Will Pohlad Family Cut Minnesota Twins Payroll Another $30 Million in 2026? Dan Hayes Thinks So

[gman]

IF the team is not working to compete in 2026 or 2027 why bring up guys early next year? Let them get lots of development time in St Paul and maybe bring them up towards the end of 2026. That would depend upon the strike outlook. The Twins could easily be a 100 loss team in 2026 and probably on the same pace in 2027 for however many games they play. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

By the way, CBS spots and Dan Hays at the Athletic are reporting that Bradley and/or Abel are likely to get a start this weekend in Chicago. Perfect team to let them start with. 

[Tjwalsh65]

Would pushing the payroll to 120 Million help pay for itself with more people in the seats?  There are many of us who want to love the twins and they have a lot of exiting young players coming.   Would we be completive in the central with a 120 Million payroll?

 

 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, Tjwalsh65 said:

Would pushing the payroll to 120 Million help pay for itself with more people in the seats?  There are many of us who want to love the twins and they have a lot of exiting young players coming.   Would we be completive in the central with a 120 Million payroll?

 

 

Competitive in the AL Central perhaps, but not in the AL at large. But that requires holding onto both Ryan and Lopez and is selling out the future in order to be a mediocre team in 2026. That sort of shortsightedness is why the Twins sucked so much these last couple seasons. 

It's better to just absolutely suck in 2026, fully stock those cupboards, and then go from there. 

[Doc Lenz]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is a projected payroll for next year.  Of course, we have to make some assumptions.  I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will.  Larnach is traded as well.  This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each.  Correa's $10M is included.

There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll.  Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role.  The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role.  Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026.

1	Bailey Ober	7,000,000
2	Zebby Matthews	820,000
3	Taj Bradley	820,000
4	David Festa	820,000
5	SWR	820,000
	Relief Pitchers
6	Cole Sands	820,000
7	LH Free Agent	5,000,000
8	RH Free Agent	5,000,000
9	Michael Tonkin	1,750,000
10	Justin Topa	1,750,000
11	Travis Adams	820,000
12	Andrew Morris	820,000
13	Funderburk	820,000
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000
15	Cardenas  /  Trade  /  FA	6,000,000
	Infielders
1B	Fedko / Julien / Sabato	820,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	820,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	820,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	820,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	820,000
22	Kyler Fedko	820,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,200,000
	Outfielders
24	Wallner  >>> Jenkins	820,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857
26	Roden  >>> Gonzalez or Erod	820,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	76,462,857

What did you do with Abel?

why keep Ober he’s on the down side. 

[hitterscount]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is a projected payroll for next year.  Of course, we have to make some assumptions.  I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will.  Larnach is traded as well.  This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each.  Correa's $10M is included.

There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll.  Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role.  The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role.  Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026.

1	Bailey Ober	7,000,000
2	Zebby Matthews	820,000
3	Taj Bradley	820,000
4	David Festa	820,000
5	SWR	820,000
	Relief Pitchers
6	Cole Sands	820,000
7	LH Free Agent	5,000,000
8	RH Free Agent	5,000,000
9	Michael Tonkin	1,750,000
10	Justin Topa	1,750,000
11	Travis Adams	820,000
12	Andrew Morris	820,000
13	Funderburk	820,000
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000
15	Cardenas  /  Trade  /  FA	6,000,000
	Infielders
1B	Fedko / Julien / Sabato	820,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	820,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	820,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	820,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	820,000
22	Kyler Fedko	820,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,200,000
	Outfielders
24	Wallner  >>> Jenkins	820,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857
26	Roden  >>> Gonzalez or Erod	820,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	76,462,857

Looks like a 65 win team... Hard to figure why attendance is plummeting.

[terrydactyls]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Wallner starts the season in the OF and is forced into a primary DH role by an OF prospect that plays better defense.  Of course, it's possible he gets traded at some point in 2026.  The 2.2 assumes allows for the possibility he steps up and remains with the team or remains with the team in a diminished role.  It won't make much difference ($1.4m) either way so in terms of payroll it's not much of an issue.

