Minnesota Twins' Three Offseason Additions Have Already Outplayed Their Contracts

[stringer bell]

I’d say all three guys have exceeded expectations. Bader is what the Twins thought/hoped they were getting with Margot and with added swagger. Coulombe shows you don’t have to throw 99 to be effective and France has held up well at first base and is getting barely more than pre-arbitration money. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I’d say all three guys have exceeded expectations. Bader is what the Twins thought/hoped they were getting with Margot and with added swagger. Coulombe shows you don’t have to throw 99 to be effective and France has held up well at first base and is getting barely more than pre-arbitration money. 

Agreed. I was very wrong about France for sure. 

[carewser]

I’m old enough to remember the. ‘65 World Series, and this is the first time I’ve seen the word “commensal” in a sports story.
Very nice!

[Western SD Fan]

I'll definitely have a helping of crow with France.  All three are basically on prove-it deals as Bader has a mutual option for next year.  I think this says more about the rest of the team, especially the position players, needing to get back to expectations.  Let's hope this winning streak finally starts warming up the offense before the pitching eventually cools off from being elite.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I'm serving up crow all season long baby. 

I'm not eating any crow on Bader.

We won't talk about France. 

I don't think I cared enough about Coulombe to comment. He's been really really good. Valuable. 

[Brandon]

France for 1 million is basically a bench player/ option for playing time that you don’t feel bad if you cut loose.  He is starting and hitting ok. Not great but solid and at 1 million that’s a good value.  Miranda or Keaschall or both could easily push Ty down the depth chart and injuries are preventing that from happening.  Wallner injury helps Ty too because Bader is worth more playing time right now which could push Larnarch or Wallner into more DH or 1B duty taking time away from Ty.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

The one that shocks me is Bader. I was hopeful on France and I think Coloumbe has been a good pitcher for a while, undervalued because he’s a bullpen guy. I one that shocks me is Bader. He’s always been a tease, greatglive in the outfield and looks good in the uniform, but he could never hit worth a crap. Classic fourth outfielder with a good glove and no bat,  so I thought the Twins were way overpaying him. Look, I doubt that it will last all year but if the guy can even hit 265/325/.400, he’s a home run.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

France for 1 million is basically a bench player/ option for playing time that you don’t feel bad if you cut loose.  He is starting and hitting ok. Not great but solid and at 1 million that’s a good value.  Miranda or Keaschall or both could easily push Ty down the depth chart and injuries are preventing that from happening.  Wallner injury helps Ty too because Bader is worth more playing time right now which could push Larnarch or Wallner into more DH or 1B duty taking time away from Ty.  

I think Baldelli made it clear that France was going to play a lot this year, just as he was pretty clear that Santana was his first baseman last year. France's performance has done nothing to change the manager's opinion, I'm sure.

It would take a long hot spell for Miranda to supplant France and Wallner or Larnach are outfielders--very unlikely that either of them would be moved to first base in mid-season. France is going to be a regular for the foreseeable future. His performance has merited it and the lack of better options would seem to seal the deal. 

[Whitey333]

FanGraphs is a joke.  As is many of the new analytics.  The Twins with this FO frequently dumpster dived for bargain basement deals.  It hardly ever works.  The 3 additions mentioned are nk different.  They are playing well now.  The kind of baseball that is fun to watch  but it took them 40 games just to get to 500.  Making FanGraphs seem like a legit financial estimator is as silly as saying Correa is underpaid at 35 million a year.  Ridiculous.

[Doctor Wu]

I didn't hate any of these three signings, but at the same time, none of them seemed "sexy" or looked like difference makers. But yeah, thus far this season those three players have been worth the money and more. Still a lot of season left to play, and most likely Coulombe gives up a run at some point (which eerily reminds me of last year's early season no-runs allowed pitcher, Josh Staumont), but you got to be satisfied with what these guys have done so far. 

[Fatbat]

The important deal is the Marg0-39 is not pinch hitting. If you base data off that low bar, Bader is a small sample HOF and the FO deserves all the credit with a small amount of thanks to the Pohlads for opening up the pocket book. Bader is exciting to watch and he will draw fans, especially kids, to Target field. 
If these 3 hired guns have career seasons, we are in for a great summer of entertainment! 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

FanGraphs is a joke.  As is many of the new analytics.  The Twins with this FO frequently dumpster dived for bargain basement deals.  It hardly ever works.  The 3 additions mentioned are nk different.  They are playing well now.  The kind of baseball that is fun to watch  but it took them 40 games just to get to 500.  Making FanGraphs seem like a legit financial estimator is as silly as saying Correa is underpaid at 35 million a year.  Ridiculous.

Here is the harsh reality.  The Twins have far less revenue as compared to many clubs and therefore have far less to spend.  Getting bargains is paramount to success.  They can sign the occasional Correa / Donaldson or Lopez but the only way to combat revenue disparity is to produce more for less.  In other words, find bargains.  If you look back over the past 20 years, teams in the bottom half of revenue that added meaningful production via free agency did so with primarily with players that outperformed their contracts.

