The Twins' Next Star Outfielder Might Not Be Who You Think

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It blows my mind. Hendry Mendez still doesn't get enough recognition for just how good he actually is. When people talk about the Twins' farm system, the conversation usually starts with names like Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper. Those are tremendous prospects, and they deservedly get a lot of attention. But somehow, Mendez continues to fly under the radar, despite doing nothing but produce and thrive wherever he's sent.

Since earning a promotion to Triple-A earlier this season, Mendez has been one of the most impressive hitters in the entire organization. Through his first 130 plate appearances with the St. Paul Saints, the 22-year-old is hitting .330 with an absurd .438 on-base percentage. He's added eight extra-base hits, three stolen bases, and more walks than strikeouts. That’s elite production at the highest level of the minors, and yet he’s not even mentioned as a potential Top-100 prospect.

I think it's time that that changes. The ceiling outcome for Hendry Mendez isn't that he becomes a useful big leaguer or settles in as a complementary piece. However improbable it might feel, the ceiling outcome is that Mendez is simply a star for the Twins.

For starters, it's important to remember just how young he is. Mendez is doing all of this at 22 years old. It would be one thing if he were a 26- or 27-year-old beating up on Triple-A pitching. There have been plenty of older players who put up gaudy numbers at that level. But most 22-year-olds aren't even in Triple-A yet, let alone hitting .330. Some regression is likely coming, but the underlying numbers still paint an extremely encouraging picture. His expected batting average sits at .291, which is lower than his actual mark but still highly impressive for a player his age facing advanced pitching.

The biggest reason for that success is that Mendez is an incredibly disciplined hitter. He’s chasing just 19 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's an elite mark, and one that speaks volumes about his approach. Young hitters often get themselves into trouble by expanding the zone and helping pitchers out. Mendez does the exact opposite; he forces pitchers to come after him. And when they do, he makes them pay. He's currently sporting a 51% hard-hit rate, which is an outstanding number. The ball is coming off his bat with authority, and he's consistently making quality contact.

The interesting part, however, is that it hasn't translated into as much extra-base damage as you might expect, and I think that's one of the reasons Mendez doesn't get talked about quite as much as some of the Twins' other top prospects. He doesn't have Emmanuel Rodriguez-type power. Mendez hit 11 home runs across 118 games last season. This year, he has eight homers through his first 52 games. Over a full 162-game season, that's roughly a 20-home run pace. For a corner outfielder, that's solid. But it's not necessarily the kind of power production that makes you stand out. Still, I think there's another level available here.

Despite how hard Mendez is hitting the baseball, a significant portion of that contact is resulting in singles. The primary reason is that he hits a ton of ground balls. More than half of the balls Mendez puts in play—54%, to be precise—are hit on the ground. Ground balls can certainly find holes, especially for a hitter with his bat-to-ball skills, but they aren't typically the best path to unlocking power.

It's difficult to drive the ball into the gap when you're pounding it into the dirt. And even when Mendez does elevate the baseball, he's not consistently hitting the type of fly balls that generate significant damage. His pulled fly-ball rate sits at just 5.5%. That's a notable number, because pulled fly balls are one of the easiest ways for hitters to create extra-base production. When players pull the ball in the air, that's where a large percentage of doubles and home runs come from. When you're not doing that very often, the power output naturally lags behind.

To be perfectly clear, I don't think the Twins should try to completely overhaul Mendez's approach. The last thing anyone wants is to take a hitter who’s producing at a high level and start tinkering too much. His plate discipline is excellent, his contact quality is excellent, and his ability to control the strike zone is excellent. Those are traits worth preserving. But I do think there's room for some natural growth. Mendez is plenty strong enough to produce more power than he currently does. If he can turn some of those ground balls into line drives and fly balls, the extra-base production could take a significant step forward. It doesn't need to be a dramatic change. Even a modest increase in his launch angle could unlock another level offensively, which would say a lot considering where he’s already at. That's a really exciting possibility, which is why I firmly believe Mendez has the upside of a future star. Rodriguez and Jenkins receive most of the attention when discussing Twins outfield prospects, and for good reason--they're exceptional talents.

