Enjoying Unusual, Sustained Run of Good Health, Byron Buxton Tests Baseball's Limits

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

As Twins fans know far too well, injuries have been the bane of Byron Buxton throughout his professional career. They've kept him off the field for long stretches—usually at least half of any given season—and sometimes diminished him even when he's been able to gut his way through and keep playing with them. They've denied both fans and the man himself the opportunity to see just how much this extraordinary player, with a once-in-a-generation blend of tools and lovingly honed baseball skills, is capable of.

Funnily, though, injuries have also sometimes shielded Buxton, in a way. They've taken him off the field, at times, just when you could see an inevitable slump developing, or they've forced him to play a more controlled, less outlandish version of his game—something better resembling what the rest of the baseball universe has to play. Players with unique talent can take unique approaches to their craft, but there's a reason why even the best players in history tended to operate in certain ways. Buxton belongs to that class of player, like Mickey Mantle and Alex Rodriguez but also like, say, Bo Jackson, who have so much talent that the challenge becomes understanding where the game does and doesn't permit extreme approaches to flourish.

This year, we've gotten arguably the longest stretch of uninterrupted, undiluted healthy Buxton of his entire career—and it's not even the middle of May. He's not merely feeling well enough to stay on the field. He's actually played at his full capacity for a full quarter of a season, starting every day in center field, batting near the top of the order, and running at full speed. Naturally, therefore, he's trending toward an MVP-caliber season (albeit in a league where that award itself is already virtually locked up, by Aaron Judge). According to Baseball Reference, he's already been:

• 3 runs better than average at bat
• 2 runs better than average on the bases
• 1 run better than average due to his ability to avoid hitting into double plays
• 2 runs better than average on defense

That's despite a horrendous start in which he batted .171/.209/.293 over his first 11 games, with the shadow of an illness in his family hanging over him. At the end of that stretch, when the family member passed, he was away from the team for two games to attend the funeral and be with his loved ones. Since his return, he's hitting .299/.339/.607. This is Peak Buxton, at age 31 and on the other side of such a litany of injuries.

He's pushing even his own profile to new extremes, though—perhaps because the restrictor plates are off, for the moment. Buxton is swinging at the first pitch 46.3% of the time, which is the highest rate of his career (save 2020, his playing time during which he's already exceeded this year) and more than half again the league average (29.6%). He's not swinging as often as he sometimes has, overall, showing decent plate discipline: He's swung at 74.7% of the pitches he's seen inside the zone, and 29.2% of those outside it. Those numbers are typical of his last few seasons, marking him as much more aggressive than the average hitter on strikes but not especially prone to chasing.

However, when he does chase, Buxton is coming up empty at a truly remarkable rate. He's only made contact on 34.8% of his swings at out-of-zone pitches this season, which is not only a career-low, but the fourth-lowest among qualified batters this year. Only Brandon Lowe, Judge, and Ryan McMahon have made less contact outside the zone, and they all chase less often than Buxton, anyway.

This is why Buxton leads the majors in strikeouts. He's swinging with reckless abandon when he sees what he believes to be his pitch. He's not modulating his swing or reshaping it to make contact if it turns out to be something other than what he thought he saw. That's leading to lots and lots of whiffs, and not very many walks, and he would need to make a major approach change to see those trends reverse themselves. On the other hand, it's also leading to 55.2% of his batted balls jumping off the bat at 95 miles per hour or more, a career-high mark. He's been able to use his legs to grab extra bases and beat out a few infield hits. He's been such a menace for opposing defenses that his BABIP is a whopping .341, despite his extreme fly-ball tendencies.

It's not clear how long one can play this high-octane a level of offensive baseball. It's not as neat or orderly or obviously sustainable as the way Judge is thriving—not by a long shot. Indeed, Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Created model assigns him a DRC+ (where 100 is average and higher is better) of 89 this year, indicating that these fundamentals aren't supposed to add up to production this good. Buxton's talent is breaking baseball a little bit, as it often does, when he's healthy enough to put it on full display. Now, there are two questions remaining: Can he keep this up, despite the gravity of the game and its tendency to pull players back toward less extreme combinations of process and outcome? And the scarier one: can he stay healthy long enough to allow us to get an answer to the first thing?

