smartfred

I’m so happy Tom kicked Falvey to the curb so he couldn’t complete the rebuild because he was worried about ticket sales getting worse. Now the other MLB teams are assembled and the trade market is slim. We will be praying that Jeffers, Buxton, and Ryan are still alive at the trade deadline so they can be shipped off to a contender and we can assemble competitive team in 2028, one year later if he would allowed Falvey to do it this winter.

I am not opposed to this.

Not likely I agree with you. Falvey was high on Joe Ryan before the Nelson Cruz trade and tried to obtain him previously due to his arm slot and comments made by Twins AAA hitters finding it difficult to hit against. I can't seem to find a source indicating Tampa Bay approached the Twins with the offer. I find the timing of him leaving interesting. Spring Training is right around the corner and the off-season is ending. Why let him hang around for so long? The timing right after one of the only significant trades that resembles something the Twins could have done is interesting.

My thoughts of what happened which is not factual and just a hunch but the only thing that makes sense. Most likely happened over a week ago. Derek: Hey Tom, it looks like the Twins are due for a mediocre season since we only signed 2 replacement level players this off-season and our bullpen still has grand canyon type holes. We have an offer on the table for Joe Ryan that involves Carson Benge and Brandon Sproat which are both top 100 guys and I think we should do it and go big for 2027. Tom: Our attendance is already at an all-time low. Trading another fan favorite will not sit well with our season ticket holders. Our new minority owners aren't going to like another season in the red. Derek: With the resources you've cut from me, the only chance we have is to build a team through development since we aren't going after FA's that are difference makers. I'm trying to mirror what the Brewers, Marlins, and Rays are doing because they are able to put together winning teams with less budget. Tom: Being "just good enough" will keep the cash flow moving, and with any luck we'll make the playoffs every once in awhile. We need to keep the Twins looking like an attractive investment at all times to possible buyers. Derek: I think we are moving in different directions. I want to find ways to win, however you're handcuffing me from the business side. This is not something I signed up for. Tom: You know what, you're right. Lets call it a good 9 years and peace out.

Mother father you’re right. Not sure how I missed that.

Springer changed his approach to increase his bat speed especially earlier in counts. He increased his attack angle to hit more balls in the air so he's hitting for more power and a better launch angle. It's hard to believe with such an outstanding career that he's never hit balls harder than he has until this season (+90 mph exit velo) and he's 35. He swings at better pitches in the zone which sounds pretty basic but it's been a mentality passed around the Toronto lineup and you can see it not just in him but all around. It just makes me wonder if Popkins was leading the. charge in Toronto, what prevented him from doing this in MN? Was it stubborn players or was it a front office not rallying behind him?

You are correct and I should have been more clear. I was referring to their starting positional lineup payroll. Schneider - $780k Guerrero Jr. - $28.5M Bichette - $17.5M Kirk - $4.6M Varsho - $8.2M Clement - $2M Barger - $710k IKF - $1.1M Gimenez - $10.6M

Falvey mentioned it a few times that the performance on the field didn’t match the projections they had to begin the year. I would assume the front office assembles a team and projects the season and it’s up to the manager to reach those projections using the assets you have. This isn’t just in the MLB this is every business from small to enormous. Injuries are a weak excuse because especially in today’s game on average, teams use 14 SP’s during the season (using 2025 data), so if you’re expecting to break camp with 5 guys that will be there the whole season you’re out of your mind. Once you add positional players in the mix, you’ll have completely different teams. Rocco failed to get the best out of his players for multiple seasons and that’s where I have the problem. Mid-low budget teams rely on development to be competitive and missing on MLB talent consistently you failed at your job. Julian, Lee, Waller, Miranda, and too many others to list. In my opinion, now that Falvey has a new manager and he sold off the team to rebuild, this is where he comes to the chopping block. He’s already blamed failure on his managers and players so now he’s the common piece in everything. He selected another manager of his choosing along with trading all of the Twins assets for players of his choosing. If the team fails to build a contender in the next 3 seasons, this is on him and he should be done. Im not happy with the owners because they built a new stadium with the promise of spending money on payroll by hiking up taxes. They are clearly not doing this and I don’t like being lied to and better yet paying for someone else’s lies.

