Let's Overanalyze the Opening Day Lineup!

[Nick Nelson]

It's been 180 days since we had a starting lineup to gaze upon. You better believe we're going to read way too much into it. Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

In general, far too much is made of the way managers choose to construct their batting orders. At the end of the day, the impact of lineup sequencing on run production is far less dramatic than most people believe. It's not that big of a deal.

Having said that, the Opening Day lineup does seem to have an added layer of meaning. It can tell us a lot about how the manager views various hitters, how he envisions rallies coming together, how he intends to set up late-game scenarios. Even someone like Rocco Baldelli, who generally rolls his eyes at questions about his batting orders, surely puts a little more stock into this one he's been waiting six months to write out. That doesn't mean he'll stick with it though; last year the Twins used 154 different lineups over the course of the season.

Baldelli and the Twins just shared their first lineup of the season for today's game against right-hander Sonny Gray and the Cardinals in St. Louis. Let's overanalyze it! First, here's a quick snapshot, and then we'll drill down into each spot.

1. Matt Wallner, RF
2. Carlos Correa, SS
3. Byron Buxton, CF
4. Trevor Larnach, DH
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
6. Ty France, 1B 
7. Willi Castro, 2B 
8. José Miranda, 3B
9. Harrison Bader, LF

 

1. Matt Wallner, RF
Rocco telegraphed this preference early in the spring, raising eyebrows by writing Wallner into the leadoff spot quickly once games started. At the time, Baldelli called it a "concept in action," hinting that he wasn't opposed to sticking with it. Wallner continued to appear atop the order throughout the spring, and he responded by posting an .833 OPS with six home runs—more than twice any other Twin—in a stark reversal of his struggles last March.

Indeed, Wallner has come a very long way since then. Entering 2024, the team's faith in him was so delicate that they demoted him to Triple-A after two weeks. Entering 2025, he's batting leadoff with Baldelli talking him up as one of the best hitters in the league. 

"I’m not a fortune-teller, but I know his track record is really strong. I know I like guys who hit like Matt Wallner." - Rocco Baldelli on Matt Wallner (via the Star Tribune)

2. Carlos Correa, SS
He's the heart and soul of this team, so it's no surprise to see Correa in the damage spot where managers often plant their best player. The shortstop primarily batted second for the Twins in 2022, and in the first half of 2023 before his injury-related limitations became clear. Since then he's moved around the lineup a bit more. Last year on Opening Day he batted fourth—against a lefty no less.

Correa finding himself back in the No. 2 position this year seems to be a signal of Baldelli's confidence that the 30-year-old is back to his old self. That'd be excellent news for the Twins. Correa didn't put up big numbers this spring but the underlying metrics were encouraging, and he finished strong.

 

3. Byron Buxton, CF
Buxton followed up his healthiest season in years with perhaps his healthiest offseason ever. The center fielder was ecstatic about being able to experience a normal winter, rather than rehabbing and recovering. This carried over into a spring training that was blissfully free of incidents or setbacks. 

We don't know how long it will last, but right now Buxton is in great shape physically, and he looks ready to thrive coming off a stellar spring that saw him slash .317/.420/.585 with three homers, seven walks, and even a couple of steals. When on his game he's one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

 

4. Trevor Larnach, DH
After three years of struggling to break through in the majors, Larnach finally established himself in 2024. He overcame his vulnerability to non-fastballs, holding his own against offspeed stuff and drastically reducing his strikeout rate while continuing to hit the ball very hard upon contact. 

Larnach's .434 slugging percentage and 15 home runs last year might not jump off the page for a cleanup man, but those numbers understate his power-hitting ability. He ranked in the 90th percentile for average exit velocity, and in the 80th percentile for xSLG. Mark him down as my pick for first home run of the season.

"He does a little bit of everything. He hits the ball hard. He can put some balls in the seats, which is still something that you’re looking for from your team." - Rocco Baldelli on Trevor Larnach (via MLB)

5. Ryan Jeffers, C
Last year on Opening Day, Jeffers batted second. It was a big show of faith, and a well-warranted one coming off a season where he was one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. He went on to hit 10 homers with a .997 OPS in his first 36 games. Then, from May 15th through the end of the season, he slashed .198/.269/.347, posting a lower OPS over the final 4 ½ months (.616) than Christian Vázquez (.639).

