Will Pohlad Family Cut Minnesota Twins Payroll Another $30 Million in 2026? Dan Hayes Thinks So

[Western SD Fan]

This is the perfect Pohlad scenario.  They can say that they are open to spending a little, as in getting the payroll to the $110-$120 million range, but never actually achieve it.  They will send Falvey and Zoll out into the ether and make phone calls on all of the quality free agents available so they can get the story out to the Star Tribune and Dan Hayes at the Athletic that they were in on this guy and that guy and every guy that makes them look like they are trying to reload and compete in 2026.  It will read like a bad Dr. Seuss book.  They already have the fanbase so crushed that they will look at it, see that they have seen this song and dance before, and go back to their lives forgetting that they were supposed to be outraged.  Falvey will get to say that they just couldn't get any impactful free agents to sign with the Twins and while the Pohlads were willing to run a higher payroll, it just didn't work out.  

As for the Twins trading Lopez or Ryan, sadly enough, Ryan seems to be the better candidate to be traded.  I think trading Lopez may draw the ire of the MLBPA to file a grievance, much like they threatened to with the A's this year.  The A's responded by signing Rooker to an extension and signing Severino to a decent contract.  The Twins may end up trading Lopez but given his return from injury and the MLBPA peering eyes, Lopez is a better trade deadline candidate for next season than an offseason trade chip.

One suggestion for the Pohlads to keep fans coming to the game.  Steal the idea from the Rockies.  Have a bar at the stadium sell cheap beer so that fans will buy cheap tickets just to get into the ballpark and drink cheap beer all game long.  It works for the Rockies as the younger people pack into the bar for the cheap beer, as it's cheaper than anywhere else in the area.  It works because the Rockies, even as bad as they are this season, will outdraw the Twins this season and I would argue that there are many more things to do in the Denver area than there is in downtown Minneapolis.

Perfect scenario for the Pohlads.  They get to slash payroll, prepare for a lockout for the 2027 season, and likely come out of the lockout with a better team valuation so they can cash out during the 2027 season.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I can't see this happening - too optimistic for me when it comes to the Pohlads.

While I think you're right that they'll move on from Lopez and Ryan - I can't see them giving $7M to Ober when he's been hurt and we have so much CHEAP young pitching supposedly ready to go.  Abel?

I also can't possibly imagine they pay 2 relievers $5M each!  They've never invested in relief pitching - I expect 2 more min salary guys here.

Lastly - They are certainly not going to pay $6M for a backup catcher.  I think we'll be lucky to keep Jeffers around, his back-up will certainly be a min salary guy.

Other than that - I think you're pretty close.  Using most of your figures and swapping out my thoughts above - my payroll prediction would be around $56,742,857

Not sure how low we need to go before MLB steps in and tells the owners they need to spend money (like they did with the A's), but I expect they'll try to find out.

The point was meant to be that payroll would be low even if they were willing to invest in a couple RPs.  I could see them investing in the BP because they will most likely transition SPs to RPs and that takes times.  Plus RPs are always good trade capital at the deadline.

The $6M catcher again reflects a max spend.  They will want someone good to handle a young staff.  I am also thinking they move Jeffers at the deadline if they have a reasonable replacement.

They might very well trade all three established SPs but I could see them holding out until the deadline with one of them.  That gives them a little more time to ready the next up prospect for the big leagues.   It will probably be determined by the return offered.

[rdehring]

With all the above talk about when/if players arrive, does the likelihood of a shutdown in 2027 come into play?

If players such as Jenkins, Culpepper, etc. come up during the 2026 season, they will be on strike/locked out in 2027?  Correct?  If they are not brought up, would they be playing at St. Paul in 2027?  Can't recall the last time, but there was minor league baseball during that shutdown.  Wasn't there?

Baseball is changing.  Not sure I like some of it, but so be it I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

If you think there might not be baseball in '27 (which I don't), and you think this team is 1-2 years from being good, then you trade Ryan and Lopez (and jettison Larnach however you can), and wait until '28 or '29......

I have no idea why they'd keep the payroll up at all at this point.

With ESPN taking over mlb.tv, there will be even less subscribers, IMO.

Where is the money coming from to have a decent payroll? Why do we think they can compete next year? Do we think there is a full season in '27?

