ZiPS Loves Kaelen Culpepper, and You Can, Too

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Kaelen Culpepper)

Projection systems are not in the business of hype. They are cold, calculating, and often conservative. That's what makes it so interesting when one of them plants a flag on a player who has barely cracked the upper minors. FanGraphs’s ZiPS has done exactly that with Kaelen Culpepper.

The Twins likely don’t agree with ZiPS's plan to promote him aggressively in 2026. It seems more likely that they'll roll with Brooks Lee at shortstop. But after a dynamite first full professional season, the Twins' 2024 first-rounder has quickly become one of the system’s favorites, and that's no accident.

A Massive Step Forward
Culpepper took a massive step forward last season, showing he can impact the game with his bat while sticking at shortstop. In 113 games, he posted a 138 wRC+ with 25 steals, flashing both on-base ability and speed. The organization named him its Minor League Player of the Year, and he enters 2026 as a consensus top-100 prospect.

ZiPS noticed. He was among MLB’s biggest ZiPS gainers for 2026, a list that includes Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. A year ago, he was projected for just 0.3 fWAR. Now he sits at 1.9 fWAR, were he to get a full year's worth of playing time. That's a substantial jump for a player who has yet to play at Triple-A. To reach that 1.9 fWAR mark, ZiPS projects Culpepper for 510 plate appearances in 2026. Obviously, that's essentially a default number, to give a sense of what a full season would look like from him. He's unlikely to play that much at Target Field this year. If he did, though, the model thinks he'd be perfectly serviceable.

The offensive line is modest on the surface. ZiPS projects a 94 wRC+ and a .376 slugging percentage, pointing to a lack of present power. But there is value baked in elsewhere. He's projected for a .305 wOBA, positive defensive value, and enough overall contribution to be an above-average regular.

His player comparisons are not superstar names: Bill Spiers. Howard Freigau. Ricky Adams. Those comps speak to versatility and steady value, more than flash. ZiPS isn't projecting stardom right now. It just shows promise, with room to grow. That's where it gets interesting.

The Defense Debate
The Twins front office believes Culpepper improved his overall outlook with defensive gains last season. That belief is reflected in the positive defensive projection.

“His makeup and his leadership on the field, the way he goes about his work, have all been exactly what we’ve been looking for,” Twins GM Jeremy Zoll said.

The arm strength is there. The internal reviews are strong. But not everyone is convinced he sticks at shortstop long term.

Baseball America’s JJ Cooper has expressed skepticism about Culpepper’s ability to remain at the position. While he has the arm, some evaluators question his range and actions. Many scouts believe he may ultimately slide to third base.

That positional uncertainty matters, because the offensive bar changes depending on where he plays. A 90 OPS+ with solid defense is more palatable at shortstop than at third base. ZiPS, at least for now, is betting that the glove will be good enough.

A Complicated Shortstop Picture
The Twins' shortstop depth chart adds another wrinkle. Lee is expected to open the season as the starter. The team added a veteran backup option, Orlando Arcia, to provide depth and stability. On paper, there is no everyday job available for Culpepper.

But depth charts have a way of unraveling. One injury to a significant player could change the equation quickly. If Lee misses time or struggles offensively, Culpepper could force the issue. Whether it's Lee, Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall, a major injury to any of the injury-prone infielders slated to start could crack the door for Culpepper. For that matter, Lee is projected for a lousy 84 wRC+ and worse defense than Culpepper, so if you ask ZiPS, the Twins should simply escalate the young player past the incumbent right now.

The Twins haven't been shy about promoting prospects who prove ready. Culpepper may not need much Triple-A seasoning. Minnesota saw this in 2025, with Luke Keaschall playing only 28 games at Triple-A before his promotion.

The Offensive Ceiling
Culpepper is not a finished product offensively. He can be prone to chasing off-speed pitches out of the zone. That approach will be tested at higher levels. But there were encouraging signs, too. He walked 50 times and struck out just 90 times, showing better swing decisions than some evaluators expected.

He also reached the 20-home run mark, despite posting the system’s third-highest groundball rate. That's significant. If he can learn to elevate consistently, there's more power in the profile than the current projections imply. That's part of why ZiPS is optimistic. The system sees a player who already produces value and has room to grow if the batted-ball profile improves.

Why You Can Love Him, Too
Culpepper profiles as an above-average regular with All-Star upside at an infield spot still to be determined. That kind of player doesn't need to be a franchise cornerstone to be immensely valuable. He's played just 139 minor-league games and has yet to face Triple-A pitching. On the surface, it might feel aggressive to expect a big-league debut this season.

