When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

A serious team woukd realize they are playing better in a league full of underperforming teams.  IMO they need to follow the philosophy of the Brewers and Rays.  Trade your better players when their value is high for even better prospects.  Playing the middle ground between 

I guess people would be more comfortable with trading Joe if they could visualize what that might look like. Let's say he goes to the Dodgers, or the Cubs, or the Padres. What package might we expect back in return from each of them, realistically? (Or any other team.youbrhino might be a taker.)

[gmwannabe]

Given that the poor returns on the Mahle, Berrios, Varland, and Polanco trades didn't net the Twins 1 solid everyday player, (with much of the same group of talent evaluating personnel still in the front office), I have little faith in the prospects they will get if they trade Ryan given their track record. Look no further than our recent 1st round draft busts other than Buxton and the lousy returns on these afore mentioned trades if you have any doubts. 

[Mike Sixel]

57 minutes ago, JADBP said:

I would do everything in my power to extend Ryan, asap.  Not because I want to decide if I trade him.  Rather because I REALLY WANT him pitching for the Twins for the next 4-5 years.  Same for Pablo.  But, not for Jeffers, Bell, etc.  

I think the real problem here is that the Twins WILL be facing a minimum payroll and it might be in the $170 mill range.  Maybe the league helps out small market teams but the Twins still have to fill that payroll.  They are a really young team and they WILL need 3-4 big salaries to reach that minimum.  So, that who? Buxton, Pablo and Ryan next year.  Then what?  They really don't have anyone else to draw over $20 million (maybe Lewis gets there).  So, they might end up trading or signing OVERPAID players just to hit the minimum! 

So, best to own up to the coming reality.  The league has already proposed a minimum to balance a cap (I like this).  Now, who do they sign now to extend into those minimum years?  Our best option is easy and his name is Joe Ryan

The risk, as I have mentioned many times, is what to do if Ryan doesn't want to sign.  That means you have to trade him at the deadline or this offseason as the very latest. If you keep him next year, you are betting that there still is a QO so you get that one more year out of him and even then, he might be underpaid with the QO.  So, like I said, the best plan is to do everything you can to sign him, even if you have to overpay a bit or have to give him a nice signing bonus.  He is going to be an outstanding SP for years to come...wouldn't you love him to be starting for the Twins instead of NYY or BOS or ATL?  

The final reason to sign him is that it will prove that Tom is a man of his word!  Nothing says he putting your money where your mouth is better than signing Ryan to a long term contract.

JUST GIT ER DONE!  Then all this speculation ends....

They aren't going to 170 in one year. Maybe over two or three. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Given that the poor returns on the Mahle, Berrios, Varland, and Polanco trades didn't net the Twins 1 solid everyday player, (with much of the same group of talent evaluating personnel still in the front office), I have little faith in the prospects they will get if they trade Ryan given their track record. Look no further than our recent 1st round draft busts other than Buxton and the lousy returns on these afore mentioned trades if you have any doubts. 

Ryan was traded for. Abel. Bradley. 

[Nshore]

This Twins team still seems full of possibilities.  Maybe the Cubs and Guardians will squash that hope, but I don't think so.  Teams often evolve for better or worse as the season progresses, and this team seems to definitely be getting stronger.  An asset like Ryan is extremely hard to come by.  Mr. Pohlad and Zoll, please don't screw this up.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JADBP said:

Good points, LA, but the CBA ends at the end of the World Series, so you CAN'T negotiate in the offseason as soon as the team strikes, which I assume is as soon as they can.  So, everyone gets  locked out of negotiating with players.  Then, we wait.  I agree, I don't expect a strike to go into the regular season, as the teams and the players will lose too much money.  But, it will make for one of those Silly Season trade windows.  All hell will break loose. 

I still say the best plan is to do everything possible to extend Ryan NOW, before the end of the trade window.  If he is adamant, and it is clear that nothing will move him now or off-season, to sign a long term contract, then yeah, trade him.  But maybe Joe needs to step in here and talk with Ryan.  There is a new sheriff in town.  Pay him.  Overpay him.  Give him a bonus.  Git er done.  And, if all of that fails, then yeah, trade him.  He's a grown up and if he adamantly wants to change teams, the do it.    