It doesn't make any difference if he is traded or "steps up", he will still make league minimum.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I understand why people want to move Lopez and Ryan, I just don't think it works if the rest of the team is young guys learning their way. You have to have something that keeps the games competitive if you want the young guys to learn - they need to be put in crucial late inning situations to get better. That 8th and 9th inning at bat isn't as instructive if you're down 8-3 as it is in a tie game, that 7th and 8th inning relief assignments not as helpful if you're down 3 or 4 (or 5 or 6) as with a small lead or in a tie game, and that start is more pressure packed and instructive if the team is around .500 and being mentioned in the wild card race as it is if you're 10 games under .500, etc. Players develop in competitive situations more quickly and better than on uncompetitive teams. Keeping Lopez and Ryan makes it much more likely we will be in competitive situations and I think that would really help speed up the development and frankly the evaluation of guys like Keaschall, Wallner, Lee, Lewis, Mathews, SWR, Adams, Ohl, etc. Lots of guys can play well on a team that is out of it by May, just look at Brent Rooker. We need guys that can play well when the games matter and you don't develop those guys if the starting pitching is so bad that the games never matter.   

I don't think most people WANT to move Lopez or Ryan; we're just expecting that they will get moved by an organization that doesn't expect to win in 2026 and an ownership that wants to cut payroll to increase their own profits.

I agree that even when you're going with a youth movement and relying on your prospects that it's smart to have some quality veterans in place to help carry the load, keep things competitive, show the young guys the ropes, etc. I just have no faith that this team under the ownership of the Pohlads, led by Joe Pohlad, will do anything to make this team more competitive or do anything in the offseason to improve the club in the short-term. I do believe that they will shed more payroll, claiming it's the only way to keep from losing money. (please be clear: I don't believe it for a second when the Pohlads cry poverty.)

[Major League Ready]

55 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

What did you do with Abel?

why keep Ober he’s on the down side. 

He is the first call-up from AAA.  Of course, this is debatable, but that's another conversation and it does not impact payroll.  I don't see them rushing him because what would be the point.  His presence is not going to thrust the twins into the playoff picture.  

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

It doesn't make any difference if he is traded or "steps up", he will still make league minimum.

You are absolutely right.  I have when they become arbitration eligible and arbitration level in my spreadsheet and I had Wallner down for 2026.  Somehow, I got the wrong info or entered info in the wrong cell.   

[LyleCole]

This is why I think they should go to first stage rebuild.  I mentioned that they should have a starting OF of Jenkins-Buxton-Rodriguez in another comment even if they decide not to go full rebuild (Never go full rebuild man...).   

I doubt they do this and I doubt they even consider a rebuild since they figure to throw out the Buxton-Lewis core position players with the Lopez-Ryan-Ober core rotation one last shot believing their will be competitive.  I still bring Jenkins and Rodriguez and start them and let them swing, they can't be worse than what they have had on the roster this season. 

Then if the season slips away they can dump Buxton and Lopez, maybe Ober in season with competitive teams competing for them.  The only risk in that is what if one of these guys gets hurt and you can't move them.  I probably would just say f it, lets rebuild.  Move Buxton and Lopez this offseason.   Get a good return and put those players right on the roster and play them to develop them.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Competitive in the AL Central perhaps, but not in the AL at large. But that requires holding onto both Ryan and Lopez and is selling out the future in order to be a mediocre team in 2026. That sort of shortsightedness is why the Twins sucked so much these last couple seasons. 

It's better to just absolutely suck in 2026, fully stock those cupboards, and then go from there. 

In a perfect world, trading Ryan and Lopez brings back two pitchers who are just like . . . . wait for it. . . . Ryan and Lopez.  The odds of getting more than that out of a trade are very slim.  The odds of getting less are quite high.  With that in mind, why trade those two pitchers now?

Right now, the Twins have a ways to go to even be competitive in the AL Central.  If they play their cards right and trade Ryan and Lopez, lots of things need to break right to get them back to where they are (pre-trade deadline) right now.  In two years.  With a lot of pain in the meantime.  And no guarantee (or even likelihood) of being competitive in 2027 or 2028.  

Saying that we just need to trade everybody else oversimplifies the difficulty of building a competitive team.  Having a team like the Twins had the past two years and adding the right parts makes them competitive (assuming reasonable health).  A completely torn down team isn't magically going to be competitive in 2028 because we say we'd like it to be.  It may not even be any better than it is now, post-trade deadline.  In the meantime, we've missed out on getting to watch Ryan and Lopez pitch for the Twins during their peak years.  

 

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Yes. 100%. 

The only trade the Pohalds seemingly had ANY input on was Correa, and that makes sense because it required a significant financial commitment from the Twins going forward. This DOES NOT mean, like so many seem to speculate, that the trade was forced by the Pohlads. 

You tried really hard in another thread to deny they even had input in Correa.  At least we've moved past that I guess.