Which version of Jeffers will we see this year? The fact that he's batting fifth on Opening Day indicates that the Twins are expecting to see the good version—the slugger who can make an impact in the middle of the lineup. 

“I don’t want to be known as just a good-hitting catcher. I want to be known as a good hitter all around.” - Ryan Jeffers this spring (via the Star Tribune)

6. Ty France, 1B
The Twins signed France to replace their 2024 first-base stalwart, Carlos Santana. France is coming off a rotten season and looking to rebound on a $1 million contract. His spring performance was extremely encouraging, and probably helped motivate Baldelli to place the 30-year-old relatively high in the lineup. Now we'll see if the positive signs were legit.

Sandwiching two righties on either side of Larnach (and Wallner for that matter) will make it exceedingly tough for an opposing manager to play matchups against Minnesota's lefty bats late in games. No doubt that is by design.

 

7. Willi Castro, 2B
Castro led the team in games started last year and was named team MVP, so it's not terribly surprising he gets the nod over Edouard Julien at second base on Opening Day. In 2024 Castro was most likely to either find himself at the top of the batting order (48 leadoff appearances) or further down (74 starts in the 6th/7th/8th spots). While he's a decent hitter, it's going to be a better sign for the Twins offense if he finds himself down in this area more frequently this season. 

At this spot in the lineup, his switch-hitting ability and speed can be dynamic assets helping to make things happen. I expect the Twins to use him as a disruptive force nested between a group of slow-footed righty sluggers.

"He’s very capable of being an above-average baserunner, being aggressive, stretching the limits, making the defense rush, stealing some bases. He can do all of those things, and I think he’s mentally prepared to do all those things.” - Rocco Baldelli on Willi Castro this spring (via the Pioneer Press)

8. José Miranda, 3B
Last year Miranda was an all-world hitter in the first half and a total flop in the second half, hitting zero home runs. For a bat-first player like him to find himself this low in the order is telling; he's got something to prove. It's an opportunity he'll be primed to take advantage of, with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee on the sidelines. 

 

9. Harrison Bader, LF
Hopefully we will not see Bader starting in an outfield corner against a right-handed starter too frequently. That's not an ideal scenario since he has a career .239/.302/.367 slash line against righties. But Bader was Minnesota's "big money" offseason acquisition, signed to a $6.25 million contract that represented more than half of their total expenditure, so it figures they would feature him on the first day of the season.

Buried at the bottom of the lineup as a high-caliber defender in left, Bader's not really a liability. Having his bat in the lineup is a luxury the Twins can afford if everyone above him hits the way they're capable of.

 

What are your thoughts on the Opening Day lineup? Any surprises? Anything you'd change? Sound off in the comments as we count down to first pitch.

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[Linus]

Larnach in left - Eddie at DH - Bader on the bench.

[nicksaviking]

9. Harrison Bader, LF
Hopefully we will not see Bader starting in an outfield corner against a right-handed starter too frequently. 

Sigh. He was the team's 'big' free agent signing this year. Anyone who assumed he'd be a short-sided platoon player wasn't looking at the money. If he stays healthy, I expect he'll play more games in the OF than any other Twin this year.

That was definitely not an endorsement.

[terrydactyls]

Six right handed hitters in the starting lineup against a tough right handed pitcher?  What happened to matchups?  Maybe defense is being considered as a strategy?

[jorgenswest]

This is about the best defense they can put out there. I suppose Vazquez is a better catcher. Keirsey may have more range but Wallner has the arm in right field. I would have had Keirsey over Bader in left field and Julien over Castro to start the game.

I am not an advocate of the inexpensive veteran right handed bat free agent that they love to sign every winter. Let’s hope they find the 21-22 France and the 20-21 Bader. 

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

9. Harrison Bader, LF
Hopefully we will not see Bader starting in an outfield corner against a right-handed starter too frequently. 

Sigh. He was the team's 'big' free agent signing this year. Anyone who assumed he'd be a short-sided platoon player wasn't looking at the money. If he stays healthy, I expect he'll play more games in the OF than any other Twin this year.

That was definitely not an endorsement.

100% Fans were deluding themselves thinking Bader wasn't going to be playing every day. If Buxton is healthy, it means Bader is likely in the corners.

