Do Twins Fans Know That Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach Are Different People?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Editor's Note: The below is, suddenly, part of a series amid what seems to be a very passionate ongoing conversation. We had a related piece submitted and a separate, third one proposed within the last week, so I'm creating an impromptu series on the subject of these two Twins outfielders—especially Wallner—and what makes the difference, actually and narratively, between a good-enough corner slugger and an insufficient one. Joing the discussion here, and know that there will be more analysis in this vein coming very soon.

A curious thing has happened across Twins Territory. For some reason, many people perceive Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach to be carbon copies, nigh indistinguishable from each other. Eagle-eyed fans can see this reflected in comments to articles on Twins Daily, tweets (and skeets) from people who filled up on haterade before the game, and others who seem to have never actually visited FanGraphs or Baseball Reference (or, you know, even read the stat lines in their local paper). The most frequent thing I see is people calling for both of them to be designated for assignment or traded this offseason, because in many people’s minds, both are eminently replaceable and thoroughly mediocre. As it turns out, though, the two players have been on wildly different career trajectories, and one of them is pretty dang valuable to the Twins for the next several seasons.

On one hand, I sort of get the confusion. After all, it was really hard to watch Twins games in 2023, in a purely logistical sense. Then this year, of course, has been a lost season, and… you know what? No. There’s just no excuse for not understanding the difference between a player who’s likely to be non-tendered in his second year of arbitration, and one who has legitimately been a very good hitter in each season he has played. Anyway, let’s look at the similarities and differences, and you can see for yourself.

Let’s start with the similarities. I’m going to tackle this one in bullet point fashion for brevity’s sake. They are both:

• Left-handed
• Large humans
• Drafted by the Twins
• Mediocre-to-poor fielders who would be better served by being a true DH, all else equal

That’s about it. Truly. Now, let’s look at the ways they are different.

For starters, let’s look at career OPS, and wRC+. Larnach has a career 104 wRC+, where 100 is average. This is paired with his .725 OPS. For a can’t-field, can’t-run hitter, that’s just not special in any way. Wallner, on the other hand, has a career wRC+ of 138 and a career OPS of .853. Even for a DH, that’s perfectly solid. You know who wins out here. It’s Wallner.

Want to see some fancy Baseball Savant percentiles? Coming right up!

As you can see here, this season, Wallner has been worth 18 batting runs, which is in the 86th percentile in baseball. His elite bat speed and barrel rate reflect the fact that he can (and often does) clobber the ball, and he walks a ton, too. His baserunning has been neutral, but a tiny bit above average. His fielding has been a negative, worth -2 runs, which is 37th-percentile performance, but this has been buoyed a bit by his cannon arm, which is nearly off the charts. How about Larnach?

Yeah. Sort of average. Replacement-level, even. Advantage: Wallner.

Is WAR more of your thing? Cool! Let’s see what FanGraphs has to say on the subject. In nearly 1,600 career plate appearances across 419 games, Larnach has been worth 2.7 fWAR. That’s a rate of 0.17 per 100 plate appearances. Wallner, on the other hand, has been worth 5.3 fWAR in roughly 900 plate appearances across 255 games. That’s a rate of 0.58 per 100. That’s nearly 3.5 times the rate for Larnach. Advantage: Wallner.

Maybe the argument is they are similarly clutch (or un-clutch). How do they stack up by WPA? Let’s start with Wallner, this time. Across parts of four seasons, he has accumulated 0.25 WPA. Ok, sort of average. Surely, Larnach has outperformed that, right? Wrong. Larnach has been a rally killer. While the last two seasons have been better than his norm, he has been worth -2.08 WPA across parts of five seasons. Advantage: Wallner, once again.

Really, by any performance measure, Wallner is the better player—and it’s not remotely close.

Next, let’s look at this through the lens of value to the team, and specifically, to a team on a budget. Larnach is likely to make about $5 million in 2026. With built-in arbitration raises, in 2027, he’s set to make somewhere between $8-10 million, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where a team will see the value in that sort of contract. If anything, it is perhaps more likely that he will be signing a minor-league deal similar to the one Willi Castro signed when coming to the Twins. Wallner, on the other hand, will be making the league minimum in 2026, and there’s no reason to think he won’t mash. He will hit arbitration for the first time in 2027, where (almost without a doubt) he will be worth the $2-3 million he will be set to make. Wallner is controllable for four more seasons, and would have legitimate value on the trade market should the Twins want to move on for some reason. Advantage: Wallner. Again.

