Twins Slugger Matt Wallner Fighting Through First Real Slump

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of =Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The frustration is palpable for Matt Wallner. He's screaming silently into his helmet during his customary two-strike timeouts. He's scowling as he walks back to the dugout following fruitless at-bats. He's in a major slump, and he knows it. For the 27-year-old slugger, it's a surprisingly unfamiliar feeling.

Prolonged slumps are usually part-and-parcel for a low-contact, high-strikeout power bat like Wallner. Theoretically, you're going to have periods where balls in play aren't falling in while the strikeouts continue to mount, leading to glaring droughts in production. It's the kind of thing that drove fans mad with Miguel Sanó, despite his productive overall track record. But Wallner has been mostly able to steer clear of the extended dry spells. Minor-league pitchers could never suppress him for long, as he built up a .905 OPS in the Twins system. In the majors, Wallner was pretty steady through his first 175 or so games, even though one of his few very short slumps (2-for-25 to open the 2024 campaign) earned him banishment to the minors for half the season.

By the time he returned from a rare injured list stint earlier this season, Wallner had established himself as one of the very best hitters in baseball during his young career, producing at the level of perennial MVP contenders. You don't accomplish that if you're prone to deep slumps. Wallner kept them at bay, and kept mashing. But since coming off the IL in late May, the right fielder has fallen into unfamiliar territory: he's been in the pits for about a month now.

Wallner had an .847 OPS when he got hurt and he raised it to .896 by homering four times in his first eight games back. There was certainly no sign then that anything was amiss. But in 24 games since, he is slashing just .147/.217/.320 with three homers. His overall numbers have sagged to the level of a merely average big-league batter.

You might assume the strikeouts spiked out of control, but that's not really the case. Wallner has struck out 27 times in 83 plate appearances during this stretch (33%), which is exactly in line with his career norm. Instead, his batted-ball luck has betrayed him, as Wallner's .153 BABIP since coming off the IL is dead last among 186 MLB hitters. 

It's a major reality shift for a player who, prior to the injury, had the fifth-highest BABIP among all MLB hitters (.361) since he debuted in September of 2022. That wasn't by accident: Wallner crushed the ball and got rewarded for it, much like the leader on that list Aaron Judge (.375 BABIP). By this same token, Wallner's extreme drop-off in outcomes for the past month-plus has not been by accident; he's making much lower-quality contact and hitting into a lot more easy outs. Anecdotally, it seems like opposing pitchers are focusing less on trying to get him to swing and miss, and more on getting him to put the ball in play weakly, thus neutralizing Wallner's greatest strength. Whatever the interplay, can he adjust?

Wallner is in no danger of being demoted to the minors for this slump. The Twins know that getting him back on his game holds the key to unlocking the much-improved second half they need as a team. They need him to get right in the big-league crucible, this time.

Every great hitter faces a reckoning at some point: a stretch where the formula that once made them dominant no longer yields results. For Wallner, this is that moment. He’s not striking out more than usual, but the quality of contact just isn’t there, and opposing pitchers appear to be exploiting it. Whether it’s a matter of timing, mechanics, approach, or all of the above, Wallner now finds himself in unfamiliar waters: not just in a slump, but in search of a counterpunch. The Twins are betting he’ll find it soon, because their ceiling in the second half may hinge on it.

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For more on Wallner's slump and the underpinnings of his decreased batted-ball production, check out Matt Trueblood's piece on Wallner's swing plane, from June.

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[DaveW44]

I’d stop short of calling the start of Wallner’s career “torrid.” I’d also stop short of saying he had established himself as in of the very best hitters in baseball. 
he’s had some good streaks and he’s had some awful streaks. He’s a work in progress and the remainder of this season might show us what to expect from Wallner in the future, and if he be counted on to be a regular contributor in the lineup going forward. 

[Guest]

Wallner's first big slump was his start to the '24 season that was so bad he spent the next couple months at St. Paul.  Wallner needs to hit the film room and relearn what he learned at AAA last year.

