Minnesota Twins' Three Offseason Additions Have Already Outplayed Their Contracts

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Late last offseason, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President Joe Pohlad greenlit extra spending room for President of Baseball and Business Operations Derek Falvey, allowing the long-time Twins decision-maker to sign veterans Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Ty France to one-year contracts worth a combined $10.5 million. Adding Coulombe, Bader, and France served a last-minute effort to improve the club at depth-deficient areas, and less than two months into the season, all three investments are providing excess value.

Over 39 games, the trio of Coulombe, Bader, and France have generated the following Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR):

• Coulombe: 0.7 fWAR
• Bader: 1.3 fWAR
• France: 0.4 fWAR

Highlighted by Coulombe's lockdown efforts in the bullpen, Bader's platinum glove-deserving outfield defense, and France's steady effort at first base and the plate, the Twins trio of offseason additions have become positive contributors who look to be part of the core that attempts to return the organization to the postseason this October.

Now, significant debate exists over how much money one win-above-replacement is worth. The Athletic's Eno Sarris has speculated that it is worth roughly $12 million. FanGraphs's Dan Szymborski has professed it's worth roughly $5 million. Twins Daily's John Bonnes thinks it's worth about $8 million, and Brock Beauchamp swears it's now worth over $8 million (if you couldn't tell, Twins Daily's finest discussed this very topic in their Slack channel). Nevertheless, the trio of Coulombe, Bader, and France have already outplayed their contracts from a dollars-to-fWAR perspective.

According to FanGraphs's Value resource, the trio of veterans' early-season performances have been worth the following monetary figures:

• Coulombe: $5.5 million
• Bader: $10.1 million
• France: $3.1 million

That being the case, Coulombe has outplayed his one-year, $3 million contract by $2.5 million; Bader has outplayed his one-year, $6.5 million contract by $3.6 million, and France has outplayed his one-year, $1 million contract by $2.1 million.

Considering France has posted a 115 wRC+ over 157 plate appearances while demonstrating improved defense at first base, it is unsurprising that he already nearly tripled the value of his one-year, $1 million deal. However, the fact that the club has squeezed out this much value from a mid-to-high leverage left-handed reliever and assumed fourth outfielder illustrates the commensal nature of the three contracts the Twins front office allocated late last offseason.

The first WAR earned is not what teams pay big dollars for. The real "profit" manifests when players become worth 2.0-or-3.0 WAR. It is nearly impossible for relievers to become worth 2.0-or-3.0 WAR unless they are last season's version of Emmanuel Clase or 2016 Zack Britton. That said, Coulombe could reasonably earn over 1.0 WAR this season, which would be significant value for Minnesota. Given Bader and France's hot start to the season, there is reason to believe both position players will accumulate a 2.0-to-3.0 WAR season. The club has already received plus value from the two position player veterans. That said, if they keep performing at the rate they have to begin their 2025 campaigns, the Twins could be the recipient of three of MLB's most profitable one-year deals from last offseason's free agency cycle.

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[Guest]

Had to look for the satire warning above the lead.  FO makes three sound offseason transactions?  Sacre bleu!

[DJL44]

Does anyone here still think Bader was a bad signing because we already had DaShawn Keirsey and Austin Martin?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On paper, none of those acquisitions were sexy — although my wife might argue that Bader is — but they have been very sound pickups.  Offensively, Bader seems to be playing out of his mind right now, but the other two seem to be doing pretty much what we thought and hoped they might.  Truthfully, France is the guy I thought likely to overperform the most, but he’s not there yet.   Let’s hope it’s sustainable, they stay healthy, and the Twins can keep winning ballgames!

[thelanges5]

No such thing as a bad one year contract. Bader also brings energy and great hair which cannot be captured by any spreadsheet. 

[Blyleven2011]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves , its a very long season ...

It's nice that the twins are winning and winning is the name of the game ...

All games matter now since the start of the season started out bad and every win counts from here on out , not the tomorrow's another day crap , players need to stay focused and thrive with the confidence of winners ...