Okay. So to sum all that up, Wallner has consistently hit like a middle-of-the-order bat, is cheap, controllable, is a Minnesota native, has been more clutch, more valuable, and is literally better in every way than Larnach. After writing almost 1,000 words on the subject, if you still aren’t a Wallner fan, that’s completely ok. Maybe you hate strikeouts. Maybe the stretches where he looks lost at the plate for a few weeks frustrate you. Maybe you think the hat-smelling thing is weird. I’m not gonna yum your yuck. But, let’s stop confusing him for a different player who doesn't constitute an apt comparison. As long-suffering Twins fans, we have been conditioned to think that nothing is working and the future is dimly lit. It’s important that we can appreciate the bright spots when they are happening right in front of our faces, and Wallner is one of those bright spots.

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[old nurse]

Larnach had about a league average bat for a starter in 2024. So is that season the outlier or is 2025 the outlier?  If 2025 is the outlier then he is a useful bat. If 2024 is the outlier then the question is who is ready? So far the fall auditions are not a large enough sample to identify a replacement 

[nicksaviking]

I think the only people who lump the two together are those who insist that an elite defense is the only way to play the game. 

Wallner, in a 'bad season' has an OPS of .823. You find room for a guy like that on any team.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well put. There really isn't any question that Wallner is a better player than Larnach. I would say that even if their salaries were reversed. Wallner is a guy you keep longer term, and even experiment with a position change (1B?) to make sure you keep him in the everyday lineup. By the way, Wallner is hitting .222/.319/.460 (.779) in 63 ABS against LH pitching this year, up from a .665 OPS against LHs last year, so he in fact may be an everyday player.  

I do have two nits though. First, you call Wallner a "middle of the order bat". Can't agree with you there. The man is hitting .215 with a .321 OBP. That is NOT a middle of the order bat unless this is the 70s in Chicago and Dave Kingman is what you got. I think it's a good bet that Wallner can become a middle of the order by raising his BA and OBP by 25-30 points or more to at least .240-.260/.350-.375. He went .259/.372 in a smaller sample size last year so I think he can and I really like the fact the Rocco has him in the #4 spot most days, but he ain't there yet on a consistent basis.  Second, on a more positive note, I think he can be an above average base runner. I love that Rocco has changed his ways and we're running all over the place. Wallner can be part of that. He has the speed and instincts to steal 10-15 bags a year and consistently go from 1st to 3rd on singles. 

Wallner is a keeper. We should be looking at everyone on the roster and decide whether they can be part of a contending team. That's the standard; not whether they are the best you got at a position, whether they are good enough to play on a contending team and in what role. Wallner hits well enough to play on a contending team but he needs a different role as a 1B/part time OF/DH. I could even live with him in RF if he raises that BA and OBP 25 points, but only if you have a Buxton type in CF and an above average fielding LF. Can't play Wallner in RF and a Larnach type in LF.  

[ashbury]

Larnach and Wallner fill the same role.  That role is left-handed corner outfielder.  You can have only so many of these on your roster.  Sure, if two candidates both prove capable defensively and can produce offense against righty and lefty pitchers alike, then there is ample room for them both.  Left-handed batters are always valued.  But when there are deficiencies, well, the two guys with similar profiles are always going to be a bit of an odd match on your roster.

Players can go about their jobs in different ways, as Larnach and Wallner do, and still face this.  So it's natural that they are thought of together.  If Wallner is proving to be the better hitter and (slightly?) better outfielder, and Larnach in particular remains helpless against left-handed pitchers, then Larnach's the one who has to go.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Twins have plenty of problems. Matt Wallner definitely isn’t one of them.  If the rest of our hitters could match his OPS, we might be in first place instead of nearly last.  
 

Larnach is an OK placeholder. He’s not a starter on a good team but he’s not an embarrassment either.  I expect he will be DFAd this winter. I hope we find someone better, but that’s not a sure thing.  