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[MinnInPa]

MVP caliber season ??????  he K's 36% of the time..get back to me when that gets below 25%..... Plus, a lot of his K's come at rally time.....1st two guys on .... runner in scoring position......K.....i think its a Twins disease

[Twinsfreak23]

Striking out a less does not make you a better baseball player. Yeah, he strikes out a lot. But his value is undeniable. 25% strikeout rate would be nice. But it's never been his game. Look at Correa, he's almost never striking out.. but he's also almost never driving the ball with any authority and has the lowest OPS on the team among regulars.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Buck is a MVP-caliber player. He has been a stabilizing force for the Twins, keeping them from falling too far during their hugh slump. Can he maintain this great start? IMO. no, he hasn't yet put in a full season, so he'll need some rest. I'd only like for him to be 100% for the postseason & be able to cut down on his Ks.

[bean5302]

Buxton is not in the same league as Mickey Mantle or Alex Rodriguez. He never will be. It's so utterly disrespectful and trashy to make those kinds of comparisons. Grosses me out. Both Mantle and A-Rod had 10+ WAR seasons on their way to 110+ bWAR careers. Buxton might end up with one 5 WAR season and 35 career bWAR.

Buxton is a very good player when he's on the field, and if he were to play 150 G, which he never will, he'll put up 5-6 WAR. Right now, a quarter of the way through the season, Buxton is on pace for 150 G, 6.0 bWAR or 6.4 fWAR. Right on target. He's going to get hurt, but at least Baldelli has maybe, finally, learned to stop randomly sitting guys to recharge their health gauge. We should get the maximum possible value from Buxton this year using Rocco's revelation on not sitting guys 3x a week, which I expect will be 80-120 games, depending on what injuries come up.

Buxton's pretty much always been a streaky, lower walk, free swinging, high strikeout guy. He's bounced around a bit trying to limit strikeouts and increase walks in 2022-2023, but trying to be less aggressive stole away home runs. There's some small sample size factor involved in the data and the "despite a horrendous start" which is is just a normal process for a streaky hitter. Cold streak, hot streak, cold streak, hot streak. When guys don't/can't take walks, they have to rely on batted ball luck. Add in tons of strikeouts and there the batted ball luck swings even harder. Thus, streaky. Perhaps Buxton's microwave burned the popcorn one time and he had to deal with the cloud figuratively/literally hanging over him he had to push through? The more excuses for Buxton not being MVP caliber the better around here, after all.

It seems like Buxton's been more aggressive at swinging at pitches high and inside this year, and he's whiffed at down and away a bit more, but he's actually had better discipline holding off down and away. I appreciate the details, but I don't think we have enough data to draw a conclusion from it. I think it is possible to look at how pitchers are approaching him though. Down and away is the recipe. 26% of all the pitches Buxton sees are down and away or 250% the rate of any other zone. Pitchers go after Buxton the same way they attack Judge, but Judge has much better discipline laying off low and away.

[terrydactyls]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Buck is a MVP-caliber player. He has been a stabilizing force for the Twins, keeping them from falling too far during their hugh slump. Can he maintain this great start? IMO. no, he hasn't yet put in a full season, so he'll need some rest. I'd only like for him to be 100% for the postseason & be able to cut down on his Ks.

Who is this Hugh Slump of which you speak?

[Otaknam]

It’s Minnesota fans kiss of death to talk about Buxton’s good health. Expecting a pulled hamstring at Baltimore (tongue in cheek)!

[LambchoP]

Buck has been a lot of fun to watch this year. He is still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. We all knew he could hit HRs, but it's been really cool to see him swiping bases again. I was starting to think that part of his game was done for. If he can cut his strikeouts down and learn to take more walks, he'd have more SB opportunities. I think if he can both stay healthy and avoid prolonged strikeout slumps, he could be an all star this year for us. Has he ever been an all star?

 

 

[jorgenswest]

So fun to watch the defense and the speed on the bases. In those streaks when his bat is going strong it is glimpses of Willie Mays from when I was a kid. I am not saying he is Mays because Mays did it every day for a few decades but when Buxton has stretches like he did a week ago I see Mays.

[Linus]

I’m hopeful on the health front because prior to the plica surgery they could never really identify the problem. On e the plica surgery took place he has had much better health. Buck is always going to be streaky because he embodies the Twins hitting philosophy of try to pull and elevate everything. I think he has the strength and bat speed to still do damage if he took the outside pitch to right center. He had a ringing double the other day doing that. Anyway just so much fun to watch. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

It’s Minnesota fans kiss of death to talk about Buxton’s good health. Expecting a pulled hamstring at Baltimore (tongue in cheek)!

After reading two articles on the day off, Buck will come up lane and Coulombe's arm will fall off tonight.