Coulombe  , Bader and France stand out more because the rest of the lineup was slow to start the season ...

Bader , France and Coulombe are contributing more than any fan ever  dreamed they would , is it sustainable , it would help , it's a long season but I am enjoying what they have brought to the twins so far ...

Let's wait till the allstar break , if we have several players worthy of allstar selections then maybe we can consider this team capable of winning the division  ...

We've got a long way to go ...

Go Twins  , I like winning streaks ...

[LambchoP]

Imagine where the team would be without these guys. Would be tough relying on Miranda and Julien at 1b and Keirsey as an everyday OF. So far Coloumbe has been perfect out of the pen. Still wish we had a second lock down lefty, but it's hard not to be happy with what these guys have done so far. Bader brings so much fun and energy to this team. He's been a blast to watch. Him and Buxton out in the OF is elite as can be!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves , its a very long season ...

It's nice that the twins are winning and winning is the name of the game ...

All games matter now since the start of the season started out bad and every win counts from here on out , not the tomorrow's another day crap , players need to stay focused and thrive with the confidence of winners ...

Coulombe  , Bader and France stand out more because the rest of the lineup was slow to start the season ...

Bader , France and Coulombe are contributing more than any fan ever  dreamed they would , is it sustainable , it would help , it's a long season but I am enjoying what they have brought to the twins so far ...

Let's wait till the allstar break , if we have several players worthy of allstar selections then maybe we can consider this team capable of winning the division  ...

We've got a long way to go ...

Go Twins  , I like winning streaks ...

“They stand out more……”

France - as a $1M signing is waay above any expectations (leads team in RBI) regardless of other’s slow starts - Bader with a 135OPS+ & .289 BA would stand out if he was next to Hank Aaron in OF - Coulombe hasn’t given up a run, zero, which typically stands out on any staff!

[JD-TWINS]

My assumption is this article is Fiction - the player’s stats are fabricated as well - no way the Twin’s FO makes a good signing via FA - no way.

Other than last year’s $5.5M signing of the Team’s leading HR & RBI guy that also happened to win the Gold Glove at 1B. Maybe that didn’t happen either???

[Linus]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

“They stand out more……”

France - as a $1M signing is waay above any expectations (leads team in RBI) regardless of other’s slow starts - Bader with a 135OPS+ & .289 BA would stand out if he was next to Hank Aaron in OF - Coulombe hasn’t given up a run, zero, which typically stands out on any staff!

He would stand out next to Hank Aaron?  Either you are a little excited or completely unaware of Hank Aaron’s career. 

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, Linus said:

He would stand out next to Hank Aaron?  Either you are a little excited or completely unaware of Hank Aaron’s career. 

Hank Aaron’s my favorite player…….have a framed ‘57 World Series pennant in my basement……got it from my older brother in 1972. Am making a point that “the slow start of the Team” is not the reason Bader “seems” to be having a good year. I’m not looking it up, but at a .289 BA, I doubt 10% of MLB is hitting at a higher average - same with his OPS+. 

Eddie Matthews got plenty of press next to Henry………I’m not suggesting Bader is a star (didn’t like the signing)……I’m saying he’s earned some notoriety based on what he’s doing not because others are underperforming.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

He would stand out next to Hank Aaron?  Either you are a little excited or completely unaware of Hank Aaron’s career. 

btw - Henry is 3rd behind Rose & Cobb in hits…..should be #1 in HR …… most RBI …..most Total Bases…….ever! Grossly underrated when discussing all-time offensive players!

[karcherd]

52 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Other than last year’s $5.5M signing of the Team’s leading HR & RBI guy that also happened to win the Gold Glove at 1B. Maybe that didn’t happen either???

Let's not make Santana into something he's not.  It was a decent signing but led to no postseason success and led to us having to sign France this year.  They didn't give Miranda a chance to find out if he could handle the regular 1B job.  Maybe if he showed that he couldn't they would have signed a real upgrade this year other than France.  Santana leading the team in HR's and RBI with 23 and 71 says more about the rest of the team than Santana.  Those were decent numbers but when leading the team not so much.

