How Much Did the Twins Playoff Odds Change Following Pablo López’s Injury?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The news surrounding Pablo López cast an immediate shadow over Minnesota’s spring outlook, and the numbers shifted just as quickly as the mood inside the clubhouse.

According to FanGraphs, the Twins saw their playoff odds fall from 31.7% to 26.6% following the announcement that López is expected to miss the 2026 season after suffering a torn UCL. While López will receive a second opinion, the expectation is that he will miss significant time and is likely headed for Tommy John surgery. Minnesota built its roster around stability in the starting rotation, and losing its ace before Opening Day creates a ripple effect that impacts everything from bullpen usage to innings distribution across the staff.

Interestingly, Jared Greenspan of MLB.com recently listed the Twins as one of 10 teams capable of outperforming their playoff odds in 2026. He pointed to the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays as an example of a club that beat the projections and played its way into October. However, those projections for Minnesota were calculated before López’s injury became public, which means the climb is now steeper than initially expected.

Reasons Why the Odds Are Against Them
1. Losing Their Ace: The most obvious hurdle is replacing López at the top of the rotation. Minnesota can shuffle names into his spot, but there is no internal option capable of replicating the value he provided every fifth day. His leadership will also be sorely missed, as young pitchers get their first full season at the big-league level.

2. Shortstop Depth Chart: Shortstop depth is another concern, with Baseball America recently saying, “They don’t have a shortstop.” The Twins are projected to rank 30th in fWAR at the position. Brooks Lee has shown flashes at the big-league level, but has also battled injuries and inconsistency. Kaelen Culpepper broke out last season but has yet to play above Double-A. Marek Houston is widely viewed as the organization’s best defensive shortstop, but evaluators still question whether his bat will play at the highest level.

3. Bullpen Rebuild: Minnesota also lacks proven high-leverage right-handed relievers after trading Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland at last year’s deadline. The club can hope for more from Cole Sands and Justin Topa, but both may ultimately be better suited for middle-inning roles.

4. Lack of Offensive Upgrades: Offensively, the lineup needs internal growth. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have shown the ability to be impact hitters, but each needs to recover from an underwhelming 2025 to offset the loss of run prevention on the pitching side. Josh Bell was the team's biggest offseason signing, but he can't save the entire lineup.

Reasons Why They Can Defy the Odds
1. Rotational Depth: Even without López, Minnesota still has rotation depth that many teams would envy. Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Zebby Matthews now move up the depth chart and will have opportunities to prove they can handle meaningful innings in a competitive environment.

2. Potential All-Star Players: The Twins also feature two of the best players in the division in Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan. Both can carry stretches of a season and swing the outcome of tight games, which often determine postseason positioning in the AL Central. Luke Keaschall could also build on a strong rookie campaign that included a 134 wRC+ and further lengthen the lineup; the projections like his bat a lot.

3. Prospects on the Verge: Help may arrive from Triple-A sooner rather than later. Outfielders Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez can all provide an offensive boost for a lineup that struggled in the second half. Left-handed pitchers Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas are two of the most exciting arms in the system, but they struggled in their first taste of Triple-A. Any of the names above could provide a meaningful boost over the course of the season.

A five-percentage-point drop in playoff odds feels significant in February, because there are no wins in the bank yet. Everything is theoretical, and projections become the loudest voice in the room. But 26.6% is not zero. It is not a white flag. It's a reminder that the margin for error just shrank.

For Minnesota to beat the odds, several things must happen simultaneously. The young arms stepping into larger roles can't simply survive. They need to be legitimate contributors. The lineup can't tread water. It must produce at a top-half-of-the-league level, making good on what has looked like stalled talent the last two years. The bullpen can't just piece together outs. It needs to develop new late-inning answers.

At the same time, baseball history is filled with teams that looked finished on paper before the games started. The difference between 31.7% and 26.6% is meaningful in a model, but over 162 games, it can be erased by one breakout season, one unexpected rookie, or one dominant stretch from a star player. In 2017, they entered the season with a similarly unimpressive chance to make the postseason, according to Baseball Prospectus. They shocked everyone that year, and they have the latent talent to do so again. That's the bet Minnesota is now making.

Losing López changes the ceiling, and it certainly complicates the path. But it doesn't eliminate it. If the Twins are going to defy expectations, they will have to do it the hard way with internal growth, health from their core players, and impact from prospects knocking on the door. The projections have adjusted. Now the organization has to respond.

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Do you believe the Twins can beat their playoff odds? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[old nurse]

Feed the negatives a bone to chew on. Cody is becoming a master at it.  So many things have to go right that the odds wouldn’t change for making the playoffs. Winning in the playoffs is now much harder 

[dberthia]

Here's a better mathematical analysis

[D.C Twins]

Yes... they went from 1% to 0.1%.... 

