How the Twins Can Maximize Their Playoff Chances in the Second Half Before Adding Anything

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Twins officially optioned Royce Lewis to Triple-A St. Paul on May 18. That very day, they lost Ryan Jeffers to a broken hamate bone. At that point, they were already a sub-.500 team, and the trend arrows were all pointing in the wrong direction. Many assumed, reasonably, that the team was about to collapse. It nearly did, too. After hanging tough for about a week, Minnesota lost 10 of 13 and fell all the way to 30-38, fading even in an extremely forgiving AL Wild Card race. They were on the brink.

Since then, however, they've turned things around admirably. Lewis returned from the minors on June 1, and is hitting .269/.328/.500 since. Jeffers just returned for the final series before the All-Star break, and even while he was gone, hard-working fallback plan Alex Jackson kept the team afloat. They're 18-11 since hitting their nadir in mid-June. They're right back in the thick of the race, with guys they'd hoped to count on but been forced to live without (Lewis, Jeffers, Bailey Ober) back in the mix, to boot. That invites a new question: How can they keep this going?

The pace at which the team has played for the last month is impressive, but they have to sustain it for a while to climb into a safe position in the jostle for playoff berths. That should be easier, in theory, because they're a stronger roster coming out of the break than they were until just before it—and certainly than they were in May and the first part of June. They've reorganized the team defensively, fixed Lewis's bat, and reinstated Jeffers and Ober from the injured list. Alas, regression will tug on their capes as they endeavor to take flight. To be as good a team as they've been of late, they have to improve their roster—or at least the deployment of their current one—to stave off the pull toward average (or worse) that will afflict several members of the team.

Here are three ways the Twins can proactively swat at the gnats of regression during this summer heat wave, to keep enjoying that heat without being bitten or pestered into irrelevance.

Make Royce Lewis a Platoon Bat
The very first suggestion—first because I feel it has the greatest potential to help the team sustain its overachievement—comes with some friction. Lewis is an ebullient teammate, but he's not without ego, and this would come as a blow to that. It could sour some of the clubhouse sweetness that has given the team such positive energy the last several weeks. However, with Jeffers returning to the roster, it has to be a real consideration.

The coincidence of Lewis being optioned and Jeffers being hurt means that we've yet to see how the lineup best works when they have the revived Lewis (but no longer as a third baseman, with Brooks Lee having taken up that post) and Jeffers each available. With Jeffers back in the fold, Victor Caratini is free to contribute at first base again—especially since the club is carrying three catchers at the moment.

When a right-handed hurler starts for the opponents, the best version of this lineup doesn't contain Lewis. Even since he returned to the majors, much of his value has come from crushing left-handed pitching. Here are the key stat lines for Twins hitters against righty pitchers since June 1:

• Lewis: .258/.311/.464, 7.5% walk rate, 26.4% strikeout rate, .308 BABIP
• Caratini: .313/.420/.567, 13.6%, 12.3%, .315
• Josh Bell: .293/.346/.596, 7.5%, 19.6%, .319
• Kody Clemens: .288/.321/.644, 5.4%, 17.9%, .263

Jeffers will remain the regular catcher, unless the team trades him before the August 3 trade deadline—which is unlikely, according to multiple league sources. That makes sense, but it means that Caratini is likely to find some playing time elsewhere, and that has knock-on effects. Lewis can't make a strong case to play over Bell (with Caratini as the DH), Clemens (at second) or Caratini. Yes, some of the players listed here have been hitting better than they're likely to hit the rest of the way against righties, but then again, how confident are you that Lewis won't regress a bit, himself?

