Twins Ace Pablo López Facing "Strong Likelihood" of Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

[LastOnePicked]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

But these next ones! Can't miss!!

You have a far better chance at a "hit" higher in the draft than lower. But I agree that none of it matters much without top-notch scouting and player development.

[twinstalker]

Twins are likely the dumbest team in the league.  He hurts his arm in September.  Did they even think about having an MRI then?  He lost five months, and that means he may be just starting to pitch games by the trade deadline 2027.  If he'd had an MRI, and if it had shown a tear or stretch (it might not have, but it probably would have with the forearm strain), they could have saved his full 2027 and had a trade chip if he pitched decently.  Twins don't seem to even consider that.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

All these past can't-miss minor leaguers, who form the core of the current team, missed.

But these next ones! Can't miss!!

Drafting and development have changed drastically in the past 6 years in the twins organization. We are just starting to see the fruits of the labor. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I feel so bad for Pablo. Rough

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

One of my least favorite features of Twins baseball over the last 20+ years has been our collective praise of the FO/ownership for just being "in on" the rumors for a big name player. I would love to let that end once and for all. 

In baseball, you either land a player or you don't. No need to issue participation trophies.

I agree. Just asking about someone doesn't mean you were IN on them.

From what rumor states, they were actually IN on him with a similar deal he signed, similar to the initial deal Correa signed. 3yrs with OUTS available. He got $35M per. The Twins just couldn't match that.

[smartfred]

I’m so happy Tom kicked Falvey to the curb so he couldn’t complete the rebuild because he was worried about ticket sales getting worse. 
 

Now the other MLB teams are assembled and the trade market is slim. We will be praying that Jeffers, Buxton, and Ryan are still alive at the trade deadline so they can be shipped off to a contender and we can assemble competitive team in 2028, one year later if he would allowed Falvey to do it this winter. 

 

[thelanges5]

9 hours ago, Patzky said:

Good video chat on YouTube re just that. Consensus is this makes a trade or significant FA signing far less likely, and actually makes Pablo less marketable after 2027,.

Maybe Twins sign him to a friendly extension after he comes back? Need more Pablo Days!

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Another reminder that there is never too much pitching.

[h2oface]

21.5 million unemployment pay. It could be worse for him. 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

they were actually IN on him with a similar deal he signed,

You're never actually IN on a player until they're on the roster. The Twins need to get away from this small dog baseball mindset. We fans can help them by not tolerating these kinds of publicity spins.

[Chembry]

3 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Twins are likely the dumbest team in the league.  He hurts his arm in September.  Did they even think about having an MRI then?  He lost five months, and that means he may be just starting to pitch games by the trade deadline 2027.  If he'd had an MRI, and if it had shown a tear or stretch (it might not have, but it probably would have with the forearm strain), they could have saved his full 2027 and had a trade chip if he pitched decently.  Twins don't seem to even consider that.

Pablo had a MRI last September after his forearm strain.  It came back clean, i.e. no tear in the UCL…this was stated last September and reiterated today.

[Chembry]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I agree. Just asking about someone doesn't mean you were IN on them.

From what rumor states, they were actually IN on him with a similar deal he signed, similar to the initial deal Correa signed. 3yrs with OUTS available. He got $35M per. The Twins just couldn't match that.

I heard the same thing.  From Gleeman, the offer was competitive enough that the Twins thought they had ~20% chance at landing Framber. That’s not just “checking in”.

[UK Twin]

14 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Trading Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers now would be stupid. Teams have their rosters set  and once you trade one you lose all leverage. The best move would be to sign someone like Giolito and still try to compete, then sell at the deadline (including Giolito) in the likely event that you don't.

This. Chances are Giolito will take a 1 year deal (or 2 with a mutual option) at this stage of the offseason. Twins have the financial flexibility to make this move - just do it!

[Patzky]

8 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Maybe Twins sign him to a friendly extension after he comes back? Need more Pablo Days!

