Royals 2, Twins 1: Offense Stifled by Bubic, Royals Rally Late to Avoid Sweep

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (89 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 73%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (-.323), Royce Lewis (-.190), Harrison Bader (-.153)
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

The Twins just keep winning, with all the situations that spelled doom for them over the first few weeks of the season flipping on their head, and in this series, resulting in two walk-off wins thus far. Today, however, the Royals turned to the surging Kris Bubic, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year, with a 1.47 ERA and league-leading 2.8 bWAR.

The Twins countered with Bailey Ober, who has been slowly Animorphing into his height-mate, Chris Young, former Royals starter and current Texas executive. Young could never crack 90 MPH on his fastball, but used his supreme baseball IQ and assortment of offspeed and breaking pitches to dance through enough raindrops to forge a successful major-league career.

This all alludes to Ober's iffy peripheral stats in 2025, resulting from a decline in fastball velocity of roughly 1.5 MPH. He has allowed a lot of hits and loud contact, but has been able to pitch around heavy traffic to post an Ober-like 3.68 ERA, despite a decrease in strikeout rate from nearly 27% in 2024 to under 20% this year.

This was all on full display Sunday, as Ober allowed traffic in each of the first four innings—particularly in the third, when Maikel García walked with one out and Bobby Witt Jr. followed with a scorching double to left. Vinnie Pasquantino softly lined out on a well-executed changeup, with Carlos Correa making the sprawling play at short with the infield playing back, and Salvador Perez lined out right to Willi Castro in left field. All of these outs were early in counts, a trend that continued throughout the outing, as Ober needed just 67 pitches to complete five scoreless innings.

Bubic was greeted in the first with a sharp double to the opposite field from Ryan Jeffers. Ty France then blooped a single over second base, which Jeffers read well, and it was 1-0 Twins before Bubic had recorded an out. Unfortunately, that's when Bubic remembered how good he was, and started dotting his impressive changeup and sweeper combination whenever he wanted. After Royce Lewis drew a walk later in the frame, Bubic retired the next 14 Twins in order, with high efficiency, matching Ober with 67 pitches through five innings.

That ended in the sixth, when Jeffers drew a leadoff walk. Just as I uttered the phrase, "This looks like a double play waiting to happen," Ty France grounded to first base on a changeup painted on the outside edge, and Pasquantino made the twin killing look easy.

The Royals rode that momentum swing into the seventh, with the light-hitting Drew Waters getting on top of an Ober fastball and lining it down the right-field line for a leadoff double. Playing in on the grass, France made a nice pick on a sharp grounder from Nick Loftin, recording the out without allowing Waters to advance. For some reason, the Royals still believe in second baseman Michael Massey (.664 OPS in over 1,100 career at-bats), and he popped out quickly. Freddy Fermin was next, however, and he golfed a low 0-2 changeup (right where Ober wanted it) into the gap in left-center field to score Waters and tie the game. That spelled the end of the day for Ober, but Louis Varland was able to retire García to end the threat.

Varland stayed in to face the only truly threatening portion of the Royals lineup, and retired Witt, Pasquantino and Perez easily. He struck out Witt on a curveball in the dirt, no easy feat, and got the other two stars on weak groundouts.

The Twins went down quietly in their half of the inning, with Trevor Larnach pinch-hitting and at least ending the Twins' hitless streak, which had dated back to the first inning.

Waters reached on an infield single against Cole Sands in the ninth, and despite having plus speed, he was pinch-run for with the ultra-speedy Dairon Blanco. That was a blunder on the Royals' part, because Jeffers threw out Blanco on the first pitch of the next at-bat. Maybe they should call Terrance Gore and see what he's up to these days.

Larnach then made an awesome catch to end the frame, diving toward the infield to rob a hit from Loftin (.650 expected batting average).

After going quietly against Royals closer Carlos Estevez in the ninth, Jhoan Duran took over for the tenth inning and recorded the first two outs without Loftin (the Manfred Man) advancing off of second base. García, who has really improved offensively this year, then lined an 0-2 curveball into left field, Loftin scored and the Royals had their first lead of the day. Duran then retired Witt to end the threat.

Lewis popped up a slider in the middle of the zone to start the bottom of the 10th. Kody Clemens did draw a walk, and Brooks Lee, hero of Saturday's game, did come up with the winning run on second, but grounded out to end the game.

Stray Observations:

-Ober's ERA is down to 3.41. Can he keep this up or are we about to see the regression monster rear its ugly head?

-Carson McCusker was removed for defense in the seventh in favor of DaShawn Keirsey Jr., which seemed reasonable. Then with the game tied in the eighth, Keirsey Jr. was removed in favor of pinch-hitter Trevor Larnach. To Baldelli's credit, Larnach did produce the first hit since the first inning against reliever Jonathan Bowlan, but the decision was curious, nonetheless.

Of course, Larnach then made an impressive diving catch to end the top of the ninth inning. I guess even managers can have hot streaks.

-Castro fouled another ball off his body, and for the 647th time this season, was evaluated by trainer Nick Paparesta. It's hard to keep track of where Castro is banged up at this point, but he has not looked good in quite a while. Kody Clemens can provide almost as much defensively as Castro and has been scorching hot at the plate, so the loyalty to Castro seems misplaced at this point. Clemens is a lefty hitter, but Castro has been so bad from the right side (.591 OPS) I don't feel that distinction matters.

-Royce Lewis is back to struggling. Has there ever been a more cursed quote than Lewis's declaration that he doesn't slump? Following that quote on June 19th, 2024, Lewis finished the year with a .202/.265/.360 line and has begun this year .158/.226/.246. I'm not superstitious but I don't follow up a good golf game by saying my swing will always be good.

What’s Next: The Twins head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at George Steinbrenner Field. Chris Paddack (2-4, 3.98 ERA) takes on former Twin Zack Littell (3-5, 4.25 ERA) at the converted Yankees' spring training site. Paddack has posted 2.59 ERA since his first outing in Chicago that we would all rather forget. Littell has been solid since a rough start to the year, as well. The Rays are also riding a five game winning streak that has them back to .500, so despite a rather anemic offense, they will come to  play.

Postgame Interviews:

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