This Joe Ryan Trade With Chicago Cubs Could Dramatically Alter Short- and Long-Term Outlook of Both Organizations

[Heiny]

I don't like the idea of trading Ryan, but I think it may be wise if you could get enough for him.  Unless the Twins are going to make a serious offer to extend him.  Ballesteros and Wiggins is definately not enough.  I would think that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and possiby others (teams who could afford to make a good offer for extension) could and will offer more.  Enough?  I don't know about that, but the Cubs tandem wouldn't cut the mustard.  I don't see it being done without probably 4 high prospects.

[twinstalker]

 

Quote

• Chicago receives: right-handed starting pitcher Joe Ryan
• Minnesota receives: catching/first base prospect Moisés Ballesteros, right-handed pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins

 

It would really hurt emotionally to do this deal, but it's the right names.  I haven't read the comments, but as long as no one threw the name Caissie in there, they're probably fine.  I did see one that mentioned getting these two for a reliever (as hope, not expectation), but I think Ballesteros is too good to not get a lot more. Although we gave up Wilson Ramos for a crappy reliever, which is really a partial answer to "why can't we have good things?"

Wiggins has a special upside he probably won't hit as a starter, but he might.  Ballesteros is ready, and if he can field, he's our full-time 1B.  I'd really try for Ballesteros with one of our stud relievers and maybe some other stuff.  Like EmRod.  Maybe Duran+EmRod for Ballesteros and Wiggins!  Problem is that the Cubs have already been enduring their own EmRod with Owen Caissie, so I doubt they get fooled again.

[twinstalker]

19 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I don't like the idea of trading Ryan, but I think it may be wise if you could get enough for him.  Unless the Twins are going to make a serious offer to extend him.  Ballesteros and Wiggins is definately not enough.  I would think that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and possiby others (teams who could afford to make a good offer for extension) could and will offer more.  Enough?  I don't know about that, but the Cubs tandem wouldn't cut the mustard.  I don't see it being done without probably 4 high prospects.

You might be right that it's not enough for Ryan, but it's the right big names.  The top prospects I know otherwise are actually incredibly overrated (Caissie, Alcantara) or are probably too much to throw our way (Rojas, Birdsell).  I worry the Twins have no ability to identify low minors hitters, an exercise thoroughly complicated by the Arizona Complex Bandboxes the Cubs and others play in/on.  But I do think they could find a pitcher or two.

[tony&rodney]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This idea that trading one player means they can't compete for two years just blows my mind.....

Exactly. Perhaps someone needs to tell Milwaukee (Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams) about that rule.

[bjorks]

The Sheriff is pitching himself out of MN

[Guest]

"Blown away"?  I'm not.

[DocBauer]

Falvey really hasn't changed his stance. He's always been clear that "you take the call". That being said, a resounding NO from me on this package. It would have to be bigger/better to move him.

#1] Ryan has emerged as a solid #1 starter. At worst he's a great #2 who often throws like a #1. He, Lopez, and Ober form a really good 1-3 for 2026 as well. After that, it's open auditions for the young arms for the final 2 spots. No Ryan means you just short changed your entire rotation over night

2] IF you move Ryan, or any of the top 3, you do it in the offseason where the Twins, and everyone else, are taking time to build for 2026. With 2yrs of control for all 3 of them, their value is not going to go down. It also provides the rest of the season to roll through Matthews, Festa, and SWR to see how much they grow, as well as more time for some MILB arms to continue to grow and develop. The "view" of ALL the young arms is different come the offseason.

3] The Twins problem is not the rotation, or the pen, it's the offense. There's a lot of better, more athletic talent position player wise really close. And again, the pitching isn't the problem.

4] How can we possibly know at this point if the proposed new ownership group won't go ahead and sign Ryan to an extension?

I WOULD trade the impending FA for the very best deals I can find. I'd be targeting young/young-ish 4th OF and 1B that might currently be blocked from a regular gig. And I'd be targeting talented arms that have lost a little shine to their prospect status that might be great fits as pen conversions. You won't get it all, but that's what I'd be targeting. 

There's been speculation about Duran or Jax as pen options to trade. But again, like Ryan, these aren't rental arms due for some A ball return flier. These are TOP arms with 2yrs of control. And even a quality pen arm is generally easier to replace than a top of the rotation SP. So I'd still say, unless blown away, I'd concentrate on the impending FA and hold on to everyone else until the offseason.

I'd make Coulombe a priority re-sign in the offseason to play the same role in 2026 as he has now, even at age 35. And I'd make a LHRP who can be more of a 7-8 inning arm a priority. 