I could see it happening.. and I'd be ok with it.

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, Chembry said:

Pablo had a MRI last September after his forearm strain.  It came back clean, i.e. no tear in the UCL…this was stated last September and reiterated today.

Some fans are just.. fatalistic. Not that it's not been earned. However there was no mistake made here. 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

All these past can't-miss minor leaguers, who form the core of the current team, missed.

But these next ones! Can't miss!!

What are our alternatives?  We could spend an additional $40M.  That would be worth 3 wins.  I doubt that propels us into greatness.  We could trade away a bunch of prospects to fill our many holes.  Is that what we see from successful mid-market teams.  Not even a little.  I would vote that the organization focus on getting better and the strategies and practices that have been responsible for the success of teams like Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa.  Avoiding proven strategies because we have not executed them well would be the height of incompetence.  

[laloesch]

Game over.  Time to trade Ryan and go all in on the rebuild.

[laloesch]

15 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

God willing, you have many seasons left to enjoy. I would so much rather see this team actually build a first-class farm system and be a legitimate contender in 2028-30 than to be a perennial AL Central nibbler. 

Nothing is as enjoyable as true playoff run. Nothing.

aside from worshipping a fantasy god in the sky, I agree.  The Twins would be much better off rebuilding completely and stop trying to patch this sinking ship together.  It's time to trade Jeffers, Ryan, and Buxton, not wait for more of them to be injured.

[LastOnePicked]

28 minutes ago, laloesch said:

t's time to trade Jeffers, Ryan, and Buxton, not wait for more of them to be injured.

Unless there are major ST injuries for teams expected to compete, that time already passed, sadly. They would just be panic-selling at this point, and they wouldn't get back much in value ... or much respect from the league. No, they made their bed this offseason with their inability to make hard choices. Now they have to lie in it, and make even harder choices.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, UK Twin said:

This. Chances are Giolito will take a 1 year deal (or 2 with a mutual option) at this stage of the offseason. Twins have the financial flexibility to make this move - just do it!

To me, my opinion, Giolito is as fragile or more-so than Pablo after missing all of ‘24. His health history, from memory, isn’t great either. …….. I looked and prior to ‘24 he WAS pretty durable…….4.30 career ERA though.

Zack Littell for 2 years at $18-$21M total is probably realistic. He threw 186 innings in ‘26. His career ERA is 3.88 ……… Pablo’s career ERA is 3.81. Not even remotely trying to say Littell is as effective as Lopez but facts are facts. ……..to me, he’s a better value than Giolito as the same money gets 2 years of Littell v. one of Giolito.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Tom P. continues to double down on the Valdez and contention talk. Pablo's injury is a fork in the road for the Twins and Tom's narrative. Maybe he can now justify a full-blown rebuild - 'well, our ace is out for the season and we don't see a path to winning baseball without him', or, maybe he tries to slap some lipstick on this pig and pursues someone like Giolito in the name of making a move for the sake of it.

 

[Chembry]

11 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

You're never actually IN on a player until they're on the roster. The Twins need to get away from this small dog baseball mindset. We fans can help them by not tolerating these kinds of publicity spins.

I understand what you are trying to say, but I don't agree with that mindset in general.  I work in Pharma. Just like most other industries, it's a small community of people who all know each other, or at least know someone who knows that person.  

When a small company goes under or is acquired, many people are let go and looking for jobs.  I was in that situation several years ago.  Long story short, I interviewed for about 4 positions and in the end got 3 offers. 

Obviously, I chose one offer and turned down the other 2.  Does that mean that the other companies weren't in?  No, each opportunity was weighed individually.  Were the offers a publicity stunt on their behalf?  No, each had their own merit, because each offer was different, not only in salary, but other benefits (PTO, bonuses, deferred compensation (stocks), working equipment, incentives, etc...).  In the end I chose the opportunity that was best for me, my family, and my career goals.

