Which Hitter Cost the Twins the Most Down-the-Stretch?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Twins spent much of the summer hovering around the American League playoff picture. For a team that bought at the trade deadline, the final weeks have been a frustrating reminder of how quickly things can unravel.

Minnesota's offense has played a major role in that collapse. There have been injuries, inconsistent production, and several players who simply haven't delivered at the plate when the team needed them most. Some struggles have come from players who were never expected to carry the lineup. Others have come from hitters who were supposed to be important pieces of the offense.

So, which hitter has cost the Twins the most down the stretch? There are four primary candidates.

4. Royce Lewis
34 G: 0.3 fWAR, 95 wRC+, -0.13 WPA

Lewis has experienced a roller coaster ride of a season. His poor first-half performance resulted in a demotion to Triple-A, but he returned to Minnesota and looked like a different hitter. Over his first 45 games back with the Twins, Lewis posted a .745 OPS and appeared to be settling into a new role at first base.

Unfortunately, that improvement hasn't continued. Since August 1, Lewis has posted a .702 OPS while striking out 32 times in 140 plate appearances. Those numbers aren't disastrous, but they aren't what Minnesota needs from an everyday first baseman either.

Lewis isn't the worst offender on this list because his overall production has remained somewhat respectable. However, the Twins need more from a player who is receiving everyday at-bats, particularly when the team is trying to stay alive in the postseason race.

3. Victor Caratini
14 G: -0.1 fWAR, 44 wRC+, -0.25 WPA

Remember when Caratini looked like one of the best hitters on the roster? For a stretch in the middle of the season, it seemed like Caratini flipped a switch as soon as Ryan Jeffers landed on the injured list. He became one of Minnesota's hottest hitters, and there were even some writers who suggested the Twins might be comfortable trading Jeffers because Caratini was performing so well <Cough, whoops, cough>. 

The problem is that Caratini has gone in the opposite direction down the stretch. Since August 1, he has collected just five hits. That's not a typo. His recent struggles have become significant enough that the Twins have leaned heavily on Jeffers, starting him in nine straight games recently.

Caratini's season was much better than these numbers suggest, but his collapse came at a terrible time. It also raises some uncomfortable questions about Minnesota's catching depth heading into 2027.

2. Ryan Kreidler
27 G: -0.2 fWAR, 22 wRC+, -0.51 WPA

Kreidler's recent struggles have been difficult to watch because of how promising his season looked earlier in the year. When the Twins sent Royce Lewis to the minors, Brooks Lee moved over to third base, opening the door for Kreidler to take over the everyday shortstop job.

That wasn't necessarily a bad thing. From May 1 through June 30, Kreidler posted an .822 OPS while providing solid defense at shortstop. He looked like a player who could potentially give Minnesota quality production at an important position. Then the bat disappeared. Since August 1, Kreidler is slashing .128/.226/.191 for a .418 OPS with 15 strikeouts in 54 plate appearances. That's not just below average. That's almost unplayable.

The Twins didn't need Kreidler to become an All-Star. They simply needed him to provide competent at-bats while holding down a back-up bench role. Instead, his offensive production has cratered at precisely the wrong time.

1. Trevor Larnach
28 G: -0.1 fWAR, 73 wRC+, -0.44 WPA

Larnach takes the top spot because his struggles come with the highest expectations and the fewest excuses. We've seen this story before. Larnach's defensive profile is below average, which means his bat has to carry more than its share of the workload. When he's hitting, that tradeoff can make sense. When he's not, there isn't much left to justify keeping him in the lineup.

Since August 1, Larnach is slashing .200/.258/.367 for a .624 OPS with seven extra-base hits in 97 plate appearances. That's simply not enough from a corner outfielder on a team trying to make the playoffs. Larnach has also been worth -5 OAA for the season, making his offensive struggles even more problematic. If the bat isn't producing, the Twins aren't getting enough value from the rest of his game to compensate.

