Is Connor Prielipp's Rotation Spot in Jeopardy?

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of David Frerker - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Connor Prielipp's season has been a roller coaster, and it might be reaching the top of the final hill. He got roughed up again in his last outing, and with Joe Ryan potentially nearing a return, it's fair to start wondering whether Prielipp's spot in the Minnesota Twins rotation is safe down the stretch.

To be clear, this isn't a total surprise. We knew going in that a season like this was possible for a young arm still finding his footing at the big-league level. Prielipp has flashed real promise in a number of his starts, but he's also been knocked around more than the Twins would like, and there's more behind that than simple growing pains.

Remember why the Twins were able to land him in the 2nd round of the 2022 MLB draft in the first place. Prielipp dealt with arm issues at Alabama, serious enough that a lot of evaluators thought of him as a future high-leverage reliever rather than a starter (if he was able to stay healthy at all). That path is still very much on the table; however, the Twins developed him as a starter, where he has shown promise. Early this season, there was a real question of whether he'd still be in the big-league rotation by the time September rolled around. While he’s shown that he could stick in the rotation, the bumps in the road have been real too. 

Unfortunately, we’re at the point where the innings conversation becomes impossible to ignore. Prielipp has thrown 99 innings with the Twins this year, already more than he's thrown in any professional season since joining the organization (and that's not even counting his innings with the St. Paul Saints). That workload alone had people speculating around the trade deadline about whether the Twins might shut him down or shift him to the bullpen to manage his innings. That combined with his roller coaster performance might force the Twins’ hand.

Across 19 starts, Prielipp owns a 5.55 ERA, which looks rough on the surface. But dig a little deeper and there's reason for some optimism. His FIP sits at 3.98, suggesting the results haven't matched the underlying performance. He's also carrying a strikeout minus walk rate of 15.6%, which is a solid number for a starting pitcher but could be proved upon by limiting walks.

The problem is his most recent stretch, aside from a 7.76 ERA (4.73 FIP), his primary pitch offering hasn't been getting smacked. Though his secondaries still look good (or at least okay), it's his fastball and that has suddenly lost its shine where hitters are batting .364 against the pitch. And when you connect that to the innings totals, it wouldn't be shocking if his arm is simply running out of gas as the season reaches its final month.

So what happens next? Joe Ryan's return is reportedly on the horizon, and that changes the math for everyone in the rotation. The last time a starter had to make room for a returning arm, it was Zebby Matthews who got optioned to Triple-A St. Paul.. It'll be worth watching whether the Twins take a similar approach with Prielipp, sending him down to St. Paul for a reset and a chance to fine-tune his fastball and changeup before the season wraps up. That's not a demotion in the way it might sound. It could be exactly what he needs.

There's also the bigger picture to consider if the Twins make a real push toward October. If we're talking about a playoff rotation, Ryan and Taj Bradley look like the top two options right now, with Dean Kramer as the likely third. That would put Prielipp in a bullpen role if he's part of an October roster at all.

None of this means Prielipp is a bust or that his future in a Twins uniform is in doubt. Quite the opposite. A pitcher with a 4.11 FIP and a strong strikeout-to-walk rate has real things to like, even if the ERA doesn't show it yet. The bigger question is how the Twins manage him the rest of the way. Do they give him a reset in St. Paul, similar to what they did with Royce Lewis earlier this year? 

I lean toward thinking a reset makes the most sense. Prielipp has already blown past his previous career high in innings, his fastball and changeup have clearly taken a hit lately, and there's no reason to push a talented young arm further into the danger zone in a season that may not have much playoff value attached to it anyway. Better to protect the asset now than risk a bigger issue down the road.

How do you think the Twins should handle Connor Prielipp over the next month? Should they option him down, shift him to the bullpen, or just ride it out? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[thelanges5]

Bring up Acton or Anderson on Sept 1 and they can piggyback w/Prielipp. Let him get 2x through the order. 

[HarmonK03]

Just now, thelanges5 said:

Bring up Acton or Anderson on Sept 1 and they can piggyback w/Prielipp. Let him get 2x through the order. 

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

[MeleMouth]

If the team had one goal, rebuilding, 2026 would have been a year to get Prielipp adjusted to innings and work on skills needed to succeed in major league baseball. But because the team had two goals, competing while rebuilding, Prielipp has been put into situations where the top goal isn't development, giving him contradictory goals. It would be great to shut him down now or just give him limited innings for the rest of the year, to work on specific skills with focus on 2027. 

[Hubie29]

7 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

Problem is Shelton has no clue what a short leash is. He's proved it over and over. 

[DJL44]

Joe Ryan is the only pitcher who might bump him out of the rotation.

If the Twins make it to October, then every single pitcher in the rotation will have had an outstanding September. They won’t make it any other way. They can’t win games at a .630 clip without outstanding starting pitching.

[Patzky]

Are the St Paul innings less a stress in his arm than the Minnesota innings? Or if they plan to use him in short appearances, we could do that as well. The batters are better here, but he's not likely to ease up as a Saint is he?