[FlyingFinn]

Wallner has to figure this out. He is often a slow starter at the beginning of the season, unless he has mastered that level of baseball. Well, he had the injury, came back and was dominating AAA pitching. Many were hollering for the Twins to rush him back. He hasn't had his timing back since then. 

[mikelink45]

I would really like to see him succeed. Homegrown stars aren't that frequent. But I have been frustrated by slumps Like this. It makes me concerned about his future. I would not consider him One of the best hitters in the league, but on this team we really need him to be one of our best hitters.  

[tony&rodney]

Matt Wallner needs to become Nelson Cruz in order for him to hold off players like Jenkins or Rodriguez if he is to continue as an outfielder. Best he adapt quickly and follow Cruz as a DH masher who can perform consistently against all types of pitchers. The challenge for Wallner is formidable because, similar to the fall of Julien, it appears the pitchers have developed a book on Big Matt. Baseball is tough.

[Doctor Gast]

17 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wallner has to figure this out. He is often a slow starter at the beginning of the season, unless he has mastered that level of baseball. Well, he had the injury, came back and was dominating AAA pitching. Many were hollering for the Twins to rush him back. He hasn't had his timing back since then. 

IMO, there was no rush to bring him up, the Twins were winning w/o him. I agree they should have left him in AAA and let him regain his timing and confidence. 

[MinnInPa]

he needs help ... and no one in Twins organization can figure it out.. huge liability right now.. BIG K machine in Key RBI situations and rally stopper when it counts..

[NYCTK]

34 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, there was no rush to bring him up, the Twins were winning w/o him. I agree they should have left him in AAA and let him regain his timing and confidence. 

In 27 plate appearances he had a 1.330 OPS. This wasn't like royce down in AAA. 

1 hour ago, DaveW44 said:

I’d also stop short of saying he had established himself as in of the very best hitters in baseball. 

Agreed. Someone that had established themselves as one of the best hitters wouldn't have been demoted to AAA just last season 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, there was no rush to bring him up, the Twins were winning w/o him. I agree they should have left him in AAA and let him regain his timing and confidence. 

He played 6 games in AAA, with a .320/.370/.960/1.330 with 5 homers and a double and only 5 K's in 27 plate appearances. Not really sure how much more was needed to regain timing and confidence in AAA? 

 

The statement that Wallner is/was/has been one of the better hitters in the game is ludicrous and a slap in the face to whole bunch of players that are actually the better hitters in the game. He has been pretty good in a limited role for half a season the two years prior against right handed pitchers. 

Lets not forgot he ended 24 with a .243/.333/.405/.739 month of September. (Not terrible but not great either. July was amazing in limited playing time and August was great. 

His career oWAR is 4.6, 2 players have that or more just this year, 27 had that or more last year and 23 had that in 2023. I like him and hope like heck he can become a really solid major league starter. 

[BrokenCompass]

Wallner's bringing the team down, and so is Lewis. 

Twins didn't need these two players to have fantastic years - they just needed them to provide solid reliable contributions. They've miserably failed, to see two of the top prospects absolutely crash and burn has been incredibly deflating. 

[Western SD Fan]

59 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Agreed. Someone that had established themselves as one of the best hitters wouldn't have been demoted to AAA just last season 

Spencer Torkelson would like to come into the conversation.  I'm not trying to compare Torkelson to Wallner or suggest that Torkelson or Wallner are considered the best hitters in the league.  I would just point out that Torkelson struggled in 2024, sent down to AAA for just over 1/3 of the season, and was on the verge of being replaced on the roster.  Obviously, the main differences are that there are no readily immediate replacements for Wallner, nor do I believe the coaching staff is up to the challenge of fixing Wallner.  Other examples could be Larnach or Lewis as it seems like the staff have no answers in helping them through their respective struggles either.  Another example can be that Lee complimented his father's coaching staff at Cal Tech - SLO for his bat handling skills resulting in the game-winning hit instead of any coaching that the current staff has done for him.  We can only hope that a team sale comes sooner rather than later for players like Lee, Lewis, and Wallner so there can be a complete turnover of the staff in the entire system rather than eventually trade them as the team failed to properly develop them as the players that they originally showed promise to be.  As the Joker has so eloquently stated in the 1989 Batman movie, "This town (team) needs an enema!".

