Four Trade Packages That Actually Make Sense for Joe Ryan

[MGX]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They'd have to be great prospects, not good ones, for this to work. 

Joseph Dzierwa & Luis De Leon would work for me.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I think I needed another comma....Tait or an OF not named Jenkins.

But in looking, that's an overpay for Minnesota. Jeffers, Tait, and an ok prospect is likely enough? 

I think this is probably right. Jeffers, an Emma or Tait type, and somebody more random should be awfully tempting to the M's. We'll obviously never really know, but I'd be so incredibly frustrated with the Twins if they never called Dipoto and said "I have Jeffers, you have Hancock, how do we make this work?" and at least give it a real run at him.

[D.C Twins]

If we trade Ryan, the package needs to include young talented pitching within 1 year of MLB (2 max).... so out of these I would vote for Seattle

 

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

young talented pitching within 1 year of MLB (2 max)

I think, if that's your goal (and probably the goal of 29 other major league GMs), you need to turn the question around.  What trade chips would a team having that pitcher want in return?  Then construct other trades to acquire those pieces and make your offer.

Instead of swinging for the fences each time, play Piranha Ball.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’m surprised Milwaukee wasn’t listed as an option. Certainly they can put a better package together than San Diego.

[D.C Twins]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I think, if that's your goal (and probably the goal of 29 other major league GMs), you need to turn the question around.  What trade chips would a team having that pitcher want in return?  Then construct other trades to acquire those pieces and make your offer.

Instead of swinging for the fences each time, play Piranha Ball.

Such a team would want to have a finished product that could improve their chances for deep playoff run this year and next. They would need to give up pitchers that would debut in the MLB 2027/2028 but not be a more finished product likely until the year after that at least. Ryan during his first season was obviously not Ryan now.... Basic I'm in now versus I'm in a little later exchange... 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Such a team would want to have a finished product that could improve their chances for deep playoff run this year and next. They would need to give up pitchers that would debut in the MLB 2027/2028 but not be a more finished product likely until the year after that at least. Ryan during his first season was obviously not Ryan now.... Basic I'm in now versus I'm in a little later exchange... 

If Ryan matches up with the guy you want, then sure, work out the details and pull the trigger. 

But another team might have the right pitcher and be starving for good hitting, and then Ryan might not be the key himself, yet could fetch what is needed.  Three-team trades are hard to pull off, but if a GM has patience the end result can still happen over time.

Unless the major league squad pretty much runs the table these coming several games, we have until February to really get all our ducks in a row.  Meanwhile trading Ryan now gives the receiving team two bites at the apple (this year's post-season, plus whatever 2027 brings), instead of just one by waiting until after the World Series.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What do you see as the Twins competitive window? And who are the guys driving it?

Right now I see the competitive window as 28-32.  
 

Who’s driving - That’s a great question. My best guess is the Pohlads sell shortly after the CBA. They will be selling hope in prospects with a massive budget available to fill in the roster. So most likely new owners, GM and 50/50 on a new coach.  
 

As to players we have a bit more of a picture. Buxton will begin to fade. The stars we hope is from the group of Jenkins, Culpepper, Lackey and Houston and Rodriguez. Get a legit center fielder and you have the most difficult positions to cover.  We have some other hitters that don’t have a great defensive spot with Mendez and Gonzalez.  
 

Pitching wise, for the short term Bradley looks like a legit top of the rotation arm.  We have some good young arms adjusting to MLB, Abel and Festa is injured.  Maybe we are able to sign Pablo to another extension.  We have some high ceiling arms in the minors but haven’t seen a lot of flashes, 

it’s a start- trade deadline and next years draft may add a few more pieces. We will obviously have injuries and underperformance but this looks very similar to the 2001 reset.  They need to finish it though. 

[jorgenswest]

If the return is two mid to back half of the top 100 you will be getting a similar return to Berrios. A player with a future value of lower tier starting position player and a pitcher with a future value of back end starter bullpen piece. These players will have a 50% likelihood of a longer term career in the majors.