[LambchoP]

They are different players for sure, but having them both on the roster at the same time feels a bit redundant. They are both bad defenders but Wallner at least had the cannon. Larnach hits for better AVG and doesn't K as much as Wallner, but Wally will hit more HR. I'd say hold onto Wallner. If he can raise his AVG a bit and cut down on the K's he can be a legit middle of the order power threat. Maybe he can DH more and eventually play 1st base which would add to his value. With Jenkins, E Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko and Rosario all possible outfielders that are close, I think Larnach is expendable. Same with Outman and Roden. I really have no idea what they were thinking acquiring those two automatic outs lol 

[Chembry]

I argue these facts all the time on other social media platforms against those who say Wallner should be DFA'd or released by the Twins.   

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I think Larnach and Wallner fill the same role.  That role is left-handed corner outfielder.  You can have only so many of these on your roster.  Sure, if two candidates both prove capable defensively and can produce offense against righty and lefty pitchers, then there is ample room for them both.  But when there are deficiencies, well, the two guys with similar profiles are always going to be a bit of an odd match on your roster.

Players can go about their jobs in different ways, as Larnach and Wallner do, and still face this.  So it's natural that they are thought of together.

They do fill a similar role, but Wallner has been so much better at it that while talking about them in the context of the role is fine, treating them as if they're similar players who produce similar results is the problem.

Wallner is a good player, a productive hitter who brings elite power to the table and a solid OBP. Larnach is a platoon LH bat who doesn't abuse RHP enough to make up for the fact that he's unplayable against LHP. They can be linked by role, but not treated as if they're the same player. the numbers are really clear.

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

treating them as if they're similar players who produce similar results is the problem.

So who is doing that?  I haven't noticed it.

[hitterscount]

While not the same players on offense, they are similar defensivey, and yes defense is an important part of the game. They are both near the bottom of the league in defensive range and defensive runs saved. Neither is a threat on the base paths. 

Wallners OPS is largely driven by his HR rate, a lot of meanigless…, 20 hrs  w/ 35 rbi’s. Throw in a K rate around 35% with a BA of .216 and a BA w/ RISP of .173 and his value when looking at the big picture is grey. 

The HR's are attractive. Needs to do better with RISP. To me he is a DH, and or as stated multiple times I am not sure why he hasn't gotten a shot at 1st, Clemens and Julien are not the answer... ita joke we keep's  forcing them there. 

I don't see Larnach as part of the rebuild, Walner has some value, especially if he could solve the 1st base issue for a year or two.

[LA Vikes Fan]

52 minutes ago, Chembry said:

I argue these facts all the time on other social media platforms against those who say Wallner should be DFA'd or released by the Twins.   

Anyone that says Wallner should be released or DFA'd doesn't know very much about baseball. He gets snapped up immediately and we will see him as the Oakland/Miami/Colorado/CWS All Star game rep hitting 35+ HRs a season. 

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

While not the same players on offense, they are similar defensivey, and yes defense is an important part of the game. They are both near the bottom of the league in defensive range and defensive runs saved. Neither is a threat on the base paths. 

Wallners OPS is largely driven by his HR rate, a lot of meanigless…, 20 hrs  w/ 35 rbi’s. Throw in a K rate around 35% with a BA of .216 and a BA w/ RISP of .173 and his value when looking at the big picture is grey. 

The HR's are attractive. Needs to do better with RISP. To me he is a DH, and or as stated multiple times I am not sure why he hasn't gotten a shot at 1st, Clemens and Julien are not the answer... ita joke we keep's  forcing them there. 

I don't see Larnach as part of the rebuild, Walner has some value, especially if he could solve the 1st base issue for a year or two.

Wallner has a career OPS of .912 with runners in scoring position. With 2 outs and RISP it's 1.048

Larnach has a career OPS of .762 with RISP, and .807 with RISP and 2 outs.

It's a pretty substantial difference. 2025 Matt Wallner may be below his career averages, but we're only talking 52 ABs, so maybe the issue is more about the Twins not getting enough runners on base in front of Wallner than him being missing the mythical "clutchiness" gene or something.

[Woof Bronzer]

Who, specifically, thinks Larnach and Wallner are the same player?  I don't know that I've seen a single person make this case on this website.  I think there's a feeling that the 2 are redundant, that the Twins have too many left handed hitting one tool outfielders, but that's not what the writer is addressing here. 

Can we get an example of someone claiming they're the same player?

[The Great Hambino]

The Great 2025 Matt Wallner RBI Logic Puzzle

Above are his RBI totals and his RBI opportunities relative to league average.

