Twins 3, Guardians 1: Patience Pays Off

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, amjgt said:

What happens to the negative WPA generated by putting the Manfred Man on 2nd base?

The elegance of WPA is that at the end of the game, everyone’s WPA adds up to 1.00, but that’s not the case for extra innings games. 

Search did not return a quick reply! I thought we discussed this earlier this year, but I can't find it. (us, meaning this site, not you and me).

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

What’s Larnach have to do to get some respect?……..maybe he’ll leap a tall building in a single bound ….., Sands (maybe) & Prielipp are going to be back during this home stand, who gets demoted?

Sands is supposed to pitch tonight and it’ll be his first time on one day rest since he went on the IL. 

[USAFChief]

14 hours ago, amjgt said:

What happens to the negative WPA generated by putting the Manfred Man on 2nd base?

The elegance of WPA is that at the end of the game, everyone’s WPA adds up to 1.00, but that’s not the case for extra innings games. 

I guess i have trouble with the idea that 2 relievers, each pitching 1 inning-scoreless, I grant you-each provided more win probability than a starter who went 7 and gave up only 1 run.

Junk stat, IYAM.

Edited Friday at 01:54 PM by USAFChief

[DocBauer]

On the one hand, I'm still very disappointed to lose the Cubs series after winning game 1, plus then losing the first 2 games of the Guardians series to make it 4 L's in a row

On the other hand, the Cubs aren't a bad team and playing IN Cleveland has been a House Of Horrors for several years now. So hanging in there and winning the last 2 is a nice accomplishment. 

Believe I heard the Twins are under .500 against NL teams but above .500 against AL teams? Hmmmm...

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I guess i have trouble with the idea thay 2 relievers, each pitching 1 inning-scoreless, I grant you-each provided more win probability than a starter who went 7 and give up only 1 run.

Junk stat, IYAM.

Then you should love war..... Because it values the start more 😁

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

They have 3 each with what might be the worst two teams in AL, at home……..Bobby Witt Jr. to the 60 day IL……then at Seattle.

6-3 and they are buying.

I’m all for trading Caratini, switch hitting Catcher with another year of control. Trade Bell & Wallner to somebody needing a DH. Hopefully, this yields one usable arm. Larnach to platoon DH…… put a package together to Giants for Luis Arraez. Our two former 2nd baseman are then playing corner OF.

That a shame about Witt, Jr. Easily my favorite non-Twins player. I thought it was the 10-day IL, and someone else went on the 60-day to accommodate the moves. But, maybe KC should shut down for longer with the lost season.

[h2oface]

Larnach sure is having a Season. And contrary to multiple declarations from so many of us all throughout this year and even before it even started, the season is still not over. There is hope in Twins Territory tonight!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I just like looking at the box score and seeing the twins pitched four relievers today with ERA 3 or lower. It’s amazing what can be done when we have some competent arms in the bullpen.  Still some work to do but this game alone shows they are beginning to pull their weight.  

[Saxophone Joe]

I watched this game on replay already knowing the outcome (but just the final score) and kept wondering, How do we end up winning this game?

Wow! 

[DocBauer]

Just a small side note: Trading Caratini just isn't happening unless the Twins eat $. Part of his deal is a $3M buyout post 2027. So he's really owed $10M on his contract. 

Nobody is going to touch that for an over 30yo catcher unless the Twins buy the deal down.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I just like looking at the box score and seeing the twins pitched four relievers today with ERA 3 or lower. It’s amazing what can be done when we have some competent arms in the bullpen.  Still some work to do but this game alone shows they are beginning to pull their weight.  

Where would we be without Gomez? What a find! He's probably still best as a set up man, but he's been as big of a find as I can remember. 

I've always believed Morris had the ability to be a solid back end SP, or a great RP. I was pleasantly surprised they converted him so quickly considering the injuries to Lopez and Festa. 

I don't mind the Nance deal, but he SHOULD be the 5th or 6th man in a better bullpen. But he's looked good so far.

Rogers is pitching on guts and guile. But except for a couple really bad games, he's been solid. I think his ERA is misleading. But I think this is probably his last year.

Anderson really came through today. But in a quality pen, he's the #7 man at best. I'm not complaining about his early results or what he did today, but he's pretty dispensible overall.

Regardless of whether the Twins sell a little, or buy a little, or do both, my HOPE is Sands comes back soon, fully healthy, and reminds us of how good he was in 2024, and parts of 2025. Further, I really want to see Raya get on track and get back up and prepare for 2027. In his few appearnces, he looked like he has potential. 

