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Posted

If Bell hits 20-25HRs and knocks in 70-80 RBI.  His signing would be a success at a cost of 7 million.  He is not here to single handedly save the team.  He does need to play a fair number of games at 1B with as close to average defense as possible.  I'm sure he will get plenty of games at DH too.  

Posted
Quote

While Bell's raw numbers for 2025 might appear underwhelming,

That is an understatement.

Does this really make us better or are we back to the Gallo mode? 

I am not buying the statement that his bat speed is increasing.  Let's see.

And a good clubhouse guy is your bench coach not your 1B

How much did we improve?  Cody Clemens 213/281/434 Josh Bell 237/325/417 are you whelmed or underwhelmed?  Clemens 19 HR in 348 AB - Bell 22 in 468

Clemens 1 WAR Bell 0.4 WAR

Like I asked - does this make us better?

Posted

My biggest issue with this signing is based on what we've heard about our budget - we just spent nearly 1/3 of what was available & there isn't much incremental gain...

- Clemens OPS'd .782 vs RHP & shouldn't be used vs LHP - is a good defensive 1B

- Bell OPS'd .804 vs RHP & .552 vs LHP - he's been more balanced in his career & maybe he gets back to that - is a poor defensive 1B

So maybe there thinking use him as a DH vs RHP & 1B vs LHP

- Larnach OPS'd .759 vs RHP & .608 vs LHP so Larnach sits vs RHP???

So maybe they trade Larnach for whatever we can get which may make sense except Larnach is expected to make less than 5M & we're paying Bell 7M.

With all of that said the two biggest issues for this team in 2026 remain - Bullpen & SS. 

We've spent 1/3 of what seems to be our budget, created more questions & failed to address the two areas most in need of help. 

 

 

Posted
35 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If Bell hits 20-25HRs and knocks in 70-80 RBI.  His signing would be a success at a cost of 7 million.  He is not here to single handedly save the team.  He does need to play a fair number of games at 1B with as close to average defense as possible.  I'm sure he will get plenty of games at DH too.  

We need to get beyond the idea of "success at a cost of 7 million." Ty France was a "success at the cost of 1 million," but he didn't help the team win baseball games. They don't give out division titles or World Series births for getting the best deals. You have to have real, actual, above average talent to do that. Teams in the Twins tax bracket need to get their "success at a cost..." production from league minimum guys, preferably with options left. If the Twins are spending $7 million on a free agent, they need much more than a good deal, they need real, above average production.

Bell has never been "close to average" on defense. He's awful. If they plan to play him regularly at all at 1B, they're going to have the worst infield defense in baseball.

Posted
1 hour ago, Chembry said:

That doesn't negate the fact they signed within a few weeks of spring training.

It also means it was not a bad thing. Complain when things work. 

Posted
1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

This signing makes more sense to me if Larnach isn't around.  It would be tough for Bell to spell Clemens at 1B against lefties while also spelling Larnach at DH against lefties

For me, the negative feelings about this signing stem from what it represents moreso than the move itself.  A move like this represents tripling down on the same fringe-contention middle ground strategy that has failed the last two seasons.  This team has no realistic chance of competing without like a dozen coin flips working out in their favor (the odds of winning 12 consecutive coin flips is about 0.02%, BTW) unless some real investment in the roster is made.  That clearly isn't coming.  But this also confirms that they're not willing to truly rebuild either.  So instead of facing the reality that nuking your own bullpen moved your realistic contention window to a period outside the remaining control of Ryan/Lopez and acting accordingly to maximize their returns, they're placing yet another half-hearted bet on a deeply flawed roster that just delays the inevitable and reduces the eventual returns for whenever they do face the reality that we will have yet another uncompetitive September.

So it's not about it being too expensive (it isn't) or taking away opportunities from players we need to learn more about at the major league level (at least he isn't a corner outfielder).   It's continuing to try to thread an impossible needle.  It's a continued inability to honestly assess your own roster.  It's choosing the path that is the worst of both worlds

Real investment in the roster in the past did not bring the fans out. People use the mantra invest all the time.  It didn’t work to bring in fans at 165 million. It didn’t work when the team was in first place the whole season. Invest implies return. There isn’t return 

Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think what this shows is a significant faction of fans are tired of dumpster diving for replacement level players to simply eat up a budget rather than spending money on fewer guys who are seemingly obvious upgrades.

Josh Bell has been the definition of a replacement level (aka next in-line AAA call up) for 3 years. No reason not to go sign Ty France again at $1.7MM based on Spotrac's estimate. 

Save the expenditure for something of value.

I get it but it's kind of a catch 22.  They have holes at 1B/SS/3B/RF and several BP positions.  $25M for one of the top guys leaves us with a lot of holes.  Not to mention, one of those top guys is not coming to this this mess without a significant overpay.  