[rdehring]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you think there might not be baseball in '27 (which I don't), and you think this team is 1-2 years from being good, then you trade Ryan and Lopez (and jettison Larnach however you can), and wait until '28 or '29......

I have no idea why they'd keep the payroll up at all at this point.

With ESPN taking over mlb.tv, there will be even less subscribers, IMO.

Where is the money coming from to have a decent payroll? Why do we think they can compete next year? Do we think there is a full season in '27?

Debated Mike whether to give you a 'like' or the 'sad.'  Did the like but the situation with the Twins is just too bloody sad.  Especially for us old guys that don't have that many more seasons to enjoy.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Debated Mike whether to give you a 'like' or the 'sad.'  Did the like but the situation with the Twins is just too bloody sad.  Especially for us old guys that don't have that many more seasons to enjoy.

I mean, it makes me sad too! I'm 61, so likely have a few more years.....

[karcherd]

Regardless of the payroll, we do not have a front office that knows how to build a winner.  They can't develop position players, have had more luck with pitchers.  They don't know how to allocate the resources given to them efficiently, they paid Gallo $11m when no one else was offering him anything near that.

Yes the Pohlads deserve everything coming to them but the biggest failing is not hiring a front office that is in alignment with their goals and build a team within the parameters given.  This is what other teams do like Milwaukee and Cleveland.  Hire someone with baseball experience that knows how to do develop a plan of what the roster should look like and develop the players accordingly and then hire a new manager.

[P Meyer]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

A few of the players will be back but if the roster still contains most of the current group all hope for the franchise is lost. There must be a half dozen transactions to change the team dynamics. Slow, defensively challenged players who cannot hit don't need more experience. They need new uniforms. I expect major changes. That is my last hope.

Jeffers yes, maybe add another C

I could see them bringing back Clemens at 1B

Keaschall, Lee, and Lewis...return. 

Buxton, Wallner, and Kiersey return. Probably Outman and Fitzgerald as well.

If they trade some combination of Lopez, Ober and Ryan, they will just move up pitchers they already have.

The bullpen will likely see some adds, but they could just reset some of the AAA guys like Raya to a relief role.

Larnach might get moved but again, I think there are options they will want to move up vs adding a vet, 

[The Great Hambino]

59 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

From everything I've heard - Joe wants to win.  Problem is he only gets one vote, and the rest of the family really doesn't care about on-field performance much.

I don't know if we've seen a single substantive action taken by Joe since the right-sizing that suggests a desire to win.  Unless you count open letters as a substantive action.

Now, whether Joe is lying about wanting to win, or telling the truth but getting overruled by his uncles, or telling the truth but simply grossly incompetent, I don't know.  But I'm done listening to anything he or anyone else in ownership has to say. 

Show me you want to win or shut up and enjoy pretending to be a grownup playing with grandpa's expensive toy.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is a projected payroll for next year.  Of course, we have to make some assumptions.  I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will.  Larnach is traded as well.  This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each.  Correa's $10M is included.

There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll.  Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role.  The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role.  Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026.

1	Bailey Ober	7,000,000
2	Zebby Matthews	820,000
3	Taj Bradley	820,000
4	David Festa	820,000
5	SWR	820,000
	Relief Pitchers
6	Cole Sands	820,000
7	LH Free Agent	5,000,000
8	RH Free Agent	5,000,000
9	Michael Tonkin	1,750,000
10	Justin Topa	1,750,000
11	Travis Adams	820,000
12	Andrew Morris	820,000
13	Funderburk	820,000
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000
15	Cardenas  /  Trade  /  FA	6,000,000
	Infielders
1B	Fedko / Julien / Sabato	820,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	820,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	820,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	820,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	820,000
22	Kyler Fedko	820,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,200,000
	Outfielders
24	Wallner  >>> Jenkins	820,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857
26	Roden  >>> Gonzalez or Erod	820,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	76,462,857

