Royals 2, Twins 1: Offense Stifled by Bubic, Royals Rally Late to Avoid Sweep

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn- Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (89 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 73%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (-.323), Royce Lewis (-.190), Harrison Bader (-.153)
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

The Twins just keep winning, with all the situations that spelled doom for them over the first few weeks of the season flipping on their head, and in this series, resulting in two walk-off wins thus far. Today, however, the Royals turned to the surging Kris Bubic, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year, with a 1.47 ERA and league-leading 2.8 bWAR.

The Twins countered with Bailey Ober, who has been slowly Animorphing into his height-mate, Chris Young, former Royals starter and current Texas executive. Young could never crack 90 MPH on his fastball, but used his supreme baseball IQ and assortment of offspeed and breaking pitches to dance through enough raindrops to forge a successful major-league career.

This all alludes to Ober's iffy peripheral stats in 2025, resulting from a decline in fastball velocity of roughly 1.5 MPH. He has allowed a lot of hits and loud contact, but has been able to pitch around heavy traffic to post an Ober-like 3.68 ERA, despite a decrease in strikeout rate from nearly 27% in 2024 to under 20% this year.

This was all on full display Sunday, as Ober allowed traffic in each of the first four innings—particularly in the third, when Maikel García walked with one out and Bobby Witt Jr. followed with a scorching double to left. Vinnie Pasquantino softly lined out on a well-executed changeup, with Carlos Correa making the sprawling play at short with the infield playing back, and Salvador Perez lined out right to Willi Castro in left field. All of these outs were early in counts, a trend that continued throughout the outing, as Ober needed just 67 pitches to complete five scoreless innings.

Bubic was greeted in the first with a sharp double to the opposite field from Ryan Jeffers. Ty France then blooped a single over second base, which Jeffers read well, and it was 1-0 Twins before Bubic had recorded an out. Unfortunately, that's when Bubic remembered how good he was, and started dotting his impressive changeup and sweeper combination whenever he wanted. After Royce Lewis drew a walk later in the frame, Bubic retired the next 14 Twins in order, with high efficiency, matching Ober with 67 pitches through five innings.

That ended in the sixth, when Jeffers drew a leadoff walk. Just as I uttered the phrase, "This looks like a double play waiting to happen," Ty France grounded to first base on a changeup painted on the outside edge, and Pasquantino made the twin killing look easy.

The Royals rode that momentum swing into the seventh, with the light-hitting Drew Waters getting on top of an Ober fastball and lining it down the right-field line for a leadoff double. Playing in on the grass, France made a nice pick on a sharp grounder from Nick Loftin, recording the out without allowing Waters to advance. For some reason, the Royals still believe in second baseman Michael Massey (.664 OPS in over 1,100 career at-bats), and he popped out quickly. Freddy Fermin was next, however, and he golfed a low 0-2 changeup (right where Ober wanted it) into the gap in left-center field to score Waters and tie the game. That spelled the end of the day for Ober, but Louis Varland was able to retire García to end the threat.

Varland stayed in to face the only truly threatening portion of the Royals lineup, and retired Witt, Pasquantino and Perez easily. He struck out Witt on a curveball in the dirt, no easy feat, and got the other two stars on weak groundouts.

The Twins went down quietly in their half of the inning, with Trevor Larnach pinch-hitting and at least ending the Twins' hitless streak, which had dated back to the first inning.

Waters reached on an infield single against Cole Sands in the ninth, and despite having plus speed, he was pinch-run for with the ultra-speedy Dairon Blanco. That was a blunder on the Royals' part, because Jeffers threw out Blanco on the first pitch of the next at-bat. Maybe they should call Terrance Gore and see what he's up to these days.

Larnach then made an awesome catch to end the frame, diving toward the infield to rob a hit from Loftin (.650 expected batting average).

After going quietly against Royals closer Carlos Estevez in the ninth, Jhoan Duran took over for the tenth inning and recorded the first two outs without Loftin (the Manfred Man) advancing off of second base. García, who has really improved offensively this year, then lined an 0-2 curveball into left field, Loftin scored and the Royals had their first lead of the day. Duran then retired Witt to end the threat.