Maybe it's time to take a step back and examine the bias you're walking in with.  I don't know why we're protecting the Pohlads from criticism.  Truly.  Unless you're in the will, it's pointless.  Let's just check off some things that shouldn't be controversial to acknowledge:

Money spent on payroll has had a high correlation to winning in MLB.  It has for many seasons now and that correlation has gotten stronger, not weaker.  So....while you CAN (in the strictly logical use of the word) compete without payroll increases, it is demonstrably much more difficult to achieve.  Especially for any long period of time.

The Pohlads "right-sizing" the payroll started this decline.  Their penny-pinching will allow it to fester.

The Pohlads absolutely mettle in moves for talent based on financial obligations.  They have been doing so since Terry Ryan.  Their GMs just understand their role: fall on the sword in public, win their favor, keep your job.  

Cutting payroll by the margins we're talking since 2023 is a wildly significant talent deficit.  There is just no other way around that.

[Irishman]

I really don't understand why people are still going to Twins games.   Until the team is sold by the Pohlad family. I'm not going to Target Field.

It is foolish of people to go to Target Field.

[jkcarew]

You mean to say that they’re NOT going to put any of the money saved in the Pohlad’s Correa salary dump back into the team on the field?? But I thought getting rid of Correa would give them breathing room to do…‘something’…even a modest ‘something’,,,to better the team.

Shocked, I tell you. Shocked!

If you didn’t see this coming, you’re either not paying attention, or your fandom emotions have you blind.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I don't think most people WANT to move Lopez or Ryan; we're just expecting that they will get moved by an organization that doesn't expect to win in 2026 and an ownership that wants to cut payroll to increase their own profits.

I agree that even when you're going with a youth movement and relying on your prospects that it's smart to have some quality veterans in place to help carry the load, keep things competitive, show the young guys the ropes, etc. I just have no faith that this team under the ownership of the Pohlads, led by Joe Pohlad, will do anything to make this team more competitive or do anything in the offseason to improve the club in the short-term. I do believe that they will shed more payroll, claiming it's the only way to keep from losing money. (please be clear: I don't believe it for a second when the Pohlads cry poverty.)

Yeah, I think you and I are really answering different questions - should  we trade Lopez and Ryan vs. will we trade Lopez and/or Ryan. I don't think we should trade either and particularly not for prospects. To me, that just not a smart way to build the team. At this point though, there may be other financial interests of Pohlad that trump baseball. It will be interesting to see if the identity of and power of the new investors makes a difference.  think you're right about Joe Pohlad. I 'm just hoping that the new investors are smarter and have enough clout/power to do things a better way.  

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Yeah, I think you and I are really answering different questions - should  we trade Lopez and Ryan vs. will we trade Lopez and/or Ryan. I don't think we should trade either and particularly not for prospects. To me, that just not a smart way to build the team. At this point though, there may be other financial interests of Pohlad that trump baseball. It will be interesting to see if the identity of and power of the new investors makes a difference.  think you're right about Joe Pohlad. I 'm just hoping that the new investors are smarter and have enough clout/power to do things a better way.  

I'm not sure why we should believe the investors have any power at all. Many MLB (and other pro sport leagues) teams have minority investors/owners. They aren't driving decisions. Just collecting checks.

Patrick Mahomes owns part of the Royals. He's not dictating the direction the Royals take as a franchise. Derek freaking Jeter couldn't influence decisions with the Marlins and he was part of that ownership group when they first bought the team. Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Jose Altidore are all part owners of the Bills. The GM didn't ask their input on the James Cook extension, they asked Terry Pegula. 

Minority owners get to brag about "owning" pro sports teams and attend fancy dinners. There's very little reason to believe a 20-whatever% stake bought them actual input on anything. And even less reason to believe they invested without a path to majority ownership because they care about wins and losses and are going to try to influence baseball decisions.

[Linus]

I think there is a better chance than not that this happens. It will be difficult to be a playoff team next year with a stagnant lineup and no bullpen. Then a lockout in 2027 means 2028 is the first year we will compete. Anyone who won’t be here then might as well be traded. All the extra payroll saved will pay the bills during the lockout. It could work if they do a good job on the trades. Of course if they don’t then we will be lost in the desert for a while. Please don’t take this post as me endorsing this idea rather what I think they are likely to do. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure why we should believe the investors have any power at all. Many MLB (and other pro sport leagues) teams have minority investors/owners. They aren't driving decisions. Just collecting checks.