Posted

Josh Bell is not "fine" at 1B.  He's been a severely poor fielder at 1B his entire career.  His only real value is as a switch hitting bat at DH.  The Twins would be better off with Clemens or even Julien "fielding" at 1B.  Josh Bell is THAT BAD.

Nathaniel Lowe at maybe a couple million dollars more would have been a clear roster upgrade.  Miguel Andujar would have been "slightly" better at 1B and would have made more consistent contact.

This is the FO's FIRST move of the off season and they made a $7 million mistake.  The Twins will be lucky to get anybody to show any interest in acquiring Bell at the trade deadline.  

Posted
12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's the DH, he's blocking Roden from playing, unless they bench or trade Wallner.... who should be the DH. If he's the first baseman, good luck to the people near the first base line. So, unless he's the starting first baseman, he's absolutely blocking people. 

He is blocking - blocking - blocking the stuck record goes on and on and on and on....

 

Posted

Bat only guys have a hard time accumulating WAR and Bell looks to add to a team only for his ability to hit. If he can regularly play and hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup, it will at least add length Playing him at first only occasionally would appear to be wise, but depending how injuries shake out, he might be over at the gateway more than he should.

I've never thought that a left handed hitter who has wide platoon stats should be backed up by another left handed hitter who also has wide platoon splits and that would have been the case with Clemens and Julien. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs had him the 140 th best free agent, and Minnesota, who claims to have a limited budget, spent 7 million on him....

Shades of the Joey Gallo signing... He was a Boras client as well 😐

Posted

I could sit here and rant about the move. I didn’t want another 1 year stop gap solution at first base. Bell is a Twin. For me the healthy choice to look forward and be hopeful. 

I have been interested in how the previous season xwOBA might be a better predictor for the next season than the previous season slash stats. Among the 40 first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances Bell’s xwOBA was 9th with Harper and Olson in front of him and Contreras and Freeman behind him. Bell’s xwOBA was .359. Buxton led the Twins with an xwOBA of .348.

 

Note: Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

Posted
2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

We need to get beyond the idea of "success at a cost of 7 million." Ty France was a "success at the cost of 1 million," but he didn't help the team win baseball games. They don't give out division titles or World Series births for getting the best deals. You have to have real, actual, above average talent to do that. Teams in the Twins tax bracket need to get their "success at a cost..." production from league minimum guys, preferably with options left. If the Twins are spending $7 million on a free agent, they need much more than a good deal, they need real, above average production.

Bell has never been "close to average" on defense. He's awful. If they plan to play him regularly at all at 1B, they're going to have the worst infield defense in baseball.

The Twins won a world series with a 3B platoon and a LF lead off hitter with less than .320 OBP 

It's about outscoring the competition on a daily basis.  

Bell adds depth to the lineup. He is a #6 type hitter. For 7 million in FA his bat is solid.  Way better than the 5 million the Royals are paying Lane Thomas next season.  That guy hit under .200.

Posted
2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I get it but it's kind of a catch 22.  They have holes at 1B/SS/3B/RF and several BP positions.  $25M for one of the top guys leaves us with a lot of holes.  Not to mention, one of those top guys is not coming to this this mess without a significant overpay.  

It's kind of the point I've been trying to make in other threads. $110MM doesn't make the Twins any better than they are at $90MM. It just doesn't matter. Falvey has no concept of how to manage a budget. None.

It's like needing a new car because your 2000 Ford Focus took a dump. You're saying you can't afford a $100k new BMW so you spend everything you've got on an absurdly overpriced $10k rusty, broken down, non-running 2010 Ford Focus with 300k on the clock. Great deal! It's way less expensive than a new BMW... but it's no better than your old car. It just makes your wallet lighter.

For every Carlos Santana, there's a Manny Margot, Joey Gallo and an Andrelton Simmons.

Posted

I get that his xwOBA looks good & that he had a resurgence in the 2nd half last season. He may hit for us, but why spend 7M of the 20M they supposedly have on someone who gives the team very little incremental gain. Clemens & Larnach the two players who he'll be in competition with for PA's are a lot like him offensively & Clemens is clearly better defensively at 1B.

As I mentioned above we might think they're going to trade Larnach, but how does that help? Again, they're similar hitters & Bell is being paid over 2M more than what Larnach is likely to get.

We have a glaring need in the bullpen & at SS so spending 1/3 of our budget on this doesn't seem like a good fit. It just doesn't make sense to me, but as @jorgenswest said he is a Twin now so we have to hope those numbers indicate a big step forward in offensive production.

Posted
20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's kind of the point I've been trying to make in other threads. $110MM doesn't make the Twins any better than they are at $90MM. It just doesn't matter. Falvey has no concept of how to manage a budget. None.

Couldn't agree more with this. Falvey already started the rebuild so just finish the job. He's not going to rebuild an entire bullpen on the fly, nor fill the key holes on the team for an additional $20 million.

