The Twins Can't Afford to Wait on Byron Buxton Anymore

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Byron Buxton was one of the biggest reasons for the Twins' success in the first half of the season. He earned his third career All-Star selection and entered the break leading Minnesota with a .904 OPS, 25 home runs and 3.0 fWAR. Since then, however, everything has changed. Buxton has been one of the worst players on the roster while dealing with a lingering hip injury. Now, the Twins have a decision to make about whether continuing to play him is actually helping the team.

Injuries have played a major role in Buxton's season. He began dealing with intermittent right hip soreness in May, which eventually forced him to miss the All-Star Game and spend time on the injured list in July. After a brief return to the lineup on July 20, Buxton reaggravated the hip on July 28 and received an injection. He returned for the Field of Dreams game on August 13 and has been in the lineup ever since, but the results since the break have been anything but encouraging.

In the 16 games Buxton has played since the All-Star break (with a two-week IL stint in the middle of that stretch), he's posted a .411 OPS with just one extra-base hit. He's also produced a team-worst -0.4 fWAR during that time. For a Twins team already struggling to consistently produce offensively, having one of its biggest stars performing at that level is a significant problem. His struggles go back even further than the IL stints. Since June 15, Buxton has a .585 OPS with just seven extra-base hits in 125 plate appearances.

The difficult part is figuring out exactly what's causing the struggles. Buxton has always been a streaky hitter, so it's hardly unprecedented for him to go through an extended cold stretch. He's also been one of the more injury-prone players in baseball, which makes it difficult to determine whether a struggling Buxton is simply in one of his slumps or whether something physical is preventing him from being himself. In this case, it appears to be a combination of the two, but there are enough signs to make it clear that his hip is still bothering him.

First, Buxton has not attempted a stolen base since the break, after attempting eight before the break. For a player whose speed is such an important part of his game, the complete absence of stolen base attempts is notable. He has also grounded into two double plays in his 16 games since the break. To put that in perspective, Buxton did not ground into a double play all last season. Neither statistic proves by itself that Buxton is injured, but when combined with his struggles at the plate, the eye test, and all that we know of his hip injury, it's pretty easy to connect the dots.

If this were simply a slump, the Twins would be wise to wait it out. Buxton has earned that patience; everyone knows what can happen when he gets hot. He's one of those players who can flip a switch and become one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. A hot Buxton can carry an offense for weeks, and the Twins would be foolish to take that possibility away from themselves.

But this isn't a simple slump. If Buxton is playing through an injury, the Twins can't afford to assume that continuing to play him every day will eventually fix the problem. They don't know how long the hip will bother him; they could spend the rest of the season waiting for the healthy version of Buxton to return. As admirable as it is that Buxton continues to play through the injury because he wants to help his team, there comes a point where playing through it starts hurting them.

The Twins' offense is struggling, and right now no player is hurting the team more than their center fielder. That is not a criticism of Buxton's effort or his desire to play. It's the reality of what's happening on the field. The Twins are trying to win games with Buxton in the lineup, but they're not getting the production they need from him, and there's little evidence that his situation is improving.

What makes this decision more palatable is that the Twins have a natural replacement waiting at Triple-A. Walker Jenkins is doing everything possible to knock the door to the majors off its hinges. He's slashing .387/.457/.694 with a 1.151 OPS in 15 games in August in St. Paul. There's very little left for him to prove in Triple-A—although that has been said for the past three weeks. 

If the Twins had no capable replacement for Buxton in center field, continuing to play him would be much easier to defend. Instead, they have one of the best prospects in baseball playing at Triple-A and putting together one of the hottest stretches of his season. Making the swap with Buxton and handing center field to Jenkins full-time down the stretch would give Buxton an opportunity to properly recover, while giving the Twins another dynamic offensive player.

The timing makes the decision even more important. The Twins are currently two games back in the American League Wild Card race, and beginning this weekend, they're scheduled to play 15 consecutive games against division opponents. This is the part of the season where every game matters, and the Twins can't afford to sit around and hope that an injured player eventually gets healthy enough to start producing again. They need to play the players who give them the best chance to win right now.

Usually, that player is Buxton. The first half of this season, that player was Buxton. Unfortunately, Buxton isn't healthy right now, and the Twins aren't getting that version of him.

The Twins don't need to give up on Buxton. They just need to give him time to get healthy. At the same time, they need to take advantage of the opportunity sitting in Triple-A. Walker Jenkins is ready, Buxton is not himself, and the Twins are running out of time to wait for that to change.

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What do you think the Twins should do with Byron Buxton? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[DJL44]

There’s an idea. Play Walker Jenkins full time and have Larnach and Buxton share a role until one of them starts hitting again. When Buxton enters the game they can move Jenkins to LF.

[ashbury]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There’s an idea. Play Walker Jenkins full time and have Larnach and Buxton share a role until one of them starts hitting again. When Buxton enters the game they can move Jenkins to LF.

What role do Larnach and Buxton share? "Non-injured LHP masher"?  Trevor is currently covering the non-injured part and Byron can certainly handle lefties.

[PuckettPond]

We love Buxton but like any relationship one needs to know when it has run it's course. Is Buxton's value with the Twins or another team. He is not healthy. Before his latest injury he was on pace for 30-35 home runs @ the All Star break. I do not see 30 HRs for the season. One can love the player but fans must love the Twins future success more. It's not personal it's Baseball. Small market fans must choose facts over emotion. All I want for Christmas is a healthy Buxton.

