Rule 5 Roster Math: Six Twins Prospects Too Valuable to Lose and Six At-Risk Prospects

[Mike Sixel]

No on Fedko and Rosario. Yes to your obvious six. I am now unsure on Klein.

I'd like them to consolidate some of these 40-45 FV guys into a catcher prospect.... Or some high upside bullpen arms. But I don't see how that happens. 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Non-tendering or releasing Sands, Topa, or Wallner is organizational malpractice and a fireable offense.

I don't know about Topa, it wouldn't be that crazy if they opted out on a reliever with a 1.43 WHIP and is 35 with durability issues.

[Cris E]

I can't see anyone taking a flyer on some of the1 current 40 man residents. McCusker and Gasper, for example, can be set on the shelf with a handshake offer for an invite to spring training. Neither is likely to be signed as anything more than organizational filler and those deals aren't cut until spring.

Also, the calculus of losing players needs to be more sophisticated than Chance Of Losing. You need to gauge the actual value of these guys you might be clinging to and the chances that one actually gets picked up. As pointed out above, it's almost 0% for most young non-pitchers, particularly those without any defensive value. McCusker is a one dimensional guy with no defensive value who hasn't shown he can touch good pitching, and hoping that he learns to hit at age 28 is not nearly as interesting or likely as seeing if one of the younger guys develops his skills. He got a look last year and his minor league 30-40% K rate went over 50% with the Twins. There's no situation where he should be the chosen future option given the number of new faces needing a look (and all the guys like Wallner who might need another place to stand between ABs.)  Gaspar is similar except for the fact that he's a weak catcher with a great mustache. Those are a dime a dozen rather than a penny a long ton. If they honestly think highly enough of Olivar that there's a chance that someone could grab him as a backup catcher, then run that same risk that we might be that team and leave Gaspar free until the dust settles. It creates a problem on the 40 man in the short term, but you're more likely to get McCusker over-looked now than in March when teams are actively trying to complete the back half of their AAA rosters. 

 

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Cris E said:

hoping that he learns to hit at age 28 is not nearly as interesting 

But, but, but, but, Brent Rooker!  😄

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Maybe they'll take a pitcher they think could be a bullpen choice in the Rule 5, but seems unlikely: they need proven help not more young talent to sort through that they can't option.

They need high upside talent. There are 5-6 spots in the bullpen open right now. They can certainly afford to carry a pitcher this season. They have one of the highest picks in the Rule 5 draft and should definitely take somebody. 

[Doctor Gast]

The system is full of AAAA, undeveloped, unproven, mediocre & redundant players, which was greatly bloated due to the great sell-off. We could DFA a few more players from the 40 & still have plenty more room for these players. This year, we don't have any sure-fire no-brainers to protect like years past. But thanks to the sell-off, we have a ton of middle-of-the-road ones that make it difficult to protect them all. We lost Laweryson already, a promising pitcher that IMO, Twins thought would slip by. How many more of these types of players will be claimed? 

We have a huge glut of OFers, so we have to get busy to find other homes for many of them. Although Gabriel Gonzalez should be protected, yet because of his hype, he should be traded as soon as possible, so we can get as much as we can before he turns into a pumpkin. I'm all for keeping Fedco. Olivar as a catcher was very promising & valuable, but as an OFer he is worthless. It's a pity that the Twins couldn't develop him. Maybe someone else can.

We have to protect as many promising prospects as we can now. & as more promising player opportunities come along, we start to DFA those who we can't trade. If we trade anyone else like Ryan, Lopez or Jeffers that'll only compound our existing problem. 

 

[chpettit19]

Ah, yes, the Rule 5 draft. The most freaked out over for no reason part of the offseason. The Twins aren't losing any players to the Rule 5 draft. Kyler Fedko was the 32nd best hitter in AAA between 24 and 26 years old with at least 100 PAs. Every team has one of him. 10-15 guys get taken in the Rule 5 and there's rarely ever more than 3 or 4 that actually stick with the selecting team. 