After that, it's all about tweaking the position roster/lineup. How fast/hard do we/can we push and count on Keaschall, Rodriguez, Culpepper, and eventually Jenkins? Is there any chance Schobel gets healthy and finishes his AAA strong enough, or Eeles...still working his way back from his cartilage surgery...can possibly contribute in 2026? What about Gonzalez continuing to rake and getting AAA time to help prepare himself for next year as well?

IF the best way to tweak the existing roster for 2026 is to move someone in the offseason, that makes way more sense to me. You can have a larger, wide screen shot of your entire system at that point. 

Again, I rather like the way the Brewers aren't afraid to take some chances on players. But the pitching isn't the problem. Lewis, Correa, and Wallner getting back to their "normal" selves is part of the answer. Lee further developing is part of the answer. Adding more overall athleticism to the roster is the next step. Finding a 1B SOMEWHERE, even internally, who can provide daily production is yet another part of the equation. 

Trade the impending FA for best value, and make some smart targets/decisions there. 

Pick up the phone because you just never known if you're blown away by someone.

But Ryan is borderline untouchable to me at this point.

[Doctor Gast]

Yeah, it'd completely change the outlook for both team if the Twins trade Ryan to the Cubs. Cubs would vastly improve & Twins would vastly look worse.

[chpettit19]

The Twins shouldn't be "shopping" or "selling" Ryan, but the Twins should absolutely be listening on him. And literally everyone else. And I mean everyone. 100% of the organization. Including Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, everyone they just drafted, the hot dog folks, the ticket people, everyone. THIS TEAM ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH! And you don't improve your less than good enough team by trading away the bad parts for good parts. The other teams aren't that dumb. You're not turning the expiring contracts into guys that are going to make the 2026 and 2027 teams (the teams that you control your pitching for) good. It's going to take a trade that hurts to do that. You're going to have to move valuable pieces for that. It doesn't have to be at this deadline, but it better be before 2026 if you want next year's team to be better than the last 2 iterations.

Or throw out a different plan. And if it includes the guys in the minors coming up and being more or less immediate saviors, I sure hope you haven't been like most of us here and ripping on the Twins ability to develop position players. Because I think that'd be a bit of a silly plan. "Hey, these guys are terrible at developing position players and it's why they're terrible and we should fire them. Don't trade Ryan! The position player prospects these guys I want fired are developing are almost here to save the day before he walks for just a comp pick so it'll be great in 2026!" There's no money. Trading Castro isn't bringing a great shot at difference making talent. How do you improve upon the position player group without trading real pieces?

2 more years of mediocre to bad teams and then losing these pitchers for 5 comp picks is such a significantly worse outcome. The smart, winning baseball move is to trade some of the pitching. Festa, SWR, Zebby, Varland, Sands, Raya, Lewis, Culpepper, Prielipp, Adams, et al are going to have to step up and fill in. It doesn't have to be Ryan, but it has to be somebody. How else are you going to improve? Jobu blesses the other guys.

But, no, this deal is not nearly enough.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not see a package strong enough right now to offset his value (unless the Twins are 100% convinced they will not be able to extend him before FA).

I wouldn't do the deal as suggested even if they can't extend him. Let's face it, if he has a couple more strong years, the Twins will be hard pressed to afford him. That said, there is plenty of time to unload him next year if circumstances warrant. For that matter, they may just let it ride, count on 2027 to be the year of emergence of Jenkins and some of the other up and comers, with a real shot at making some noise.

Look at Detroit - there was a lot of chatter about them trading Skubal a couple of years ago. I'm sure they're glad they didn't pull that trigger.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

There isn't a viable fanbase left. It's time for a complete overhaul and a championship run later on. Ryan's stock will never be higher, and he can do nothing to help 2026 that he hasn't already done this year.

I get that (and made the same point on another thread about his stock never being higher). That said, just how good he has been this year - it's really, really good, and there isn't anything that suggests it is smoke and mirrors. Hence two more years of this? Two prospects, no way.

Here are stats for 2025 for two American League starting pitchers:

#1 10-4, 4.5 WAR, 2.63 ERA, 0.903 WHIP.
#2 10-3, 4.9 WAR, 2.19 ERA, 0.815 WHIP.

Number two is the AL reigning CYA winner, Tarik Skubal. Number one is Joe Ryan. While Skubal leads in each category, it's pretty darn close.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

For that matter, they may just let it ride, count on 2027 to be the year of emergence of Jenkins and some of the other up and comers, with a real shot at making some noise.

I get what you're saying, but no. We've played that song already, multiple times. the Twins aren't just a player away, and even if they were, their prospects typically just fizzle at the big league level. It's time to clean house.