And that's why he tops this list. There is also a bigger organizational question here. Larnach has had opportunities to establish himself as part of Minnesota's long-term plans, but the consistency hasn't been there. With the Twins entering an offseason where almost every roster spot should be evaluated, there is little reason to continue giving him at-bats simply because he has been around for a while.

The Verdict

There isn't one player responsible for Minnesota falling out of the playoff race. Baseball doesn't work that way. But when evaluating which hitters have hurt the Twins most down the stretch, Larnach stands out. His offensive production has been well below what the team needs from a corner outfielder, and his defensive shortcomings make the decline even more damaging.

Kreidler's recent collapse has been more dramatic statistically, while Caratini's downturn has exposed the lack of catching depth behind Jeffers. Lewis, meanwhile, hasn't been terrible, but he also hasn't produced enough to justify being an everyday first baseman.

The bigger issue is that Minnesota has had too many players struggling simultaneously. A contender can survive one cold bat. It becomes much harder when multiple lineup spots become automatic outs.

The Twins spent much of the summer close enough to the playoff picture to make the postseason feel realistic. Their inability to get enough production from these four hitters helped turn that possibility into another disappointing September. And with the offseason approaching, the front office has plenty of decisions to make about who should still be getting those at-bats in 2027.

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How would you rank the players above? Should someone else make the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[ashbury]

Now that the Twins have (tacitly) waved the white flag on the season, I would like to see a stop to platooning.  No, I would go even farther if I had any say: Anti-Platoon!  Go to every length possible to find out which batters are at least "playable" when the opposing manager brings in a reliever of the same hand.  Of course I want our batters to pulverize the opposition when handedness is favorable, but they'll get the most chances to do that if they can survive the unfavorable matchups.

If the batters named in this article can redeem themselves this way during the final few weeks, it would perhaps mean something.

[HarmonK03]

And Clemens who got more AB's a couple of the people mentioned above had a horrible August until the last week and he gets no mention.

[jkcarew]

If you’re going to use counting/cumulative numbers like WAR and WPA, don’t you need to include Buxton’s -0.67 WPA and -0.3 WAR from July on? Very big impact despite the relatively low number of games played. The “why” doesn’t matter if we’re looking at impact to team performance.

[mnfireman]

Minnesota Twins batters sorted by WPA since August 1st (worst at top of list):

[Whitey333]

I would switch Larnach and Lewis in this rating.  IMO much more is expected of Lewis.  He is currently hitting like .172 in his last 22 games.  I do know there is a lot of Larnach haters here especially those submitting articles.  Yes we wall wish he would be hitting like .275 like he did for a good chunk of the season.  But he is what he is.  I think given the season as a whole hes done well.  Thus organizations insistence of using a platoon system us maddening.  I guess you could also add Buxton to your list.  However after 12 years of his limited ability do play and contribute we just get used to rim hurt and when he does played hurt hes not very good.  A healthy and producing Buxton would have done wonder.  But you cant count on him.

 

[bjorks]

43 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

And Clemens who got more AB's a couple of the people mentioned above had a horrible August until the last week and he gets no mention.

I guess in a way the team MVP could be both...not disagreeing and I'm a huge Clemens defender...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

41 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Minnesota Twins batters sorted by WPA since August 1st (worst at top of list):

So, the reality is that only about four regular players actually contributed something positive for the month.  Yikes.  That's not going to get it done.  

[thelanges5]

Messing around with Buxton‘s injury was probably near the top of the list. 

[TheLeviathan]

Buxton, Clemens, and Jeffers also should be mentioned.  This team's offense was always going to be closer to the dregs than the best in the league.  Regression hit hard.

[PuckettPond]

Buxton needs to do the honorable thing & retire as we have Jenkins & Erod. 

[RpR]

Kreidler's glove was the main reason he played; plugged the gaping hole created with Gray and Lee.

[Coach]

How is Buxton exempt from this?