Against righties, the everyday lineup should look like this:

1. Trevor Larnach - LF
2. Byron Buxton - CF
3. Kody Clemens - 2B
4. Ryan Jeffers - C
5. Josh Bell - DH
6. Victor Caratini - 1B
7. Brooks Lee - 3B
8. Ryan Kreidler - SS
9. Luke Keaschall - RF

If Buxton doesn't return from the injured list immediately, the team could resume the project it rapidly abandoned last month and try Lewis out at second for a while, with Clemens sliding back out to center field. Even in that case, though, playing Lewis wouldn't be the optimal deployment of their talent. Alan Roden is batting .269/.402/.471 against righties between Triple-A St. Paul and the majors this year. The sample is small, but the promise is real, and an alignment in which Roden plays center and Clemens is at second is stronger defensively than one with Lewis at second, anyway.

This whole conversation highlights the fact that Lewis's hot streak since rejoining the team might only play him out of town. We don't have to tackle that notion in full right now. Suffice it to say that if Lewis is around, he should be in a roving, lefty-mashing role at least while the team is at this level of health and availability. He's their best option against southpaws. You can't say the same on the big side of the platoon.

Shift Mike Paredes to the Bullpen, and End the Woo-Suk Go Experiment
Because more pitching injuries seem to jump out at this team every time they turn the corner, the temptation to send Mike Paredes back to St. Paul to stay stretched out will be strong. The team will reinstate Cole Sands from the injured list soon, barring a setback in his rehab assignment, and Connor Prielipp could be close on Sands's heels. Optioning Paredes would allow him to stay available for bulk appearances and keep an extra arm in the organization; Go can't be optioned to the minors.

Paredes is the better pitcher, though. If you put all the pitches each hurler throws into a shared ranking, Paredes's sweeper and changeup would be first and second, ahead of anything Go throws. If the team hopes to compete into September or even reach October, they need a further infusion of pitching depth, anyway. They shouldn't prioritize preserving shaky depth over optimizing the skills of the players they have. Making Paredes a full-time reliever would give them a genuinely useful right-handed relief boost and leave flexibility for them to piggyback starts with Ober and/or Prielipp. It's the best short-term management plan for that roster spot, once Prielipp is healthy enough to resume his role as the fifth starter.

Start Ryan Kreidler at Shortstop Every Day
Until Kaelen Culpepper gets healthy again and has his nagging butt issue figured out (it's a glute muscle injury, but 'butt issue' is funnier, right?), the Twins should give Ryan Kreidler all the playing time at shortstop. There's no need to keep auditioning Tristan Gray there; there's no need to so much as keep Gray on the roster. When Buxton is activated (whether that comes immediately or in a week or so), Gray should be the rsoter casualty. Keeping Alex Jackson around until the trade deadline plan is fully solidified is a must. Roden and Austin Martin have clear utility for the team, even if it's limited to specific roles and their playing time will be a bit sparse. Gray, whose approach has collapsed and whose glove at shortstop has been unimpressive, has no such defense for being farmed out. 

By contrast, there are concrete reasons to play Kreidler more often, including against righties. For one thing, he's not hitting lefties at all. He's actually been much better against right-handed pitchers this year. He didn't hit well at all in the final stretch before the break, but neither did Gray. Offensively and defensively, Kreidler has been the superior player for weeks, now. He's also more versatile, and thus more worthy of keeping around whenever Culpepper does get the call. 

In the meantime, though, Kreidler should play every day. Lee can be the backup plan, for a little while. Each of these recommendations are about roster decision points. This one will come down to the Twins having the guts to jettison Gray when they reinstate Buxton, keeping three catchers and a bunch of guys they don't particularly like at various infield spots. Keaschall is an outfielder now; so is Martin. Clemens has slid as far up the defensive spectrum as is at all possible for him. Lee and Lewis are already playing different spots from the ones at which they began the campaign, and the new roles are demotions. 

Across the board, this is a team with flaws. They're 48-49 for a reason. With some momentum and improving health, however, they have a chance to make the playoffs, anyway. They ought to seize it, and that means making some changes that precede and even replace traditional "buyer"-coded trades.