[dberthia]

It really grinds my gears to see Buck in no shape to be on the field, but everybody insists he's such a trooper for working through it in hopes of reviving his game. It's over, at least for this year. Anybody with a pair of eyes can tell he's finished. He's actively hurting the team by being on the field, and having him out there isn't something to be admired- it should be ridiculed.

[Wedman13]

3 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

We love Buxton but like any relationship one needs to know when it has run it's course. Is Buxton's value with the Twins or another team. He is not healthy. Before his latest injury he was on pace for 30-35 home runs @ the All Star break. I do not see 30 HRs for the season. One can love the player but fans must love the Twins future success more. It's not personal it's Baseball. Small market fans must choose facts over emotion. All I want for Christmas is a healthy Buxton.

And there's the boom.  

Of course we emotionally invest ourselves in players.  We're human.  So are they.   Life does move on.  

I have  not watched one single game thread where a player (Fedko aside) gets lauded for bad games.  #25 is super cool and I'm so glad he has been a twin but it's time.  My 7th grade girlfriend was also a hottie 30 years ago.  And I hope she's well.....

 

[DJL44]

Buxton does not seem to have much confidence in his strike zone judgement. He doesn’t challenge close pitches that he could overturn and he’s chasing pitches out of the zone. 

[bean5302]

Buxton getting doubled up made it pretty clear he's not running like himself. No way a ball hit to 3B turns into a double play with Buxton's normal speed.

The exit velocity and hard hit rates are pretty normal for Buck, though.

[HarmonK03]

If Buxton is not on the IL, he is going to be in the lineup.  If they aren't going to take AB's from Larnach for Jenkins they sure won't do it to Buxton.  He is obviously not 100% and the hip injury is not going to be completely healed until the offseason with rest.  He is very clearly managing how he plays so as to not aggravate it further.  If he was hitting better, we would probably have more patience with not taking the extra base or the double play balls.  

They need to decide can he play with the hip injury as it is, but Buxton has to buy in.  As frustrated as we are with his injuries he is still the face of the franchise and they are not going to force something on him that he is not in agreement with, whether we agree with that or not.

He is going to be here for two more years unless something drastic changes.  I am going to enjoy the time he is on the field and hope he can play more games.  But this is one reason you really need Jenkins up here because then you have a viable plan if Buxton gets injured again next year.

 

[Hunter4848]

The Twins are attempting to make the playoffs and Buxton is nowhere to be found. How utterly shocking...

[Dawgzilla]

Nice guy...overrated somewhat!  No way in heck this guy shouldn't drive in 90+ runs, score 80+, steal 30 bases and be on the field 9 out of 10 games (dh included).  Period!  Like Bud Grant said:  "The best ability is availability"!

 

Trade him this off-season; waayyy injury liability.

Does your boss let you call in sick, feel tired not to show up at all, etc, 1-2 work week days every three weeks and be o.k. with that?!  Didn't think so!

[C-Gangster]

He was an MVP candidate last season. We can't keep doing this he is a twin for probably the rest of his career. He is one of the best center fielders in the game. It annoys me how people think we should get rid of him. He's the best were gonna have for quite some time.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, Dawgzilla said:

Nice guy...overrated somewhat!  No way in heck this guy shouldn't drive in 90+ runs, score 80+, steal 30 bases and be on the field 9 out of 10 games (dh included).  Period!  Like Bud Grant said:  "The best ability is availability"!

 

Trade him this off-season; waayyy injury liability.

You can't trade him unless he approves and he has said he won't.

[Dawgzilla]

I know, but he would if it is amicable in the end to all parties, meaning Twins, new team and his wife/kids.

[LastOnePicked]

2 minutes ago, C-Gangster said:

We can't keep doing this he is a twin for probably the rest of his career.

I agree with this. He will be a Twin for life. And that's what he wants, and that fine. It hasn't been a terrible contract.

But the idea of building a contending team around Buxton is beyond ludicrous. He's just not going to be available at crunch time. He never has been and he never will be. It's how it works. It's a sad footnote to an otherwise promising career.

[jkcarew]

During his career, he’s been fully capable of going into horrendous slumps even when healthy. To me, it’s simple…if you really think he’s healthy, keep plugging him into the lineup and hope the breakout comes soon enough to matter. He’s your star, it’s reasonable to think that the breakout is imminent in that scenario. But otherwise…if he’s hurt, inhibited in how he runs and swings…shut him down. It’s not working.

[jkcarew]

42 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

then you have a viable plan if Buxton gets injured again next year

If? Taking the fandom out of it…if a player can’t be counted on, he should NOT be counted on. Doesn’t matter who, doesn’t matter why.

[HarmonK03]

13 minutes ago, Dawgzilla said:

I know, but he would if it is amicable in the end to all parties, meaning Twins, new team and his wife/kids.

He has already said he wants to be here, so my guess is all those factors were considered.  This is just beating a dead horse until there is new reporting saying something different.

[Patzky]

52 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

The Twins are attempting to make the playoffs and Buxton is nowhere to be found. How utterly shocking...

Which one is shocking..