There’s a Real Path for Vahn Lackey to Reach the Twins Next Season

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Well-rounded catchers are extremely rare. It’s one thing to find a catcher who can hit; it’s another to find one who’s legit behind the plate. Finding a catcher who can do both at a high level is difficult, because the types of athleticism that each facet of the job requires don't overlap perfectly, and because of the immense amount of practice, development and preparation that each set of skills requires, independent of one another.

That’s exactly what the Twins’ first-round draft pick, Vahn Lackey, has the chance to turn into, though. Since making his professional debut in late July, Lackey has done just about everything you could ask a 21-year-old catcher to do. It’s still extremely early, and he’s only played in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but Lackey is turning heads as a pro the same way he did late in his collegiate career.

Across his first 103 professional plate appearances, Lackey is hitting just .224. That number doesn’t exactly jump off the page. But once you start digging deeper, it becomes pretty clear why there should be plenty of excitement surrounding what he’s doing. Despite the low batting average, Lackey owns an absurd .417 on-base percentage and a strong .435 slugging average. He’s already logged eight extra-base hits and seven stolen bases, showcasing the impressive athleticism that helped make him such an intriguing prospect.

He also has already drawn 23 walks, compared to just 21 strikeouts. The patience and discipline he has shown have been remarkable. Making the jump from college baseball to professional baseball is difficult for just about every player. The pitching is better, and young hitters are forced to adjust quickly. It’s common to see a player's plate discipline lag behind early, as they get used to facing more advanced arms. But not Lackey. His chase rate is sitting at around 20%. If pitchers aren’t going to attack him—which they haven’t done much so far—he isn’t going to give them strikes.

Obviously, there is still a long way to go. Lackey will need to continue proving that he can handle better competition as he climbs through the farm system. But based on what we’ve seen so far, it’s hard not to wonder just how quickly the Twins could move him. There’s a chance Vahn Lackey is the Twins’ everyday catcher at this time next year. That might sound a little aggressive. The Twins have been fairly deliberate with some of their top prospects this season, and Lackey has been in pro ball for a month. But there are a couple of reasons why this possibility isn’t completely crazy.

For one, odds are pretty good that Ryan Jeffers is currently playing his final month as a Twin. Jeffers is set to become a free agent after this season, and considering the way he's performed, he’s going to get paid. It’s hard to imagine the Twins being the team willing to give him a huge salary over multiple seasons, given the way they approach the catcher spot. They could always give him the qualifying offer, which would be worth roughly $24 million, but it's unlikely. The only scenario where it would make sense is if the Twins knew for a fact that Jeffers was going to turn it down. In that case, Minnesota would receive a compensatory draft pick.

If Jeffers leaves, the Twins would still have Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson around next season. That would give them a couple of experienced options behind the plate, but things can change quickly. Injuries and trades happen, and the Twins have also carried three catchers for a good portion of this season. There’s certainly a path for Lackey to force his way into the conversation. Unlike some of the other top prospects in the organization, Lackey could be fast-tracked.

The Twins have slow-played some of their best prospects this season, but Lackey is a different profile than guys like Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper. Culpepper was a first-round pick himself, but he wasn’t selected third overall like Lackey. Historically, it’s fairly common to see players drafted that high out of college move through the minor leagues quickly and make their major-league debut the following season. Jenkins was also a top-five pick, but his situation was obviously different. He was drafted out of high school, so the Twins needed to give him more time to develop before throwing him into the major leagues. Even so, Jenkins is now in the majors at just 21 years old.

Lackey will obviously have to continue producing at a high level if a major-league promotion is even going to be in the conversation next season. The Twins aren't going to rush him just because of where he was drafted. His production so far (in however small a sample size) makes the conversation worth having, though. He's already shown the ability to control the strike zone, get on base, hit for extra bases, and steal bases. He brings athleticism you don't see from many players at the position, and if his defensive tools continue developing the way the Twins believe they can, Minnesota could have something special on its hands.

It might not be the likeliest outcome. Plenty of things would have to go right over the next year. But I absolutely think there is a world where Vahn Lackey is the Twins’ everyday catcher 12 months from now. After what we’ve seen from him so far, it’s becoming harder and harder not to get excited about that possibility.

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[DJL44]

2027 is quite unlikely. The Twins would need to be contending and in desperate need of a catcher. 2028 could happen.