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[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Shift Mike Paredes to the Bullpen, and End the Woo-Suk Go Experiment
 

Sending Paredes to the bullpen might make sense, but the so-called "Woo-Suk Go experiment" has only lasted 2 innings thus far. I doubt he will end up being a bullpen stalwart, but give the guy a chance. It's too soon to call him a failure. 

[stringer bell]

Maybe give some first base time to Caratini, but not a full-fledged platoon. Brooks Lee hasn't put up better numbers than Lewis since Royce returned and he isn't a discernably better fielder at third base, so if we want to ride out Caratini's hot streak, which I fear might already to over, giving Lee occasional days off also could be part of the plan.

I like Kreidler's glove at shortstop. I just don't know if he'll continue to hit enough to play every day. Given the alternatives, it makes sense to go with him for quite a long stretch. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

22 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

Shift Mike Paredes to the Bullpen, and End the Woo-Suk Go Experiment
 

Sending Paredes to the bullpen might make sense, but the so-called "Woo-Suk Go experiment" has only lasted 2 innings thus far. I doubt he will end up being a bullpen stalwart, but give the guy a chance. It's too soon to call him a failure. 

Yeah, I'm with you on this. With where the Twins are with the bullpen, they're not really in a position to end any 'experiment' without giving it the proper sample size. Go might well flame out, but I think you need more than 2 innings before making that determination.

[Parfigliano]

Just win baby!

[HarmonK03]

Make Royce Lewis a Platoon Bat

Caratini is hitting a career .247 with an OPS .699 against RH pitching.  So you are going to take a one month hot streak and sit a player with more potential and is better defensively even with limited experience.  Yes Lewis has to maintain his production, but the talent is there and they need to give him thru the end of year at least.  Otherwise trade him now, I think it would be a mistake.  But you don't sit him for Victor Caratini.  I would be upset too if I was Lewis if I was benched for a journeyman with 42 games started at 1B in his career.  

[dxpavelka]

If Kreidler's going to be your SS that might be an area of need.

 

[DJL44]

“Lewis can't make a strong case to play over Bell”

Lewis has a massive advantage in defensive value.

[DJL44]

Nobody should ever worry about a roster squeeze because all the pitchers are simultaneously healthy. It never happens.

[William K Johnson]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

“Lewis can't make a strong case to play over Bell”

Lewis has a massive advantage in defensive value.

I think he meant as a DH

[HarmonK03]

21 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

I think he meant as a DH

I would still take Lewis over Bell as DH over the course of a season.

[Parfigliano]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Nobody should ever worry about a roster squeeze because all the pitchers are simultaneously healthy. It never happens.

Not even opening day for TC

[TJSweens]

59 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Make Royce Lewis a Platoon Bat

Caratini is hitting a career .247 with an OPS .699 against RH pitching.  So you are going to take a one month hot streak and sit a player with more potential and is better defensively even with limited experience.  Yes Lewis has to maintain his production, but the talent is there and they need to give him thru the end of year at least.  Otherwise trade him now, I think it would be a mistake.  But you don't sit him for Victor Caratini.  I would be upset too if I was Lewis if I was benched for a journeyman with 42 games started at 1B in his career.  

Not to mention Lewis's OPS of .775 against RHP is about 50 points above major league average. Lewis is producing and playing a good first base. He is finally straightened out...leave him alone.

[thelanges5]

The next 16 games will decide the direction of the season. Ten on the road and six at home all of the road games against playoff hopefuls. I’d like to see them do a little light buying and selling. Remain competitive in 26 but don’t do anything to mortgage the future.

[Nshore]

Lewis has amazed me - I really thought he was done.  He looks good at a brand new position and seems to be getting better.   I'd keep him on the field as much as possible. Keaschall also seems to be really coming on after the move to the outfield.  He looks great out there.  Part of maximizing their chances comes from the continuous  improvement of those 2 players.

Jeffers, Buxton, Lewis, and Keaschall - I think that 's going to be some serious right handed firepower in the second half.