I find it interesting the Twins parted ways with David Popkins. To me it appears they needed a fall guy for the 2024 season and he was it. He moved to the Blue Jays and turned around a small-er budget offense that produced the most hits in the MLB and helped unheard of players hit well beyond what was expected (Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and even George Springer). The players give him credit and the changes can be measured by the increase in bat speed from a handful of players on statcast. To me it appears as an organization the team doesn’t have a culture of buy-in from players to change their approach and it’s sad to see players like Julian, Miranda, Lee, Waller, Larnach, Kirloff and others not hit their ceiling. There’s something going on behind the development scene that needs an investigative reporter to break some news and the Twins need development to win since they obviously can’t afford to pay for it.

Lolz. This is one of the better ones. Nice work!

I appreciate the response. Buxton is 31 years old. He remains in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. In the next few years he will be in the tail end of his prime and there is a possibility of being surrounded by a good core of players. He's young enough to make a difference with the up and coming core of players. I didn't feel it was necessary to add in the record of the last few seasons. Those teams were above average. In order to be a serious contender, you need to be at about 95 wins. (Twins were at 87). Now there are always exceptions like the 2023 Diamondbacks in recent memory (they still lost in the world series), however you need a stroke of good luck to have your dice roll in a favorable position and make it that far. The Twins won a playoff series which was great! Once they were up against Houston however we certainly saw how good of a team they were. The last time the Twins were serious contenders for a World Series was 2019 with the bomba squad. Guess who assembled the team? Well Mr. Falvey did! Not only did he assemble the team he did it without breaking the bank. CJ Cron, Johnathan Schoop, Mitch Garver, Polanco, Rosario, and lets not forget our highest paid player Nelson Cruz. Of the 9 hitters that contributed the most, 6 of them were homegrown (because it's cheaper). In the next 1-2 years the Twins now have the opportunity to do this again. Buxton, Keaschall, Culpepper, Wallner, Roden, Jenkins, Buxton, Tait, Gonzalez, Houston and that's 10!!! You add a couple more pieces through FA like in 2019 now you're really cooking with gas! You can do the same with the pitching rotation however I'm running out of steam for a short response. I'm sorry that everyone is upset, however it is time to turn your frowns the other way around. We now have a window of opportunity coming for the Twins to compete for a championship thanks to this trade deadline. We won't be limping into the playoffs and capitalizing on a weak AL Central.

I’ve been disappointed with a lot of the comments on Twins Daily lately. I usually come here to read thoughtful takes from loyal fans, not the Facebook-style hot takes where every single problem gets pinned on the Pohlads or Falvey. Lately it feels like the conversation is just piling on, and people are missing how smart the trade deadline really was. Are the Twins closer to a World Series after the trade deadline sell off? Without a doubt they are! The last few years the Twins were good enough to "limp" into the playoffs. Is that what Twins Territory wants? An early exit? An embarrassing defeat to the Yankees or Houston again? The same fans would be complaining on how the Twins are terrible despite making the playoffs. The Twins don't have bottomless pockets! They currently rank 22nd in revenue in the MLB. They spend on their payroll 20th. The Twins are overspending! Chill out! The Pohlads might have money, however why would we expect them to fork over their personal assets for our amusement. How many owners currently do that? How many of you all go to the arcade and start dishing out your personal cash so strangers can have fun? Bullpens are replaceable. A reliever might pitch 70 innings a year—that’s less than 3% of a team’s innings. Just look at the Rays: they’ve built playoff bullpens for years out of waiver claims, minor-league deals, and failed starters. The Marlins are already copying that model under the Rays’ old GM, and it’s working. Relievers are volatile too roughly half of the relievers who post an ERA under 3.50 in one season fail to repeat it the next year. The Twins’ own best guys (Durán, Jax, Varland) all came from this exact approach. Odds are the next late-inning group is already on the roster. This is about building a real contender, not sneaking in. The last few years we limped into October only to get bounced right away. Is that really what we want again? I’d rather see the team reset now and aim for real playoff runs in 2026–27 instead of wasting time pretending this roster could win it all. And don’t forget the young talent: Lewis, Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, plus a strong rotation core with our deadline aquisitions. That’s a foundation a lot of teams would kill for. If even a couple bats take a step forward, this gets exciting fast.