[OregonTwinsFan]

Admittedly, it doesn't look good for our Twins...but there is a chance they defy expectations and put together a winning season. That's why they play the games.

[LambchoP]

I'm expecting another massive sell off at the deadline. Best we can hope for is young, MLB or near MLB ready talent in exchange for Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers.

[Linus]

The old saying is “slim and none, and slim just left town”. My non- snarky answer would be prior to the injury they had to have several things break their way to make the playoffs. That list just got longer. Being their best starter pretty much means he is one of if not the most important player. 

[DJL44]

Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins. If they actually made the playoffs, it would be partly due to Pablo Lopez leading the rotation with a 4-5 win season. There are two options here:

a) Pablo Lopez is only a 1.5 WAR projected pitcher. Fangraphs doesn't think he's likely to be good for a whole season.

b) Mick Abel is a 3 WAR pitcher and he was being blocked by Pablo.

Otherwise, if you project Pablo as a 3 WAR pitcher and subtract 3 wins for his injury, that puts the Twins win projection at 77. With 77 wins, the playoff odds decrease from 31.7% down to somewhere below 20%.

Regardless, Fangraphs currently has the Twins as the #22 team in their rankings - below the Reds and the Athletics. It thinks the Rays are a stronger team, but the Twins have a better playoff chance due to their weak division.

[CRF]

What??

[LastOnePicked]

Imagine using the phrase "playoff odds" and "wins in the bank" about a 72-win team with a roster that got worse even before the next season began.

I know, it's all just fun with projections. And that's fine. But this is a team without an ace, a shortstop, a competent defense and a bullpen. Teams in that situation always share the same playoff odds: 0%.

[DataNerd]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins.

Main reason the drop isn't as much is because models like our pitching depth, and so the innings that were going to Lopez at a 3 WAR rate got moved to Bradley/Matthews/SWR/Abel who are going at a 1.5 WAR rate.

[Major League Ready]

It might help their odds of getting into the playoffs in 28 or 29.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

Main reason the drop isn't as much is because models like our pitching depth, and so the innings that were going to Lopez at a 3 WAR rate got moved to Bradley/Matthews/SWR/Abel who are going at a 1.5 WAR rate.

I understand why the average number of wins would go down by 1.5, but the 90th percentile projection should go down by more than that. That upside projection is what gets them into the playoffs. They have a 0% chance at making the playoffs with 78-79 wins.

[Whitey333]

Losing Pablo is a big blow no doubt.  But lets face the facts that this team was going nowhere with him.  This team is weak in so many areas that even with Lopez pitching once a week wouldn't have helped all that much.  Just settle in for a long boring summer of some of the worse Twins baseball ever.

[Taildragger8791]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins. If they actually made the playoffs, it would be partly due to Pablo Lopez leading the rotation with a 4-5 win season. There are two options here:

a) Pablo Lopez is only a 1.5 WAR projected pitcher. Fangraphs doesn't think he's likely to be good for a whole season.

b) Mick Abel is a 3 WAR pitcher and he was being blocked by Pablo.

Otherwise, if you project Pablo as a 3 WAR pitcher and subtract 3 wins for his injury, that puts the Twins win projection at 77. With 77 wins, the playoff odds decrease from 31.7% down to somewhere below 20%.

Regardless, Fangraphs currently has the Twins as the #22 team in their rankings - below the Reds and the Athletics. It thinks the Rays are a stronger team, but the Twins have a better playoff chance due to their weak division.

To your point, I don't think these models accurately capture a loss like this. Players aren't just stats on a box score. You can't easily quantify his leadership on a staff experiencing a youth infusion, his ability to be a stopper when the team is scuffling, and his ability to take pressure off the bullpen which most  other nights is picking up 5 high leverage innings.

I also think these models overrate young prospects. It's not just dropping in a smooth 4.50 ERA in place of a 3.70 ERA. There will be an uncomfortable number of blow-up starts while sorting out readiness and learning curves for half-baked rookies. The bullpen will be taxed and see a collectively higher ERA. Other starters may have to eat more innings on an off night because the bullpen needs a break. To me this is easily 4-5 losses unless they find another steady arm, and that assumes Ryan and Ober are solid all year.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins. If they actually made the playoffs, it would be partly due to Pablo Lopez leading the rotation with a 4-5 win season. There are two options here:

a) Pablo Lopez is only a 1.5 WAR projected pitcher. Fangraphs doesn't think he's likely to be good for a whole season.

b) Mick Abel is a 3 WAR pitcher and he was being blocked by Pablo.