[JD-TWINS]

Agreed on Paredes and Kreidler.

Lewis upside at the plate is tough to ignore …… Caratini had a career month, that’s what Royce is being compared to here. I let Royce play nearly every day. I do not move him around in the infield unless there’s an injury. He’s the guy at 1B.

Jeffers probably should be traded, with logic in play, due to the contract situation. IF the organization prefers him to be the bulk catcher for remainder of the season, they need to trade Caratini quickly, at PEAK value. Caratini, because he’s under contract through next year, could probably bring back more than Jeffers.

I trade Jeffers & Bell ……. need Caratini for ‘27 season …… for continuity with staff. Team won at slightly higher than .500 with Caratini & Jackson behind the plate.

Bell & Jeffers combined salaries total $13.7M for ‘26………..Luis Arraez makes $12 M in ‘26. Make a BIG swing and work out a deal with the Giants! He moves to 2B everyday - Clemens can then play essentially everyday at LF - RF - 1B - DH. With Bell gone, Larnach moves to DH v RH pitching …. Clemens starts in LF v. RH pitching. Caratini can DH v RH pitching when not behind the plate ….. still needs real rest days as well. Keaschall can DH some & Arraez could DH some. Bell might hit .215 for remainder of season & worst case, Arraez may hit .290. Arraez OPS+ is 132. He’s playing a very good 2B. At this point, he’s got 3.1 WAR for the season.

His acquisition could offset any Clubhouse letdown from one of the Catchers being traded as well as Bell being traded.

Trade Jeffers & Bell to try & attain at least one decent relief arm & trade for Arraez. Arraez can slot behind Lewis (to provide protection) or Buxton.

[Colbeh]

I couldnt disagree more on your Royce take. For the first time in years hes starting to show good spirit and confidence and now we want to drop him down into a bench role? 

Hes reached base in almost every game since he's came back, we've been wanting a long term first basement for years and he's shown more promise than anyone since he returned.

Id rather take the risk and ride him out this year and see what he truly is. I believe theres still more to him than what we've seen so far.

[bean5302]

Better case to platoon Bell for a different team since he can't hit lefties, even if he has the platoon advantage from being able to stand in the right handed batters box and he's been league average at the plate for years.

He's been bad against lefties for years now. A blip this year doesn't erase who he is to me.

[Jeff K]

I think if you need at bats for Caratini, then maybe once a week, Lewis could play 3rd.  In addition, he has a day off.  That gets Caratini two days a week at 1st.  And if I want my best team without making trades, I find a way to get Walker Jenkins in the lineup.  Martin or Roden can be the 4th outfielder and Martin can still play some 2nd base.

[John Stamos Have Mercy Guy]

Sharing similar sentiments with other commenters. Starting Caratini or Kreidler regularly over Lewis would be ill advised. Lewis has been performing at a respectable clip since his recall - unplugging him from daily reps all but solidifies this season would be his final days in Minnesota. I'd much rather fortify my future with Culpepper, Keaschall & Lewis than a rapidly aging Caratini and a (albeit defensively sound) but more meek than mighty Ryan Kreidler. 

And Mike Paredes will likely be an OK pitcher, but pulling the plug on a relief pitcher in Go who showed promise and above average numbers on the mound in the minors is a bit premature. 

And I'll take Kreidler over Gray @ SS any day; and defensively, yes, Kreidler is fringe elite - but not a chance I'm holding down Culpepper any longer as soon as medical gives him the go ahead in St. Paul. His power, speed and glove potential could be enough of an injection to get the Twins knocking on the door of the division (if the pitching can hold up their end of the bargain). 

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Here are the key stat lines for Twins hitters against righty pitchers since June 1:

How much meaning is there for slash stat lines in a 6 week sample?

[nicksaviking]

No platoons. Or at least as few as possible.