[GNess]

So far so good. I really like what Bader offers. But this is a very Twins slanted analysis - the fact that the Twins decide to sift through the pile of remaining free agents generally late in the process and sometimes find bargains that pay off is not the mode of a serious franchise.

Many posters on TD bemoan the money Correa earns as if the Twins should save that money for more bargain hunting.. Yet, Correa remains a true star-level player and leader. Seems backwards to me.

This culture of scarcity in which the Twins FO is applauded for successful "bargains" is one of the main reasons it has been 33 long years and counting since the last World Series appearance. 

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Bader , France and Coulombe are contributing more than any fan ever  dreamed they would , is it sustainable , it would help , it's a long season but I am enjoying what they have brought to the twins so far 

I will bet Coulombe gives up a run before the season ends.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, karcherd said:

Let's not make Santana into something he's not.  It was a decent signing but led to no postseason success and led to us having to sign France this year.  They didn't give Miranda a chance to find out if he could handle the regular 1B job.  Maybe if he showed that he couldn't they would have signed a real upgrade this year other than France.  Santana leading the team in HR's and RBI with 23 and 71 says more about the rest of the team than Santana.  Those were decent numbers but when leading the team not so much.

Ah, a little Debbie Downer, just what the fans need.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Hank Aaron’s my favorite player…….have a framed ‘57 World Series pennant in my basement……got it from my older brother in 1972. Am making a point that “the slow start of the Team” is not the reason Bader “seems” to be having a good year. I’m not looking it up, but at a .289 BA, I doubt 10% of MLB is hitting at a higher average - same with his OPS+. 

Eddie Matthews got plenty of press next to Henry………I’m not suggesting Bader is a star (didn’t like the signing)……I’m saying he’s earned some notoriety based on what he’s doing not because others are underperforming.

Ok call me a purist or a curmudgeon but Harrison Bader and Henry Aaron should never even be in the same topic of conversation. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I will bet Coulombe gives up a run before the season ends.

Bad bet , but thanks for the opportunity  , watching him pitch he kinda resembles theilbar  but doesn't throw as hard  ...

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

btw - Henry is 3rd behind Rose & Cobb in hits…..should be #1 in HR …… most RBI …..most Total Bases…….ever! Grossly underrated when discussing all-time offensive players!

Henry Aaron was the most consistent player to play the game , some say he never slumped ...

He is still the homerun champ in my book , he got elected to every allstar game , even when they had 2 a season  , no one can beat his production at the plate ...

If he isn't rated number 1 he is definitely in the top 5 to play this game of baseball without using steroids  ...

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, karcherd said:

Let's not make Santana into something he's not.  It was a decent signing but led to no postseason success and led to us having to sign France this year.  They didn't give Miranda a chance to find out if he could handle the regular 1B job.  Maybe if he showed that he couldn't they would have signed a real upgrade this year other than France.  Santana leading the team in HR's and RBI with 23 and 71 says more about the rest of the team than Santana.  Those were decent numbers but when leading the team not so much.

They are real numbers. He posts - unlike Miranda! Jose has been hurt 3 straight seasons & he’s 26…… My point isn’t Carlos Santana is a superstar ……. Cleveland saw it was a good idea to sign him for 2 years at $12M/yr at age 39……. they aren’t exactly big spenders.

The Twins signed France for $1M. Miranda would make $760K if he could muster the ability to play and perform. He got sent down because he was brutal at the plate & this was with 3B wide open for him with Lewis out. Then he got hurt handling a case of water. He deserves more of an opportunity than he’s been given? Don’t think so. Who is the better option for ‘25?

Santana was a MUCH maligned signing by Twins FO in ‘24 - by end of April many TD followers wanted him DFA’d. He won the Gold Glove - he actually lead the Team in offensive punch……….he wasn’t MVP level but he probably was the Twin’s MVP.

