cut or traded for a few bag of balls. 
 

Lewis has zero consistency (may have even just turned back into a pumpkin)and likely fell behind Clemens.

Austin Martin hasn’t hit since May and has had about 4 good months his entire big league career.

[SE23]

I don't understand what anyone expects to see from Martin or Lewis next year that hasn't already been revealed. The numbers and the eye test match up. Their spots on the roster must be upgraded for the Twins to move forward.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, SE23 said:

I don't understand what anyone expects to see from Martin or Lewis next year that hasn't already been revealed.

I think people fear a Rooker situation. Or something like that. You cut bait too soon on a All-Star.

[Danchat]

18 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I think people fear a Rooker situation. Or something like that. You cut bait too soon on a All-Star.

Rooker had 230 PAs as a Twin before they moved him, Martin is almost at 800 and Lewis is nearly at 1500. There's no comparison to be had there. That would be like moving off Roden now, who just so happens to be at 232 PAs. (And yes, I understand you're not the one making that argument.) 

[mikelink45]

Interesting - I definitely get rid of 4 - 7. Lewis is a big disappointment, and Martin has never done anything to make me like him on the roster.  Larnach is going to be priced out of the Twins plans and was should be higher than Martin. 

[DocBauer]

Long way to get to a point, but I want Ross and Kreidler to fight it out in ST next year for the Super Utility role. Ross has options, Kreidler doesn't, so he probably wins the job initially. I also really want them to pick up a Marwin type, or a better version of a Salono who can provide a half way decent bat and cover 1B/2B/3B as a second INF utility role. 

Now, Lewis would be a great choice for that job, even at $4 1/2-5M with an arbitration raise. But I believe he considers himself a starter, and I just don't know that he would accept that role. The Twins absolutely need an upgrade at 1B. Someone who can play competent defense, and hit decently, and crank out 20+HR in the middle of the lineup. IDK that there is a FA option available for that job. It might have to come via trade. It could be a rebuilding team looking for prospects and not seeing their 1B as part of the future. It could be a 3B who would be better at 1B, or even an OF with 1B experience who would move there full time. But I'd like to get someone we can put in place for at least 2yrs instead of making 1B a revolving door.

I just think it's time to move on from Royce and let him start over somewhere else. If he finds some consistency elsewhere, we just live with that knowing we upgraded at 1B. It's just time for a change.

And I really believe they should look to upgrade the 5th OF spot from Martin. He's not a bad ballplayer. He's really improved his defense and he hits LHP well. But he has virtually no power, and for all his speed, he's not much of a base stealer. With the top 4 OF pretty much set for 2027, the 5th man could be ANY of Roden, Gonzalez, Mendez, or even Rosario. But they could also spend around $5M for a veteran BAT who can play some corner OF, PH, and even DH once in a while. I had my eye on someone like Grichuk the last couple of years. But he's 35yo now, even though he's had a good season. Maybe him or someone similar? Nothing wrong with a fairly inexpensive veteran OF to be the Twins #5 OF for 250-300 AB/PA.

While the #5 OF is far less of a priority than a full time 1B, I still believe we should be looking to improve everywhere we can. And I think replacing BOTH of Lewis and Martin are needed steps.

Larnach and Wallner should be OUT. And it gives me no pleasure to say that. Larnach, even with a mostly solid 2026, has never become we hoped for. And Wallner has regressed defensively from OK to poor. And for some reason, despite being young, he suddenly can't hit anything at 95mph or higher. WTH happened to him all of a sudden? BOTH might hold value to a team needing some LH hitting with punch/power. But IDK if either has much trade value. Maybe a lower level flyer to get something back?

And again, it's time for changes. We just can't keep running it back at this time hoping for better results. Especially with TOP prospects arriving and others knocking at the door.

And I have ZERO idea what the hell happened to SWR. He went from a decent, solid rotation arm...who took a MAJOR step at the end of 2025 with his new splitter...to a pitcher who either couldn't throw a strike, or if he did, it was hammered. He's already on his 3rd team this season. And if I'm not mistaken, didn't the Jays DFA him twice?? This isn't an error by the Twins. Something went really wrong with him in 2026. Maybe someone gets the better version of him on a flyer? I wish him the best.

But NOW to the POSITIVE:

Matthews has remained somewhat inconsistent. But in retrospect, his high ERA this season has really been the result of a handful of bad performances. Before he was "sent down", for about 24 hours, he had quality starts in something like 6 of 9 starts. And then he had a tremendous August, followed by at least 1 clunker in September, followed by another recent great start. While he could still end up in the pen, I think he's really shown a lot of development this season overall. Perfection is not the answer. But a little more consistency could make him a rotation staple if he can just find that little more consistency that he's missing.

Lee has impressed me at 3B. And it seems his bat came more to life after the move as well. For the UPTEENTH time, I remind everyone he came in 2026 with 1 1/2 seasons of MLB. He's by no means a seasoned player at that point. It looks like he'll never be the HITTER we envisioned, but he's developed more power than expected. (I'd still like to see more DBLS). He keeps improving from his HALF rookie season, to 2025, and to this season. Now that he's comfortable at 3B, I expect even better defense and another raise in his offensive numbers in 2027.

Lastly is Bradley. I think he's arguably had the best season of his career in 2026. But a caveat remains. When he suffered his injury, he was on a ROLL. Then he got, IIRC, a single rehab start and was brought back. (Probably out of urgency). And he was pretty mediocre his first 4 starts or so. And then he seemed to get in a groove and look much more like his 1st half self. He's had a really solid season. And I know it's "cherry picking", but if we take away his first few starts away from probably being rushed back, he's performed like a front of the rotation starter all season. 

It's a good OP. It reminds us of previous hope, that unfortunately didn't turn out, but also some positives that DID turn out this season.

It also proves that it's just time to move away from some players that may or may not have been part of the problem directly for the past few seasons, but they sure aren't part of the solution going forward.

Change is in the air. IDEALLY, the winds of change would have taken place in July and not August and September. And Abel wouldn't have been hurt. But it IS TIME to embrace the changes going forward. As well as letting go of the past.