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I get what you're saying, but no. We've played that song already, multiple times. the Twins aren't just a player away, and even if they were, their prospects typically just fizzle at the big league level. It's time to clean house.

Why would 'cleaning house' lead to any greater expectation of success? The biggest problem that the Twins (and probably 20 of 30 MLB teams) face is the lack of a salary cap. Joe Ryan is an example: he's a great pitcher that they made into one, and in two years, he will sign for an ungodly amount of money with the Yankees-Mets-Red Sox-Phillies-Dodgers etc. So, teams like the Twins have to hope against hope that prospects they acquire for the stud players they already have will meet expectations. 

Hello? They don't all that often - and it isn't just a problem with the Twins. If you line up the records of all MLB teams in the last (pick a number) 5 or 10 years, the Twins are far from the developmental basket case some make them out to be. 

[terrydactyls]

8 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

“Ryan has blossomed into an ace with Minnesota this season”

And he has 2+ years of control.  

That is exactly the kind of pitcher we have been searching for since Johan. Why on earth would we trade him now?  I agree with @Fire Dan Gladden.  If you are going to do that, you may as well blow up the whole team and sell everybody with any value.  If we are not planning to compete in 2026 OR 2027 (or after, because that’s when a bunch of our best players hit free agency), then blow it up.  Otherwise, hang on to Joe Ryan.  He is the single most valuable chip that you have right now — much more valuable than Duran or Jax.  The return would need to be ridiculous.  

 

If Ryan is the "single most valuable chip" that the Twins have, then now should be the time time to trade him.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Few people want to trade Ryan, but many people are open to a transaction that actually holds hope for improving the team. So folks are guessing, just like those who write the articles. One also must consider that we have no idea how other teams view the players or whether a potential reasonable deal cannot be completed because of cautious GMs/POBOs.

Is there a player you see as a fair trade for Ryan?

At worst, Ryan is a top 15 SP in baseball right now. They are unicorns. You do not get them very often. Since 2000, the Twins have had Santana, Gray, Lopez, and Ryan in that category (maybe Barrios).

2 more cheap years of him? I truly do not know what an equitable package would look like. Two top 5 prospects and a couple of young mlb guys that fill the Twins holes? Still doesn't feel like enough...

[Wedman13]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If Ryan is the "single most valuable chip" that the Twins have, then now should be the time time to trade him.  

Somewhat agree.  Go all in or all out.  If Falvey believes we're 1 or 2 bats away from being a World Series Champ, keep Ryan, Duran, Jax and add 2 field players.  (Ownership may not approve).  If he doesn't believe that, or ownership won't spend to replace a Larnach, Wallner, etc then sell on all 3 arms, bottom out, and re-tool.  Being in the middle is just a waste of everyone's time...

[LeatherAntenna]

16 hours ago, JBK said:

Trading Joe would destroy what fanbase they have left.

The first Twin ace since Santana. The last couple of fans left should like this move.

[Twins reserve]

Many have mentioned being blow away by a trade offer. Trading Ryan, Duran and Coulombe to Toronto for their top 5+ pitching prospects. This will infuse both L/R talent at varying levels. Allowing the mgt to concentrate on bolstering our hitting, speed and defense; probably in that order?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If Ryan is the "single most valuable chip" that the Twins have, then now should be the time time to trade him.  

Why?  Don’t you want him in the rotation for the next 2 years?  There are two more off-seasons and two more trade deadlines to trade Ryan.  It’s premature to do it now. 

[thelanges5]

Trade the expiring contracts. Trade one of Jax or Duran even. I don’t trust this FO to make a Ryan level trade, there is too much at stake. 

[Parfigliano]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This idea that trading one player means they can't compete for two years just blows my mind.....

Can't compete with Ryan.  Can't compete without him.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Why?  Don’t you want him in the rotation for the next 2 years?  There are two more off-seasons and two more trade deadlines to trade Ryan.  It’s premature to do it now. 

And the "value" decreases as the next two Years go by.

[Steve Lein]

This framework of a deal is what I'd expect to get for Jax.

Not quite enough for Duran in my opinion, and not even close to enough for Ryan.

When the Twins traded Jose Berrios, a worse pitcher than Ryan, they received the at the time #22 Prospect in baseball (Austin Martin) and the #86 Prospect (Simeon Woods Richardson), per MLBPipeline.

Bellesteros currently ranks #49, and Wiggins #93. 

My framework to trade Ryan to the Cubs would be Owen Cassie (#38), Wiggins (#93), and either Ryan Gallagher or Brandon Birdsell (who the Twins had actually drafted, but didn't sign), at a MINIMUM.