[LambchoP]

He's played 8 games in high A. I'd be shooting for 2028 at best. Meaning we need a legit catching tandem for the next two years. Rolling with Caratini and Jackson is going to leave us weak at that position. Maybe Diaw will be ready sometime in '27....

[MeleMouth]

"He also has already drawn 23 walks, compared to just 21 strikeouts."

This indicates very little for a college player in the low minors, other than he's not swinging very much, and Lackey isn't, because his HiA swing rate is below 30%. His contact percentage in HiA is 75%; it would be good for that to be higher, particularly for such a selective hitter. For comparison, at the same age and level, Rutschman was swinging at 39% of pitches and making contact on 81.5% of his swings. With a few exceptions, letting a lot of pitches go doesn't work as well as players move up the ladder and face better pitchers.

Why do we have to hype every new top prospect as some kind of semi-savior, where he'll be in the majors in 12 months and a frequent all-star a year or two from that? It doesn't do anyone any good and I would argue that, although it kind of feels good, it's actually somewhat harmful.

I'm not saying there's no chance for Lackey to become a great player, but that the blue sky in this article and others is based on a 100% outcome where everything goes great. Maybe that will happen, but history suggests that a median outcome for a player with Lackey's background is something like becoming a little better than Ryan Jeffers, who's a good player, but not an all-star. Writing up 100% outcomes is not analysis, but hope.

[thelanges5]

I didn’t hate the Caratini signing at the time but holy smokes, has he been bad. I’d like to see 2027 start with him on another team. They aren’t thinking that way, and his contract makes that unlikely. Catcher looks like a black hole of a position for 2027, but 2028 and beyond are looking bright!

[bjorks]

12 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

"He also has already drawn 23 walks, compared to just 21 strikeouts."

This indicates very little for a college player in the low minors, other than he's not swinging very much, and Lackey isn't, because his HiA swing rate is below 30%. His contact percentage in HiA is 75%; it would be good for that to be higher, particularly for such a selective hitter. For comparison, at the same age and level, Rutschman was swinging at 39% of pitches and making contact on 81.5% of his swings. With a few exceptions, letting a lot of pitches go doesn't work as well as players move up the ladder and face better pitchers.

Why do we have to hype every new top prospect as some kind of semi-savior, where he'll be in the majors in 12 months and a frequent all-star a year or two from that? It doesn't do anyone any good and I would argue that, although it kind of feels good, it's actually somewhat harmful.

I'm not saying there's no chance for Lackey to become a great player, but that the blue sky in this article and others is based on a 100% outcome where everything goes great. Maybe that will happen, but history suggests that a median outcome for a player with Lackey's background is something like becoming a little better than Ryan Jeffers, who's a good player, but not an all-star. Writing up 100% outcomes is not analysis, but hope.

But I don't disagree with 90% of what you said.

 

[bjorks]

11 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I didn’t hate the Caratini signing at the time but holy smokes, has he been bad. I’d like to see 2027 start with him on another team. They aren’t thinking that way, and his contract makes that unlikely. Catcher looks like a black hole of a position for 2027, but 2028 and beyond are looking bright!

I was scoffed at but didn't understand why (maybe no takers) they didn't explore moving him and is $6.5MM at the deadline. That number offsets the QO cost to Jeffers a bit, but hopefully they'll HAVE to spend for next year and resign Jeffers to a shorter type deal. 

[Rufus]

27 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I didn’t hate the Caratini signing at the time but holy smokes, has he been bad. I’d like to see 2027 start with him on another team. They aren’t thinking that way, and his contract makes that unlikely. Catcher looks like a black hole of a position for 2027, but 2028 and beyond are looking bright!

A catcher has more value to a team than just what he does at the plate.  How he handles pitchers.  throwing, pitch framing, challenging pitch call on and on.  

[DataNerd]

49 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I didn’t hate the Caratini signing at the time but holy smokes, has he been bad. I’d like to see 2027 start with him on another team. They aren’t thinking that way, and his contract makes that unlikely. Catcher looks like a black hole of a position for 2027, but 2028 and beyond are looking bright!

He hasn't been great, but you are seriously overestimating how bad a replacement level catcher is.  He's at 0.8 fWAR, and that would be higher if he didn't play 28 games at 1B/DH.