Patrick Mahomes owns part of the Royals. He's not dictating the direction the Royals take as a franchise. Derek freaking Jeter couldn't influence decisions with the Marlins and he was part of that ownership group when they first bought the team. Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Jose Altidore are all part owners of the Bills. The GM didn't ask their input on the James Cook extension, they asked Terry Pegula. 

Minority owners get to brag about "owning" pro sports teams and attend fancy dinners. There's very little reason to believe a 20-whatever% stake bought them actual input on anything. And even less reason to believe they invested without a path to majority ownership because they care about wins and losses and are going to try to influence baseball decisions.

It al depends on the amount of the investment and the deal. The guys you mentioned are celebrity investors with small stakes and are typically just "names" put in groups to get approval. I've done and litigated a lot of deals with minority investors and you can do anything you want. The reason that it might be different here is that the new investors may be better business people, fanboys replacing family members who don't care, or maybe they don't want to be associated with a loser, or at least not with a non-competitive loser. On the other hand, these may be hard money people who are interested in cutting payroll to the bone now, making any money they can next year, participating in a 2027 lock out, and then cashing out in 2028 when there's a new CBA and new TV deals that may improve the value of the franchise. Or it could be anywhere in between.  Or maybe Joe wants to run a 120m payroll but couldn't with the debt service and now can without it.   

The point is that none of us know how the new investors will change the franchise direction, if they change it at all. You assume the worst without knowing, although admittedly not without any any basis given what we just saw at the deadline. You may be right. Or we may see something different. None of us know.  The one thig I do think we "know" is that the core we had was going nowhere fast so in some senses there's nowhere to go but up. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Pohlad's are still the principle owners. Falvey is still heading the FO. And Rocco is still the Manager. All of that info tells us pretty much all that we need to know. We have the history to go by. They won't tear it down all the way to the studs and they won't go all in to build a championship caliber team. Correa found this out while he was here and we should know this as longtime fans. They'll continue to "hope" that every prospect succeeds and supplement them with over priced lower tier veterans. These over priced vets will continue to get favored over the younger players who they spent years telling us were our future. This is what they have done for years. Why would that change now?

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Yeah, I think you and I are really answering different questions - should  we trade Lopez and Ryan vs. will we trade Lopez and/or Ryan. I don't think we should trade either and particularly not for prospects. To me, that just not a smart way to build the team. At this point though, there may be other financial interests of Pohlad that trump baseball. It will be interesting to see if the identity of and power of the new investors makes a difference.  think you're right about Joe Pohlad. I 'm just hoping that the new investors are smarter and have enough clout/power to do things a better way.  

The 5 teams in the bottom half of revenue with the most 92 win seasons in the past 25 years are (8) Oakland (7) Cleveland  (6) Tampa (5) Minnesota (4) Milwaukee.  I compiled the acquisition method for every player that produced 1.5 WAR or greater for all 30 teams.  The acquisition methods are Draft / International Draft / Acquired as a Prospect / Trade for Established / Free Agent..  The percentages are in the table below.  Acquiring players as prospects has been far more effective than trading for established players or free agency.

Drafted	Intl	AaP	Trade	FA
34.0%	8.0%	36.0%	11.0%	11.0%

BTW ... I used a very conservative definition for established players.  They were considered established if they had ever produced 1.5 WAR in a season.  If we were to use a more stringent definition of established (for example having produced 2 WAR in a season or 2 years, the gap between trading for established and trading for prospects would be far greater.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

In a perfect world, trading Ryan and Lopez brings back two pitchers

Please allow me to disagree. In a perfect world Ryan plus Ober brings back Nick Kurtz (not happening) or Ryan brings back someone like Max Clark or Jesus Made. The Twins need players who run, field, and hit. Currently, the roster includes one player who fits the standard, our oft-injured superstar centerfielder. 

What we don't know is how other teams value the Twins players.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

It al depends on the amount of the investment and the deal. The guys you mentioned are celebrity investors with small stakes and are typically just "names" put in groups to get approval. I've done and litigated a lot of deals with minority investors and you can do anything you want. The reason that it might be different here is that the new investors may be better business people, fanboys replacing family members who don't care, or maybe they don't want to be associated with a loser, or at least not with a non-competitive loser. On the other hand, these may be hard money people who are interested in cutting payroll to the bone now, making any money they can next year, participating in a 2027 lock out, and then cashing out in 2028 when there's a new CBA and new TV deals that may improve the value of the franchise. Or it could be anywhere in between.  Or maybe Joe wants to run a 120m payroll but couldn't with the debt service and now can without it.   