It's also why I'm scratching my head about keeping Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton. Nothing they do this offseason really matters. They're going to be a 90+ loss team unless some prospects pop off. So what's the point of keeping them? Fan interest is already at a 25 year low, who cares if they reduce it even more trading away their other veterans? 

Posted
10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

You just can’t make this up.  Just what we need - a 33 year old on the last legs of his career blocking critical innings and ABs from our younger players.

This is a great signing. Our win projection in ‘26 just skyrocketed to 72 from 71. lol. 

Are we honestly supposed to get emotionally invested as a fan in another one year rental retread player?  Haven’t we seen enough of this?

I’m done blaming Falvey. He is who he is and you can’t blame him for trying to save his career, let alone his job.  Moves like this are the fault of the Nephew.

What a clown show this franchise is. 

What MLB caliber First Baseman do the TWINS have that is getting his opportunities/innings blocked by the Bell acquisition?

Bell has a career 114 OPS+ and his total for ‘25 was 110. Seems he can still be productive - switch hitter helps - he struck out 4 less times. than Clemens with 125 more AB’s.

Not an ideal signing but certainly an improvement over present options.

Buxton - Keaschall - Lewis - Bell - Larnach - Jeffers - Wallner - Lee - Martin …………still could use some juice with an additional pick-up. Can’t imagine TEAM not just hoping Lewis - Wallner - Lee just play to their average expectations & this no more additions.

Castro could be an FA candidate adding depth that’s affordable and adds another switch hitting bat……..IF & OF option with the glove.

Would leave $5-$8M for a couple middling FA relievers…………the Coulombe/Thielbar types.

At some point one of Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins could add some needed energy at the plate………really need a young SS to be able to make there way to Big Club sooner than later in ‘26.

Posted
Just now, JD-TWINS said:

What MLB caliber First Baseman do the TWINS have that is getting his opportunities/innings blocked by the Bell acquisition?

Bell has a career 114 OPS+ and his total for ‘25 was 110. Seems he can still be productive - switch hitter helps - he struck out 4 less times. than Clemens with 125 more AB’s.

Not an ideal signing but certainly an improvement over present options.

Buxton - Keaschall - Lewis - Bell - Larnach - Jeffers - Wallner - Lee - Martin …………still could use some juice with an additional pick-up. Can’t imagine TEAM not just hoping Lewis - Wallner - Lee just play to their average expectations & this no more additions.

Castro could be an FA candidate adding depth that’s affordable and adds another switch hitting bat……..IF & OF option with the glove.

Would leave $5-$8M for a couple middling FA relievers…………the Coulombe/Thielbar types.

At some point one of Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins could add some needed energy at the plate………really need a young SS to be able to make there way to Big Club sooner than later in ‘26.

Career? Almost all of that was more than 3 years ago.

If he DHs, he blocks Wallner or Roden (or Larnach, who I still don't get how he's around still) from playing. If he doesn't Dh, well, he's not good at first base at all. So, it comes down to a guy that isn't a great hitter playing awful defense at first, or blocking the Twins from finding out if Roden can hit or not in a likely lost year. 

Posted
32 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I'm shocked you might like this signing? He's dreadful on defense. 

That means he will fit right in with the Twins.

Posted
54 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

For every Carlos Santana, there's a Manny Margot, Joey Gallo and an Andrelton Simmons.

If the Twins had had Gallo and Simmons defense they probably would have won 10 more games.

Posted
9 hours ago, Elliot said:

In the tree world lilacs have great range. Just try to keep one confined to one area. Difficult. 

There's a backstory behind that comment. I grew up outside of town and didn't have many neighbors. We still played ball but there were only a couple players on offense and a couple on defense at any given time. First base was an oak tree and third base was a lilac bush. If you could hit the oak tree with your throw before the runner got there he was out. If you hit the ball into the lilac bush on the fly it was also an out. I figure Bell has more range than the oak tree but not more than the lilac bush. The bush was about 8 feet across at it's widest spot.

Posted
7 minutes ago, RpR said:

That means he will fit right in with the Twins.

I don't understand why they're locking DH in with Josh Bell when there are plenty of DH candidates on the team already. If he's the every day 1B, God help us. An infield of Bell 1B - Clemens/Keaschall 2B - Lee SS - Lewis 3B has the potential to be epically bad. 

Posted
29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It would be great if he hits like he did the 2nd half of last year all year. That is, however, not likely. But, hey, it could happen.

It's not going to happen. But I think the thing that frustrates some of us here is that even if he did, it won't make a difference. This team needs a lot more help than a productive Bell can provide. And if he's hitting well, they're playing him. His defensive will then be a costly liability that offsets some of his offensive gains. And all the while it does absolutely nothing to help the Twins sort out their long-term needs at 1B. If he's shifted to DH, again he's pulling ABs from younger guys who need them.

 

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