[Fatbat]

CP is a major leaguer but he has to be feeling the amount of innings by now.  It may be wise to put him on a glide path in September so he comes back even stronger in’27.  He has a bright future as long as his innings are manageable well!! 

[HarmonK03]

18 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Problem is Shelton has no clue what a short leash is. He's proved it over and over. 

Until the last couple of weeks, Shelton has actually done a fairly good job with the bullpen especially considering what he had to work with.  Planning for innings never works, you have to adapt to the game as it goes.

[Wedman13]

33 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

If the team had one goal, rebuilding, 2026 would have been a year to get Prielipp adjusted to innings and work on skills needed to succeed in major league baseball. But because the team had two goals, competing while rebuilding, Prielipp has been put into situations where the top goal isn't development, giving him contradictory goals. It would be great to shut him down now or just give him limited innings for the rest of the year, to work on specific skills with focus on 2027. 

This is not on the organization.  There are 25 teams competing and rebuilding every year.  You get the ball, you pitch the ball.  If and when hitters started laying of his tremendous slider, he's got nothing that fools anyone.  Not being critical, neither do I.  If he wants to succeed he's gonna need a knockout change up

[IndianaTwin]

9 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

I’m not arguing for piggybacking Prielipp, but the math does in change in September. The argument against piggybacking in the regular season is that it leaves a team with a seven-man bullpen. In September, with the extra pitcher, it still leaves an eight-man pen. In addition, the Twins have three off days left in the remaining 30 days, with only one streak of playing more than six consecutive days. 

In reality, his next start comes on Tuesday, the day the roster expands. Given that Ryan is being targeted for a rehab start “early next week,” I’d just give Prielipp his “normal” start on Tuesday, but with a shorter leash, and then either send him down or move him to the pen if Ryan returns the next time that spot comes around. If Ryan looks like only one rehab is needed, they could actually send Prielipp down after Tuesday and effectively have a 10-man bullpen for a few days until Ryan returns. 

 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m not arguing for piggybacking Prielipp, but the math does in change in September. The argument against piggybacking in the regular season is that it leaves a team with a seven-man bullpen. In September, with the extra pitcher, it still leaves an eight-man pen. In addition, the Twins have three off days left in the remaining 30 days, with only one streak of playing more than six consecutive days. 

In reality, his next start comes on Tuesday, the day the roster expands. Given that Ryan is being targeted for a rehab start “early next week,” I’d just give Prielipp his “normal” start on Tuesday, but with a shorter leash, and then either send him down or move him to the pen if Ryan returns the next time that spot comes around. If Ryan looks like only one rehab is needed, they could actually send Prielipp down after Tuesday and effectively have a 10-man bullpen for a few days until Ryan returns. 

 

Then the second pitcher coming in struggles in his first inning, what do you do.  Remember they did this with Abel in the first week of the season and kept him in because they had a plan of how many innings they wanted out of each pitcher.  And he should have come out in the 6th inning and not the 8th.

And what happens if Prielipp is cruising after 4 innings are you just going to pull because that is the plan, that is ridiculous.  The innings restriction is a TD narrative with no basis in science.  Either keep him as a starter or move him to the bullpen.

[SE23]

24 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Then the second pitcher coming in struggles in his first inning, what do you do.  Remember they did this with Abel in the first week of the season and kept him in because they had a plan of how many innings they wanted out of each pitcher.  And he should have come out in the 6th inning and not the 8th.

And what happens if Prielipp is cruising after 4 innings are you just going to pull because that is the plan, that is ridiculous.  The innings restriction is a TD narrative with no basis in science.  Either keep him as a starter or move him to the bullpen.

Prielipp is going to have to learn to make in-game adjustments for the 3rd time thru the order. A killer changeup wouldn't hurt either... 😁

[HarmonK03]

Just now, SE23 said:

Prielipp is going to have to learn to make in-game adjustments for the 3rd time thru the order. A killer changeup wouldn't hurt either... 😁

And he is only going to do that by pitching.  That is why Shelton left him a couple of weeks ago,  Maybe it was one or two batters too late when he got pulled but that is how they learn.

[SE23]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

And he is only going to do that by pitching.  That is why Shelton left him a couple of weeks ago,  Maybe it was one or two batters too late when he got pulled but that is how they learn.

Totally agree. 

[PuckettPond]

If the Twins do not pick in the top 5 in next year's draft the season will be a failure. We are not the Yankees, Dodgers & Cubs we are a small market team as we need to think smarter.

[mikelink45]

I just keep putting him out - instead of pitches and innings - I let him go until he gives up three runs and go from there.  Piggybacking means planning for failure.  Let him adjust. 

Seven games under 500 - I am really not thinking wild card.  I want to see the team do the things that will lead to a better 2027.  Plan the young guys and roll the dice.  