I understand the 100M payroll prediction but I'm optimistic that there's no need to trade Lopez or Ryan to get there, or Ober for that matter. I get to a 100M payroll including the 10M to Correa without trading Ryan, Lopez, Ober, or Jeffers and giving the latter 3 the likely arb raises. The only person I trade is Larnach. I also bring in 1 FA Bullpen arm at 5M (or that can be two at 2.5M like Coloumbe and another) and 1 FA 1B/DH at 10M (or 3 and 12, just a total of 15). I also use two of Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Abel in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen.  I wind up with 15 (!) 820K minimum(ish) salaried players. 2 of the above 5 are in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen with the other 2 starting in AAA as depth, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, and Ohl are in the bullpen, Cardenas is the #2 C, Keaschall, Lee, two of Clemens, Julien, Fitzgerald and Eeles in the IF on the bench, or Culpepper if he's ready, and Wallner, Outman, Martin and one of Roden/Fedko/Gonzalez/etc. in the OF. Outman will be on the team - he is Buxton's backup and that's why they traded for him. So, I spend 77.5M on vets, 12.3 M on minimum salaried guys, and 10M on Correa and I'm at 99.8M. I actually think that this or something like it may be the plan. With that rotation and the right FA in the bullpen, we may have enough pitching to compete. The hard part will be scoring runs. Her's the roster:

Rotation

Lopez              21.5M

Ryan                7.5M

Ober                4.5M

Matthews        820K

Festa/SWR      820K

Bullpen

Sands              820K

Tonkin             1.75M

Topa                1.75M

Funderburk     820K

Adams             820K

Ohl                  820K

FA                   5M

Festa/SWR      820K

Catchers

Jeffers             7.5M

Cardenas         820K

IF

Keaschall        820K

Lewis              3M

Lee                  820K

Clemens/Julien820k

FA 1B/DH       10M

Fitz/Eeles        820K

OF

Wallner           820K

Buxton            15M

Outman           820K

Martin             820K

Roden/Fedko  820K

 

Correa             10M

Total           99.8M     

This looks like a rebuilding roster to me. Add another 10M to get a good closer and the pitching may be there. Add another 10M to get a good hitting OF and the lineup starts to look interesting. This is doable. 

[P Meyer]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you think there might not be baseball in '27 (which I don't), and you think this team is 1-2 years from being good, then you trade Ryan and Lopez (and jettison Larnach however you can), and wait until '28 or '29......

I have no idea why they'd keep the payroll up at all at this point.

With ESPN taking over mlb.tv, there will be even less subscribers, IMO.

Where is the money coming from to have a decent payroll? Why do we think they can compete next year? Do we think there is a full season in '27?

This team is not competing until it is sold. In it's current form, the Twins are back to the trade, develop, years of controllable years, trade cycle. 

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see any way Larnach is on this roster next year. He's the definition of replacement level. They can get that from one of the non-Kiersey guys in the minors (or Outman / Roden). 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Doug Y said:

If they trade Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, it’s a 3-4 year rebuild. The Pohlad’s are terrible owners, but don’t you think it’s about time for a salary floor and salary cap?

The Twins aren't terrible for salary cap reasons. They're bad because of gross mismanagement. How does a salary cap change that? 

There will not be a salary cap come 2028, and there shouldn't be a salary cap. Fans that clamor for one are just doing the billionaire owners job for them. 

[P Meyer]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't see any way Larnach is on this roster next year. He's the definition of replacement level. They can get that from one of the non-Kiersey guys in the minors (or Outman / Roden). 

It probably depends if they feel like they have someone to bring up. 

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Does anyone seriously think they did what they did at the deadline for baseball reasons?

Yes. 100%. 

The only trade the Pohalds seemingly had ANY input on was Correa, and that makes sense because it required a significant financial commitment from the Twins going forward. This DOES NOT mean, like so many seem to speculate, that the trade was forced by the Pohlads. 

[In My La Z boy]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't see any way Larnach is on this roster next year. He's the definition of replacement level. They can get that from one of the non-Kiersey guys in the minors (or Outman / Roden). 

IDK. This front office is obsessed with left handed hitting corner outfielders. We just traded for 2 more in Outman & Roden. It never ends.

[The Great Hambino]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I understand the 100M payroll prediction but I'm optimistic that there's no need to trade Lopez or Ryan to get there, or Ober for that matter. I get to a 100M payroll including the 10M to Correa without trading Ryan, Lopez, Ober, or Jeffers and giving the latter 3 the likely arb raises. The only person I trade is Larnach. I also bring in 1 FA Bullpen arm at 5M (or that can be two at 2.5M like Coloumbe and another) and 1 FA 1B/DH at 10M (or 3 and 12, just a total of 15). I also use two of Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Abel in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen.  I wind up with 15 (!) 820K minimum(ish) salaried players. 2 of the above 5 are in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen with the other 2 starting in AAA as depth, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, and Ohl are in the bullpen, Cardenas is the #2 C, Keaschall, Lee, two of Clemens, Julien, Fitzgerald and Eeles in the IF on the bench, or Culpepper if he's ready, and Wallner, Outman, Martin and one of Roden/Fedko/Gonzalez/etc. in the OF. Outman will be on the team - he is Buxton's backup and that's why they traded for him. So, I spend 77.5M on vets, 12.3 M on minimum salaried guys, and 10M on Correa and I'm at 99.8M. I actually think that this or something like it may be the plan. With that rotation and the right FA in the bullpen, we may have enough pitching to compete. The hard part will be scoring runs. Her's the roster:

Rotation

Lopez              21.5M

Ryan                7.5M

Ober                4.5M

Matthews        820K

Festa/SWR      820K

Bullpen

Sands              820K

Tonkin             1.75M

Topa                1.75M

Funderburk     820K

Adams             820K

Ohl                  820K

FA                   5M

Festa/SWR      820K

Catchers

Jeffers             7.5M

Cardenas         820K

IF

Keaschall        820K

Lewis              3M

Lee                  820K

Clemens/Julien820k

FA 1B/DH       10M

Fitz/Eeles        820K

OF

Wallner           820K

Buxton            15M

Outman           820K

Martin             820K

Roden/Fedko  820K

 

Correa             10M

Total           99.8M     

This looks like a rebuilding roster to me. Add another 10M to get a good closer and the pitching may be there. Add another 10M to get a good hitting OF and the lineup starts to look interesting. This is doable. 

I can appreciate you trying to be optimistic, but that is not even close to a competitive bullpen.  It's basically what the bullpen is now (which is awful) plus a $5M fee agent and the hope a failed starter can reinvent themselves on the fly. And paying market rate for a closer is one of the most unreliable investments a team can make, especially a team on a budget.

There's also one outfielder that has any business starting on a competitive team.

This is why people are advocating moving the quality starters.  Legitimate contention just isn't realistic for the duration of their contracts.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

It probably depends if they feel like they have someone to bring up. 

Outman and Roden until they bring up a legit prospect or two......they aren't paying Larnach 4 million dollars to be bad. No way.

[Major League Ready]

32 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I understand the 100M payroll prediction but I'm optimistic that there's no need to trade Lopez or Ryan to get there, or Ober for that matter. I get to a 100M payroll including the 10M to Correa without trading Ryan, Lopez, Ober, or Jeffers and giving the latter 3 the likely arb raises. The only person I trade is Larnach. I also bring in 1 FA Bullpen arm at 5M (or that can be two at 2.5M like Coloumbe and another) and 1 FA 1B/DH at 10M (or 3 and 12, just a total of 15). I also use two of Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Abel in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen.  I wind up with 15 (!) 820K minimum(ish) salaried players. 2 of the above 5 are in the rotation and 1 in the bullpen with the other 2 starting in AAA as depth, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, and Ohl are in the bullpen, Cardenas is the #2 C, Keaschall, Lee, two of Clemens, Julien, Fitzgerald and Eeles in the IF on the bench, or Culpepper if he's ready, and Wallner, Outman, Martin and one of Roden/Fedko/Gonzalez/etc. in the OF. Outman will be on the team - he is Buxton's backup and that's why they traded for him. So, I spend 77.5M on vets, 12.3 M on minimum salaried guys, and 10M on Correa and I'm at 99.8M. I actually think that this or something like it may be the plan. With that rotation and the right FA in the bullpen, we may have enough pitching to compete. The hard part will be scoring runs. Her's the roster:

Rotation

Lopez              21.5M

Ryan                7.5M

Ober                4.5M

Matthews        820K

Festa/SWR      820K

Bullpen

Sands              820K

Tonkin             1.75M

Topa                1.75M

Funderburk     820K

Adams             820K

Ohl                  820K

FA                   5M

Festa/SWR      820K

Catchers

Jeffers             7.5M

Cardenas         820K

IF

Keaschall        820K

Lewis              3M

Lee                  820K

Clemens/Julien820k

FA 1B/DH       10M

Fitz/Eeles        820K

OF

Wallner           820K

Buxton            15M

Outman           820K

Martin             820K

Roden/Fedko  820K

 

Correa             10M

Total           99.8M     

This looks like a rebuilding roster to me. Add another 10M to get a good closer and the pitching may be there. Add another 10M to get a good hitting OF and the lineup starts to look interesting. This is doable. 