That isn't dissimilar to the MLB free agent market.  When a team makes an offer, it's an offer of employment and a team wouldn't make an offer if they weren't ready to accept that salary.  In my opinion, they don't do it as a publicity stunt to potentially upset a potential employee.  If they do that, they erode reputation with agents, players, etc...which hurts their chances for other MLB free agents that are represented by the same agency or other players.  

Coming full circle, I know what companies in Pharma treat their employees well, pay well, have a positive work environment, etc...I know that because as I said, Pharma is a small world many of us keep in contact.  Same logic can be applied here.  MLB players/agents talk and know quite a bit about each organization, each GM, each POBO, how they treat players, etc...

In most of these cases, it's a catch 22 situation.  If a free agent signs elsewhere and the team or reporters say nothing, their fans get upset saying they aren't trying, why aren't they trying to improve...  If a free agent signs elsewhere and the team/reporters say team XX was "in" on said free agent, now fans get upset and say it's a publicity stunt to improve fan morale, the offer was terrible...What would you do in that situation?  

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, howeda7 said:

New revenue/ownership that allows the Twins to return payrolls to the $150-$160 million range and a new CBA that makes teams in that range competitive and ends $450 million payrolls at the top.

The Twins only chance is for MLB to change the rules to discourage the big revenue teams from making big revenues? That's not going to happen. They might have a chance at some reform if it is tied to expansion, but MLB does better when the Dodgers and Yankees win.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Maybe Twins sign him to a friendly extension after he comes back? Need more Pablo Days!

I'm sure they can get Pablo to come back when he's washed up and the rest of the league isn't interested anymore, just like they did with Taylor Rogers.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Chembry said:

If a free agent signs elsewhere and the team or reporters say nothing, their fans get upset saying they aren't trying, why aren't they trying to improve.

There's our problem right there. I have zero interest in anything the Twins are doing to try to improve. I'm not an investor or a partner in the organization. I'm only interested in their actual improvement.

Imagine eating at a terrible restaurant, and at the end of the meal the owner tells you all about the things they're trying to do to make the food better. For people they're bringing into the organization - cooks, investors, servers? Fine - let them in on your plans. For the customer, just make an excellent experience ... or shut up about it.

[USAFChief]

"Do or do not, there is no try."

-yoda

 

 

[The Great Hambino]

8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

There's our problem right there. I have zero interest in anything the Twins are doing to try to improve. I'm not an investor or a partner in the organization. I'm only interested in their actual improvement.

Imagine eating at a terrible restaurant, and at the end of the meal the owner tells you all about the things they're trying to do to make the food better. For people they're bringing into the organization - cooks, investors, servers? Fine - let them in on your plans. For the customer, just make an excellent experience ... or shut up about it.

It's also just an unsubstantiated claim made by the owner.  We don't know what was actually offered, if anything.  Just his claim that "we totally thought we had a 20% chance".  Well I think there's an 87.625% chance he pulled that number out of thin air.

There are no silver medals in free agent acquisition.  If you're actually serious about getting him, you immediately pivot to your next option if it doesn't work out.  It was Feb 4 when Valdez's signing was first reported.  I'm sure they're TOTALLY IN ON plan B

[howeda7]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins only chance is for MLB to change the rules to discourage the big revenue teams from making big revenues? That's not going to happen. They might have a chance at some reform if it is tied to expansion, but MLB does better when the Dodgers and Yankees win.

That isn't what I said. The new CBA  has to have a salary cap, as every other league does.

[howeda7]

21 hours ago, mark sills said:

I'm guessing with the insurance money we should sign a better shortstop

Have you taken a gander at the list of unsigned shortstops? It's Tim Anderson. End of list.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

That isn't what I said. The new CBA  has to have a salary cap, as every other league does.

A salary cap without changes to revenue sharing is pointless. Changes to revenue sharing are needed.