It's definitely not the "worst" offensive statistic in baseball. Top Teams in BA for 2023 for winning percentage - Texas .274 - Ranked 4th in MLB for winning percentage - Atlanta - .274 Ranked 1st in MLB for winning percentage - Miami - .264 Ranked 5th in MLB for winning percentage - Tampa Bay - .262 Ranked 2nd in MLB for winning percentage Seems like the correlation between wins and BA is higher than 0.

It's cool to see the comments on this article are all positive comments wishing him well. It seems like Twins fans like to blame the front office in times like these.

Just a friendly reminder... 2021 high end pitcher signings; Bauer: 1.8 WAR @ $34 million Morton: 4.6 WAR @ $15 million Everyone else signed high-end accepted qualifying offers. Thank goodness the Twins avoided that. 2021 Mid-tier Signings Smyly: .4 WAR @ $11 million Kluber: 1.5 WAR @ $11 million Richards: 1 WAR @ $10 million Minor: 2.3 WAR @ $9 Million Paxton: 0 WAR @ $8.5 million Odorizzi: 1.1 WAR @ $8.5 million Wainwright: 3.8 WAR @ $8 million Happ: .5 WAR @ $8 million Quintana: .3 WAR @ $8 million Ray: 3.9 WAR @ $8 million Walker: 1.4 WAR @ $7.64 million 2021 Low End Starters 21 Starters signed between $2 million - $7 million (Shomaker was signed at $2) Notabler signings DeSclafani 3.2 WAR Wood 2.5 WAR Rodon 4.9 WAR Wacha 1.1 WAR Tyler Anderson 2.5 WAR Hill 1.7 WAR Williams 1.2 WAR Flexen 3.0 WAR The point I'm trying to make Everyone keeps saying, "Sign big name pitchers because the Twins need a #1 or #2 starter" and every year, a large percentage of high end pitchers don't live up to their expectations/get hurt/get into trouble. The payoff doesn't make sense for a team like the Twins. Mid tier teams find their #1 and #2's by trading or growing them. Of the top 30 SP in 2021, only 5 of them were signed as a FA. The chance of signing a game changing SP is pretty low. Of those 5 that ended up in the top 30, 2 of them were signed in the low tier. Flexen, Desclafani, and 2 were the mid tier, Ray and Wainwright. The Twins did the right thing in gambling on players from each tier, they just gambled wrong. I find the article interesting. It seems like a decent gamble going for Bundy looking at the stats and won't break the bank.

To me it looks like the perfect contract. $15 million a year with incentives is win-win for both parties. Starling Marte whom is a dude with injury questions and age regression, signed for $19.4 million a year x 4. Buxton could be the best player in the MLB, Marte most likely won't. Even if Buxton busts, $15 million won't kill the Twins payroll. Nice work Twins front office.