This isn't quite true. The CBA expires at 11:59 PM ET on December 1, not at the end of the World Series. The general thought at this point is the owners lockout the players at 12 AM on December 2. It's possible one side or the other decides to act earlier than that, but that's not the likely chain of events. There will be a month-ish of offseason before a labor stoppage. 

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

There has been lots of speculation about a cap / floor as part of the new CBA. I don’t think that is likely as you only get a floor if the owners get a cap. The players union has fought a cap tooth and nail in prior negotiations so I don’t think it is likely. If it does happen it probably means the 2027 season is screwed. 

The player's union says they are totally against it, but if you get away from the big player contracts to the lesser guys, I'm sure in secret they are gung ho for a salary floor.  They are the ones that will benefit most from a salary floor not the star players already getting paid massive contracts

[jimbo92107]

Joe Ryan is the best, most reliable starting pitcher the Twins have had in a long, long time. He pitches within himself, paces himself, pitches with an excellent plan, and appears to be durable long term. Getting rid of him would be the epitomy of stoooopid, so...well, it's been nice knowing ya, Joe. 

[amjgt]

5 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

An extension isn't an option?

We could also DFA him. Seems as likely as an extension. 😜

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

There is a 0% chance I'm trading Joe Ryan at the deadline this year. I am doing everything to extend him. Period. If hes not a Twin past next season, it would be a great disappointment. 

If Pohlad is serious he needs to find a way to keep players like Ryan around. Pay him. Pay that man his money. 

[amjgt]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This isn't quite true. The CBA expires at 11:59 PM ET on December 1, not at the end of the World Series. The general thought at this point is the owners lockout the players at 12 AM on December 2. It's possible one side or the other decides to act earlier than that, but that's not the likely chain of events. There will be a month-ish of offseason before a labor stoppage. 

And to add a little flavor to this...

Any QO decisions from teams have to be made by about November 5th (depends on what day the Worlds Series ends) and then the decision from the player needs to be made within 10 days of that. So those things would happen prior to a lockout.

I know that doesn't affect the MAIN topic of this thread (Joe Ryan) but it does affect someone who's been brought up several times here (Ryan Jeffers)

[amjgt]

Maybe he's been brought up in this thread and it was just a post I skimmed over, but an extension for Pablo seems way more likely that Joe. 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have them both beyond 2027, anchoring the rotation, with some combination of Taj, Abel, Prielipp, and Zebby filling it out. You pair that with a lineup that is good now (with a little smoke and mirrors) but looks to be building towards a young, fun 2027/28 and you've got a team that you don't have to squint to see having good sustainable success.

But I just don't see both Pablo and Joe both being around past 2027. And based on the AAV and years that it might take, I view Pablo as a more likely, lower cost, lower risk extension candidate. 

[Stew]

An extension could be an option. But will his agent ask for a lot more? Will they have to give a qualifying offer . There is a lot to look over.you have other contracts to deal with. Lopez has one more year . It would make since to hold on Ryan and negotiate an extension. Then see if lopez is pitching well. If he is good he could be on the trading block. He is paid eight million more than ryan next year. And the twins have stated they may not trade jeffers. I don't see us keeping all three.

[Hubie29]

I'm afraid if we trade our ace, and maybe lose or trade Lopez, we will be back to the Bundy, Archer Shoemaker days. I am not confident Matthews, Festa, Prielipp etc, etc are going to get it done. You have to keep the pitching when you have it. 

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I'm afraid if we trade our ace, and maybe lose or trade Lopez, we will be back to the Bundy, Archer Shoemaker days. I am not confident Matthews, Festa, Prielipp etc, etc are going to get it done. You have to keep the pitching when you have it. 

What's your plan after next year? 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

There is a 0% chance I'm trading Joe Ryan at the deadline this year. I am doing everything to extend him. Period. If hes not a Twin past next season, it would be a great disappointment. 