[Coach]

Butch Wynegar, from A ball to the Twins at just 20 yrs. old.  That worked out pretty good. 

[HerbieFan]

11 minutes ago, Coach said:

Butch Wynegar, from A ball to the Twins at just 20 yrs. old.  That worked out pretty good. 

Roll call.  Who in here is old enough to have watched Butch Wynegar play?  :)

[PuckettPond]

He will be our greatest drafted catcher & future HOF. Pleasure to watch defensively and his swing is Legendary! Lets figure out where at Target Field to place his statue. He is everything Twins fans want in a catcher. He will end up Minnesota's most loved after Walleye, TatorTot Hotdish & Sloppy Joes. Excited to see how he does in Spring training.

[1985Fan]

Yeah, we should tamp down the hype on Lackey. I’m sure he’s talented, but give him a little time. It sounds like he has the throwing and blocking down pat, but catching is such a demanding position that not rushing him to MLB would be the prudent thing to do. 
I would like to see the Twins work with Jeffers on a short term contract. With the lockout imminent, maybe he’d be willing to accept a one year deal close to the QO to get him back on the FA market when the dust settles on the CBA. Twins shouldn’t plan on Caratini being the primary catcher next year. I don’t mind Jackson as a defense first catcher as he’s an improvement defensively over Jeffers, but they’re going to miss Jeffers offense next year. 

[Andy MacPhail]

2 hours ago, Coach said:

Butch Wynegar, from A ball to the Twins at just 20 yrs. old.  That worked out pretty good. 

Caratini & Jackson aren't that great, but they're all we have right now & Caratini will be gone after next season. We really need a young catcher with options to take up the slack, be that safety net if either go down & be able to take over the primary catching duties after Caratini leaves. It's a tall order that I hope Lackey can fulfill but if he can't we need find someone who can until Lackey can. Tinney is still a long way away to get his glove up to snuff.

[rdehring]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Roll call.  Who in here is old enough to have watched Butch Wynegar play?  :)

Wasn't living here when he played, but expect I can raise my hand.

[bean5302]

I think there's a chance Lackey makes it to the Twins mid year next year, but that's only if everything goes right. 

Based on SSSS, it looks like he's going to need to make some adjustments. While he's not whiffing on pitches at only 8% swinging strike rate, he's been very passive, caught flat footed for a called strike 27% of the time. That's up there with Julien numbers.

Contact rates in this tiny sample size are also mixed. 30% line drives is great, but 54% pop up on fly balls is 5x higher than desirable. That said, MiLB batted ball data can be pretty sketch.

That said, Lackey's a high 1st round college draft pick, and the expectation is he'll move quickly.

[rdehring]

Agree with those who are talking about Jeffers being here next year.  Don't know if the Twins are considering the QO?  If they are, might make a ton of sense to offer $40M for two years or $55+ for three years.  As mentioned above, with all the uncertainties next year Jeffers just might take it.  On the other hand, considering who his agent is probably doubtful.  But the Twins are the only team he has ever known, he seems to like his teammates, and I expect he would be able to survive on $17-$20M per year. 

The key for the Twins would then be to trade Caratini, even if they need to eat a smallish part of his salary.  Would much rather have Jeffers and Jackson than Caratini and Jackson. 

[FlyingFinn]

Two things prevent Lackey from playing for the Twins in 2027 - 1) even great catchers usually don't move that fast through the minors, and 2) the Twins don't move their prospects real fast under this administration.

[Road trip]

I think it is unlikely we see Lackey next year.  5 to 10% chance if I'm forced to give odds.

But, as others have noted, Wynegar was only 20.  Joe Mauer was only 21, which is what Lackey will be next year. 

Times are a little different.  In Wynegar's era top players rarely went to college if they were relatively high picks.  That was somewhat less true in Mauer's era.  Both of them spent their late teens in the minors, while Lackey was in college.  Now, perhaps Georgia Tech baseball is the equivalent of low A-ball talent with aluminum bats...maybe.  But that is still a good-sized gap.

Maybe Lackey dominates AA and AAA.  Maybe the Twins decide Diaw is an outfielder only.  Maybe the Twins are in a pennant race, and need catching help in August due to injury or poor performance by others, and bring Lackey up?  That's a whole lot of maybes of varying likelihood that have to break right to see Lackey in 2027.  It isn't impossible, but the stars have to align.