Edit: Heck, now that I think even more about it, Ryan has an extra year of control than Berrios did. So it's now Cassie, Bellesteros, Wiggins, and Gallagher or Birdsell. 

So I guess what I'm saying is I doubt Ryan gets traded.

The team I'd be looking into if they did want to trade Ryan, would be the Philadelphia Phillies. I'd want Andrew Painter the most, but one of Aiden Miller or Justin Crawford, Eduardo Tait, and Mick Abel is a good framework, too.

Edited July 24, 2025 by Steve Lein

[jorgenswest]

Does anyone wonder why Caissie isn’t playing over Ian Happ for the Cubs right now? This is his second year at AAA so he has had plenty of AAA plate appearances to be ready. It has to be that the Cubs don’t see him as an upgrade to Happ. Perhaps they don’t want to expose his weaknesses to major league pitchers and drive down his trade value. Has Matt Bush dropped in value after outperforming Caissie in AAA but the  struggling in the majors? Does anyone wonder why his strikeout rate increased in his second year at the level? It seems like it should drop with more experience.

Caissie has a wRC+ of 142 this year. That is encouraging. It is on par with Gasper and Martin who have a 144 wRC+ for St. Paul. He is a right fielder that looks pretty similar to Matt Wallner to me. At this point his age is in his favor but there needs to be growth and the strikeout rate hasn’t improved. It is really hard to fix strikeouts and major league pitchers are going to take advantage of that swing and miss.

I am listening on Jax but the Cubs need a better headliner for Ryan or Duran.

[Dan In Real Life]

Yeah, no. Where the Twins are at with the fan base relationship, they NEED to get better for 2026, not 2028. I'm ready to let go of my 2025 expectations. It is what it is. The expiring contract vets are not coming back. Get what you can for them. (An ownership serious about contending would find a way to re-sign Castro and Bader while continuing to build. BUT if you can get talent that makes the team better for 2026, fire away even with those two). Ryan is one of the few cheap controllable players that should be all but untouchable. Who are the others? Jax and Duran? Maybe.

(Duran is an interesting case. He's not quite Ryan-level of necessity to keep, but he's close. I'm preparing myself for a Duran trade. Not thrilled with it. AND his value will never be higher than it is Right. Now. If they can truly exploit that -- again with 2026 in mind -- do it)

I don't think anyone else is on that list. But they can't afford to rebuild. The ONLY goal for this trade deadline is making them a better team for 2026.

I can't fathom any Joe Ryan trade that makes them better in 2026.

[farmerguychris]

We've dreamed of having a controllable pitcher like Ryan since Santana - Why would we trade him for some prospects that 'might' work out.  Would be really displeased if they made this move.  Total rebuilds seldom work and just lead to multiple years of below .500 baseball.  Would prefer to reload instead of rebuild.  If going to sell - trade your pending FA (try to keep Bader?) for some AAA bats and try again next year.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

That last sentence is the key.  I'd prefer we hand him a nice contract extension.  But will we?

And if we won't.....well then doesn't this option have to at least be considered?

If the Twins are 100% convinced Ryan will be gone after two years, then I agree the option needs to be considered. When to pull that trigger is a great question. Do the Twins think they could be a playoff team next year? (No need to open that can of comment worms.) If they believe they are close, then you wait. If not, you listen to offers

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If that's what they get for Ryan, I'm done with the Twins until their sold and the entire front office is gutted. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

And the "value" decreases as the next two Years go by.

That assumes that you will receive another year of “value” for each year he has left under team control.  I can’t imagine that’s true.  If he were to be a free agent at the end of the season, you would trade him for one really good prospect and a filler.  If he had one plus year you would get at least what has been proposed.  The return suggested here doesn’t even touch the extra year of value that is there.

Assuming the value decreases by each year that goes by is logical and true.  However, it also assumes that you have no use for the value provided by a #1 type pitcher.  I disagree with this assumption.  I want to be competitive and he is the closest thing to a sure thing starter we have right now.  

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

That assumes that you will receive another year of “value” for each year he has left under team control.  I can’t imagine that’s true.  If he were to be a free agent at the end of the season, you would trade him for one really good prospect and a filler.  If he had one plus year you would get at least what has been proposed.  The return suggested here doesn’t even touch the extra year of value that is there.

Assuming the value decreases by each year that goes by is logical and true.  However, it also assumes that you have no use for the value provided by a #1 type pitcher.  I disagree with this assumption.  I want to be competitive and he is the closest thing to a sure thing starter we have right now.  

That is your assumption.  Plus it has nothing to do with the value of the player as a trade chip.