His OPS+ is 122 - or 22% better than average.  If his RBI production matched that proportionally, we'd expect him to have about 44 RBI - 36 * 122%.  That looks bad.

However, if we call RISP his RBI opportunities*, then he's only had 74 opportunities versus a league average of 95 - or 22% worse than average.  Based on that, we'd expect him to have about 28 RBI - 36 * 78%.  That looks good.

If we expect him to have an RBI total in proportion to his OPS+ given his opportunities, I come up with 34 RBI - 28 * 122%.  Which basically brings us right back to his actual RBI total.

He really has been a human inkblot test this year.  Whether you think he's coming up short of the run production a player of his caliber should be having, there's plenty of evidence of that.  If you think he's being suppressed by lack of opportunity, there's evidence of that as well.  Anyone can draw the conclusion they want from examining his season.  He's an interesting case study of the kind of statistical profile you can have when traits are pushed to the extreme.

From looking at his Savant profile, it seems like he could greatly improve that 1st-percentile whiff rate without sacrificing too much of his immense power traits by reducing that chase rate - 41st percentile leaves quite a bit of room for improvement.  If he can do that, as the great Carl Weathers once said, "Baby, we got a stew goin"

That potential alone makes him more valuable than Larnach, who is a puddle of meh pretty much across the board.  Tack on age and cost, and it's no contest.  Roden gets to be the puddle of meh next year while Larnach plies his trade elsewhere.

*Before you say it - yes, I know this isn't really a fully accurate picture of his RBI opportunities.  A true calculation would take the expected number of RBI from each plate appearance - say, 0.4 for runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out, 0.06 for bases empty, etc (these figures are just for illustration, I'm both unwilling and unable to figure or find the actuals right now), sum them up, then compare that to his actual RBI total to really know how well he's doing given his opportunities.

[DocBauer]

Amen! 

I understand what defensive metrics say. But I also know why my eyes tell me. Wallner seemed smoother defensively last year. Maybe he's taking frustration out to the field with him? But agree he's probably still best as a DH and part time OF.

Nice shout out to @LA VIkes Fanfor listing the improvement by Wallner against LHP. I've heard those numbers before but don't recall seeing someone posted.

Just MY opinion, but I was really frustrated when Wallner was sent down early in 2024 after something like 26 AB. But fine. But he was.keot down WAY too long. He's going to be streaky. But don't they know their own player? This season, even when struggling, has maintained the 2nd best OPS on the team but he's been regulated to the lower portion of the lineup instead of worse hitters.  Very frustrating. 

I have no problem with Wallner in RF full time, with Buxton in CF, and a better glove in LF. Ultimately, it would be AWESOME to have Rodriguez and Jenkins in the corners and let Wallner be that DH/part-time OF. But Wallner's bat is for real. But yes, it would be nice if he starts hitting like 2023-'24 soon and the Twins get more base runners on in front of him.

 

[farmerguychris]

I'm not sure either has a long term future with the team.

Larnach is easy to predict - I don't expect we'll tender him this off season simply because he's an average player and we have younger people who will possibly also be average for less money.

Wallner on the other hand is currently more valuable - both because of his hitting, and his arm in the OF (which is why would be a waste to put at 1st). But - while he's cheap now, when will he start making millions with us?  I wouldn't be surprised if they try to trade him while his value is high, and before he gets expensive.  If we're trading Varland for future prospects - how is this much different when we have players like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Jenkins waiting in the wings?

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Who, specifically, thinks Larnach and Wallner are the same player?  I don't know that I've seen a single person make this case on this website.  I think there's a feeling that the 2 are redundant, that the Twins have too many left handed hitting one tool outfielders, but that's not what the writer is addressing here. 

Can we get an example of someone claiming they're the same player?

I think the author didn't want to single individuals out on this website, which is more than fair. But if you've been reading Wallner does get lumped in with Larnach frequently as a player that Rocco and/or the front office has "failed" to develop. If you read any thread where the topic comes up about the team's inability to develop position players, someone will put Wallner in the same category as Larnach, almost always because of Wallner's high strikeouts or low batting average.

I simply don't have time to go back through various threads and quote people (and I'm not interested in calling out individuals any more than I already have), but it happened in a discussion I was having on this site yesterday.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Anyone that says Wallner should be released or DFA'd doesn't know very much about baseball. He gets snapped up immediately and we will see him as the Oakland/Miami/Colorado/CWS All Star game rep hitting 35+ HRs a season. 