Take a look.  Pick a handful of successful teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Then, go to FanGraphs and sort by WAR.  Find the players acquired as free agents and then look at production/dollar spent across all the free agents on their roster.  If you look at the most successful teams in terms of number of 90+ win teams in the past couple decades (Cleveland/Oakland/Tampa Bay/Milwaukee)  You wont find a lot of free agent spending but you will find a lot of under $10M AAV players that contributed to their success.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

FanGraphs is a joke.  As is many of the new analytics.  The Twins with this FO frequently dumpster dived for bargain basement deals.  It hardly ever works.  The 3 additions mentioned are nk different.  They are playing well now.  The kind of baseball that is fun to watch  but it took them 40 games just to get to 500.  Making FanGraphs seem like a legit financial estimator is as silly as saying Correa is underpaid at 35 million a year.  Ridiculous.

And yet, their people keep getting hired by teams. One of their people is paid by teams for his work right now. Other than emotion, what argument can you factually make for your statement?

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think Baldelli made it clear that France was going to play a lot this year, just as he was pretty clear that Santana was his first baseman last year. France's performance has done nothing to change the manager's opinion, I'm sure.

It would take a long hot spell for Miranda to supplant France and Wallner or Larnach are outfielders--very unlikely that either of them would be moved to first base in mid-season. France is going to be a regular for the foreseeable future. His performance has merited it and the lack of better options would seem to seal the deal. 

I was saying that as of the time of signing.  I am sure the plan was to have him start but if he ended up in a bench role due to lack of success, France could still be of value as a bench player.  or He is not a loss if he played bad and was let go.  

He has earned a longer leash as a starter.  I do think Wallner and Keaschall and Lewis and Lee all up and hitting could spell France some to keep the rookies developing in the lineup though.  Not saying thats how it will play out but its in the realm of possibilities.

[Linus]

No question all three are exceeding most people’s expectations.  I look at the France acquisition differently. Bader and Coulombe were / are complimentary pieces. First base is supposed to be a key offensive position; one where you can go with a real slugger who may be limited in other areas. That we don’t have a real slugger for that position and have to have France there indicates a development failure. And nothing against France he is playing to the best of his abilities but this is one of the prices we pay for not developing players well enough. 

[Trov]

It is hard to evaluate WAR to money paid.  It is also hard to say early returns will pay full seasons dividends.  It is possible France falls flat later in year, or Bader comes just a glove, unlikely that fades.  We have seen pen guys falling apart.  

I am happy with what each has given, based on the money paid.  However, what gets frustrating at times, is that I feel GM's see those as huge wins for the themselves, the look what I got for this price, I saw something no one else did.  That is something we ran into with Ryan.  Sure, the owners may be handcuffing the spending, but it leads to the owners saying well you did it before do it again. 

We have seen the bargain bin shopping fail many times.  Yes, sometimes you get a good deal.  Is France one of the best 1st base for the price yes.  If we had more could we have gone out to sign someone else, that would be better overall, most likely.  I personally wish we could have gone internal option, but sadly we have no 1st base guys ready to come up. 

[bean5302]

This $8MM = 1.0 WAR thinking is far to narrow minded because it does not reflect the market.
First, teams do not try to buy 1.0 WAR at $8MM, but with injuries and poor performance, that's where big free agency contracts wind up.
Second, teams do not spend linear money for WAR. The more WAR a player produces, the bigger premium a team will pay. Example, Nicky Lopez got MLB minimum despite being a consistent 1.0 WAR player.
Third, the average cost of 1 WAR in MLB is about $2.5MM, not $8.0MM because most players are pre-arb, arb and they do not make top free agent money. It's easy to find a 0.5 or 1.0 WAR player in the minors.
Fourth, WAR is not a counting stat. It can and does often go backwards.

For starting position players, you need 2.5+ WAR to be truly earning your spot, over that, and you're helping a team to the playoffs. Anything north of 2.0 WAR is good enough. Anything under that, and you're dragging on the team.

For a relief pitcher, anything over 0.5 WAR is gravy.

Now, onto how these players are producing.

Bader = $6.25MM + $1.5MM buyout. Bader is looking like an absolute steal, especially with his hot streak lately. He was literally elite on 5/7. Exactly elite. His wRC+ was 1337 that day. That said, his xwOBA is dramatically lower at .315 (league average), and Bader's career xwOBA and wOBA line up pretty well. In the bigger picture, was he worth it so far? Yes. The Twins need, need, need a CF to back up Buxton and Bader was cheap and he can play defense. He's been healthy so far, but the real question is whether or not he'll be healthy when Buxton inevitably goes to the IL? That's really why Bader is here.

France = $1.0MM. France has produced 0.1 WAR. It's not like $1.0MM is breaking the bank so it's fine, but in terms of does he help the team win ball games, the answer is no, not really. That said, France's xwOBA is All Star caliber at .370 thanks to a lot of barrels where the baseball hasn't been wearing glasses so it lands directly into gloves. The nitty gritty is Miranda defecated in the bed this year and the Twins don't have a lot in the way of 1B depth so France just holding his own at the plate has been helpful. Worth it.

Coulombe is stranding 100% of his base runners and he hasn't allowed a home run... yet. SSSS at 16.0 innings, but it's gotten him 0.8 WAR so far. Certainly looks like a great signing, but a single game could reverse him to negative WAR. With Kody Funderburk the only lefty remaining in the depth charts, yeah. We needed Coulombe bad.