 

Except rain will likely postpone the inevitable. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Buck has been a lot of fun to watch this year. He is still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. We all knew he could hit HRs, but it's been really cool to see him swiping bases again. I was starting to think that part of his game was done for. If he can cut his strikeouts down and learn to take more walks, he'd have more SB opportunities. I think if he can both stay healthy and avoid prolonged strikeout slumps, he could be an all star this year for us. Has he ever been an all star?

 

 

2022 All Star

I wish him well. He's never been able to be Him because of his health and because his propensity to strikeout in big spots has resulted in him being anti-clutch. But he's still young enough to still have some truly memorable moments that define his career. Fingers crossed for him. 

[bean5302]

46 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’m hopeful on the health front because prior to the plica surgery they could never really identify the problem. On e the plica surgery took place he has had much better health. Buck is always going to be streaky because he embodies the Twins hitting philosophy of try to pull and elevate everything. I think he has the strength and bat speed to still do damage if he took the outside pitch to right center. He had a ringing double the other day doing that. Anyway just so much fun to watch. 

I'd like to be more optimistic, but the reports were clear that Buxton will have chronic inflammation in that knee because of all the scar tissue and surgical intervention.

Buxton's also dealt with frequent hip, back, wrist, and migraine issues. The hip issues have been potentially linked to the knee problems if Buxton was stressing the hip while overcompensating for the sore knee so perhaps he can avoid that one, but the back spasms and wrist issues become more and more likely the more games Buxton plays. Buxton's outstanding speed and leg strenth has come with a couple hammy injuries over the years as well.

It's all speculative, but Buxton is into his 30s at this point. It seems very unlikely he's going to be healthier now than when he was 25, but I think it'd be truly awesome if he were. Both for the Twins and honestly, for Buxton himself. I can't imagine how amazing it'd be for him to qualify this year and be able to reflect on that accomplishment with his family and friends. That said... it's May and there's 75% of the season left to go.

[Exiled in Illinois]

I get the concerns about the k's and health, but a healthy Buxton playing at full throttle is a beautiful thing to behold.  Going to enjoy it for as long as it lasts, and hopefully, that will be a for a good, long time.

[IndianaTwin]

Further adding to the kiss of death, he's even on pace to becoming the franchise's first member of the 30/30 club. 

[Coach Wheels]

Completely uninterested in comparing Buxton to any former HOF player, he's not close to that caliber.

I'm thrilled hes been healthy through 40+ games and I've enjoyed watching in CF. The Twins have 120+ games left, let's hope we see him all year; we're a playoff team with him in CF and the rotation staying healthy as well.

[mluebker]

Great, if he can keep it up. But the headline is right--this is unusual. Fingers crossed.

Meanwhile, what will it take to jump-start the under-performing shortstop. I see he's finally hitting his weight (and a little more!), but can someone wave the magic wand over him, too?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Buxtons biggest issue in the last 4-5 years has been the knee, and fingers cross that appears to be fixed with the procedure they did in 2023.   2024 we saw what was healthy, relieved Buxton.  In 2025 we are seeing a confident Buxton that has had the days limit restrictions removed.   He has made smarter plays on balls at the fence sliding or slowing down to avoid unnecessary injuries.  He has been a primary driver in this winning streak and I hope he continues it this season.  A healthy buxton makes the contract look silly.  A hurt buxton makes the contract look like an overpay.   If we can get both peak Buxton and Correa you are looking at a pretty potent team.  

[dcswede]

With that kind of a chase rate and futility outside the zone, why would anybody pitch him over the plate?

[Mrs. Baseball]

 

Completely uninterested in comparing Buxton to any former HOF player, he's not close to that caliber.

I'm thrilled hes been healthy through 40+ games and I've enjoyed watching in CF. The Twins have 120+ games left, let's hope we see him all year; we're a playoff team with him in CF and the rotation staying healthy as well.

He is close to that "caliber." Obviously injuries, etc.

I had the opportunity to first lay eyes on Byron on a work assignment in Cedar Rapids in 2013. First at bat I saw he beat out a routine 4-3. Okay then. Later in the series he homered onto the roof of a house across the street, an accomplishment only authored once before. By Mike Trout. A bit later I was set up to interview the home owner in the left field picnic area when he hit a fly ball to center field. On a breezy night it was misplayed by the CF and when I turned to look back toward the infield he was already rounding 3rd and scored standing on a 4 base error. Naturally the series also included a couple of routinely spectacular catches. When I think of Buxton that's what I think of. Injuries will keep him from any HOF discussion but a generational talent for the ages. Please stay healthy young man and string together some healthy seasons. You've earned it.

