One Week's Worth of Evidence That Carlos Correa Needs to Move to Third Base - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

It was not a good week for Carlos Correa at shortstop. In fact, it hasn't been a good month, and (despite a few strong plays and his ironclad reputation) it hasn't been a good year, either. At 30 years old, the Twins' star shortstop is looking less and less like one—a shortstop, that is, although since he's not hitting well, he's also looking less and less like a star.

Last week, Baseball Prospectus released an expansion and update to its model for fielding evaluation. Prospectus's value metric for fielders is called Defensive Runs Prevented (DRP), and its backbone is Range Defense Added (RDA). The latter is meant to capture the number of balls a player reaches and converts to outs, above or below the number an average defender would be expected to reach and convert in the same array of opportunities. Along with a move to expand one of the components of RDA—Attempt Range, a measurement of how many balls a player gets to, above or below average—to all infielders, the update also corrected some former biases in apportioning responsibility to infielders based on the reported location of batted balls.

On the other side of all that, here are Correa's RDA, Attempt Range, and DRP totals for each season since 2021:

Season	Attempt Range	RDA Outs	DRP
2021	3	7.5	5.5
2022	-3	2.6	1.9
2023	-10	0	0
2024	-2	-1	-1.7
2025	-11	-3.4	-2.4

That's about as clear a linear trend as you could ask for. Keep in mind, too, that these are counting stats. For instance, if we prorated Correa's 2024 performance to about the same number of innings he played in each of the previous three years, he'd have been closer to 2.5 runs worse than average. If he plays all season the way he has so far, he'll be about 5 runs worse than average, in similar playing time to that over which he was better than average in 2022 and exactly average in 2023. 

Specifically, the Attempt Range column is telling us that Correa is getting worse at getting to the ball. He still has a very strong arm, a good internal clock, and a certain brilliance when it comes to taking a lead runner or converting a tough chopper into a double play. He just doesn't have the range you need from a shortstop in the majors.

That probably hits you funny, because Correa is still widely praised for his glovework. That's not entirely without merit. You can, indeed, see him make very good plays from time to time, and he rarely makes an ugly mistake. According to Sports Info Solutions and their Defensive Runs Saved evaluation framework, he's had a neutral or positive rating when it comes to Good Fielding Plays versus Defensive Misplays and Errors for every season since 2019. However, even DRS shows him nosing steeply downward, including this year. He's struggled going to his left for a few years, now, but in 2025, he's also not getting outs on balls to his right as well as he used to.

Numbers—especially defensive numbers—can be hard to take at face value, though. Let's take a walk through the last week (just one week) of defense for Correa, to see this problem in a more undeniable form.

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[tony&rodney]

This was an article that was justifiably bound to surface given that Carlos Correa has had foot problems, is slower, and the demands of shortstop are constant.

I have definitely noticed that Correa has reduced range. I also  notice how efficient he is on getting off spectacularly accurate throws to first base and how easily Carlos completes the routine plays. 

The movement of Correa to a corner infield position will not happen until the Twins have someone to play shortstop. Brooks Lee has looked increasingly better at third base, which is where he should be. Lee is better than Castro at shortstop but that doesn't make him a shortstop. The same applies to second base, but the Twins don't have anyone there at this time.

For now, Correa is all the Twins have for the shortstop position.

[Vanimal46]

Let’s further reduce Correa’s value by moving him off a premium position and replace him with a far worse player at SS. Brilliant idea! 

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The movement of Correa to a corner infield position will not happen until the Twins have someone to play shortstop. Brooks Lee has looked increasingly better at third base, which is where he should be. Lee is better than Castro at shortstop but that doesn't make him a shortstop. The same applies to second base, but the Twins don't have anyone there at this time.

For now, Correa is all the Twins have for the shortstop position.

I am assuming this move doesn't happen until Culpepper is ready. Half the MLB teams have a "below average" SS on defense.

[LambchoP]

I agree, Correa will be moved to third only once Culpeper establishes himself as an everyday player at SS. This probably puts Lewis at first and Lee and Keaschal fighting it out for second base and utility roles. Not a bad infield. Also have DeBarge, Eeles and maybe Clemens as bench pieces. Now if we could find some solid young pitching we'd be set ;)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

You can't replace somebody with nobody.  Castro isn't really a shortstop (and probably isn't around longer term anyway).  Lee is marginally a shortstop, but is probably even slower than Correa and doesn't have his arm.  Culpeper is in the minors, but quite a long ways away, so there is hardly a guarantee that he will EVER be a major league shortstop at this point. He's the best we have for now and for the next year or two.  Let's revisit this down the road.  

Also, if there is concern about Correa's bat (which I share as well), it plays even worse at third base.  

[nicksaviking]

I know people love these new defensive stats, but this is way too deep into the forest to see the trees. This should sum it up:

"he'll be about 5 runs worse than average".

Five runs over a season?!?! Dear lord no!!!!! Way too much emphasis is placed on that side of the ball. As a hitter, if a guy scores 75 runs instead of 80, NOBODY WOULD NOTICE.