My point is that Santana was a success - Stewart is a success - Coulombe, Bader, & France are all successes to date! The slant is that the guys in the front office aren’t total screw ups is my point……..and that’s all that is portrayed here almost daily, “they’re clueless”.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, karcherd said:

Let's not make Santana into something he's not.  It was a decent signing but led to no postseason success and led to us having to sign France this year.  They didn't give Miranda a chance to find out if he could handle the regular 1B job.  Maybe if he showed that he couldn't they would have signed a real upgrade this year other than France.  Santana leading the team in HR's and RBI with 23 and 71 says more about the rest of the team than Santana.  Those were decent numbers but when leading the team not so much.

Miranda can’t…..period.

Santana: ”It was a decent signing but less to no post-season success.” What? How is the guy who was a leader on offense and defense in any way responsible for the rest of the Team not performing??? They spent a meager $5.5M on him ……his year was so bad or uneventful that the Guardians decided to more than double his salary and commit to 2 years.

[twinstalker]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Does anyone here still think Bader was a bad signing because we already had DaShawn Keirsey and Austin Martin?

People think that way.  While admitting Bader is not nearly as good as his numbers suggest, what can't be taken away from him is that he's a real ballplayer who makes a difference on defense, a defensively better Dan Gladden.  There are a number of these guys sitting out there while some of us are feeling sorry for Keirsey at AAA.  It's a business.  This is not your daughter's team and Keirsey is not your daughter's best friend.

Another note: if comps salary vs production are being done, we'll want to pro-rate them, note that WAR goes negative (cumulative WAR can go down), and these are candidates for RTTM (the number one requirement being that they were chosen based on their "extreme" nature).  But...

Bader can (and probably will) suck at bat but was a good signing.  Coloumbe was a no-brainer to begin with and has never commanded a higher price.  France would have to have an injury again to not be worth his min salary.  I don't know that anyone could have legitimately argued that in a vacuum they were bad signings.  They argument all along is whether they were the best the Twins could do.

[DocBauer]

Coulombe is basically throwing the way he has the previous 2 seasons. He's doing what I hoped for. I liked the signing a lot.

I liked France at 30yo and coming off an injury...but good 1st half in 2024...a lot more than Rizzo and a few other 1B once the top couple options were signed elsewhere. Doesn't mean I was crazy about the move, I just liked it a lot better and felt he might be a legitimate rebound option. So far so good. He's looking a lot like his 2022 All Star version.

I never liked or hated the Bader signing. I was pretty neutral. I wanted a more powerful RH corner bat and let Keirsey, Castro, and Rodriguez back up CF. I thought the power bat made more sense. But Bader's enthusiasm and defense have been wonderful, as have some SB and HR/XB. But can he keep this up? It would ABSOLUTELY be his best season EVER if he could, or keep it even close to his current production. Still, he's done the job so far.

[NYCTK]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Does anyone here still think Bader was a bad signing because we already had DaShawn Keirsey and Austin Martin?

I'm serving up crow all season long baby. 

[Brandon]

Coulombe was always a solid signing at 3 million.  The question with him is how much of the season will he be available?  
Ty France at 1 million is throwing mud against the wall to see if he sticks.  He is out hitting Santana at 1/12th the price.  He was signed at a price to be a bench player.  
Bader is great defensively and the offense is higher than advertised and the small sample size keeps growing.  Even if he regresses to a .750 OPS that’s a big upgrade for him.  

these guys were signed to be role players but are taking on larger roles.  And these guys are clearly a good if not great value for their cost. 

[jud6312]

Twins Daily, brought to you by FanGraphs and their completely worthless cost valuations.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, jud6312 said:

Twins Daily, brought to you by FanGraphs and their completely worthless cost valuations.

Except, it comes close every year. You have better data? Anything?

[jud6312]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Except, it comes close every year. You have better data? Anything?

I don't because I have a life. And, if we're being honest, even if I did, you'd pi$$ all over it like you do with anyone that disagrees with you on anything in this site.

[jud6312]

I suddenly remembered why I logged out of this clown show for a long time. Time to do that again.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

I don't because I have a life. And, if we're being honest, even if I did, you'd pi$$ all over it like you do with anyone that disagrees with you on anything in this site.

Mature.