Even further, I'm a believer that CJ Culpepper could be a really solid part of the pen going forward. I'm really hoping he gets his feet wet this season.

And if you want to get really crazy, I am SO INTRIGUED about just telling Rojas to trust his stuff, and just concentrate on ONE inning, and just be as NASTY as he can be. 

But the pen DID do a hell of a job today. And it's a better pen than we had in April. We'd probably be a couple games above .500 if we had this pen then. While there's still work to do, the pen is better than it was.

 

[Linus]

Taj is a stud and he still has another level to unlock with a little greater command 

[knothole61]

6 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Twins are 2-5 vs the "struggling" Royals this year. 0-0 vs A's.... who knows what will happen....that's why they play the games.  I hope for the best, not surprised by the worst....its baseball and it's the Twins. 

Bobby Witt is on the 10-day IL and he's the spark plug of their offense.

[knothole61]

Man, baseball can be fun! I love a good pitchers' duel and this was one for the ages. Multiple pitchers kept a 1-1 tie going, (despite the ghost runners in the 10th and 11th) until the Twins added two in the 12th. Minnesota's pitchers gave up three hits all game--three hits, over 12 full innings, in a hostile ball park, against a solid team.

This truly was a sweet win and I think the Twins are now primed for a very good home stand at a critical juncture in the season.   

[UK Twin]

The best inning pitched by Rogers by a mile this season. Intentionally walking Ramirez was an obvious move but you couldn't then let DeLauter reach and load the bases with no outs. 3-2 count and he threw a perfectly located pitch that clipped the corner of the strike zone. Turned out to be a massive moment. 

Bradley excellent again, keeping the Twins in the game against a dealing Williams. Great to steal a win from a division rival - Guardians will be very cross they didn't win that. A 3-4 record from that 7 game road trip is fine - would have taken that before it started last week. Now we need to back it up with a strong homestand against the A's and Royals minus Witt.

[UK Twin]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

Larnach sure is having a Season. And contrary to multiple declarations from so many of us all throughout this year and even before it even started, the season is still not over. There is hope in Twins Territory tonight!

This might be unpopular but I would trade Larnach now while his stock is high. Gives Roden more game time and we have Jenkins waiting at AAA.

[JDubs]

Gotta hand it to the bullpen. After the offense failed to score in the 10th I figured it was over. When they failed to score in the 11th, I was absolutely sure it was over. Hell, even when they had a two run lead and I saw a guy I'd never heard of warming up I still wasn't very certain they'd pull it out. Funny for how bad it's been, this bullpen can also just randomly be completely nails.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Where would we be without Gomez? What a find! He's probably still best as a set up man, but he's been as big of a find as I can remember. 

I've always believed Morris had the ability to be a solid back end SP, or a great RP. I was pleasantly surprised they converted him so quickly considering the injuries to Lopez and Festa. 

I don't mind the Nance deal, but he SHOULD be the 5th or 6th man in a better bullpen. But he's looked good so far.

Rogers is pitching on guts and guile. But except for a couple really bad games, he's been solid. I think his ERA is misleading. But I think this is probably his last year.

Anderson really came through today. But in a quality pen, he's the #7 man at best. I'm not complaining about his early results or what he did today, but he's pretty dispensible overall.

Regardless of whether the Twins sell a little, or buy a little, or do both, my HOPE is Sands comes back soon, fully healthy, and reminds us of how good he was in 2024, and parts of 2025. Further, I really want to see Raya get on track and get back up and prepare for 2027. In his few appearnces, he looked like he has potential. 

Even further, I'm a believer that CJ Culpepper could be a really solid part of the pen going forward. I'm really hoping he gets his feet wet this season.

And if you want to get really crazy, I am SO INTRIGUED about just telling Rojas to trust his stuff, and just concentrate on ONE inning, and just be as NASTY as he can be. 

But the pen DID do a hell of a job today. And it's a better pen than we had in April. We'd probably be a couple games above .500 if we had this pen then. While there's still work to do, the pen is better than it was.

 

I completely agree. Everyone in the pen is a spot or 2 higher than they should be. Right now Anderson is a borderline pen arm or #4/5 pitcher.  Personally if he stays with the Twins I think Starting Pitcher is where he will land and they may even move him there before the end of the season. In either case he had a moment today and good for him.  
 