Edited July 7, 2025 by Western SD Fan

[joefish]

Have Molitor spend some time with him. He's gonna have a short career if he doesnt figure it out soon. He does not pass the eye test 

[dberthia]

There seems to be a systemic problem with this bunch. Look at young hopefuls like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Miranda and Wallner. They do well in the minors, come up to the big leagues and have some initial success. People start to think they are going to have that kind of production for 10 years and hail them as potential stars. Then MLB teams get them on film, figure out their weaknesses, and attack them. This is where either these guys make adjustments and have some level of success (Lee, Lewis), or are unable to make adjustments and fall off a cliff (Julien, Miranda, Wallner). It seems to me that this organization either isn't setup to help these guys make adjustments, or the players are unwilling/unable to do so. I tend to favor the organizational explanation.

[NYCTK]

54 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

Spencer Torkelson would like to come into the conversation.  I'm not trying to compare Torkelson to Wallner or suggest that Torkelson or Wallner are considered the best hitters in the league.  I would just point out that Torkelson struggled in 2024, sent down to AAA for just over 1/3 of the season, and was on the verge of being replaced on the roster.  Obviously, the main differences are that there are no readily immediate replacements for Wallner, nor do I believe the coaching staff is up to the challenge of fixing Wallner.  Other examples could be Larnach or Lewis as it seems like the staff have no answers in helping them through their respective struggles either.  Another example can be that Lee complimented his father's coaching staff at Cal Tech - SLO for his bat handling skills resulting in the game-winning hit instead of any coaching that the current staff has done for him.  We can only hope that a team sale comes sooner rather than later for players like Lee, Lewis, and Wallner so there can be a complete turnover of the staff in the entire system rather than eventually trade them as the team failed to properly develop them as the players that they originally showed promise to be.  As the Joker has so eloquently stated in the 1989 Batman movie, "This town (team) needs an enema!".

Torkelson is a great comparison, because I don't think anyone in baseball would say he's established himself as one of the league's best hitters.  

[David Maro]

Anyone with eyes can see he has lost all confidence in the box. He is swinging thru pitches middle middle and middle up. He should have been sent to St.Paul a week ago to get himself back. Could of been brought back after the ASG. As it stands he is a leftside Sano. You can't have him and Clemens in the lineup because of the strikeouts.

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, DaveW44 said:

I’d stop short of calling the start of Wallner’s career “torrid.” I’d also stop short of saying he had established himself as in of the very best hitters in baseball. 
he’s had some good streaks and he’s had some awful streaks. 

This is the weird issue with Twins fans and Wallner. People just don't want to acknowledge what's right in front of them.

The numbers speak for themselves, I'm not really editorializing. Wallner is off to one of the best offensive starts to a career in franchise history and "torrid" is a perfectly apt way to describe it. His wOBA since debuting is among the top 10 MLB hitters (at least was before this downswing). He really hasn't had any "awful streaks" before this one, which is the core point of the article.

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, BrokenCompass said:

Wallner's bringing the team down, and so is Lewis. 

Twins didn't need these two players to have fantastic years - they just needed them to provide solid reliable contributions. They've miserably failed, to see two of the top prospects absolutely crash and burn has been incredibly deflating. 

Putting these two in the same bucket is egregious IMO. Wallner is in a slump but has had productive moments and his OPS is average. Pretty extreme to suggest he has "crashed and burned" because of a 4-week slump driven by BABIP. Lewis has been a complete zero with a 64 OPS+. 