It's not unrealistic, though. If Culpepper keeps hitting as he did in 2025, the Twins will have no choice but to give him a look at the major-league level. ZiPS already believes he can handle a near-everyday role. Now, it becomes a matter of timing.

Projection systems don't often fall in love. When they do, it's worth paying attention. ZiPS loves Culpepper. You probably should, too.

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Do you believe in the ZiPS projection for Culpepper? If not, what are realistic expectations for him in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[LewFordLives]

No one ever mentions Lewis in the shortstop discussions. It was his primary position in the minors and he never really had a chance to be the everyday SS in the majors. 

[Cris E]

Professional baseball is a game of adjustments, and well-balanced players lose less of their value while dealing with adjustments the league makes to them. He's not extreme in any one skill, which makes him less vulnerable to collapse if that part of his game gets countered. Which is to say he can run and leg out grounders AND hit HR and draw a walk and his BABIP is not .400 and he fields pretty well and so on. His value is not tied to a single skill. Julien (and ERod, to an alarming extent) watched a lot of pitches and drew a lot of walks, but when the pitches got slightly better and he was still taking them his entire approach collapsed. Bad ball hitters stop seeing as many hanging breaking pitches at the AAA and MLB levels, and some fastball guys never see another heater above AA once they prove they can hit them. I hope Kaelen keeps adjusting and advancing because it's fun to watch guys figure it out and bloom (like Keaschall did last year.)

[OregonTwinsFan]

Would love to see him have a big spring and break camp with the big club.

[KirbyDome89]

18 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

No one ever mentions Lewis in the shortstop discussions. It was his primary position in the minors and he never really had a chance to be the everyday SS in the majors. 

Idk if Lewis was ever truly tracking to be a viable starting MLB SS. After 2 ACL surgeries + other lingering lower body soft tissue injuries it's not happening. 

[FlyingFinn]

I think I'm the lone ranger in saying the Twins should start Culpepper at SS right away this year. The Twins aren't winning 80 games so let's play the young guys. It's not the end of the world if he struggles. Then, send him down to work on some things at AAA. So many people think if a player has a bad month to start their career, they will never make it. Many other clubs do this and their star young players turn out great.

[Linus]

Here’s hoping. I don’t care if he is not up for a little while. Do whatever is best for his development- we need him to pan out. 

[gman]

I'd like to see the Twins playing for 2028.  Actually I'd prefer to see them playing for the World Series, but that's not happening this year. Anyone that's less than a year away could be brought by the end of May. If that means we run a full time tryout camp with 4-5 more coaches, won't hurt my feelings.

[mikelink45]

If only projections were facts. 

[big dog]

I would very much like for zips to be right. He’s got to be the Pick That Clicks. 

[DocBauer]

He was recruited as a SS. He had a good, older player in front of him, so he played mostly 3B initially. And his junior season, he became his team's starting SS. When drafted, as a result, he had ONE college season as a starting SS. I think it's important to remember that in all discussions. By all reports, he played a very solid SS as a professional "rookie" in 2025. I'm sure there's room for development and improvement, but he's got a good arm, and is a good athlete.

POTENTIALLY, Houston is a DYNAMIC SS who's bat has to only be decent to be the Twins eventual starting SS. But that's a different discussion for a different day. What's important in the NOW discussion is his ability to continue to mature and be a solid, dependable ML SS, at least in the short term. I have yet to read where he CAN'T be that kind of defender.

And with all due respect and hope for Lee to improve this season...also with the bat...he's probably destined for a different spot in the INF, or being a competent super utility player for the Twins.

K-Pepper chases a bit too much, most young hitters do initially, but he's also shown the ability to take BB, not K to an extreme, and I'd be willing to bet his chase rate will decline somewhat in 2026.

My biggest concern is his ground ball rate. He's produced some really good offense, and power, while still fighting this issue. But it was also only his FIRST full season. Learning to not sell out, but LIFT the ball more often doesn't have to mean even more HR power...but it could...but rather more hard hit singles and more doubles where his speed comes in to play.

Here's hoping his defense continues to improve, he chases a little less, and he learns to elevate the ball just a little more. That's really not a lot to ask for a talented young kid who's already off to a great start. It's just the kind of development and maturation you'd expect from a talented young prospect.

With a little luck, the Twins will be healthy enough in 2026 that he won't be needed until around July so he'll get some solid AAA time to grow and produce for a few months. 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If only projections were facts. 