Do the exercise in reverse. If you're looking at the Twins bad MLB roster and thinking of who they should be grabbing in the Rule 5, are you hoping for Kyler Fedko or Kala'i Rosario? I'm certainly not. Just look at who people were worried about losing last year. Ricardo Olivar was on the list then, too. So was Rosario. Neither of them made it past the level they were at (AA) when people were worried about them in 2024. MacLeod also on that list. Rubel Cespedes, Will Holland, and Noah Cardenas also made Nick's article. 

Patrick Winkel, Jovani Moran, and Jaylen Nowlin were other names brought up in the comments section that people feared may get taken.

Raya and Adams were protected. Anybody thrilled with them saving those 2 at this point? Possibly serviceable relievers, but certainly not anybody folks around here are overly excited about. Shoot, Adams' name is being listed as a guy to waive to protect the next Adams.

The level of prospect we're talking about is simply not worth worrying about. Especially on the position player side. But we'll continue to do it every year.

[Greglw3]

I would protect the six locks and Rosario and Fedko. Their inclusion only enhances, by whatever factor, Derek Sheltons chances of having a running team like the one Jayce Tingler suggested to Rocco late last year and was surely a success.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

No on Fedko and Rosario. Yes to your obvious six. I am now unsure on Klein.

I'd like them to consolidate some of these 40-45 FV guys into a catcher prospect.... Or some high upside bullpen arms. But I don't see how that happens. 

 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

No on Fedko and Rosario. Yes to your obvious six. I am now unsure on Klein.

I'd like them to consolidate some of these 40-45 FV guys into a catcher prospect.... Or some high upside bullpen arms. But I don't see how that happens. 

No to 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases but maybe Yes on Klein? They really need the speed. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

 

No to 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases but maybe Yes on Klein? They really need the speed. 

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out.

But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

[ashbury]

35 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

a running team like the one Jayce Tingler suggested to Rocco late last year and was surely a success.

When would you say the team started running?  In the final 20 games of the season, I count 83 runs.  4.15 runs per game   For the entire months of August and September combined, i.e. after the trade deadline, they scored 227 across those 54 games, or 4.20 per game.  Pretty much in line with the paltry 4.19 they scored across the season as a whole.

MLB average in 2025 was 4.45, and the good offenses in the majors scored more like 5.

I don't see any evidence of "success" in terms of actual run-scoring.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You are calling it small sample size.  You are also not allowing for any further improvement in his stuff.  He was solid at AAA and solid in a small sample size.  If we can do significantly better than him in the bullpen great.  As of now my guess is we will have 1-2 players of worse quality than him in the bullpen this year - or more.  

Further improvement would be he becomes Michael Tonkin. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

When would you say the team started running?  In the final 20 games of the season, I count 83 runs.  4.15 runs per game   For the entire months of August and September combined, i.e. after the trade deadline, they scored 227 across those 54 games, or 4.20 per game.  Pretty much in line with the paltry 4.19 they scored across the season as a whole.

MLB average in 2025 was 4.45, and the good offenses in the majors scored more like 5.

I don't see any evidence of "success" in terms of actual run-scoring.

Correct. They ran into enough outs to cancel out almost all of their base stealing gains.

[Seth Stohs]

8 hours ago, rdehring said:

First, is really a question.  Where will the Twins be drafting in this year's Rule 5 draft?  Expect it will be very high, thus, they will likely want to leave at least one 40-man spot open to find that next Santana or Smith.

Second, with Gonzalez being a lock and EmRod/Jenkins either on the 40-man or a likely 2026 add, they don't have a need to add any more corner outfielders.  Thus, the likelihood of Fedko or Rosario being added goes down.  I like both of those guys, a lot.  Is it likely they could be part of a trade prior to the draft?  As unlikely as that is.

Finally, the Twins have a couple promising starters, Festa and Matthews, who have been around for a couple years.  Add the big group brought in last July and you have a large group of good starting prospects.  Yet, I see the three you call 'locks' having higher upside than any of the above.  At least Prielipp and Rojas do, in my opinion.  I guess my question is what do the Twins do with more starters than needed?  And how/when do they do it?