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wallner has to figure this out. He is often a slow starter at the beginning of the season, unless he has mastered that level of baseball. Well, he had the injury, came back and was dominating AAA pitching. Many were hollering for the Twins to rush him back. He hasn't had his timing back since then. 

Just a reminder that he homered 4 times in his first 8 games off the injured list.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The statement that Wallner is/was/has been one of the better hitters in the game is ludicrous and a slap in the face to whole bunch of players that are actually the better hitters in the game. He has been pretty good in a limited role for half a season the two years prior against right handed pitchers. 

Lol it is a factual statement backed up by statistics. The only hitters who've been more productive in a larger sample since he debuted is a lineup of superstars and MVPs. Go see for yourself.

[LambchoP]

This isn't his first slump. We all know Wallner has major power, but the question is will he ever be able to produce anything other than the homers. His K rate is climbing sky high. He is a three true outcome guy with limited defense. With guys like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Martin and Fedko coming up, I think Wallner will need to find a way to be a bit more consistent and make more contact or he could find himself losing starts. With our OF depth right now I wouldn't mind seeing what we can get for Wallner. Maybe another team is intrigued by his power and tears of control.....

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

His wOBA since debuting is among the top 10 MLB hitters (at least was before this downswing). He really hasn't had any "awful streaks" before this one, which is the core point of the article.

I mean...this is just not true, considering we all saw him striking out in half of his plate appearances at the start of the 2024 season, coming out of a spring training where he was similarly struggling. And he continued to struggle for weeks at AAA until he got his swagger back. I don't know what we call that couple month stretch if it wasn't an "awful streak". 

You can't just pretend that didn't happen just because it didn't meet a particular MLB PA minimum that you've arbitrarily put in place. 

And I just am not overly impressed by someone with a relatively minimal number of plate appearances appearing in a rate stats leaderboard until they've put up full time work. That top 10? Well, he's 24th now, which is cool, but not showing how he's "established himself as one of the very best hitters in baseball". 

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lol it is a factual statement backed up by statistics. The only hitters who've been more productive in a larger sample since he debuted is a lineup of superstars and MVPs. Go see for yourself.

He also has a career 102 RBI. In over 700 PAs and 219 games. Not what you'd expect from one of the very best hitters in baseball... 

[Road trip]

29 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

 

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

Yup, Mauer and Perkins both went through this.  They were consistent punching bags for many fans.  Heck, many were ready to give up on Louie Varland last year, and this year he is one of the most reliable arms on the team.

We are the opposite of Yankee fans, who sometimes seem to think every player in the starting lineup is HOF-worthy..

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

Minnesotans aren't happy unless they're tearing down their professional sports athletes. They're even more critical if the player is from here.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

With guys like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Martin and Fedko coming up, 

Fedko is never coming up. 

[NYCTK]

Just to completely refute this article, would you believe Matt Wallner had a 182 plate appearance stretch just last season where he hit: .169 / .275 / .338? And if you want to be cheeky and include exhibition stats, that is actually over 226 PAs with a 0.614 OPS. 

Seems relevant if you're going to claim this is his first real slump. 

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Minnesotans aren't happy unless they're tearing down their professional sports athletes. They're even more critical if the player is from here.

Minnesota Nice™️

[RpR]

IF he had Kepler's glove, he would not be being questioned so hard, but, he does not.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lol it is a factual statement backed up by statistics. The only hitters who've been more productive in a larger sample since he debuted is a lineup of superstars and MVPs. Go see for yourself.

Sure I guess if you ignore his .588 OPS against lefties and ignore that the most games in the majors he has ever played is 76 and the one season he is likely to eclipse that mark his OPS+ is 99 so far. 

FYI, when you say one of the best hitters in the game, the comparison becomes All Star/MVP candidates. If you said one of the best hitters in baseball against just right handed pitchers or one of the best part time players in baseball that would be more accurate. 

I love me some Matt Wallner and I want him to be the hitter/player you think he is, but he isn't yet and saying he is makes you and him look bad and that isn't fair to him because he has been pretty darn good.