[weneedneshek]

Just send Julien down so he can get everyday at bats if this is gonna be the lineup against righties

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Wow!  Talk about overreactions to one lineup....

[miracleb]

23 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

This is about the best defense they can put out there. I suppose Vazquez is a better catcher. Keirsey may have more range but Wallner has the arm in right field. I would have had Keirsey over Bader in left field and Julien over Castro to start the game.

I am not an advocate of the inexpensive veteran right handed bat free agent that they love to sign every winter. Let’s hope they find the 21-22 France and the 20-21 Bader. 

THIS!!

[miracleb]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

100% Fans were deluding themselves thinking Bader wasn't going to be playing every day. If Buxton is healthy, it means Bader is likely in the corners.

Bader will ....hit himself ....out of the lineup.....

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Somehow I feel like the title of this article was bait!  

The lineup is a reasonable one.  I don’t know that I put any real significance behind it for the most part.  There will be 161 more of these this season and some small number will be identical, but most will be different.  Bader was going to start in LF at some point, and the first game is a fine place to do that.  I’m a little surprised to not see Julien in the lineup but tomorrow’s another day for that.  They are all going to get to play plenty if they’re healthy.  Let’s play some baseball games! 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Bader will ....hit himself ....out of the lineup.....

Over how long of a period of time? Rocco and the current regime isn't exactly known for quick hooks on veteran bats.

[DJL44]

If they use Julien to pinch-hit for Bader then St. Louis can bring in a lefty to face both Julien and Wallner.

 

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Linus said:

Larnach in left - Eddie at DH - Bader on the bench.

We will definitely see that lineup in future games. I don't blame them for putting the best defense out there when Sonny Gray is pitching against them.

[DJL44]

Thinking through late inning bench moves, they could use Julien to pinch hit for Miranda, Gasper pinch hits for Bader, Keirsey for Gasper, move Castro to 3B.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Bader in left to me is a class move by Rocco. Bader started his career here in this stadium. He knows the park well and it is great to see him get the opening day start. 

I can agree with the other options - Larnach in left instead with Julien DH or Kiersey in left would work also. I just have no problem with him in the lineup. Won't be surprised to see Kiersey in right to end the game if we have a lead to protect.

[IndianaTwin]

So last year the complaint was that the lineup was always loaded up with lefties against RHP and vice versa. Now we complain that aren't enough lefties against the RHP, since Julien, Gasper and Kiersey are on the bench? After all, we could have Kiersey for Bader in left; Gasper/Julien to 2B, with Castro shifting to 3B and Gasper/Julien for France, leaving just Buxton, Correa and Jeffers batting righty. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Jocko87]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

100% Fans were deluding themselves thinking Bader wasn't going to be playing every day. If Buxton is healthy, it means Bader is likely in the corners.

99%.  I was and am firmly in the Bader plays a lot camp.

If I'm over analyzing today's lineup I have to throw a little roster construction into it as well.

My prediction is much, much less early game platoon switch hitting. Bader in the lineup and Kiersey on the bench makes it much harder. It was the reason I thought Martin was a lock to make the roster but I'm happy to be wrong.  The LRRLRR lineup helps too.

Bader playing a lot is a good thing for several reasons, not the least of them is that we won't be hitting for Wallner and Larnach all the time. The righty on the bench likely hits for Julien when he plays.  If a pinch hitter is even needed, more likely Kiersey runs then plays defense.

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Bader will ....hit himself ....out of the lineup.....

 

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Over how long of a period of time? Rocco and the current regime isn't exactly known for quick hooks on veteran bats.

Manny Margot is absolute proof of that.

[AceWrigley]

Right handed batters have hit a little better than lefties against Sonny Gray over his career, not so much the last 2 years. And I agree giving Bader the opening start in his old home park is a nice move. He should get a nice greeting.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

After all, we could have Kiersey for Bader in left

That's a downgrade on offense and defense

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

So last year the complaint was that the lineup was always loaded up with lefties against RHP and vice versa. Now we complain that aren't enough lefties against the RHP, since Julien, Gasper and Kiersey are on the bench? After all, we could have Kiersey for Bader in left; Gasper/Julien to 2B, with Castro shifting to 3B and Gasper/Julien for France, leaving just Buxton, Correa and Jeffers batting righty. 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

It's more about who is playing (Bader) against the RHP rather than just the RH/LH split. Bader should not be getting starts against RHP in the corners unless we have injuries that make it an issue. Larnach or Kiersey should be in the lineup in LF; if it's Kiersey, then Larnach should be the DH, and if it's Larnach, then Julien should be the DH.