And that leads to an observation.  The Front Office needs to decide what their plan is for the off-season and how they plan to compete in 2026?  And that's assuming they do plan to compete.  For example, this more than needed group of young starters goes away should they decide to trade Ryan, and/or Lopez. 

Considering there are what you call six locks to be added, I don't see their decisions when adding those will tell us anything about their plans for the winter.  

[Edit. On this Veteran's Day, wanted to add a thank you to all of us who served America at some time in our lives.] 

I would assume the Twins will pick 2nd (or 3rd) in the Rule 5. 

I don't know if anyone has as high potential as Festa and Zebby. They both have some really good stuff and velocity when healthy. But Prielipp has upside and Rojas is all about upside at this point. What do the Twins do with more starters than needed? Well, I can't imagine that ever being a problem. Obviously most of these guys have 2 or 3 option years to improve and learn and grow, and there will be injuries and trades. I'll never worry about having too much pitching. 

I'm not sure how much they're trying to compete in 2026. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

But, but, but, but, Brent Rooker!  😄

Rooker was born to hit... He's always been an anomaly. For him, it was 100% about opportunity. 

[Seth Stohs]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Twins will lose players in this years rule 5 draft , regarded as a strong field of prospects, teams are doing there diligence on our prospects ...

One thing I believe Seth forgot to mention in the rule 5  is if we lose a player we can add back to the list a player to be protected  unless that has changed ...

 

I don't recall that ever being the rule for the Rule 5 draft... There's some of that in expansion drafts. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The system is full of AAAA, undeveloped, unproven, mediocre & redundant players, which was greatly bloated due to the great sell-off. We could DFA a few more players from the 40 & still have plenty more room for these players. This year, we don't have any sure-fire no-brainers to protect like years past. But thanks to the sell-off, we have a ton of middle-of-the-road ones that make it difficult to protect them all. We lost Laweryson already, a promising pitcher that IMO, Twins thought would slip by. How many more of these types of players will be claimed? 

We have a huge glut of OFers, so we have to get busy to find other homes for many of them. Although Gabriel Gonzalez should be protected, yet because of his hype, he should be traded as soon as possible, so we can get as much as we can before he turns into a pumpkin. I'm all for keeping Fedco. Olivar as a catcher was very promising & valuable, but as an OFer he is worthless. It's a pity that the Twins couldn't develop him. Maybe someone else can.

We have to protect as many promising prospects as we can now. & as more promising player opportunities come along, we start to DFA those who we can't trade. If we trade anyone else like Ryan, Lopez or Jeffers that'll only compound our existing problem. 

The Angels likely have had their eye on Laweryson for a while. I was so happy the Twins called him up before he became a free agent. It was just that final week or two, so it clearly wasn't their plan. But good for him, and now he gets a chance in another organization (just like if they wouldn't have added him). 

Gonzalez is an easy choice. And Fedko probably should be based on his variety of skills that could be utilized off of the bench. 

Olivar has developed nicely as he's gotten bigger and stronger. He is still an intriguing catching prospect, and they like his bat well enough to play him elsewhere. Very few catchers are going to be good offensively and defensively in the big leagues. If he becomes a regular backup, that's a win. 

[Seth Stohs]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I am pretty high on MacLeod as well.  The only reason he is a non-add for me is he seems more of a crafty lefty and I am not sure how that will translate.  Still he could be a pretty good bullpen arm.  Can he transition right away I guess is the question.

Maybe I am over rating Klein but he seems like he has a bigger fastball and I think that plays better out of the pen.  December is coming and then we'll know how the Twins feel about the plethora of arms they have on the bubble.

MacLeod tops out around 91, maybe 92. And his control is still working back after his Tommy John. I think he can be a big league pitcher sometime. 

[Seth Stohs]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are potentially way too many outfielders on the 40-man roster. Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Mendez, Rosario, Fedko plus Kreidler and Clemens who can play outfield. That's 14-16 outfielders on the 40-man. Jenkins won't be on the roster in the offseason but he's pretty certain to be on it sometime in 2026.

They need to pick their best 9 from that group. I think that's Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Mendez and Rosario.