I'm not sure why we'd want to mess with Lewis just to find at bats for Caratini. Having capable hitters on your bench is a good thing.

And while I know Lewis isn't exactly universally beloved here, cutting his role when he's finally doing what we originally hoped he would do seems more spiteful than anything. And if people are done with him, that's fine too. An overall good hitting Lewis would make for a good trade chip come this winter. Way better than a Lewis who was platooned.

[saviking]

It amazes me that almost every article seems to focus on shuffling lineups when we have ignored our bullpen since last off-season. There is no way we go anywhere without reforming the bullpen from outside the organization.  And what's crazy is relief pitchers are the least expensive players to pay. And most likely the easiest to trade for.

But I imagine management and followers will just keep a blinds eye to the penny and pretend it isn't are Achilles heal. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I think if you need at bats for Caratini, then maybe once a week, Lewis could play 3rd.  In addition, he has a day off.  That gets Caratini two days a week at 1st.  And if I want my best team without making trades, I find a way to get Walker Jenkins in the lineup.  Martin or Roden can be the 4th outfielder and Martin can still play some 2nd base.

I like the idea of using Caratini or Jeffers as a pinch hitter on their day off rather than using them in the field. With Kreidler in the lineup it gives them a pinch hitting opportunity every day. If Gray starts and Jeffers is on the bench you plan on using Jeffers to pinch hit and replace with Kreidler on defense. 

Caratini is a great strategic pinch hitter because he switch hits. That means the opposing team won’t pull their reliever for the platoon advantage.

Having the third catcher in Jackson gives them the opportunity to let Jeffers and Caratini get at least one plate appearance every day.

[DannySD]

With Lewis at 2B and Lee as backup SS as you suggest, the defense would suffer too much. They've prioritized D lately, so there's no way this happens. Royce's personailty and defensive chops are best suited for 1B. 

[Possumlad]

Seems like Matthew misses the days of Rocco super-platoons and early inning pinch hitters! I'm with the majority of the other commenters - let the bats with upside (Royce), especially when they've been performing the way he has recently. The less jerking around the better.

[DJL44]

I think they need to keep Paredes stretched out for the rotation. They have no depth beyond him. Send him to AAA to be the 6th starter. They don’t have a 7th starter at the moment.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Not to mention Lewis's OPS of .775 against RHP is about 50 points above major league average. Lewis is producing and playing a good first base. He is finally straightened out...leave him alone.

This. Sitting Lewis for Caratini really doesn’t make a lot of sense. Caratini can get a couple days a week behind the plate and a day or two at first base. That’s plenty of playing time for him. The lineup is better with Lewis in it. I frankly think the Twins success in the second half scoring runs in dependent really on about three guys and Lewis is one of them.

The other two suggestions though were right on. Paredes absolutely should stay in the bullpen. I would trade out Adams rather than Go. Use Paredes as a Long man when you can to keep him a little stretched out in case he needs to make a spot start or two. That’s his best and highest use anyway, three or four innings at a time.

Kriedler has to be the everyday shortstop until either Culpepper or Houston is ready, or his bat completely falls off the table. He’s the starting shortstop if he can hit over .200. Shortstop is the one position where defense trumps offense. I think it is no coincidence that the team has played substantially better baseball since he became the everyday shortstop because the defense is so much better. 

[HarmonK03]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think they need to keep Paredes stretched out for the rotation. They have no depth beyond him. Send him to AAA to be the 6th starter. They don’t have a 7th starter at the moment.

They haven't even attempted to develop a 7th starter, they have everyone pitching as a bulk guy.  They seem to have pushed all their chips in on this concept and it will catch up with them when they need depth.  And this is all the way thru the organization.

When I was at a game in Cedar Rapids, their game notes had an interesting note, the Kernels starters are averaging 3.1 innings which is dead last in the Midwest League.  This concept may have merit for some guys in the lower minors but it seems to becoming the prevailing method of development.