It's just one game, but if this is how the team intends to deploy Bader on the regular then it becomes malpractice unless Bader suddenly turns into a much better hitter against RHP than he has been since 2021.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's a downgrade on offense and defense

The legend has it DaShawn Keirsey just didn't try for his first 5 years in the minors. He actually paid a look a like beer league softball guy to play in his stead. Then, last year, Keirsey decided it was time to make the big leagues as he got used to the salary bump from the new CBA and he wanted more. 

Once Keirsey actually took the field as himself, not a single ball ever dropped for a hit in the outfield and he made prior Twins legends at DH like Jim Thome and Nelson Cruz look like lightweights, and former hitting icon Joe Mauer look pedestrian when it came to plate discipline and hitting skills.

Seriously, though. Keirsey's reputation reminds me of the legend of Anthony Slama...

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's more about who is playing (Bader) against the RHP rather than just the RH/LH split. Bader should not be getting starts against RHP in the corners unless we have injuries that make it an issue. Larnach or Kiersey should be in the lineup in LF; if it's Kiersey, then Larnach should be the DH, and if it's Larnach, then Julien should be the DH.

It's just one game, but if this is how the team intends to deploy Bader on the regular then it becomes malpractice unless Bader suddenly turns into a much better hitter against RHP than he has been since 2021.

I would rather have Bader in the starting lineup in LF than Keirsey. I don't care who is on the mound.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

• Matt Wallner, RF
• Carlos Correa, SS
• Byron Buxton, CF
• Trevor Larnach, DH
• Ryan Jeffers, C
• Ty France, 1B 
• Willi Castro, 2B 
• José Miranda, 3B
• Harrison Bader, LF

If Lewis is healthy, he's playing 3B and batting 5th. That's the only change I see happening.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Somehow I feel like the title of this article was bait!  

The lineup is a reasonable one.  I don’t know that I put any real significance behind it for the most part.  There will be 161 more of these this season and some small number will be identical, but most will be different.  Bader was going to start in LF at some point, and the first game is a fine place to do that.  I’m a little surprised to not see Julien in the lineup but tomorrow’s another day for that.  They are all going to get to play plenty if they’re healthy.  Let’s play some baseball games! 

Hopefully more than 161

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If Lewis is healthy, he's playing 3B and batting 5th. That's the only change I see happening.

In that scenario, wouldn’t Bader go to the bench? Larnach to LF, Miranda/France at DH/1B interchangeably.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In that scenario, wouldn’t Bader go to the bench? Larnach to LF, Miranda/France at DH/1B interchangeably.

I doubt it

[Strombomb]

Here's a nitpicky change (as all of the above are):

How about putting the speedier Buxton ahead of the more clutch Correa?

[Possumlad]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

99%.  I was and am firmly in the Bader plays a lot camp.

If I'm over analyzing today's lineup I have to throw a little roster construction into it as well.

My prediction is much, much less early game platoon switch hitting. Bader in the lineup and Kiersey on the bench makes it much harder. It was the reason I thought Martin was a lock to make the roster but I'm happy to be wrong.  The LRRLRR lineup helps too.

Bader playing a lot is a good thing for several reasons, not the least of them is that we won't be hitting for Wallner and Larnach all the time. The righty on the bench likely hits for Julien when he plays.  If a pinch hitter is even needed, more likely Kiersey runs then plays defense.

 

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Manny Margot is absolute proof of that.

I think Rocco's just dispositionally risk-averse - volatility and unpredictably seem to make him very uncomfortable.

One very odd consequence is that I believe he genuinely prefers consistently, predictably bad players vs. better, slightly higher-volatility players. Based on the evidence, he would absolutely take a consistent, predictable 0.680 OPS over a more volatile 0.780 (particularly if the 0.680 was a veteran "playing their role").

Not sure if he even knows that about himself, but I think it's why we give reliably bad players huge numbers of ABs every single season. This year it will be Bader and France. As long as they're predictable, it won't matter if they're bad. He likes playing guys whose offense he can write off in advance - much more predictable & comfortable.