Lewis popped up a slider in the middle of the zone to start the bottom of the 10th. Kody Clemens did draw a walk, and Brooks Lee, hero of Saturday's game, did come up with the winning run on second, but grounded out to end the game.

Stray Observations:

-Ober's ERA is down to 3.41. Can he keep this up or are we about to see the regression monster rear its ugly head?

-Carson McCusker was removed for defense in the seventh in favor of DaShawn Keirsey Jr., which seemed reasonable. Then with the game tied in the eighth, Keirsey Jr. was removed in favor of pinch-hitter Trevor Larnach. To Baldelli's credit, Larnach did produce the first hit since the first inning against reliever Jonathan Bowlan, but the decision was curious, nonetheless.

Of course, Larnach then made an impressive diving catch to end the top of the ninth inning. I guess even managers can have hot streaks.

-Castro fouled another ball off his body, and for the 647th time this season, was evaluated by trainer Nick Paparesta. It's hard to keep track of where Castro is banged up at this point, but he has not looked good in quite a while. Kody Clemens can provide almost as much defensively as Castro and has been scorching hot at the plate, so the loyalty to Castro seems misplaced at this point. Clemens is a lefty hitter, but Castro has been so bad from the right side (.591 OPS) I don't feel that distinction matters.

-Royce Lewis is back to struggling. Has there ever been a more cursed quote than Lewis's declaration that he doesn't slump? Following that quote on June 19th, 2024, Lewis finished the year with a .202/.265/.360 line and has begun this year .158/.226/.246. I'm not superstitious but I don't follow up a good golf game by saying my swing will always be good.

What’s Next: The Twins head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at George Steinbrenner Field. Chris Paddack (2-4, 3.98 ERA) takes on former Twin Zack Littell (3-5, 4.25 ERA) at the converted Yankees' spring training site. Paddack has posted 2.59 ERA since his first outing in Chicago that we would all rather forget. Littell has been solid since a rough start to the year, as well. The Rays are also riding a five game winning streak that has them back to .500, so despite a rather anemic offense, they will come to  play.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Durán	23	0	0	23	18	64
Sands	20	0	14	0	12	46
Jax	20	0	11	12	0	43
Varland	14	0	9	0	12	35
Topa	0	0	0	34	0	34
Alcalá	0	0	0	26	0	26
Funderburk	11	0	0	0	0	17
Stewart	0	0	3	7	0	10

 

View full article

[Peter]

Rather get blown out then lose one run game like this!!!! Hate hate hate losing one run/extra inning games-Need to go at least 6-4 on road trip!!! Just worried this loss will sting for awhile!!

[William K Johnson]

Kinda of confused on why Larnac was not the first sub in right field, then when he got on base Kiersey could have ran and stayed in defensively.   It seemed like we switched them in the wrong order.   

[USAFChief]

 Both KC RBI hits came on 0-2 pitches. That's ridiculously bad pitching. 

 

Our 4 and 5 hitters today had an OPS of nearly 1.000. ... Combined. Individually neither were at even .500. That's the 4 and 5 hitters, ladies a d germs. 

Lewis's swing is comically bad. Arms only, feet dancing the conga, zero balance.  I dont understand why he's getting any run. Hes not helping.

 

 

[Parfigliano]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 Both KC RBI hits came on 0-2 pitches. That's ridiculously bad pitching. 

 

Our 4 and 5 hitters today had an OPS of nearly 1.000. ... Combined. Individually neither were at even .500. That's the 4 and 5 hitters, ladies a d germs. 

Lewis's swing is comically bad. Arms only, feet dancing the conga, zero balance.  I dont understand why he's getting any run. Hes not helping.

 

 

He's broken.  Maybe permanently.  Going back to last year its been about 300 ABs of this futility.  He's to the point where if he sees 5 pitches then makes his out it's a good AB.

[JD-TWINS]

48 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Kinda of confused on why Larnac was not the first sub in right field, then when he got on base Kiersey could have ran and stayed in defensively.   It seemed like we switched them in the wrong order.   

He wanted Kiersey’s defense in the game in the 7th and then wanted the option to hit Larnach wherever/whenever advantageous. Larnach being in the game didn’t hurt anything - close play at 2B - if he’s called safe and K.C. challenges he’s probably safe. Anyway, somebody has to get some hits to win a game - can’t, IMO, expect everything to fall your way in games where the Team gets 3-4 hits.