I also need to mention this. In my experience humble, thoughtful and genuinely a fine young man.

 

[NYCTK]

 

He is close to that "caliber." Obviously injuries, etc.

...

I also need to mention this. In my experience humble, thoughtful and genuinely a fine young man.

Idk. Best we can do is compare him to, I believe, the greatest defensive CF in the previous generation, Andruw Jones. I don't think it's controversial to say Jones should be in the HOF, but he's hardly top of the CF class. Even so, I guess you can make the argument that Buxton lines up, talent wise, with the future HOF Jones. Both exceptional fielders with 111 wRC+. 

As for this desire to fans to vouch for the character of a man they do not know, it always makes me super uncomfortable. They are an entertainer and you enjoyed the entertainment they provided and the manner in which they did carried themselves while they did so. All valid.

But Twins fans twice celebrated long-time CF that turned out to be pretty different than their public personas. I, for one, will not make it thrice. 

[CRF]

Now, if only he could get it through his head to lay off that low outside sweeper.

[JD-TWINS]

 

MVP caliber season ??????  he K's 36% of the time..get back to me when that gets below 25%..... Plus, a lot of his K's come at rally time.....1st two guys on .... runner in scoring position......K.....i think its a Twins disease

.299 BA & .607 Slug% for a month - as good a defensive CF as there is…….not what he once was but very good on defense. This is a MVP caliber ( in the race) season. Many, many excellent producers in today’s game strike out at a high rate.

Hitting the ball at 95mph exit velocity in 55% of the times he puts it in play is impressive.

He’s could push counts more and try to walk a few times more per month & his strikeouts are exorbitant……..he’s producing regularly……there is no “perfect” in today’s game.

He gets extra bases on heads-up aggressive running as well as anyone in the game!

[wabene]

The thing that is encouraging for Buxton's career during his 30's is the plica diagnosis and surgery. A problematic plica is, or has been, tough to diagnose. It is confused with patella tendinitis or just soft tissue degeneration. Soft tissue degeneration, or damage to the meniscus, is pretty much irreversible. The silver lining in the years Buxton's knee was misdiagnosed is that maybe there is no soft tissue damage. Or little damage. If so, the plica surgery is usually a very successful surgery, If the knee has little soft tissue damage, we may witness this kind of athleticism for years to come.

[Mrs. Baseball]

 

Idk. Best we can do is compare him to, I believe, the greatest defensive CF in the previous generation, Andruw Jones. I don't think it's controversial to say Jones should be in the HOF, but he's hardly top of the CF class. Even so, I guess you can make the argument that Buxton lines up, talent wise, with the future HOF Jones. Both exceptional fielders with 111 wRC+. 

As for this desire to fans to vouch for the character of a man they do not know, it always makes me super uncomfortable. They are an entertainer and you enjoyed the entertainment they provided and the manner in which they did carried themselves while they did so. All valid.

But Twins fans twice celebrated long-time CF that turned out to be pretty different than their public personas. I, for one, will not make it thrice. 

Not feeding a fan's desire to vouch for his character. Covered the team for many years as part of the TC media. I stand by that opinion.

[HerbieFan]

I don't know how long the health will hold up, but MAN this version of Buxton is fun to watch.  Let's all just enjoy it while it lasts.

[Ole St Carleton]

Trade him now before the next injury. Terrible clutch hitter. Cheap owners would love to dump his salary and we have several young outfielders to build upon.

[Mrs. Baseball]

 

Trade him now before the next injury. Terrible clutch hitter. Cheap owners would love to dump his salary and we have several young outfielders to build upon.

There is this thing called the no-trade clause. Perhaps you've heard of it. Or perhaps not.

[Ole St Carleton]

 

There is this thing called the no-trade clause. Perhaps you've heard of it. Or perhaps not.

Perhaps you've heard of a player waiving his no-trade clause. Dangle the Dodgers or Yankees in front of Buxton and he'll "waive" goodbye. Or perhaps not...

[Mrs. Baseball]

 

Perhaps you've heard of a player waiving his no-trade clause. Dangle the Dodgers or Yankees in front of Buxton and he'll "waive" goodbye. Or perhaps not...

Perhaps you've heard Buxton state very clearly that he wants to finish his career with the Twins. He is not going anywhere. Period.