2020 FA Class Stephen Strasburg - 0 WAR over the last 2 seasons and probably headed for more ($245 million) Hyun Jin Ryu - 4.3 WAR over 2 season and $40 million = $9.3 million/ WAR with 2 years remaining and a 75% chance (due to injury) that 1 of the remaining 2 years will be lost. Zack Wheeler - 8.4 WAR over the last 2 season and cost $47 million which is $5.5 million per WAR. He has 2 years left so that's still a 75% chance that he will miss significant time due to injury. All 3 guys would take up 20-30% of our payroll if we signed them to their current contract which would have been more if we a part of the bidding. Yikes that's a lot. 4 seasons to gamble on 1 player is a really tough thing to do. If it doesn't work out or Tommy John surgery knocks him out for half of his contract, Ouch. If anything, it now makes even more sense why low market teams should continue to go after mid to low salary guys and hope they pull a Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman out of their hat. Happ IMO was a good gamble since he pitched in Yankee Stadium and still had good numbers despite giving up lots of long balls. Moving to a pitcher friendly ballpark could have really been a sneaky great season for him but as we all know, it didn't work out. At least Gant is looking good! Making the playoffs is the ultimate goal according to analytics. The sample size of a 1 game Wildcard or 7 game series is small enough that a weaker opponent still has a decent chance to win. (Yes... what's happened to the Twins in playoffs is extremely unlucky). I don't understand the gap you're referring to as winning the WS every year versus not going to the WS in 30 years. It's to be expected that the Dodgers, Yankees, and other large market teams will make it. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics on what they've been able to do as far as making the playoffs versus their divisional rivals. Boston and New York should never not make the playoffs with their salary and with how much the Angels spend, they should dominate teams like the Athletics. Also, where is the ace that's on the A's or Rays? Rays don't have one! A's don't have one! I really like your post though, it's a great conversation to have with fellow Twins fans!

The problem I have with your list list is that you're cherry picking players that are fitting your narrative. For example... 2021 FA Class of High End Starters Trevor Bauer - WAR - 1.7 @ 3 years for $34 million = $20 million/WAR Charlie Morton - WAR - 3.6 @ 1 year for $15 million = $4.15 million/WAR Kevin Gausman - WAR - 4.2 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $4.5 million/WAR Marcus Stroman - WAR - 3.1 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $6.1 million/ WAR That's it for higher end SP's for 2021 The middle guys Corey Kluber - WAR - 1 @ 1 year for $11 million = $11 million / WAR Mike Minor - WAR - 2 @ 2 years for $18 million = $2.25 million / WAR James Paxton - WAR - 0 @ 1 year for $8.5 million = INF / WAR Robbie Ray - WAR - 3.7 @ 1 year for $8 million = $2.16 million / WAR Drew Smyly - WAR - .2 @ 1 year for $11 million = $55 million / WAR The Twins Picks J.A. Happ - WAR 0 @ $8 million Matt Shoemaker - .7 WAR @ $2 million The Twins have had 15 different starting pitchers in 2021. Less than 60% of SP's in the rotation will end the year with 30 starts. This means the Twins need at least 10 - 15 starting pitcher. I don't see any logic why the Twins FO will sign a SP that will cost 15-25% of the payroll and only has a 50-60% chance to make it through the entire season. We could have signed 2 mid tier pitchers and gambled on their success, or do what the Twins did and signed 1 mid tier pitcher and 1 low end pitcher and roll the dice. Unfortunately the dice roll didn't end up. The Twins Plan That Didn't Work Sign elite defenders so mediocre pitchers have a better chance to thrive at Target Field Josh Donaldson Andrelton Simmons Buxton in CF Polonco is a + defender at 2B Keplar is a + defender in the OF Realistically the Twins made some good decisions, they just lost the dice roll. Sure beats being stuck with a lost season from; Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino and many others.... 25% of your payroll just thrown in the trash.... that would hurt... I like the Twins strategy better.