Otherwise, if you project Pablo as a 3 WAR pitcher and subtract 3 wins for his injury, that puts the Twins win projection at 77. With 77 wins, the playoff odds decrease from 31.7% down to somewhere below 20%.

Regardless, Fangraphs currently has the Twins as the #22 team in their rankings - below the Reds and the Athletics. It thinks the Rays are a stronger team, but the Twins have a better playoff chance due to their weak division.

I like Pablo. A lot. 

And it does seem that a 1.5 game loss underestimates his effect. That said, in the five post-COVID years, he has averaged 3.5 bWAR per 162 games. So if you work from there, that does change the math on what would be expected from his replacement.  

[HerbieFan]

From "slim-to-none" comes to mind

[Parfigliano]

I wish I had bet the TC under win total on Sunday.

[twinssporto]

[twinssporto]

1 minute ago, twinssporto said:

The odds are looooooooooooooong, Twins Fans! I'll wager a $1.

[David Maro]

What helps a pitchers era is a team playing good defense and this team doesn't do that. Yes they have a CF who does that,but pretty much every other position is a question mark. So if you're pitcher gets 7 SO's the defense is responsible for the other 20 outs. Now the other problem is can this team start playing baseball on the offensive side and not always swing for the fences. Last time I looked you have to score at least 1 more run than the opponent to win. It could be a really long season and time to give some of the young guys playing time.

[Twinsrtheworst]

I am reminded of 2023… most of the loud negative “writers” on here were screaming to punt on that season before it even began!  To me it sounds like a majority of TD gives up every year before the season starts.  Hey negativity sells I guess.  But it also spreads and Cody that is what you do best, create and spread negativity..

[Blyleven2011]

On 2/18/2026 at 10:49 AM, D.C Twins said:

Yes... they went from 1% to 0.1%.... 

I knew it was a Cody article before I clicked on , I hate being right all the time ...

There was no reason to read it because I agree with you that our playoff chance were nil to begin with ...

[JADBP]

7 hours ago, se7799 said:

I am reminded of 2023… most of the loud negative “writers” on here were screaming to punt on that season before it even began!  To me it sounds like a majority of TD gives up every year before the season starts.  Hey negativity sells I guess.  But it also spreads and Cody that is what you do best, create and spread negativity..

Nope.  At some point, you just have to accept reality that is about to smack you in the face like a 2ft snowfall followed by days of temperatures preceded by a minus sign. 

I've already checked out this season.  Canceled my MLB.tv subscription.  Definitely not going to ST.  And, I def won't be found at Target Field.

By the way, don't expect Lopez to be the last injury of the season.  And expect more sell-offs on August 3rd.  

Its gonna be a long, losing summer at 1 Twins Way.  The Twins will be lucky to win 70 games.  Sure, some of the young kids

It will take some years to turn this around.  We can dream about miracles, but then that freezing reality smacks you across the face.  

[dxpavelka]

Six months ago there were two things the fan base was certain of:  This team would not compete in 2026 and one or both of our top starters would be traded.  Such a trade would almost certainly NOT bring a return ready to contribute in 2026.  So, essentially, in terms of 2026, nothing has changed.  We won't have one of our top two starters, as was expected six months ago, and we will have no 2026 return for him.  The only significant change is that a couple of handfuls of highly touted kids will get a chance to pitch.  Maybe the sky is not falling.

[Twinsrtheworst]

8 hours ago, JADBP said:

Nope.  At some point, you just have to accept reality that is about to smack you in the face like a 2ft snowfall followed by days of temperatures preceded by a minus sign. 

I've already checked out this season.  Canceled my MLB.tv subscription.  Definitely not going to ST.  And, I def won't be found at Target Field.

By the way, don't expect Lopez to be the last injury of the season.  And expect more sell-offs on August 3rd.  

Its gonna be a long, losing summer at 1 Twins Way.  The Twins will be lucky to win 70 games.  Sure, some of the young kids

It will take some years to turn this around.  We can dream about miracles, but then that freezing reality smacks you across the face.  

You must get smacked in the face…like a lot!  Only thing hitting my face is sunshine and an ocean breeze. But i see why you are so so bitter and hateful. Sounds like it sucks were you are, You mention it 4 times, do you smack yourself or just does it just happen to you? You do you, but stop leading with your face it’s not helping u. Anyways, why is it that you like to announce your inability to afford tickets, tb, or spring training?  I don’t need to know your issues.  So many Twins fans take weird pride in not being able to afford Twins tickets.  But, I will be thanking you and your irrelevant cohorts when the Twins relocate. 😁. We are not the same.