[rdehring]

Kid has a tremendous future.  Last several outings he was pitching ok-to-well until around the 5th inning when he flat out runs out of gas.  Everyone knew this was coming and I assume the Twins did as well.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, Wedman13 said:

This is not on the organization.  There are 25 teams competing and rebuilding every year.  You get the ball, you pitch the ball.  If and when hitters started laying of his tremendous slider, he's got nothing that fools anyone.  Not being critical, neither do I.  If he wants to succeed he's gonna need a knockout change up

Your comments actually demonstrate my point about how mixed goals work against long term success. Working on something like a "knockout change up" is exactly something a rebuilding team would have Prielipp do, but a competing team would shy away from.

[gman]

He has pitched 118 innings this year, including at ST Paul. I am not sure what his target for the year is, but I think at 37 more than last year he is probably at about his max. They could just have him throw in the bullpen the rest of the year and work on an off speed pitch of some sort.

There is no need to pitch him until his arm falls off. When next year comes, they will need him in the rotation not on the 60 day IL.

[Wedman13]

24 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Your comments actually demonstrate my point about how mixed goals work against long term success. Working on something like a "knockout change up" is exactly something a rebuilding team would have Prielipp do, but a competing team would shy away from.

I see your point and it's fair, but the greats can walk and chew gum.  But I suppose that is what the minors are for.  Zero people planned on him being a starting pitcher at MLB level this year but when 3 or 4 5ths (Pablo, joe, Abel, Ober) go down you need to scramble.

[PuckettPond]

When his career is over he will be the best LHP in Twins history.

[Jacksson]

No, it is not.

[MeleMouth]

42 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

When his career is over he will be the best LHP in Twins history.

Better than Jim Kaat, Frank Viola, or Johan Santana?

Highly doubtful.

[strumdatjag]

Keep sending him out there. Prielipp has shown the ability to pitch longer into games.  

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

I see your point and it's fair, but the greats can walk and chew gum.  But I suppose that is what the minors are for.  Zero people planned on him being a starting pitcher at MLB level this year but when 3 or 4 5ths (Pablo, joe, Abel, Ober) go down you need to scramble.

Who are these greats that could do it all when thrown into a pennant race? It's pretty rare.

Note that Prielipp has more fWAR this year, his first year, than Jacob Misiorowski had last year in his first year, more than Shohei Ohtani had his first year of pitching, and the same amount as Clayton Kershaw in his first year. For sake of comparison, he has more than Frank Viola had in his first two years combined.

It's unrealistic and dangerous to expect a pitcher, particularly one like Prielipp who's missed a lot of time with injuries, to unexpectedly step into a rotation as a rookie, have all his pitches, and be able to throw a full set of innings.

[LyleCole]

I think the move to the bullpen is way past due for Connor.   As a major league pitcher that is probably his best role.   He might have the stuff of a starting pitcher, but for all of his career the innings limit and arm concerns are going to linger.  In the last six seasons of baseball (including 2 years in Alabama) he has thrown 258 innings.   In 4 years of professional baseball that total is 220 innings. 

Move him to a relief role.  This will increase his velocity and movement, and mitigate the need for utilizing his secondary pitches.   I think he will be a very effective relief pitcher, and maybe a high end closer.

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

If the team had one goal, rebuilding, 2026 would have been a year to get Prielipp adjusted to innings and work on skills needed to succeed in major league baseball. But because the team had two goals, competing while rebuilding, Prielipp has been put into situations where the top goal isn't development, giving him contradictory goals. It would be great to shut him down now or just give him limited innings for the rest of the year, to work on specific skills with focus on 2027. 

Constantly repeating this moronic take in every thread doesn't make it true.

He's pitching in the rotation in the big leagues. There is absolutely nothing that could be done to prepare him to pitch in the rotation in the big leagues.

 

[MeleMouth]

32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Constantly repeating this moronic take in every thread doesn't make it true.

He's pitching in the rotation in the big leagues. There is absolutely nothing that could be done to prepare him to pitch in the rotation in the big leagues.

 

Oh, hey, you persuaded me with your logic of calling it "moronic." Data isn't needed in the face of the far superior logic of making insults and repeating slogans. And I guess the long-standing concept of working on pitches in the minors is irrelevant.

I'd have to say that you mischaracterize my argument. I'm not saying that he shouldn't be in the majors; I'm just saying that expecting him to have command of all of his pitches and to pitch a full slate of innings is unrealistic, and that giving him the mixed message of (1) develop yourself in the majors and (2) pitch like a key starter for a team trying to make the playoffs in the majors is contradictory.

[TCanWins]

"...if the Twins make a real push toward October." - they are not. Losing games they could win and bats going quiet after the first few innings is becoming a trend. Bullpen is tired and giving up runs late, blowing leads. Starters imploding by the 5th or 6th. The boys are tired, this team is not steam rolling home on win streaks, they've lost 7/10. Bats can't hit against bullpens, going down in <10 pitches in final innings with 0 hits or walks. Some positives with Culpepper, Jenkins, Lee an Keaschall getting hits but not enough to mount meaningful rallies. A lot has to change overnight for this team to make a meaningful push. Bring up some more young guys like ERod and let's have a glimmer of hope for 2027/8.