Those Bailey Ober splits look encouraging. Hopefully it continues. Nice find! If you add Ryan that gives you two SP's to start the season. If we've learned anything from the Twins the last few years, they are far more comfortable taking chances on 1 year rentals than long term deals. J.A. Happ, Shoemaker, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill to name the ones most recent. That means they will be shopping in the average/about to retire SP pile come FA time. It looks like there will be plenty to choose from. Twins will need to sign 3 starters and it looks like Charlie Morton would be the best case scenario however he'll probably resign with the Braves or go to a contender. Then it would be on the Twins to sign 3 of the following: Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Drew Smyly, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood, Martín Pérez All of the other FA SP that are available will most likely get multi-year deals which seems to be something the Twins don't seem willing to spend money on. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, just something that seems to be a trend from the Twins. My guess is the analytics team discovered something. The question will be, what depth will the Twins have when players start getting hurt. Griffin Jax, Dobnak (coming in from the pen) and Charlie Barnes could fill-in, however with the Twins using over 30 pitchers so far in 2021 that might not be enough. In AA the Twins have a little more depth with Balazovic, Sands, and Winder so maybe we'll see them sometime in 2022 once people start getting hurt. Lastly, if the Twins were to trade for someone, they clearly like a player that's under control for several more years. To get a player of this caliber, they would have to part with a high end prospect. This seems like something that they would never do especially for a team that is on the verge of finishing last place in the division.

Nelson Cruz was a good signing agreed. Genius in fact. Justin Turner, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana were all possible options These dudes all signed multi year deals. Santana has already been a flop, and Justin Turner and Michael Brantley run injury risks. Twins don't need more of that and to lure them alway from the Dodgers and Astros would have been a bidding war between two teams with a lot more money. Simmons was also a great signing. Yes I said it. Simmons was signed for his defense. His defensive WAR puts him as one of the best defensive SS's of all-time. If Simmons plays an elite SS, it allows the Twins to save money on pitching. The plan was clearly, Buxton in CF and Simmons at SS saving enough runs that you could throw mediocre pitchers out there and still get some results. Simmons defense has been good, but not legendary unfortunately. In hindsight this looks bad, however the Twins aren't stuck with him for 2-4 more years. Other options - Kolton Wong would have been cool, however moving Polonco to 2B has given Jorge his first season with a positive DRS (defensive runs saved). The true other option would have been Didi Gregorious. He signed a 2 year deal which is turning out to look bad for the Phillies because they are stuck with him another year. Based on the Twins options, Simmons was the best option after losing out on Semien. J.A. Happ is another good signing. Yes I hate to say it but it's true. J.A. Happ gave up 10 HRS in 2020 and if he was pitching in target field, only 6 of them would have gone out. He had an excellent track record previously and for an organization that badly needed starting rotation help, it's an easy gamble. Other options - Several, but not Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray had a disgusting 2020. 6.62 ERA with a 5.84 xFIP? You can't even say he was unlucky with those numbers, just bad. J.A. Happ was a much safer play and a better call. It didn't work out, however it's great to hear about Robbie's success. The dude certainly figured it out. Lets not forget, we received a couple of players for Happ that might help out the Twins next season so it's an easy win. RP Alex Colome very bad Alex Colome had a pretty cool 2.92 ERA in 2020 but since his xFIP was 4.53, any amateur could see that his success was lucky. The Twins didn't care and they signed him anyways and now his ERA matches his xFIP with a 4.26 ERA to an xFIP of 4.53. When this happened, I figured the Twins saw something to tweak with him, however he's remained steady on his fastball/cutter combo from previous years with not enough success. RP Hansel Robles ok. Robles also had a terrible 2020. It was easy to see why the Twins wanted to take a chance on him. He has electric stuff. What I'm surprised about is that they didn't try to "tweak" him in anyway. He's improved his GB% pretty significantly, however he's throwing all of his pitches pretty much the same from previous years. Other Options - For the price they signed Colome, it would have been good to see a few more chances being taken. I do like the Sergio Romo option, Just keep in mind this is hard to do. Brad Hand is pretty much out of the league. Keona Kela is out indefinitely, Matt Wisler would have been an amazing signing for the results he keeps getting. Anthony Bass was another one that I heard Twins groan about that we missed signing but that turned out good. Jake McGee would have been nice since he actually had a good track record. All in all, I'm disappointed in the Twins RP signings the most. However, it's a little bit of a crap shoot, however we could have taken chances on 3 different RP for the price we signed Colome to and that would have been a better use of the salary. Luckily, we aren't stuck with either of those guys after the season so at least that's the positive.