But at the exact same level, Mendez has out-produced both of them so far this season. Whether that continues remains to be seen, but the performance deserves recognition. It's unclear when he'll make his major-league debut, or whether that opportunity comes later this season or sometime in 2027. The good news for Mendez is that he's already on the 40-man roster, meaning he won't have to clear another hurdle before getting his chance.

He feels like the type of hitter who would hit the ground running the moment that opportunity arrives. His discipline is advanced, his approach is advanced, and he hits the ball hard. And because of those traits, whenever the time inevitably comes, Hendry Mendez has the ceiling of a star. 

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[thelanges5]

Bader trade looking good so far. Be good to see him back in the AAA lineup. He was placed on the 7-day IL on June 13th but may be back at the end of the week. 

[Mike Sixel]

Really wish he could play first! Big believer.

[DJL44]

The bat looks good. I’m not sure he’s an outfielder.

[miller761]

Hasn't he played some 1B this year?

 

[thelanges5]

11 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Hasn't he played some 1B this year?

 

Only 11 innings according to his MiLB page. 

[JD-TWINS]

Mendez for Keaschall until the All-star break, then re-evaluate. Clemens to 2B.

Fedko looked great in St. Paul …………

[Linus]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The bat looks good. I’m not sure he’s an outfielder.

Everything I’ve read is that he is not a good outfielder I was encouraged when they started playing him at first but that seems to have stopped. 

[gman]

Bring up Wallner again and hope he hits a bunch through the All star break. Then trade him and Larnach post break. Bring up Mendez and let him play the second half. Also Jenkins and perhaps Rodriguez if he's ready to go. I assume Mendez in left and Jenkins in right. Of course there is Gonzalez and Roden? Maybe bring them all up and let them play. Might have to also trade Bell and Martin.

[mickster]

11 minutes ago, gman said:

Bring up Wallner again and hope he hits a bunch through the All star break. Then trade him and Larnach post break. Bring up Mendez and let him play the second half. Also Jenkins and perhaps Rodriguez if he's ready to go. I assume Mendez in left and Jenkins in right. Of course there is Gonzalez and Roden? Maybe bring them all up and let them play. Might have to also trade Bell and Martin.

Even in Wallner hits, he wont get much more than a lottery ticket.  Larnach has developed into a good bat.  Why bring up those that are still developing.  Go to St. Paul and watch them.   Bell needs to stay as he won't bring back anything and now you want to get rid of Martin.   

[FlyingFinn]

I love how Mendez is playing this year. The problem still is that he is limited to LF and DH, is supposedly bad on defense out in LF, and is a singles hitter. 

[jkcarew]

And…..he’s hurt. Hasn’t played since June 9th.

Probably should have been worth a mention in the article?

[Steve Lein]

Mendez is by far the biggest riser in my voting for the Top 20 prospects this season. He was #17 in Spring Training, and I had him at #6 in the recent update. I'm a believer, because he's a hitter.

Needs to come back from his shoulder injury and they have to find him a defensive position, but his bat is going to play.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

And…..he’s hurt. Hasn’t played since May 9th.

Probably should have been worth a mention in the article?

Hasn't played since June 9th. Not May 9th. 

[bean5302]

Mendez's numbers at AAA are too SSS to take much from them at this point. He's got an extraordinary line drive rate so the ground ball rate really doesn't matter much. It he can suddenly become a 30% line drive hitter, he'll have success.

Honestly, I expect him to be a lot like Gabriel Gonzalez as the plate appearances add up, but he's worth watching. 

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

Mendez is by far the biggest riser in my voting for the Top 20 prospects this season. He was #17 in Spring Training, and I had him at #6 in the recent update. I'm a believer, because he's a hitter.

Needs to come back from his shoulder injury and they have to find him a defensive position, but his bat is going to play.

I look at it completely the opposite way. If Mendez is, in fact, poor defensively (which tbf is probably tbd), then to be a needle-mover, he needs to be more than a  good hitter, he has to be a VERY good hitter…it’s a higher and more rare bar to clear. Pretty good analogy in Larnach…he’s sitting at an OPS+ of 120…and on pace for a full-year bWAR of barely 2. It’s because he’s worse than replacement level in the field.

It’s exactly why I had Houston as my biggest mover. The hitting bar for a good defensive shortstop to be a needle mover is light years lower than that for a poor corner outfielder or a mediocre first baseman. And that bar is looking increasingly realistic for him.