Frustrating watching both runs the Royals scored to be driven in on 0-2 counts! Again, sports aren’t perfect and both Ober & Duran just made poor pitches in the zone when ahead, and they got hit hard.

Tough loss with the big crowd there today!

[karcherd]

53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Both KC RBI hits came on 0-2 pitches. That's ridiculously bad pitching. 

The pitch to Garcia was at the bottom of the zone and he was out in front of it, but was able to stay back just long enough to get his bat on it.  Sometimes you have to tip your hat to the hitter.  Ober executed his pitch, but the hitter beat him this time.

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 Both KC RBI hits came on 0-2 pitches. That's ridiculously bad pitching. 

 

Our 4 and 5 hitters today had an OPS of nearly 1.000. ... Combined. Individually neither were at even .500. That's the 4 and 5 hitters, ladies a d germs. 

Lewis's swing is comically bad. Arms only, feet dancing the conga, zero balance.  I dont understand why he's getting any run. Hes not helping.

 

 

Throw the ball out of the strike zone, maybe they chase .... and that is what happened too as both pitches were out of the strike zone. Ball ball hitting is a thing and maybe they hit the pitches if they are two feet off the plate. I'm more inclined to question the pitch selection.

Willi Castro had the ball in his glove in shallow left field when the runner was one step from third base. I had to play it back and freeze frame the sequence because when I watched it live I could not understand how the runner scored. It looked like he should have been out by a bit. Castro looked under control but he must have had the ball deep in his palm.

[jmlease1]

I'm definitely concerned about Ober, who looked good on paper today, but there was a lot of solid contact that went right at guys and some good defense that bailed him out. It doesn't feel that sustainable, but you never know.

Was at the game today (nice day for it!) and felt like there was some inconsistent umpiring today, not sure what people at home thought. 

[RpR]

[Strombomb]

This is spot-on:

"Castro fouled another ball off his body, and for the 647th time this season, was evaluated by trainer Nick Paparesta. It's hard to keep track of where Castro is banged up at this point, but he has not looked good in quite a while. Kody Clemens can provide almost as much defensively as Castro and has been scorching hot at the plate, so the loyalty to Castro seems misplaced at this point. Clemens is a lefty hitter, but Castro has been so bad from the right side (.591 OPS) I don't feel that distinction matters."

I love Willi but he gets overplayed. 

[Strombomb]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

"That's ridiculously bad pitching."

Wholeheartedly disagree. 

 

 

 

[Strombomb]

48 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

"Ober & Duran just made poor pitches in the zone when ahead, and they got hit hard."

I saw something different 

 

[Sutter50]

6 minutes ago, Strombomb said:

 

Would it make people feel better if he wasted a pitch and then threw the same pitch on a 1 and 2 count? Sometimes a good pitch gets hit, hitters are paid to hit, sometimes they do.

[USAFChief]

55 minutes ago, Sutter50 said:

Would it make people feel better if he wasted a pitch and then threw the same pitch on a 1 and 2 count? Sometimes a good pitch gets hit, hitters are paid to hit, sometimes they do.

Line drives on 0-2 are not "good pitches."

Quite the opposite.

They're terrible pitches.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Sutter50 said:

Would it make people feel better if he wasted a pitch and then threw the same pitch on a 1 and 2 count? Sometimes a good pitch gets hit, hitters are paid to hit, sometimes they do.

Probably about right. While Ober was walking the line all day, far and away the bigger issue was the offense, which put up 1 in the first and then thought they could take the rest of the day off. 3 hits and 3 walks simply doesn't get you enough baserunners. The pitching was plenty good enough to win, but expecting to get wins with 3 hits is unrealistic. Fortunately, the Twins won the series, and if they get into a pattern of winning series after series they're going to be just fine. But they need Wallner and Buxton back, they need Lewis to get right at the plate, and they need more from Correa. That's just a reality. The pitching is there, and deserves some offensive support.

[Twinsoholic]

Chief wrote:

“Line drives on 0-2 are not "good pitches."