I agree with you...That's why I try to explain his stats...Here are a few examples:

 

 

[Craig Arko]

Also, Larnach looks like Chris Pratt. Wallner does not.

[Chembry]

sorry double post

 

 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

While not the same players on offense, they are similar defensivey, and yes defense is an important part of the game. They are both near the bottom of the league in defensive range and defensive runs saved. Neither is a threat on the base paths. 

Wallners OPS is largely driven by his HR rate, a lot of meanigless…, 20 hrs  w/ 35 rbi’s. Throw in a K rate around 35% with a BA of .216 and a BA w/ RISP of .173 and his value when looking at the big picture is grey. 

The HR's are attractive. Needs to do better with RISP. To me he is a DH, and or as stated multiple times I am not sure why he hasn't gotten a shot at 1st, Clemens and Julien are not the answer... ita joke we keep's  forcing them there. 

I don't see Larnach as part of the rebuild, Walner has some value, especially if he could solve the 1st base issue for a year or two.

What makes you, or any one here who floats that silly idea, that a player who is as agile as Lurch will be tolerable, much less competent,  at First Base.

A silly notion.

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner has a career OPS of .912 with runners in scoring position. With 2 outs and RISP it's 1.048

Larnach has a career OPS of .762 with RISP, and .807 with RISP and 2 outs.

It's a pretty substantial difference. 2025 Matt Wallner may be below his career averages, but we're only talking 52 ABs, so maybe the issue is more about the Twins not getting enough runners on base in front of Wallner than him being missing the mythical "clutchiness" gene or something.

Pretty sure the sentiment of my post was Larnach shouldn’t be part of the rebuild…Wallner due to his speed and defensive limitations is best suited as a DH long term and could be a solution at first. Not sure where that equals the two of them are the same player. 

[Eric Blonigen]

43 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think the author didn't want to single individuals out on this website, which is more than fair. But if you've been reading Wallner does get lumped in with Larnach frequently as a player that Rocco and/or the front office has "failed" to develop. If you read any thread where the topic comes up about the team's inability to develop position players, someone will put Wallner in the same category as Larnach, almost always because of Wallner's high strikeouts or low batting average.

Correct. I’m not one to call people out publicly, but I read a LOT of Twins content on this site and elsewhere, and it’s a daily occurrence. 

[Woof Bronzer]

3 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Correct. I’m not one to call people out publicly, but I read a LOT of Twins content on this site and elsewhere, and it’s a daily occurrence. 

Fair enough, we must be looking at different articles.  For what it's worth I understand that Wallner and Larnach are different people.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner has a career OPS of .912 with runners in scoring position. With 2 outs and RISP it's 1.048

Larnach has a career OPS of .762 with RISP, and .807 with RISP and 2 outs.

It's a pretty substantial difference. 2025 Matt Wallner may be below his career averages, but we're only talking 52 ABs, so maybe the issue is more about the Twins not getting enough runners on base in front of Wallner than him being missing the mythical "clutchiness" gene or something.

This. The problem isnt Wallner “clutchness” rather it is his teammates inability to get on base. 

[SteveLV]

I insulted Wallner about a week ago when he grounded into a 4-6-3 double play.  

He has raked ever since.

I am taking full credit as a motivator! :)

[jorgenswest]

Looking at Larnach’s profile it doesn’t appear he will have much excess value beyond his contract. They might be best non-tendering him rather than risk not finding a trade partner this winter.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Looking at Larnach’s profile it doesn’t appear he will have much excess value beyond his contract. They might be best non-tendering him rather than risk not finding a trade partner this winter.

My guess (hope?) is that they floated his name at the deadline so they have a feel for what his market is. I'd guess they didn't find anyone willing to meet their asking price and that's why he's still here. That should lead them to non-tendering him. At least that's what a good front office would've done. Wouldn't go into the offseason completely blind and would know whether or not they have a shot at trading him before they have to make the arbitration decision.

[Chembry]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Looking at Larnach’s profile it doesn’t appear he will have much excess value beyond his contract. They might be best non-tendering him rather than risk not finding a trade partner this winter.

I am thinking they try both...Up until Nov 21 deadline to offer arbitration.