We have been operating with arm at the bottom of the pen who shouldn’t be in the MLB for the last year. So to actually have a borderline bottom of the pen arm is a massive upgrade to what we have been working with.  
 

Getting Sands back and in a position where he doesn’t feel he has to carry the load should really help him and the pen. You are 1 high leverage arm away from having a legit bullpen. Say what you will, miraculous, smoke and mirrors, or this is proof the fire sale of the bullpen was smart- this has worked out in this instance. Give Latroy Hawkins some major kudos as well.  He is getting his boys ready, confident and helping get them into spots where they can be successful.  

[stringer bell]

12 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Twins are 2-5 vs the "struggling" Royals this year. 0-0 vs A's.... who knows what will happen....that's why they play the games.  I hope for the best, not surprised by the worst....its baseball and it's the Twins. 

The game tonight will be big because of the bullpen use in the last couple of days. Zebby needs to go deep and the Twins need to score some runs. It sounds like Prielipp will get the start tomorrow and that Sands will be returning before the homestand is over. 

[William K Johnson]

Where would be if we had this bullpen coming out of spring training?   BTW, don't overlook the great managing job by Shelton in the game.   Moving personnel defensively to maximize offensive platooning was very good.   Something Baldelli would never do.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Step 2 of the 15-game winning streak: ✅ 

[jmlease1]

Pretty big win. There's a big difference between losing a series 3-1 and taking the 2-2 draw, especially on the road. Not a great road trip, but it could have been a disaster and they dodged that. Need some good results this weekend, but they're not out of it.

Bradley has been excellent this season, IMHO. Bit of a wobbler against the Cubs, but bounced back with another strong start. Not his best command, but battled through it rather than getting lit up early, which you have to like. He's got the stuff to work around the walks. 5 of his last 6 starts he's put up a Game Score of 60+ and that gives your team a fine chance to come away with the win. He's gotten into the 7th in 40% of his starts this season too; Twins really needed that length yesterday and he provided.

[DJL44]

Ryan Kreidler’s offense keeps plummeting. 420 OPS over his last 63 plate appearances. 2 hits, no walks and seven strikeouts over his last 21. A bounce back to his career OPS of 515 would be an encouraging improvement.

[DJL44]

We might also be at the beginning of a Josh Bell cold streak. 

[Sjoski]

A lot of hope in this thread....not saying its not possible....but the stats simple say...it's not probable, that the Minnesota Twins makes the playoffs.  RA: 528 ! ! ! 

Even if Texas falls off the board, Twins still have to overtake Cleveland or Boston. Highly unlikely. 

 

[jorgenswest]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just a small side note: Trading Caratini just isn't happening unless the Twins eat $. Part of his deal is a $3M buyout post 2027. So he's really owed $10M on his contract. 

Nobody is going to touch that for an over 30yo catcher unless the Twins buy the deal down.

It would take a large market team that freely spends and does not see 10 million as a big commitment. It will certainly limit the return. The Twins might get a better return from a mid or small market team if they pick up that buyout. A large market team I think would pay off the contract over improving the prospects and in the deal.

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Where would be if we had this bullpen coming out of spring training?  

I keep thinking of the phrase "opportunity cost" and this is a fine example.  Yes, you can rebuild a bullpen.  But this one has taken 4 months during which wins-and-losses continue to count.  That's the hidden cost of being a bottom-feeder team, sifting through other teams' discards.  Now here we are, just below .500 and needing to be several games above .500 by season's end if we hope for a post-season.  Tick tock, my friends.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

A lot of hope in this thread....not saying its not possible....but the stats simple say...it's not probable, that the Minnesota Twins makes the playoffs.  RA: 528 ! ! ! 

Even if Texas falls off the board, Twins still have to overtake Cleveland or Boston. Highly unlikely. 

 

I don't think it impossible to overtake either of the AL Central teams. Cleveland is only two ahead of them. The Twins have the tie breaker and a three-game homes series remaining against them. I also think the White Sox are suspect, due to youth, a really poor road record and not having experienced a pennant race. The Twins will need to win 83-85 games and make sure to take care of divisional business. I still am skeptical, but I don't think it is out of the realm for the Twins to make postseason this year.

[Sjoski]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Cleveland is only two ahead of them.

True...but there are also 3 teams less than a game behind them.  Balt, Houston,  Detroit,  and don't count Toronto out yet either. If just one of these teams get hot, the odds slip for Minnesota.