Quite the opposite.

They're terrible pitches.”

 

The KC game winning hit by Garcia was out of the strike zone, low, but I agree with Chief that it was “terrible pitching” because Duran should have kept throwing the high fastball. By throwing, instead, the splitter or splinker, Duran sped up Garcia’s bat, which led to the powerful contact. He was not close on the high fastball. While it is true that Garcia went down to hit the pitch, he was able to do that because the pitch was not nearly as challenging as the fastball. Don’t speed up a dangerous hitter’s bat. Works occasionally, but too often it is a boon for the batter. Unless Duran had buried the pitch in the dirt in front of the plate, he was courting danger. 

[Blyleven2011]

Sorry to see the twins fail to walk off another win ( i missed most of the game but caught the last 3 innings on radìo in the car ) , but as the saying goes , you can't win them all ...

Well that is true , but 3 hits by the  offense and your not going to win that many games  ...

Has anyone figured out this teams identity yet , year after year we struggle with an identity  ...

This year we have good starting pitching and a bullpen that has been very good  , defense is better now with some players sen̈t down and a couple of new additions ...

Hitting just isn't clicking on their hitting adjustment ( strategy ) , when they have hit the ball to the opposite field they do very well playing small ball  ,  they need consistency ...

Can't win them all ...

[knothole61]

Yes, we could have won this one, (must move the Manfred runner to third immediately, whatever it takes!) but goodness, what a wonderful, classic pitchers' duel it was. Ober stood tall (!) and Bubic was a magician...despite the loss, it was a great show.

Hard to say it and hate to say it, but it might be time to reevaluate Lewis back in St, Paul. I agree that he is looking lost in the box these days. Sadly, I'd rather see Bride or Castro at bat in a clutch situation right now than Lewis. Please prove me wrong on the road trip and I'll gladly eat crow. If he continues his horrific slump throughout the road trip, I'd say it's time for a trip to St. Paul.    

[David Maro]

Throw the extra inning plan in the trash please. You need to tie the game before you can win the game. Get the runner to 3rd with no one out. And don't send 3 hitters up swinging for the fences. I watched the Phillies hit 2 sac flies in one inning to score the tying run from 2nd. The living and dying by analytics stupid and needs to end.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, karcherd said:

The pitch to Garcia was at the bottom of the zone and he was out in front of it, but was able to stay back just long enough to get his bat on it.  Sometimes you have to tip your hat to the hitter.  Ober executed his pitch, but the hitter beat him this time.

I agree - hitters can hit good pitches…….but an 0-2 pitch shouldn’t catch 1/3 of the plate and above the knees. It was a change-up and the hitter was out front (fooled initially) but it was also a mistake from Ober.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Throw the extra inning plan in the trash please. You need to tie the game before you can win the game. Get the runner to 3rd with no one out. And don't send 3 hitters up swinging for the fences. I watched the Phillies hit 2 sac flies in one inning to score the tying run from 2nd. The living and dying by analytics stupid and needs to end.

Don’t disagree (especially in hindsight) that not advancing the runner is a mistake with an impotent line-up. Gotta score that run. However, at some point the Team has to try to WIN the game and burning up your bullpen further with 3 more in a row coming in Tampa is not a sound strategy either.

[mikelink45]

14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm definitely concerned about Ober, who looked good on paper today, but there was a lot of solid contact that went right at guys and some good defense that bailed him out. It doesn't feel that sustainable, but you never know.

Was at the game today (nice day for it!) and felt like there was some inconsistent umpiring today, not sure what people at home thought. 

If he is truly regressing this year and his speed is down, he might be a good candidate to trade with other teams. Hoping he can retain the quality he has had these last few years. I have enjoyed seeing him learned pitch rather than just go for strikeouts like so many are now. But if he's not maxing his effort and fastball then perhaps he should be able to go deeper in the game

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Sorry to see the twins fail to walk off another win ( i missed most of the game but caught the last 3 innings on radìo in the car ) , but as the saying goes , you can't win them all ...

Well that is true , but 3 hits by the  offense and your not going to win that many games  ...

Has anyone figured out this teams identity yet , year after year we struggle with an identity  ...