I am not trying to get to a number.  Quite the opposite.  The goal should be to make moves that facilitate building a contender and the lower payroll is simply a product of that process.  You can keep Lopez and Ryan and win 75 games instead of 67-70 games but in the process you give up acquiring prospects that could eventually be critical in building a 90 win or a 95 win team.

[JBK]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I got lost in the $$ spent:

Buxton $15M ……. Lopez $21.5M…….Ryan & Jeffers at $7.5M each = $51.5M

Lewis - Ober - Larnach at $15M max. = $66.5M

Topa - Sands -Clemens at $5M total

16other guys at $800K is a total of $12.8M = $85M.

Maybe I’m missing something - a guy? Maybe you too have the same total - I didn’t see how to get there? 

My hope is they spend up to $125M and the team is filled out with a couple PEN helpers and a couple hitters, one being a Catcher…….maybe 2 Catchers if Jeffers can play 1B and be 3rd Catcher(optimal to me).

Do we think new partners threw in $400M to be bad and not generate positive ROI?…….$125M ……maybe as low as $115M. They spent $154M in ‘23.

Buxton $15M ……. Lopez $21.5M…….Ryan & Jeffers at $7.5M each = $51.5M. That actually equals $59M

[karcherd]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

but in the process you give up acquiring prospects that could eventually be critical in building a 90 win or a 95 win team.

You are making assumption this management can identify such players and develop them.  Their track record is very sub par in getting trade returns that are productive players.  Ryan is the exception and not the rule.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, JBK said:

Buxton $15M ……. Lopez $21.5M…….Ryan & Jeffers at $7.5M each = $51.5M. That actually equals $59M

Never do math in public. 

[jmlease1]

6 minutes ago, JBK said:

Buxton $15M ……. Lopez $21.5M…….Ryan & Jeffers at $7.5M each = $51.5M. That actually equals $59M

Nope.

• Buxton $15M
• Lopez $21.5M
• Ryan $7.5M
• Jeffers $7.5M

That's $51.5M total for 4 players. To get to $59M you'd need one more guy at $7.5M

[Otaknam]

Cutting payroll to $100 million would be a slap in the face to every fan, especially after we paid for Target Field, which was supposed to provide the revenue to be competitive long term with the other teams. Imagine the meager attendance if they actually made such a bad business decision, as fans would be very upset. Why would anyone go to a team that is  shell of its former self? I like baseball, but not THAT much!

[Larry Janisewski]

6 hours ago, Glorybound said:

On the radio broadcast yesterday the Diamond Player of the game was a five year old that caught a foul ball. Maybe Falvey can get his phone number. He probably would play for just some candy. Well maybe throw in a hot dog and beer for his mom and dad. Likely would be more entertaining than this group of wanderers.

But the question is, can he hit?? As most Twins cannot. When the A's roll out 3 pitchers yesterday with ERA's over 4.00 and the Twins collect 5 hits, that isn't going to get it done. And we have seen it over and over again.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not trying to get to a number.  Quite the opposite.  The goal should be to make moves that facilitate building a contender and the lower payroll is simply a product of that process.  You can keep Lopez and Ryan and win 75 games instead of 67-70 games but in the process you give up acquiring prospects that could eventually be critical in building a 90 win or a 95 win team.

I would agree with this if Lopez and Ryan were in their mid-30s and likely to head down over time, but Lopez just turned 29 and Ryan will turn 30 on September 1. Lopez is signed for a team friendly number through his age 31 season (2027).  Ryan has 2 arb years left (also thru 2027) and will be 32 when he hits FA. These are the type of guys you try to trade FOR, not the guys you trade. Even if you don't think this team will be competitive until 2028 or later, you keep these guys at least until mid season next year when their trade value will be maximized and trade them if the team stinks because the young players aren't any good. That way you give your young players a cornerstone to start next year with starting pitchers that will keep the team in 2 games out of every 5. You need that to develop young players; you can't have a team without any established pitchers that gets blown out every night because then the young guys don't develop. Why not? Because then they don't play in high stress situations where they learn the little things that win and lose games. It not only makes financial sense to keep both; it makes baseball sense.   