I think Zips was the one that projected 2 WAR for DaShawn Kiersey last year.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

No one ever mentions Lewis in the shortstop discussions. It was his primary position in the minors and he never really had a chance to be the everyday SS in the majors. 

I think all the knee injuries caused that ship to sail. He probably no longer has the lateral movement and 'twitch' necessary for the position.

[Cris E]

I would only promote a player as he earned it, not as the team wants or needs him to rise. Plenty of guys get moved too quickly and develop bad habits trying to cut corners to stay afloat. Honestly if you rushed him up you'd only be hoping for what Lee delivered last year, and that has to balanced against the chance that a rushed Culpepper is exposed and collapses (a la sophmore year Julien, Miranda, etc) and you have to go back to Lee again with no clear timeline on Culpepper's recovery.  

Now if Lee were seriously injured, then you could start wailing and gnashing teeth. But people here don't seem to recall the really bad years of starting SS Pedro Florimon, Andrelton Simmons or the magic 2012 pairing of Alexi Casilla and Brian Dosier at the keystone with matching 67 OPS+ It can easily be worse, much worse.

[Cris E]

Just now, arby58 said:

I think all the knee injuries caused that ship to sail. He probably no longer has the lateral movement and 'twitch' necessary for the position.

On top of which, plenty of folks around here blame management for dumping him in the outfield without proper preparation and causing that second knee injury. Dropping him in at short for six weeks and expecting above average things? Well let's just say if fails in any way I predict some fairly outraged hindsight from the folks that keep pushing this fantasy.  

BTW, Lee is expected to be a little better this year, and Fangraphs actually has him ahead of the DET, ATL and TAM shortstops. It's not great, but looking at Lee as a placeholder in light of Kim's injury in Atlanta shows that we're not nearly at the bottom of the barrel. 

[DarrenPS]

I am extremely hyped for KC and believe he will be a Twin for a long time. If he figures out the groundballs, the sky is the limit. Figuring out the chasing off speed would just be an added bonus. Not sure where he plays but he should be in the lineup 2027 (if there's a season) daily

That being said, I know a lot of people are going to hate this but Brooks Lee is my comeback player of the year prediction for the Twins. I hope his bat takes off to what it was always projected to be, and I think while he is slow he is more serviceable at SS than he is given credit for. It comes natural to him even if the speed & agility does not

[Fatbat]

KC clearly has the chops to be an above average MLB SS.  No one should be worried about his athleticism. He has only 2 recent seasons at the position so you have to expect that he will develop more this season. The difference maker is his approach to the game and his leadership skills. He has all of that which Lee and Lewis both seem to lack. KC probably shouldn’t and wont be the Twins opening day SS in ‘26 but if his growth continues, you have to expect him to be an MLB regular soon.  July 1, 26’ is a legitimate over/under betting date for the call up. 

[Whitey333]

I hope Culpepper is a hit.  It's always the same only the players names change.  The last wave of can't miss prospects have produced just 1 playoff team in the last 5 years.   Many have regressed and some have flopped and aren't here anymore.  Im sure Culpepper will be the next can't miss prospects we will see have a great major league career.  I really do hope he does great.  That's all the Twins have to sell to fans is hope and hype.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

No one ever mentions Lewis in the shortstop discussions. It was his primary position in the minors and he never really had a chance to be the everyday SS in the majors. 

Not happening after 2 knee reconstructions.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

He was recruited as a SS. He had a good, older player in front of him, so he played mostly 3B initially. And his junior season, he became his team's starting SS. When drafted, as a result, he had ONE college season as a starting SS. I think it's important to remember that in all discussions. By all reports, he played a very solid SS as a professional "rookie" in 2025. I'm sure there's room for development and improvement, but he's got a good arm, and is a good athlete.

POTENTIALLY, Houston is a DYNAMIC SS who's bat has to only be decent to be the Twins eventual starting SS. But that's a different discussion for a different day. What's important in the NOW discussion is his ability to continue to mature and be a solid, dependable ML SS, at least in the short term. I have yet to read where he CAN'T be that kind of defender.

And with all due respect and hope for Lee to improve this season...also with the bat...he's probably destined for a different spot in the INF, or being a competent super utility player for the Twins.

K-Pepper chases a bit too much, most young hitters do initially, but he's also shown the ability to take BB, not K to an extreme, and I'd be willing to bet his chase rate will decline somewhat in 2026.

My biggest concern is his ground ball rate. He's produced some really good offense, and power, while still fighting this issue. But it was also only his FIRST full season. Learning to not sell out, but LIFT the ball more often doesn't have to mean even more HR power...but it could...but rather more hard hit singles and more doubles where his speed comes in to play.