Not saying you can’t win with a Larnach-like profile at a corner outfield spot or first base. Absolutely you can. Don’t need all-stars at every position. I actually like Mendez a lot, also. And he could definitely get to a higher level than Larnach offensively (and defensively, for that matter?)…especially with a little more power as he develops.

[bjorks]

The Twins...Kings of the Platoon Outfield.  Need a bench bat and capable CF? Call the Twins! they've even put Kody Clemens in CF. Need a lefty bench bat that that'll be anywhere from 90-100 wRC+? Call the Twins! Do you value pinch runners with a good glove who flirt with the Mendoza Line? Call the Twins! Don't forget the annual Pohlad Summer Sales Event! Looking for AAAA "Organizational Depth"? We got'em!

"We can't turn any of them into a 1B, am I right? Everyone must go!" T. Pohlad

[tony&rodney]

Hendry Mendez is fun to watch; he's a hitter. The reason Mendez was traded and the reason he is not ranked as highly as some others is directly related to his ability to contribute in the field. My hope is that with Falvey gone the Twins can begin to focus on players who can play defense as well as hit. It's fine to have a DH and maybe even one guy wearing a glove for his bat on defense. The Twins have too many DH types though which clogs up the roster with unplayable gloves. Mendez will get a chance to outhit every other fellow on the roster and claim the DH spot. There is a ton of value in a Yordan Alvarez. Just keep him as the DH five out of every seven days.

[old nurse]

The Twins Daily staff must run a preposterous story contest, If you know who the clown from brown is, you know the bit.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

There have been plenty of older players who put up gaudy numbers at that level. But most 22-year-olds aren't even in Triple-A yet, let alone hitting .330. 

Is that really accurate about players his age in AAA? I honestly don't know for sure, but that seems about the right age for a prospect coming up through the system. But please correct me if I'm mistaken. It seems to me like a 22-year-old should be knocking at the doors of the major leagues. 

[Steve Lein]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I look at it completely the opposite way. If Mendez is, in fact, poor defensively (which tbf is probably tbd), then to be a needle-mover, he needs to be more than a  good hitter, he has to be a VERY good hitter…it’s a higher and more rare bar to clear. Pretty good analogy in Larnach…he’s sitting at an OPS+ of 120…and on pace for a full-year bWAR of barely 2. It’s because he’s worse than replacement level in the field.

It’s exactly why I had Houston as my biggest mover. The hitting bar for a good defensive shortstop to be a needle mover is light years lower than that for a poor corner outfielder or a mediocre first baseman. And that bar is looking increasingly realistic for him.

Not saying you can’t win with a Larnach-like profile at a corner outfield spot or first base. Absolutely you can. Don’t need all-stars at every position. I actually like Mendez a lot, also. And he could definitely get to a higher level than Larnach offensively (and defensively, for that matter?)…especially with a little more power as he develops.

The comparison I would make is Luis Arraez. The Twins had to play him somewhere because the bat was that pesky and good. They have very comparable hitting profiles, but in the prospect comparison, Mendez's OPS at AA and AAA is considerably higher.

While I don't think Mendez necessarily will win batting titles, what he does do a lot better is draw walks, so I think the final output can be similar.

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hendry Mendez is fun to watch; he's a hitter. The reason Mendez was traded and the reason he is not ranked as highly as some others is directly related to his ability to contribute in the field. My hope is that with Falvey gone the Twins can begin to focus on players who can play defense as well as hit. It's fine to have a DH and maybe even one guy wearing a glove for his bat on defense. The Twins have too many DH types though which clogs up the roster with unplayable gloves. Mendez will get a chance to outhit every other fellow on the roster and claim the DH spot. There is a ton of value in a Yordan Alvarez. Just keep him as the DH five out of every seven days.

Reminds me of the dark days 2012-2013.  Call it the Doumit-Willingham era, where every player who was acquired seemed to come with the caveat, "and if nothing else, he can DH," forgetting that they had a stud catcher who needed days at DH because his bat was too good to sit on his days off.

[Linus]

I was hopeful he would end up at first but that apparently not happening. I am interested in another poor fielder only if he hits like Tony O. Otherwise let’s be done with slo pitch softball lineups.