Ober's a tougher case. He's the same age as Ryan and also has 2 arb years left, not anywhere near as good, and much more replaceable by a Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, Bradley, etc. He has less trade value; a whole lot less. I would check the market on him. If he alone or with a good A ball guy can fetch a high upside AA hitter (particularly a catcher) or a blocked guy who's tearing up AAA, I'd really think about pulling the trigger much as I hate to give up a competent mid rotation starter who is less than $6M a year. Those guys are very hard to find. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Don't look now but perennial All-Star and two-time Hall of Fame inductee Luke Keaschall is OPSing .604 in his last ten games.  Buckle up and strap in - 2026 will be a bumpy ride.

By next week someone here will be ready to cut him and bring up Payton Eeles. Heck, someone might have already said that and I missed it.

[Brandon27]

Yes I still say buxton surprises everyone and waves his no trade clause or they force him to do it and  who going to stay around for a rebuild that's probably take along time 

[weitz41]

I expect more trades this offseason. Yes, I expect payroll to drop in that 30-mil range. 

If your forward thinking and planning on a 2027 lockout you part with your guys that won't be here in 2028. You should be able to rebuild the BP and starting rotation by then with mostly homegrown players. Most of the guys they traded for are AA or higher so 1-2 seasons away. This offseason you try to extend Ryan or Ober. Trade Lopez, one of Ryan/Ober, Larnach, probably Wallner and maybe even Lewis.

Set to simmer and hope 50% of the guys drafted and traded for work out. 2028 the window cracks open.

Something I've been wondering about. Recent drafts seem to have the team focusing on hit tool and fielding in the 1st 3-4 rounds. Falvey was focused on power in his 1st few drafts. MAYBE this is more of a philosophy change. MAYBE this is more of a switch from plodding sluggers to athletes. Going from Bomba squad to idk..big red machine?

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

I can appreciate you trying to be optimistic, but that is not even close to a competitive bullpen.  It's basically what the bullpen is now (which is awful) plus a $5M fee agent and the hope a failed starter can reinvent themselves on the fly. And paying market rate for a closer is one of the most unreliable investments a team can make, especially a team on a budget.

There's also one outfielder that has any business starting on a competitive team.

This is why people are advocating moving the quality starters.  Legitimate contention just isn't realistic for the duration of their contracts.

I disagree but not completely, which is why I mentioned that another $10m in addition to the $5m already allocated might get us either a quality BP piece or a middle of the order bat. I think both Buxton and Wallner are starting MLB OFs.  I agree the rest should be 4th, 5th or AAA OFs  (although I live in LA and Outman may be better than you think), but I think it's worth half a season to see if Gonzalez, Jenkins, or Emma (or Outman or Martin) can hit the ground running and/or be a MLB caliber starting OF. The BP is a complete crapshoot.  Who knows who will be available. Coulombe is a FA that has pitched poorly for Texas so he might want to come back, there may not be room for Stewart on the Dodgers' 40 man so he might be available, and there are always guys out there to pick up. A bullpen is the one thing you can build on the fly for not a lot of cash. The big hole is the closer.  I would actually try Festa there if only because the Grim Reaper would be a cool closer moniker. Seriously though, I think Festa could be an awesome closer and I think SWR's profile and pitch mix screams stater turned late inning reliever whose 92 mph heater now hits 95 and he has the breaking stuff to go with it. I see SWR as a better version of Jax.

I understand why people want to move Lopez and Ryan, I just don't think it works if the rest of the team is young guys learning their way. You have to have something that keeps the games competitive if you want the young guys to learn - they need to be put in crucial late inning situations to get better. That 8th and 9th inning at bat isn't as instructive if you're down 8-3 as it is in a tie game, that 7th and 8th inning relief assignments not as helpful if you're down 3 or 4 (or 5 or 6) as with a small lead or in a tie game, and that start is more pressure packed and instructive if the team is around .500 and being mentioned in the wild card race as it is if you're 10 games under .500, etc. Players develop in competitive situations more quickly and better than on uncompetitive teams. Keeping Lopez and Ryan makes it much more likely we will be in competitive situations and I think that would really help speed up the development and frankly the evaluation of guys like Keaschall, Wallner, Lee, Lewis, Mathews, SWR, Adams, Ohl, etc. Lots of guys can play well on a team that is out of it by May, just look at Brent Rooker. We need guys that can play well when the games matter and you don't develop those guys if the starting pitching is so bad that the games never matter.