Certainly that is what will happen, but it'll happen over the next 4 months. There'll likely be a player or two not on that list that will come to the organization. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Ah, yes, the Rule 5 draft. The most freaked out over for no reason part of the offseason. The Twins aren't losing any players to the Rule 5 draft. Kyler Fedko was the 32nd best hitter in AAA between 24 and 26 years old with at least 100 PAs. Every team has one of him. 10-15 guys get taken in the Rule 5 and there's rarely ever more than 3 or 4 that actually stick with the selecting team. 

Do the exercise in reverse. If you're looking at the Twins bad MLB roster and thinking of who they should be grabbing in the Rule 5, are you hoping for Kyler Fedko or Kala'i Rosario? I'm certainly not. Just look at who people were worried about losing last year. Ricardo Olivar was on the list then, too. So was Rosario. Neither of them made it past the level they were at (AA) when people were worried about them in 2024. MacLeod also on that list. Rubel Cespedes, Will Holland, and Noah Cardenas also made Nick's article. 

Patrick Winkel, Jovani Moran, and Jaylen Nowlin were other names brought up in the comments section that people feared may get taken.

Raya and Adams were protected. Anybody thrilled with them saving those 2 at this point? Possibly serviceable relievers, but certainly not anybody folks around here are overly excited about. Shoot, Adams' name is being listed as a guy to waive to protect the next Adams.

The level of prospect we're talking about is simply not worth worrying about. Especially on the position player side. But we'll continue to do it every year.

You are correct in that it is something we probably worry about more than we need to. Most years old 15-22 guys get taken in the MLB version. The Twins haven't really lost anyone since Tyler Wells and Akil Baddoo in 2020 coming off of a last season and both of them coming back from Tommy John surgery. 

That said, it's a great opportunity to talk about minor leaguers and put them in the context of just how close they are and how many skills a player may possess that are "big-league ready", etc. 

But ultimately, yes, we are talking about guys who an organization deemed the 38th or 39th or 40th best player in the other organizations. That's not really true, of course, because of roster rules and realities and such. 

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out.

But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

 

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out.

But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

 

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out.

But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

Credit to Cody Christie, writing for Twins Daily:

"Rosario’s improved approach and ability to drive the ball to all fields have made him a more complete offensive threat. For the season, he is hitting .258/.362/.493 with 26 doubles and 23 home runs. He’s also posting those totals while being nearly two years younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. His performance continues to reinforce his standing as one of the most intriguing middle-of-the-order bats in the system"

[DocBauer]

Plenty of room to add the first 6. I'd also add Klein. He was inconsistent when he reached St Paul, but he's a big kid with good velocity and good K potential. I can see him in the Twins bullpen sometime this season. And I could see someone grab him that sees the same thing. Grab him, stash him, and let him cut loose 1 inning at a time, or be the sacrificial lamb in blowouts that just eats innings.

Fedko could be of interest to someone in need of a 4th OF, but as pointed out, very, very few position players ever get selected, much less kept. 

So 6 plus 1 in my mind.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Gonzalez is an easy choice. And Fedko probably should be based on his variety of skills that could be utilized off of the bench. 

Fedko is 26 years old with a career minor league OPS of .765, At 25 he put up an OPS of.868 in AA (not really very impressive) nothing says mediocre like a guy his age doing decent (Not great) in the minors. If some team wants to roster him in the majors all year, let them have him, because if he ever players more than a bit role for the Twins things have gone horribly wrong once again.  

Legit major league teams don't worry about losing a non prospect like Fedko, they are a dime a dozen in the minors, and yes GG is easy, he is 22 (in January) playing in AAA and is a easy keep.