In order to do better they either need to hold out for an upper tier prospect or be smarter than most teams and identify an upper tier prospect that is viewed in the back half of the 100. The trading context has changed since the last decade. It is rarer to get those upper tier prospects like DeVries. Teams like the Twins can choose to hold onto their players or be willing to take a few  players with a future value of a below average starter or position player as they did in the Berrios deal.

I think all of the four deals are better than the return for Berrios. I appreciate@Cody Christie for setting the bar. The Twins should be holding out for these kinds of deals. If they don’t get that offer they should hold onto Ryan.

[Andy MacPhail]

I wouldn't trade Joe Ryan unless they can get at least a MLB-ready SP who they can make into a Bradley & a good promising MLB-ready catcher who can be our 3rd catcher, has options & can hold the torch until Lackey is ready to take over the primary duties. I wouldn't want any prospects especially those who don't fill a need, I don't care how high they rank. So. I'd say no to all these.

[strumdatjag]

Kade Anderson is currently ranked #5 in MLB’s Top 100.   But Seattle has another pitcher ranked #8, a right-handed named Ryan Sloan.  
His numbers are not as flashy as the lefty Kade Anderson.  It’s not as desirable, but it’s another option to consider.  AND we wouldn’t be losing a Ryan, just trading one for another.  
Then again, a trade of RYAN Jeffers is going to reduce the number of RYANs already. 

[Otaknam]

I like the Seattle trade for Cade Anderson and Arroyo. Anderson has top of the rotation stuff, so I doubt Seattle would be interested unless they think that Ryan can help them make another strong playoff run. 

[clone52]

5 hours ago, Rigby said:

De Paula and Zazueta are favorites of mine from the Dodgers system. Might build out a package of Ryan and Jeffers for Sirota, Zazueta and Morales. River's turning 28 in August and his health has always given me pause.

Ryan should get you Sirota, Zazueta and another pitcher

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, clone52 said:

Ryan should get you Sirota, Zazueta and another pitcher

No chance you get two top fifty prospects for Ryan. Let alone a third guy. 

If you can, make that trade all day. 

[Nshore]

Trading the Twins elite pitcher for prospect, prospect, suspect, prospect, Bueller, and "knocking on the door of the upper minors".  Let's do this!  I'm totally psyched!

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins are willing to get wild and wheel and deal this deadline, it could be very interesting. I don't find it likely, but I don't think it's outrageous. I still think going and getting Hancock with a package built around Jeffers is incredibly interesting. Put Emma with him if that's what Seattle wants. To me, that then opens up a trade of Ryan elsewhere with Hancock taking his spot in the rotation (I mean literally pitching on the days Ryan would have, not as any statement on skill level). Whether it's my Atlanta idea or something else. If I can get 2 top 100 prospects and Emerson Hancock for Ryan, Jeffers, and a prospect, I'm thrilled.

I like this one a lot.  Maybe Larnach instead of a prospect.  

[BsuNemo]

It wouldn't make sense to trade a controllable top of the line starter for anything less than top pitching prospects. That being said, Joe Ryan will still be very valuable at next years trade deadline. Unless we're blown away why not run with Ryan, Pablo, Taj, Mick and fill in the blank (ober, Connor etc) until next July? That looks like a division winning rotation and we've got a lineup that can score runs. Build the bullpen this winter (along with the few that look strong right now, Zebby and Festa)... that could be a very very good team! 

Trade Bell and Wallner if there's interest. Trade Jeffers for the right offer. Hold the rest. Keep developing in 2026. Win in 2027. I think this is a very plausible possibility. 

[Otaknam]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Whomever wrote this seems woefully unqualified to have their opinions quoted on this site. The chances a team advances in the playoffs is heavily influenced by their top 3 rotation arms. I've done this analysis before. I think only the 2015 Royals have won a World Series in the past 15-20 years without 3 bona fide playoff caliber starters in the rotation.

