Is Connor Prielipp's Rotation Spot in Jeopardy?

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of David Frerker - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Connor Prielipp's season has been a roller coaster, and it might be reaching the top of the final hill. He got roughed up again in his last outing, and with Joe Ryan potentially nearing a return, it's fair to start wondering whether Prielipp's spot in the Minnesota Twins rotation is safe down the stretch.

To be clear, this isn't a total surprise. We knew going in that a season like this was possible for a young arm still finding his footing at the big-league level. Prielipp has flashed real promise in a number of his starts, but he's also been knocked around more than the Twins would like, and there's more behind that than simple growing pains.

Remember why the Twins were able to land him in the 2nd round of the 2022 MLB draft in the first place. Prielipp dealt with arm issues at Alabama, serious enough that a lot of evaluators thought of him as a future high-leverage reliever rather than a starter (if he was able to stay healthy at all). That path is still very much on the table; however, the Twins developed him as a starter, where he has shown promise. Early this season, there was a real question of whether he'd still be in the big-league rotation by the time September rolled around. While he’s shown that he could stick in the rotation, the bumps in the road have been real too. 

Unfortunately, we’re at the point where the innings conversation becomes impossible to ignore. Prielipp has thrown 99 innings with the Twins this year, already more than he's thrown in any professional season since joining the organization (and that's not even counting his innings with the St. Paul Saints). That workload alone had people speculating around the trade deadline about whether the Twins might shut him down or shift him to the bullpen to manage his innings. That combined with his roller coaster performance might force the Twins’ hand.

Across 19 starts, Prielipp owns a 5.55 ERA, which looks rough on the surface. But dig a little deeper and there's reason for some optimism. His FIP sits at 3.98, suggesting the results haven't matched the underlying performance. He's also carrying a strikeout minus walk rate of 15.6%, which is a solid number for a starting pitcher but could be proved upon by limiting walks.

The problem is his most recent stretch, aside from a 7.76 ERA (4.73 FIP), his primary pitch offering hasn't been getting smacked. Though his secondaries still look good (or at least okay), it's his fastball and that has suddenly lost its shine where hitters are batting .364 against the pitch. And when you connect that to the innings totals, it wouldn't be shocking if his arm is simply running out of gas as the season reaches its final month.

So what happens next? Joe Ryan's return is reportedly on the horizon, and that changes the math for everyone in the rotation. The last time a starter had to make room for a returning arm, it was Zebby Matthews who got optioned to Triple-A St. Paul.. It'll be worth watching whether the Twins take a similar approach with Prielipp, sending him down to St. Paul for a reset and a chance to fine-tune his fastball and changeup before the season wraps up. That's not a demotion in the way it might sound. It could be exactly what he needs.

There's also the bigger picture to consider if the Twins make a real push toward October. If we're talking about a playoff rotation, Ryan and Taj Bradley look like the top two options right now, with Dean Kramer as the likely third. That would put Prielipp in a bullpen role if he's part of an October roster at all.

None of this means Prielipp is a bust or that his future in a Twins uniform is in doubt. Quite the opposite. A pitcher with a 4.11 FIP and a strong strikeout-to-walk rate has real things to like, even if the ERA doesn't show it yet. The bigger question is how the Twins manage him the rest of the way. Do they give him a reset in St. Paul, similar to what they did with Royce Lewis earlier this year? 

I lean toward thinking a reset makes the most sense. Prielipp has already blown past his previous career high in innings, his fastball and changeup have clearly taken a hit lately, and there's no reason to push a talented young arm further into the danger zone in a season that may not have much playoff value attached to it anyway. Better to protect the asset now than risk a bigger issue down the road.

How do you think the Twins should handle Connor Prielipp over the next month? Should they option him down, shift him to the bullpen, or just ride it out? Join the conversation in the comments!

View full article

[thelanges5]

Bring up Acton or Anderson on Sept 1 and they can piggyback w/Prielipp. Let him get 2x through the order. 

[HarmonK03]

Just now, thelanges5 said:

Bring up Acton or Anderson on Sept 1 and they can piggyback w/Prielipp. Let him get 2x through the order. 

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

[MeleMouth]

If the team had one goal, rebuilding, 2026 would have been a year to get Prielipp adjusted to innings and work on skills needed to succeed in major league baseball. But because the team had two goals, competing while rebuilding, Prielipp has been put into situations where the top goal isn't development, giving him contradictory goals. It would be great to shut him down now or just give him limited innings for the rest of the year, to work on specific skills with focus on 2027. 

[Hubie29]

7 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

Problem is Shelton has no clue what a short leash is. He's proved it over and over. 

[DJL44]

Joe Ryan is the only pitcher who might bump him out of the rotation.

If the Twins make it to October, then every single pitcher in the rotation will have had an outstanding September. They won’t make it any other way. They can’t win games at a .630 clip without outstanding starting pitching.

[Patzky]

Are the St Paul innings less a stress in his arm than the Minnesota innings? Or if they plan to use him in short appearances, we could do that as well. The batters are better here, but he's not likely to ease up as a Saint is he?

[Fatbat]

CP is a major leaguer but he has to be feeling the amount of innings by now.  It may be wise to put him on a glide path in September so he comes back even stronger in’27.  He has a bright future as long as his innings are manageable well!! 

[HarmonK03]

18 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Problem is Shelton has no clue what a short leash is. He's proved it over and over. 

Until the last couple of weeks, Shelton has actually done a fairly good job with the bullpen especially considering what he had to work with.  Planning for innings never works, you have to adapt to the game as it goes.

[Wedman13]

33 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

If the team had one goal, rebuilding, 2026 would have been a year to get Prielipp adjusted to innings and work on skills needed to succeed in major league baseball. But because the team had two goals, competing while rebuilding, Prielipp has been put into situations where the top goal isn't development, giving him contradictory goals. It would be great to shut him down now or just give him limited innings for the rest of the year, to work on specific skills with focus on 2027. 

This is not on the organization.  There are 25 teams competing and rebuilding every year.  You get the ball, you pitch the ball.  If and when hitters started laying of his tremendous slider, he's got nothing that fools anyone.  Not being critical, neither do I.  If he wants to succeed he's gonna need a knockout change up

[IndianaTwin]

9 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Piggybacking doesn't work, either let him start and give him a short leash if necessary or move him to the bullpen.

I’m not arguing for piggybacking Prielipp, but the math does in change in September. The argument against piggybacking in the regular season is that it leaves a team with a seven-man bullpen. In September, with the extra pitcher, it still leaves an eight-man pen. In addition, the Twins have three off days left in the remaining 30 days, with only one streak of playing more than six consecutive days. 

In reality, his next start comes on Tuesday, the day the roster expands. Given that Ryan is being targeted for a rehab start “early next week,” I’d just give Prielipp his “normal” start on Tuesday, but with a shorter leash, and then either send him down or move him to the pen if Ryan returns the next time that spot comes around. If Ryan looks like only one rehab is needed, they could actually send Prielipp down after Tuesday and effectively have a 10-man bullpen for a few days until Ryan returns.