If Pohlad is serious he needs to find a way to keep players like Ryan around. Pay him. Pay that man his money. 

The numbers provided in this thread by way of Dan Hayes reporting is 7 years, $210 million. Are you willing to pay 34-, 35-, 36-, and 37-year-old Joe Ryan $30 million a year? More power to ya if you are, but I think that's a contract that the vast majority of Twins fans are bemoaning when it's killing their payroll in 4 years.

[bean5302]

1) Trade him.
2) Don't trade him.

Those are the 2 legitimate deadline options the Twins have. The rest is just general planning unrelated to the deadline.

If we need to expand out options to get to 4 items:

1) Trade him for MLB ready prospects in areas of immediate need.
2) Trade him for MLB players in a direct MLB/MLB swap from an area of surplus from a contender.
3) Trade him for high ceiling, high risk players.
4) Don't trade him. 

If we want to expand out to 4 unique options, and we've got to get silly here.
1) Trade him
2) Keep him on the 26 man roster.
3) Option him to AAA (yes, he'll decline the option, it was silly enough as-is...)
4) DFA him 

 

[mike8791]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Can you name a single trade of a pitcher that returned a major league closer and cleanup hitter? Like a single trade in the history of baseball? That is a wildly outrageous ask. What buying team is selling their closer and cleanup hitter for a pitcher?

If you read my post, I mention getting one reliever who can step in this year as a solid late inning arm better than 6 of our current relief staff and as a potential closer who could step in if Gomez falters - a very real possibility considering his past performance.  And, yes, a second offensive addition who is close to ML ready with good potential to slide into the #3 or 4 spot as soon as next year.  For trading Ryan, this would be a worthwhile trade both for now and in the future.

[IndianaTwin]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan was traded for. Abel. Bradley. 

As was Jhoan Duran…

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, JADBP said:

Good points, LA, but the CBA ends at the end of the World Series, so you CAN'T negotiate in the offseason as soon as the team strikes, which I assume is as soon as they can.  So, everyone gets  locked out of negotiating with players.  Then, we wait.  I agree, I don't expect a strike to go into the regular season, as the teams and the players will lose too much money.  But, it will make for one of those Silly Season trade windows.  All hell will break loose. 

I still say the best plan is to do everything possible to extend Ryan NOW, before the end of the trade window.  If he is adamant, and it is clear that nothing will move him now or off-season, to sign a long term contract, then yeah, trade him.  But maybe Joe needs to step in here and talk with Ryan.  There is a new sheriff in town.  Pay him.  Overpay him.  Give him a bonus.  Git er done.  And, if all of that fails, then yeah, trade him.  He's a grown up and if he adamantly wants to change teams, the do it.    

CBA ends December 1. Expect a flurry of activity before that date.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-competitive-balance-issue-explained.html

[jorgenswest]

All significant free agents sign contracts where the last few years of those deals look bad. It might be worth it. It is so hard to build a playoff caliber starting rotation from pitchers in their first 6 years of control. Teams like Minnesota really don’t get 6. They get 5 and if they want to sell at peak value they get 4. In Ryan’s case and many others those first few years are not playoff caliber. Joe wasn’t ready in 2023 to be that playoff starter.

Maybe we will trade Joe Ryan this month and give up 2 years of playoff control. Next will be Bradley. He looks playoff caliber this year. He is also entering arbitration. Another good year and after 2027 from now there will be conversation about selling high. There certainly will be a push to trade him by the 2028 deadline. How do they ever build that staff when they spend a few years of the 6 developing and then are rightly motivated to trade off the last 2 of 6 of playoff control?