Every team that makes the playoffs can score runs. There are no bad lineups. The Padres were the worst team in the playoffs last year in terms of run production, and they ranked 18th in MLB, being the ONLY team not in the top 1/2 of run scorers. 8 of the top 10 scoring teams made the playoffs.

That means, like almost always, it's about pitching. Pitching wins playoffs. Your top 3 starters determine your fate. It's why the Twins kept making the playoffs year after year after year and getting swept right back out. For a professional sports record setting drought. The Twins did not have an ace. They did not have a #2. They had a collection of #3s, and the Twins often had better back end rotation options than other teams. Great for making the playoffs. Not great when you never face an opposing team's back end rotation arms because of short rest starts, series breaks providing extra rest, and meticulous lineup planning. When an ace matches up against a #3 in the playoffs, it is a massive disadvantage for the team putting a #3 on the mound. Massive.

 

I agree. The Twins had a stable of number three and four starters in recent years, which may get you to the playoffs but won’t get it done in the playoffs. You need a bulldog number one or a couple of number twos, like a Clemons or Verlander. The Twins have not had a true number one since Santana and Liriano IMO. Of course, the definition of a number one has changed now that teams are closely regulating innings pitched. Some consider Joe Ryan as top of the rotation. He is pretty good but not the traditional stopper.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Coming back to Milwaukee; if Milwaukee offers Logan Henderson as a starting point, I am definitely interested in working with them.

[Otaknam]

4 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

It wouldn't make sense to trade a controllable top of the line starter for anything less than top pitching prospects. That being said, Joe Ryan will still be very valuable at next years trade deadline. Unless we're blown away why not run with Ryan, Pablo, Taj, Mick and fill in the blank (ober, Connor etc) until next July? That looks like a division winning rotation and we've got a lineup that can score runs. Build the bullpen this winter (along with the few that look strong right now, Zebby and Festa)... that could be a very very good team! 

Trade Bell and Wallner if there's interest. Trade Jeffers for the right offer. Hold the rest. Keep developing in 2026. Win in 2027. I think this is a very plausible possibility. 

I think the Twins will trade Jeffers, Bell and Larnach if they can get a fair upside return. But if they keep Ryan I agree that their 2027 rotation looks very solid and has a a chance to be excellent. 

[weitz41]

Seattle, they're willing to move SP for bats. So do dice.

Pardes. They're prospects don't fit the Twins needs today and likely next season. I'd take a not under water contract to make that happen. Tatis plus an arm or two. But not going to happen

The Yankees are likely putting Warren in the BP because of too many starters. No chance.

I think it's unlikely, but the Dodgers are my target. They really don't need to do anything. Just wait for guys to get healthy. So, I'll take a shot at Joe Ryan for Sirota, River Ryan and Jackson Ferris. We need one of the two pitchers to take on Ryans innings. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Seattle, they're willing to move SP for bats. So do dice.

Pardes. They're prospects don't fit the Twins needs today and likely next season. I'd take a not under water contract to make that happen. Tatis plus an arm or two. But not going to happen

The Yankees are likely putting Warren in the BP because of too many starters. No chance.

I think it's unlikely, but the Dodgers are my target. They really don't need to do anything. Just wait for guys to get healthy. So, I'll take a shot at Joe Ryan for Sirota, River Ryan and Jackson Ferris. We need one of the two pitchers to take on Ryans innings. 

This is a realistic deal I would consider. Not necessarily Love.... Because I really want a better pitcher back. 

[weitz41]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This is a realistic deal I would consider. Not necessarily Love.... Because I really want a better pitcher back. 

Look at it as a bridge to 2028 and HOPEfully Quick, Hall and Soto being ready to join the SP staff.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Who says no?