The point is that none of us know how the new investors will change the franchise direction, if they change it at all. You assume the worst without knowing, although admittedly not without any any basis given what we just saw at the deadline. You may be right. Or we may see something different. None of us know.  The one thig I do think we "know" is that the core we had was going nowhere fast so in some senses there's nowhere to go but up. 

But we don't "know nothing." We're not Jon Snow over here. It's been pretty widely reported that they bought somewhere in the 20s percentagewise. Essentially they bought out the debt. We know that Joe Pohlad himself said they were going to use the money to pay off the debt but wouldn't commit to spending any on payroll. And we have decades worth of Pohlad family ownership. Sure, we don't know anything 100% as far as how it'll all turn out, but we can make some pretty educated guesses.

You can take that info anyway you want. But I'm going to take the entire history of the Pohlads owning this team and make a pretty educated guess that Joe being willing to openly state they're paying off their debt with the money but not being willing to say they're going to put any of it towards payroll as a Broadway sized, flashing, neon sign that he isn't looking to run a $120 million payroll and that the investors aren't there to get this thing humming in the spending department anytime soon. We know, or have at least had multiple reports on, quite a bit. And I don't see any reason to believe any of the optimistic views on the investor situation.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Joe Mauer found out too. Instead of being surrounded by players who he could contend for a championship with he got Jamey Carroll, Kevin Correa, Mike Pelfrey etc. Nope. No tearing it down and no going all in for a title. We have history to tell us the direction of the Pohlads. 

[S Bart]

Why the word "REBUILD" is even used in an above comment is mystifying to me. Earth to fans...it is about taking off the debt and minimizing payroll. Pohlads and "rebuild" does not connect. The pohlads will not control this team in 2 to 3 years to even see a rebuild. The likelihood of a strike is imminent after the 2026 season. 

[AlGoreRythm]

11 hours ago, hitterscount said:

I googled what he's making, it said he signed a 3/30 million $ contract in 2022.  It didn't mention a option , but if there was I'm guessing it wouldn't be a paycut.

 

 

I cannot find that number anywhere, and it directly contradicts the story I quoted from Bob Nightengale from '23, so I'd really appreciate if you can provide a link.

I'm super interested if he's actually making 10M/yr. If he's one of MLBs highest paid managers that might get me on the Fire Rocco train.

Edit: I found the 3 yr 30M contract number. It was the AI generated result on Google. I looked at the source and the AI was erroneously pulling Christian Vasquez's 2022 contract number from Cot's Baseball Dictionary site.

I still cannot find any actual real dollar figure for Rocco's manager contract.

[old nurse]

Not trying to hijack or anything, but an iterating set of articles

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-the-pirates-twins-finances-reveal-about-mlbs-revenue-divide/

 

What The Pirates & Twins Finances Reveal About MLB’s Revenue Divide

That is the name of the article. This is in case the link doesn’t work. 

In the article click on the link about what the guy for DTSports had to say on Pittsburgh. The article they liked on the Twins is on the Athletic. Sometimes when an article is linked and you haven’t read a NYTimes publication for a month they let you read an Athletic article that is behind the paywall 

What BaseballAmerica missed is that DT sports said that the Pittsburgh front office had somewhere around 140 employees. (The exact number escapes me, one too many numbers to remember The Twins have 329 listed on MLB.com. The non player expenditures for the Twins is likely far more than the 171 million that Pittsburgh spent, but not near the 270 million Atlanta spent.  All of this may give some light as to why the payroll is going down. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Please allow me to disagree. In a perfect world Ryan plus Ober brings back Nick Kurtz (not happening) or Ryan brings back someone like Max Clark or Jesus Made. The Twins need players who run, field, and hit. Currently, the roster includes one player who fits the standard, our oft-injured superstar centerfielder. 

What we don't know is how other teams value the Twins players.

I actually agree with this.  My real argument was that they were unlikely to bring back players/prospects who were likely to provide more value than they would by keeping them. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I actually agree with this.  My real argument was that they were unlikely to bring back players/prospects who were likely to provide more value than they would by keeping them. 

In other words, you feel the front office doesn't possess the competence/knowledge/skills to complete transactions which return the talent for players such as Ryan, etc.?

This would place the Twins between a rock and a hard place because the talent on hand won't cut it.

[twinstalker]

18 hours ago, Nshore said:

What would Mr. Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life" do?

There's a difference between criminally greedy and inept.