Here's hoping his defense continues to improve, he chases a little less, and he learns to elevate the ball just a little more. That's really not a lot to ask for a talented young kid who's already off to a great start. It's just the kind of development and maturation you'd expect from a talented young prospect.

With a little luck, the Twins will be healthy enough in 2026 that he won't be needed until around July so he'll get some solid AAA time to grow and produce for a few months. 

Agreed on Houston by ‘27 ……. outside sources have suggested the Twins eat the offensive downside in ‘26 and roll him out immediately for his glove.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Idk if Lewis was ever truly tracking to be a viable starting MLB SS. After 2 ACL surgeries + other lingering lower body soft tissue injuries it's not happening. 

I haven't seen much supporting these kinds of assumptions, but they certainly seem widespread. As if SS is way less stressful than 2B or 3B. Same motions, just literally a couple fewer plays a game.

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I haven't seen much supporting these kinds of assumptions, but they certainly seem widespread. As if SS is way less stressful than 2B or 3B. Same motions, just literally a couple fewer plays a game.

Why do guys, that age over years at SS and lose mobility, get moved to 3B routinely? How many times do guys at 3B range 5 steps to their right (ever)  and then pick up the ball to make the throw? ……… off a bad plant leg? Distance of throw and quickness needed, once one has the ball, are not nearly as difficult from 2B.

Carlos Correa - lost mobility ……now at 3B.

Royce Lewis - knee surgeries - lost mobility…… now at 3B.

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I think I'm the lone ranger in saying the Twins should start Culpepper at SS right away this year. The Twins aren't winning 80 games so let's play the young guys. It's not the end of the world if he struggles. Then, send him down to work on some things at AAA. So many people think if a player has a bad month to start their career, they will never make it. Many other clubs do this and their star young players turn out great.

I agree that if KC has an excellent spring, it would be interesting to make him the Twins SS.  They can send him down if it's too soon.  I'd like to see the same with a couple of our Outfielders, especially GG.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I haven't seen much supporting these kinds of assumptions, but they certainly seem widespread. As if SS is way less stressful than 2B or 3B. Same motions, just literally a couple fewer plays a game.

Ninja'd by JD, but is SS not higher in the defensive hierarchy? Is it not far more common for guys to move off SS and into either of the other 2 positions than vice versa?

[bean5302]

30 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Ninja'd by JD, but is SS not higher in the defensive hierarchy? Is it not far more common for guys to move off SS and into either of the other 2 positions than vice versa?

Oh SS is definitely more demanding from a physical skills standpoint. It's the injury bug thing I was talking about. There seems to be an idea players will magically be healthier if they switch to positions which require a lesser physical skillset to be an "effective" defender. 3B gets a couple fewer plays a game than SS, but the player doesn't need the speed as much. 2B gets more than SS, but the arm doesn't have to be involved, and accuracy can be way lower since the distance is so much closer. It's way HARDER to be a good shortstop than 2B or 3B because you need to be quick, fast AND have a strong arm an accurate throwing. 3B drops off the speed requirement, 2B drops off the arm requirements.

Shortstop is reserved for the most physically gifted athelete on teams, generally. Even more so than catchers, but catchers require a lot of unique skills and insane leg endurance.

That said, the player is going to use their skills at whatever position they play, and every position in the infield or outfield requires running, diving, throwing, etc.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why do guys, that age over years at SS and lose mobility, get moved to 3B routinely? How many times do guys at 3B range 5 steps to their right (ever)  and then pick up the ball to make the throw? ……… off a bad plant leg? Distance of throw and quickness needed, once one has the ball, are not nearly as difficult from 2B.

Carlos Correa - lost mobility ……now at 3B.

Royce Lewis - knee surgeries - lost mobility…… now at 3B.

Royce Lewis' speed started to show substantial improvement later in the year. Even beat up, Lewis is substantially faster than Brooks Lee, has a stronger arm than Lee as well. Lee might not be able to outrun prime Chris Parmelee ('ol tree trunks)

[KirbyDome89]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh SS is definitely more demanding from a physical skills standpoint. It's the injury bug thing I was talking about. There seems to be an idea players will magically be healthier if they switch to positions which require a lesser physical skillset to be an "effective" defender. 3B gets a couple fewer plays a game than SS, but the player doesn't need the speed as much. 2B gets more than SS, but the arm doesn't have to be involved, and accuracy can be way lower since the distance is so much closer. It's way HARDER to be a good shortstop than 2B or 3B because you need to be quick, fast AND have a strong arm an accurate throwing. 3B drops off the speed requirement, 2B drops off the arm requirements.