White Sox get: Joe Ryan 

Twins get: Roch Cholowsky 

 

[mike8791]

An interesting thread, but you can throw it all away.  Ryan scratched tonight for "arm soreness".  His value just dropped.  Not going to maximize his value now.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, BsuNemo said:

It wouldn't make sense to trade a controllable top of the line starter for anything less than top pitching prospects. That being said, Joe Ryan will still be very valuable at next years trade deadline. Unless we're blown away why not run with Ryan, Pablo, Taj, Mick and fill in the blank (ober, Connor etc) until next July? That looks like a division winning rotation and we've got a lineup that can score runs. Build the bullpen this winter (along with the few that look strong right now, Zebby and Festa)... that could be a very very good team! 

Trade Bell and Wallner if there's interest. Trade Jeffers for the right offer. Hold the rest. Keep developing in 2026. Win in 2027. I think this is a very plausible possibility. 

I think this is the only rational and realistic expectation if the twins stay where they are at or even a bit better. If they get worse then everyone is fair game. If they get better then I think they trim the outfield fat to clear a path for Jenkins and Culpepper and to get a BP arm or two. The Yankees don’t have the prospects. Same with San Diego. Does Seattle need another top of the line SP? Probably not for what it takes to get Ryan. LA hasn’t been prone recently to swing big deals and part with top prospects but maybe that changes. Also, they are heavy in OF’s when the Twins need to get rid of OF’s. They don’t have any SP prospects close or of the caliber needed to swing the deal for Ryan. Legitimate teams that need SP and would want Ryan probably don’t have the prospects. I say keep him and re evaluate this winter.

[LA Vikes Fan]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What do you see as the Twins competitive window? And who are the guys driving it?

I think that an excellent question and may be the ultimate question that drives the decision. I actually think they have a decent core, what I would call about 2/3 of a competitive team, with the ability to actually be competitive next season for the division title and Mohr in 2028. We haveThree or four starting pitchers, four guys in the bullpen, solid catching, a solid outfield, and two starting infielders. I think the real mismatch is you’ve got three or four guys who are in the prime or later prime parts of their careers (Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers/Caratini, Larnach,  Lopez next year), mixed with some guys who are just starting their prime in Lee, Keaschall , Morris, Gomez, Matthews, with Prielipp and Rojas, plus Abel, not far behind. Luis is a complete wild card with a wide range of outcomes and Martin could be a solid fourth outfielder. That’s a start of a good core, but not enough where the addition of a few rentals does a whole lot. That’s why my thinking at the trade deadline is trade Jeffers for the best package you can get, and try to make controllable MLB talent like Emerson Hancock part of the return. I would also consider trading Bell and Larnach if you can get a prospect a year or two out who could be an average or above average MLB player. I just don’t think you can. I think you want to keep this team with enough talent so they can sort of compete this year as they learn so I keep Ryan and trade him in the off-season for MLB talent, not now for prospects. I would then aggressively promote Jenkins and both Culpeppers to see what else we got. I think the competitive window can be open for a division title in 2027 and be wide open in 2028, but not if you trade away all of the veterans now. If you keep them and we tank this year and start off slowly next year, then I think you go into the trade them all and rebuild scenario, but not yet.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

Who says no?

White Sox get: Joe Ryan 

Twins get: Roch Cholowsky 

 

Can't be done....but Twins. 

[Historyking88]

Once again you couldn’t be more wrong with your analysis and research for several reasons. First off the Twins don’t need any more position players as the top of their prospect system is filled with that. They need more pitching over anything so any deal involving Ryan should only be for pitching. Secondly the only team of these that fits this bill is the Yankees. Seattle doesn’t need anymore pitching and the other 2 teams don’t have the necessary pitching talent.

However your deal with the Yankees is flawed too. Again the Twins should only be targeting pitching prospects so they should ask for a package that includes Will Warren, Carlos Lagrange, and Henry Lalane. You get an instant starter for your rotation, a prospect that could instantly start in your bullpen, and a third piece with the upside to develop into a mid-rotation starter or top end reliever. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

Who says no?

White Sox get: Joe Ryan 

Twins get: Roch Cholowsky 

Now?  Rob Manfred says no.

After the World Series.  I'm guessing the White Sox say no, since now Ryan is down to one year of control.

/ edit - ninja'd due to not scrolling all the way down first.