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are feeling pretty solid about their catching situation. They seem to have some reasonable pieces in the outfield. Any trade of Joe Ryan would need to be for someone noteworthy. I'm hesitant to trade Ryan but willing if the return is a player with greater value than Walker Jenkins, preferably an infielder with a bat and a glove. The problem is in the return. I'm not seeing much worth even thinking about. Just recently, for example there was a Cubs rumor that I would completely disregard (Ryan for Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara, Brandon Birdsell, and Brett Bateman). I would rather add a Charlee Soto or Dasan Hill to Ryan if the return is a top prospect along the lines of Jesus Made, Leodalis De Vries, Franklin Arias, or Eli Willits. Those guys seem untouchable. Until I hear a name or names worth my time, I'm holding Ryan. It is definitely a predicament. 

Lastly, the next 16 games are, indeed, important to the Twins as an indication of compete level and direction.

[DocBauer]

I am amazed at obtuse thinking. 

Ryan has never said he wanted to be traded. He only stated last season that it was "interesting" to hear his name in a BS report about being traded.

He's throwing as well as he ever has.

The trade BS should just go away. He's a Twin for 2027 PERIOD.

The FO is going to have to make a decision between extending Lopez or Ryan.  But that's a few months away.

[HrbieFan]

20 hours ago, Possumlad said:

Extending both Buck & Ryan would be a great way for Pohlad to get butts in the seats. If Tom wants to redefine his early tenure as managing owner, extending both gives him a lot of goodwill & flex in other areas.

Cute pipe dream! I believe Buck wants to stay a Twin for life and the Twins will make that happen. Extending Ryan is a disservice to the future of the Twins. The risk/reward just isn't worth it fir a franchise like MN. Ryan is looking at a $40m per contract, we can not afford that. Trade him for 2-3 top 10 prospects and can thus season. 

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

CBA ends December 1. Expect a flurry of activity before that date.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-competitive-balance-issue-explained.html

Maybe. I think it depends on how adamant the owners are about getting a hard salary cap. With a hard cap, making the wrong moves just before a CBA could be catastrophic like it was for the Minnesota Wild in the NHL.

I can't gauge how resolute owners are on the hard cap.

[LA Vikes Fan]

19 hours ago, DataNerd said:

Agree with the general take, but I'm much more on the fence with him.  There is still time before the deadline to either make up ground or fall back.  We also need to see what the available offers are; getting a top 20 prospect is going to make it much easier to pull the trigger than if you aren't even getting top 50 guys back, and we don't know what offers actually will exist.

I hear that and think it's a good take, probably the right one. We play 10 games in a row starting Friday, 3 in Chicago against the Cubs, 4 in Cleveland, and 3 home games against the As. That's 3 road games against a good team, 4 roadies against a similarly situated team, and 3 home games against a fading, not very good team. That gets us to July 27, a week before the deadline, and 107 games, one short of exactly 2/3 of the schedule. We go 7-3 or better in those 10 games, keep Ryan and buy, buy, buy. We go 3-7 or worse, start making calls and see if a team will knock our socks with an offer. In the more likely event we go somewhere between 6-4 and 4-6 (I would actually predict we go 5-5; 1-2 v. Chi, 2-2 vs. Cleve, 2-1 vs. Oak), then I fall back to my position of keeping Ryan through 2026, trading him in the off season if we get a really big offer, and if not, trading him at the 2027 deadline unless we think we're contending for a championship.   

[Mike Sixel]

ATL and the Cubs seem like the teams that need Ryan, and have deep systems. If you're interested, check out their lists. 

It's possible, not likely, the twins deal both Ryans to nyy, but that would deplete the top of that system. So I doubt it. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

ATL and the Cubs seem like the teams that need Ryan, and have deep systems. If you're interested, check out their lists. 

It's possible, not likely, the twins deal both Ryans to nyy, but that would deplete the top of that system. So I doubt it. 

Caminiti and Hartman.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Caminiti and Hartman.

I'm interested to see fangraphs updates to Atlanta, as several guys are much improved. 

Frankly, I think the Twins keep both Ryans.....

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm interested to see fangraphs updates to Atlanta, as several guys are much improved. 

Frankly, I think the Twins keep both Ryans.....

I think Hartman is already on most other top 100s now. Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says about him in their update.

I wouldn't be surprised if they kept them both. A little disappointed if they don't deal at least Jeffers, but not surprised.