For years now this team has struggled offensively and that needs to be the focus from now until they figure out that aspect of the game. If removing Correa from SS helps in that regard, go for it. I don't see the benefit to that at this point though.

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know people love these new defensive stats, but this is way too deep into the forest to see the trees. This should sum it up:

"he'll be about 5 runs worse than average".

Especially when the other options will be even worse.

[Matthew Trueblood]

52 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You can't replace somebody with nobody.  Castro isn't really a shortstop (and probably isn't around longer term anyway).  Lee is marginally a shortstop, but is probably even slower than Correa and doesn't have his arm.  Culpeper is in the minors, but quite a long ways away, so there is hardly a guarantee that he will EVER be a major league shortstop at this point. He's the best we have for now and for the next year or two.  Let's revisit this down the road.  

Also, if there is concern about Correa's bat (which I share as well), it plays even worse at third base.  

Well, short-term, Lee is the guy who fills in, but yes, they need to add a talented shortstop to their system. That should be a focus, and is part of what I'm saying here. I also think, though, that they'd be wise to move Correa ASAP; get him accustomed to the hot corner; and force themselves to become more decisive in the way they build their roster over the next few years than they have been in building it over the last few years. Culpepper is the medium-term answer, and you can try to upgrade from there, but the point is that Correa's not viable there. You have to set a higher bar for infield defense than they've been able to this year.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, short-term, Lee is the guy who fills in, but yes, they need to add a talented shortstop to their system. That should be a focus, and is part of what I'm saying here. I also think, though, that they'd be wise to move Correa ASAP; get him accustomed to the hot corner; and force themselves to become more decisive in the way they build their roster over the next few years than they have been in building it over the last few years. Culpepper is the medium-term answer, and you can try to upgrade from there, but the point is that Correa's not viable there. You have to set a higher bar for infield defense than they've been able to this year.

OK.  I understand the desire to have the "old platinum glove" guy at SS, but we don't have that guy. Yes, they absolutely should be developing someone to take over, but again, he's not here yet.  Until then -- likely at least two years -- Correa is the guy.  

As for moving him to the hot corner, I'm guessing he would grade out well there, with his strong arm (but not awesome ability to go to his left, hmmmm.. . . ).  My concern for third baseman Correa is that his bat would grade out terribly there right now, and potentially much worse as he ages and loses the hit tool.  

[RpR]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I agree, Correa will be moved to third only once Culpeper establishes himself as an everyday player at SS. This probably puts Lewis at first and Lee and Keaschal fighting it out for second base and utility roles. Not a bad infield. Also have DeBarge, Eeles and maybe Clemens as bench pieces. Now if we could find some solid young pitching we'd be set ;)

Culpepper is probably the latest TD player to not meet all the hype give him by TD, or worse, the curse TD hype is.

[P Meyer]

Correa being a financial albatross due to his health and inability to produce to his contract offensively AS WE AS being the best option the Twins have at SS can both be true I guess. Personally, I think the Twins need to focus on what develops their young players best, and let the overpaid vet deal with that. Because of his contract, the Twins aren't going to start spending on reinforcements so their only hope is to develop the players they have. 

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

the point is that Correa's not viable there

You haven't proven that point. 5 runs below average is a long way from "not viable".

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, RpR said:

Culpepper is probably the latest TD player to not meet all the hype give him by TD, or worse, the curse TD hype is.

Culpepper is going to get a lot of attention, mainly because he is the only infielder in the system who looks like he could be an average glove at SS. He might fall short, but nobody else even looks close.

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You haven't proven that point. 5 runs below average is a long way from "not viable".

No offense, man, and I fully understand that we can't all subscribe to everything, but you don't know what I've proven. You're not a Caretaker, so you haven't read like 65% of this article.

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No offense, man, and I fully understand that we can't all subscribe to everything, but you don't know what I've proven. You're not a Caretaker, so you haven't read like 65% of this article.

I’m sure you’re gonna get tons of people running with their wallets out after this reply. Keep it classy, site manager! 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No offense, man, and I fully understand that we can't all subscribe to everything, but you don't know what I've proven. You're not a Caretaker, so you haven't read like 65% of this article.

And I won't, which means you really don't care much about convincing me of anything.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I know people love these new defensive stats, but this is way too deep into the forest to see the trees. This should sum it up:

"he'll be about 5 runs worse than average".

Five runs over a season?!?! Dear lord no!!!!! Way too much emphasis is placed on that side of the ball. As a hitter, if a guy scores 75 runs instead of 80, NOBODY WOULD NOTICE.

For years now this team has struggled offensively and that needs to be the focus from now until they figure out that aspect of the game. If removing Correa from SS helps in that regard, go for it. I don't see the benefit to that at this point though.

Both agree and disagree. I think you're right that a moderately below average SS is nothing to get bent out of shape about if that player is able to provide at least average production at the plate. But also think too many people undervalue defense as a whole. 

Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner aren't nearly as valuable as many seem to think due to the fact that they're simply terrible outfielders. At the end of the defensive spectrum and still really bad. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, short-term, Lee is the guy who fills in, but yes, they need to add a talented shortstop to their system. That should be a focus, and is part of what I'm saying here. I also think, though, that they'd be wise to move Correa ASAP; get him accustomed to the hot corner; and force themselves to become more decisive in the way they build their roster over the next few years than they have been in building it over the last few years. Culpepper is the medium-term answer, and you can try to upgrade from there, but the point is that Correa's not viable there. You have to set a higher bar for infield defense than they've been able to this year.

Well, short term, Lee is guy who fills in? Thats the most asinine thing ever written. So Correa is no longer viable at SS, so let's move mr. Slow motion to shortstop and get WORSE until they get a true SS from wherever.  But they'll have their 3rd baseman for the next 3 years. Solid thinking. I do agree that Correa is not the SS he once was. Go on the game thread. There are lots of Kool-aid drinkers who still think he's the best SS in the ML.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Moderator note: Ok everyone. 

I think there was some discussion at one point, about making Caretaker articles available for comment for subscribers at one point? As it stands now, comments look to be open to everyone. No need to make it meta at the expense of the actual content.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I also  notice how efficient he is on getting off spectacularly accurate throws to first base and how easily Carlos completes the routine plays. 

Correct - I don't think there is anyone as good as Correa at quickly setting himself to make an on target throw to first base. It's really a treat to watch, aside from all the other quibbles big and not so big. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

For years now this team has struggled offensively

I can agree that the offense has struggled but it usually is middle or middle lower half. The areas that are a real concern are base running and defense where the Twins are about as poor as possible.

The solution is to roster a team of athletic players who can run, hit, and catch the ball. Then everything will be fixed.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Culpepper is going to get a lot of attention, mainly because he is the only infielder in the system who looks like he could be an average glove at SS. He might fall short, but nobody else even looks close.

Actually if you watched Winokur on a consistent basis you would be both pleased and surprised. The talent is through the roof: range, arm, quickness, and speed. He can play above average defense at both centerfield and shortstop. The problem is whether he will ever gain control of those long arms and hit on a consistent basis. Contact can be an issue. He is my favorite minor league player to watch despite the woeful contact.  If I had to choose a shortstop only from the Twins organization and the bat doesn't count, I would choose Winokur.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Culpepper is probably the latest TD player to not meet all the hype give him by TD, or worse, the curse TD hype is.

Thumbs down x 10. 

[Sjoski]

The Twins are a mess...after reading this article and considering C4's contract...it's a Tangled Mess.

[Bodie]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I can agree that the offense has struggled but it usually is middle or middle lower half. The areas that are a real concern are base running and defense where the Twins are about as poor as possible.

The solution is to roster a team of athletic players who can run, hit, and catch the ball. Then everything will be fixed.

One quibble...

If you think this team is "as poor as possible" with the glove , how did you grade the Twins for last season's second half?  

It can get worse... much, much worse - one word "Julien"!

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

OK.  I understand the desire to have the "old platinum glove" guy at SS, but we don't have that guy. Yes, they absolutely should be developing someone to take over, but again, he's not here yet.  Until then -- likely at least two years -- Correa is the guy.  

As for moving him to the hot corner, I'm guessing he would grade out well there, with his strong arm (but not awesome ability to go to his left, hmmmm.. . . ).  My concern for third baseman Correa is that his bat would grade out terribly there right now, and potentially much worse as he ages and loses the hit tool.  

At least two years? If Culpepper isn't here next year it's likely much more than 2 years unless they get their next SS in the first round this year. Winokur can defend at SS, but can't hit yet and he's too big of a question mark with the bat to put any timeline on. But Culpepper was a first round pick and is succeeding in AA already. He should be in the bigs next year at the absolute latest. He should probably get a cup of coffee in September this year if he keeps playing like he is right now. 

I'm not suggesting moving Correa to 3B Tuesday in preparation for Culpepper, but a move to 3B for Correa over the winter could make some sense. At least start putting in some work there and be ready to make the move next season. If Culpepper is going to be the future at SS that future should start showing itself next year. And if Correa can't move well enough for SS anymore and Culpepper is the better defensive option there, Correa should be the one moving to get the best defensive alignment on the field. Correa should start seeing time at 3B by very early next season at the latest or things have gone terribly, terribly wrong with Culpepper.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Actually if you watched Winokur on a consistent basis you would be both pleased and surprised. 

Is he going to grow out of the position as he bulks up?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I can agree that the offense has struggled but it usually is middle or middle lower half. The areas that are a real concern are base running and defense where the Twins are about as poor as possible.

The solution is to roster a team of athletic players who can run, hit, and catch the ball. Then everything will be fixed.

Agreed they need to improve everywhere. But it's HIT, catch than run. 

The top OPS teams are always better than the top DRS teams. Plenty of overlap, and those tend to be the elite clubs. But it has to be bats over gloves because inconsistent offense gets you nowhere. 

[Mike Sixel]

Moving a guy who can't hit well enough at SS to 3B seems like a bad idea.....not that I have a GOOD answer at this point....