[chpettit19]

15 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

 

 

Credit to Cody Christie, writing for Twins Daily:

"Rosario’s improved approach and ability to drive the ball to all fields have made him a more complete offensive threat. For the season, he is hitting .258/.362/.493 with 26 doubles and 23 home runs. He’s also posting those totals while being nearly two years younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. His performance continues to reinforce his standing as one of the most intriguing middle-of-the-order bats in the system"

That's great. He isn't going to do that in the majors. Neither is Fedko. Here is the list of every major league baseball player to reach 20 HRs and 20 SBs last year. All of them. The complete and total list. It's 24 guys. In all of baseball. Kyler Fedko and Kala'i Rosario are not even touching this caliber of player. Rosario was in this same type of article last year. While he was in AA just like he was this year. Nobody picked him last year and nobody is going to pick him this year. If those guys were 20/20, let alone 25/35, threats in the majors they'd be there already. They aren't.

[stringer bell]

It's not the end of the world to lose a player in the Rule V. The player that gets more opportunity because someone in the system leaves might be just as good or better. That said, I hope they don't lose anyone of substance since the team last eleven players to trades on 7/31. 

I expect some more roster trimming by the November 18 deadline, so adding six or seven minor leaguers is probably doable. They will probably go heavy on adding pitchers by the deadline.

[Rosterman]

Yes, people forget that you can't cut 40-man adds unless via trade, so you have to choose carefully, and also have a few "spare parts" on the roster.

What makes the Twins decision tough this year is that none of the names you mentioned would probably break spring camp with the club. Yet they could potentially come up by mid-season. (Last year, Rodriguez and Raya didn't make the team at all). This becomes a problem if you need players, due to inujury or ourtight badness. Yet you can't touch the prospects.

Kyle Fedko should've been an interesting tryout last season, especially if he could play first. The Twins right now are stuck with basically Julien and Clemens for 1B and a full roster (although names like McCusker, Kiersey, Gasper, Fitzgerald, Pereda, Kreider are on the bubble, not to mention arbitration non-tenders Larnarch or Topa). 

It does get complicated in the pitching arena. Abel, Ohl, Adams, Festa, Matthews, Bradley. Gonna have the best AAA starting staff in baseball or move some bigger contracts from the regular staff for more... prospects.

Y'know, the Twins have a portfolio of catchers on the verge to being backups, yet how many do you devote to that roster spot, or what kind of leash do you have, especially when you "pop" guys off a 40-man and anyone can claim them (as Twins saw in Laweryson neing grabbed as they tried to sneak him thru, not to mention he loss f pitching arms Henriquez and Headrick last season as the Twins chose to keep... Tonkin).

Will Holland got the message and walked as a six-year minors free agent. Surprised (speaking of first baseman) Aaron Sabato is still around. 

[FlyingFinn]

On 11/11/2025 at 11:26 AM, PatPfund said:

Given that context, I'd consider the first 4 here as locks, because I could see them on the MLB club next year. I could see Mendez and Culpepper as strong possibilities, because they might help next year. The rest I wouldn't worry about. Maybe somebody grabs one or two (though probably not), but we likely get them back anyway; maybe better than before with the new perspective. (A clue on Mendez is that he wouldn't be an answer for next season at a position the Twins are dying for help; if he can't stick here, other teams might be thinking the same thing.)

We are almost exactly on the same page. I agree with your analysis on pitchers vs hitters taken in the Rule 5 draft. Thus, I wouldn't have Mendez but I would have Culpepper and Klein on the 40 man. 

[NYCTK]

On 11/11/2025 at 9:59 AM, DJL44 said:

I don't think teams are going to be looking for Fedko in the Rule 5 draft. The upside has to be high enough to make it worth carrying a non-contributor on the roster for a whole season. There are several minor league free agents with stats as good as Fedko and they're a lot more convenient to acquire.

Fedko would need to be a defensive stud to be drawing interest with those batting lines. He's neither going to be added to the 40 man nor even at risk of being selected in the Rule 5. 

[Parfigliano]

On 11/13/2025 at 2:32 PM, NYCTK said:

Fedko would need to be a defensive stud to be drawing interest with those batting lines. He's neither going to be added to the 40 man nor even at risk of being selected in the Rule 5. 

Agree.

[twinstalker]

You nailed the six, Seth!  Rosario is not a coin flip, though.  He's not a keeper, and if the Twins somehow lost him, they'd get him right back before the end of the season, not that I care.