This year we have good starting pitching and a bullpen that has been very good  , defense is better now with some players sen̈t down and a couple of new additions ...

Hitting just isn't clicking on their hitting adjustment ( strategy ) , when they have hit the ball to the opposite field they do very well playing small ball  ,  they need consistency ...

Can't win them all ...

Can’t win them all - exactly. Nearly every loss can be second guessed, somewhere. 3 hits beats no one though & that’s a pretty tried & true premise. They NEED Wallner & Buxton sooner than later. Another contributor was mentioning Bride & Castro as better RBI options than Lewis at this point………I honestly don’t remember when either of those guys had a big RBI……..need better options throughout the line-up!

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, Sutter50 said:

Would it make people feel better if he wasted a pitch and then threw the same pitch on a 1 and 2 count? Sometimes a good pitch gets hit, hitters are paid to hit, sometimes they do.

Pitchers are paid as well! BOTH of KC’s RBI were on 0-2 pitches …….. the broadcast, throughout the weekend, emphasized the propensity of the Royals hitters to be aggressive…….also, a lot of swing and miss. An 0-2 pitche should help set-up the 1-2 pitch. Both guys were trying to start in the zone and finish out of the zone, unfortunately, they finished in the zone and got hit. Physical mistakes happen. No easier to watch nor accept than a guy striking out on ball four, it happens - doesn’t mean everyone should think it’s OK.

[bean5302]

Bailey Ober's keeping runs off the board by generating tons of pop ups, and he generates those pop ups by staying in the zone. MLB batters make a lot of contact against Ober's pitches outside the zone, and batters have been hitting a lot of line drives off him this year.

Both Ober's pitch and Duran's pitches were good. Ober set Fermin up with sweeper/slider upper-middle, then sweeper inside, then went to the changeup that moves 3B side, the opposite direction of his previous pitches at the bottom edge/ outer-middle of the zone. Ober would have probably liked it to be a little further outside by a couple inches to be perfect, but still good.

Duran's threw 2 - 100mph fastballs that rise 12" and move inside towards the batter to paint the upper-inside corner with 2 strikes. The first strike swinging, the second strike foul. Now Fermin is on timing with the fastball. The last pitch was an 88mph knuckle curve down out of the strike zone down-middle, and the curve moves towards 1B away from the batter while dropping 2 feet more than his fastball. Duran wants the curve to look like a strike to get the swing at a pitch out of the zone with little chance of contact, but use the 12mph difference to generate either a foul if there is contact. Fermin was on the curve. Good pitch. A little lower would have been a great pitch.

Throwing junk to the best hitters on the planet, and just hoping the catcher blocks it with a runner in scoring position? That's a bad pitch, even if it works.

[LambchoP]

Royce either needs an IL trip to get healthy, or a reset at AAA. He's a hole in our lineup right now that we just can't afford.

[bean5302]

49 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Royce either needs an IL trip to get healthy, or a reset at AAA. He's a hole in our lineup right now that we just can't afford.

He's off on timing. Not sure if it will suddenly come back or not, but he's making a lot contact rather than striking out. The hit tool is there, but he's looking awkward so I have to wonder if he's healthy enough to be playing.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If he is truly regressing this year and his speed is down, he might be a good candidate to trade with other teams. Hoping he can retain the quality he has had these last few years. I have enjoyed seeing him learned pitch rather than just go for strikeouts like so many are now. But if he's not maxing his effort and fastball then perhaps he should be able to go deeper in the game

Seems he went pretty deep Saturday (6 2/3) with only 8 base runners. I don’t think his velocity drop is effort related. I think it’s his physiology and delivery.

His ERA since his first outing (last 10 starts) is around or under 2.50. Doesn’t seem like a guy one would trade with 2 more years of Team control?

[Melissa]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Willi Castro had the ball in his glove in shallow left field when the runner was one step from third base. I had to play it back and freeze frame the sequence because when I watched it live I could not understand how the runner scored. It looked like he should have been out by a bit. Castro looked under control but he must have had the ball deep in his palm.

My impression is that Castro’s arm isn’t nearly the caliber of (pick ‘em) Buxton, Bader, Kiersy, Wallner, maybe even Larnach. His multiple ailments might also be a factor.