Shortstop is reserved for the most physically gifted athelete on teams, generally. Even more so than catchers, but catchers require a lot of unique skills and insane leg endurance.

That said, the player is going to use their skills at whatever position they play, and every position in the infield or outfield requires running, diving, throwing, etc.

Yeah I agree I think the difference in physical impact is pretty minimal in the grand scheme. I was speaking to his ability to play the SS position. If I remember correctly, Lewis moving off SS was a topic being discussed at his peak athleticism. I know there were questions about his release and at one point he was struggling to pick the ball cleanly. Maybe the errors were SSS noise and the throwing has been resolved (although he did look clunky at times last year) but I have to assume multiple knee surgeries took a toll on those physical gifts you mentioned. His sprint and throwing data aren't all that impressive, granted it's not necessarily apples to apples if we're talking about ranging into the hole to make a play. 

 

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah I agree I think the difference in physical impact is pretty minimal in the grand scheme. I was speaking to his ability to play the SS position. If I remember correctly, Lewis moving off SS was a topic being discussed at his peak athleticism. I know there were questions about his release and at one point he was struggling to pick the ball cleanly. Maybe the errors were SSS noise and the throwing has been resolved (although he did look clunky at times last year) but I have to assume multiple knee surgeries took a toll on those physical gifts you mentioned. His sprint and throwing data aren't all that impressive, granted it's not necessarily apples to apples if we're talking about ranging into the hole to make a play. 

 

Lewis was told in 2021-2022 offseason he was going to be the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Then the Twins unexpectedly signed Correa. Of course, Lewis wound up pushed off SS due to obvious rank behind Carlos Correa. Lewis was moved to CF to cover for Buxton, which worked out splendidly for all involved after Lewis met the CF wall with his not quite fully recovered knee.

Lewis was again expected to be the starting shortstop for the Twins in 2023, but the Twins again unexpectedly brought back Carlos Correa. Lewis showed some defensive struggles in his 3rd Base play time after that relating to his throwing accuracy.

In 2024, Lewis' continued defensive struggles with throwing after he loss of the first few months to a quad strain saw Baldelli bury Lewis in the depth charts behind Correa and the more polished, though less capable Brooks Lee. Lewis remained at 3rd, but was told he was going to be used at 2B to shorten up the throwing distance. That obviously went well.

In 2025, Lewis showed a lot of progress at 3rd base and had a relatively healthy season for a change, but I don't know as he has the skills to play SS at this point, but his physical skill set should be substantially better than any other player who could potentially play SS who is also expected to be on the Twins' 26 man roster to open the season. So... maybe he could, maybe he couldn't?

I KNOW Brooks Lee didn't have the skills to cover it, and it would be a major stretch to believe he would ever get fast or get a strong arm.

[KirbyDome89]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lewis was told in 2021-2022 offseason he was going to be the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Then the Twins unexpectedly signed Correa. Of course, Lewis wound up pushed off SS due to obvious rank behind Carlos Correa. Lewis was moved to CF to cover for Buxton, which worked out splendidly for all involved after Lewis met the CF wall with his not quite fully recovered knee.

Lewis was again expected to be the starting shortstop for the Twins in 2023, but the Twins again unexpectedly brought back Carlos Correa. Lewis showed some defensive struggles in his 3rd Base play time after that relating to his throwing accuracy.

In 2024, Lewis' continued defensive struggles with throwing after he loss of the first few months to a quad strain saw Baldelli bury Lewis in the depth charts behind Correa and the more polished, though less capable Brooks Lee. Lewis remained at 3rd, but was told he was going to be used at 2B to shorten up the throwing distance. That obviously went well.

In 2025, Lewis showed a lot of progress at 3rd base and had a relatively healthy season for a change, but I don't know as he has the skills to play SS at this point, but his physical skill set should be substantially better than any other player who could potentially play SS who is also expected to be on the Twins' 26 man roster to open the season. So... maybe he could, maybe he couldn't?

I KNOW Brooks Lee didn't have the skills to cover it, and it would be a major stretch to believe he would ever get fast or get a strong arm.

This was all I was saying, plus I do believe his ability to stick at SS was in question (not at all uncommon) prior to the physical erosion. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

9 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I agree that if KC has an excellent spring, it would be interesting to make him the Twins SS.  They can send him down if it's too soon.  I'd like to see the same with a couple of our Outfielders, especially GG.

It might be interesting, but it will not happen unless Brooks sustains an injury. They will not rush Culpepper to the majors, regardless of what many people might like.