Are Today's 7-8-9 Hitters the Key to the Twins Season?

[John Bonnes]

Is it ludicrous to suggest that the seventh, eighth, and ninth hitter in today’s game might be the key to the Twins season?

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

The Twins played back-to-back home spring training games this wee, which gave manager Rocco Baldelli a chance to showcase his everyday players two days in a row. So Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis batted first through fifth both days. Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers, the veteran catchers, alternated starts, as is likely the plan for the season.

But the other spots in the bottom half of the lineup all switched. Wednesday’s featured the veterans: Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Ty France. They’re all nearly guaranteed spots on the roster, though how significant their roles will be will likely depend on their performance.

Thursday’s theme was “youth hoping to establish themselves as regulars.” Jose Miranda (26yo), Edouard Julien (25yo), and Brooks Lee (24yo) have all shown incredibe upside. Each also struggled at the end of last year as the Twins plummeted from a 90+% chance to make the postseason to watching October baseball from their couch. If they want to avoid that fate this year, those three players’ performances will be key to the team’s revival.

At this time last year, Edouard Julien’s MLB career seemed assured. 2023 was his breakthrough season. Julien was called up on May 20th, and from that point on, he hit .267 with a 389 OBP and a 460 Slugging percentage in 378 plate appearances as a 24-year-old. There were some warts: he struck out 119 times, and his defense at second base was a little rough. But his combination of patience and power would play anywhere in the field if the latter didn’t improve.

His 2024 was a disaster. Julien’s patience turned to passivity. He was sent down to St. Paul in early June when he was batting just .207 with a 676 OPS. He was recalled in late July when the Twins needed reinforcements, but he was even worse in the second half, hitting .186 with a 509 OPS. 

Julien attributes his sophomore slump to changes he made to his swing before the 2024 season that left him especially vulnerable to offspeed pitches. “I was uphill, and everything that was thrown, like sliders, curveball, everything going down in the zone, I wasn't able to connect with them,” said Julien when asked about last year. “I knew that was a problem, and I had to address it. And during the season, it was hard, because you don't really want to make some big changes.”

Jose Miranda, on the other hand, had the bounceback season he was hoping for last year, up until he was sidelined by lower back stiffness in the middle of July. On July 8th, he looked like a middle-of-the-order bat for the next five years, posting a 908 OPS while batting .332. He returned from his trip to the Injured List before then end of July, but after that point, his production plunged, posting a 528 OPS with a .208 batting average. 

His struggles led the Twins to not only sign the free agent France last in the offseason, but to almost immediately name him the starting first baseman while simultaneously discussing how MIranda would need to earn his at-bats at first base, designated hitter, and third base. 

Finally, Brooks Lee, the 8th overall pick in the 2022 draft, raced through the minors, posting an 841 OPS while showcasing strong defensive infield work. He made his MLB debut and immediately showed fans glimpses of what they had heard about in the minors: he went 11-24 in his first week with the team. 

But his dream week turned to a nightmare. He hit just .182 after that point, posting a 503 OPS, while also missing time with a sore shoulder in August. ”So, yeah, it sucked,” said Lee about the experience. “It was not as enjoyable as I would have thought it would have been.”

His challenge is to show what the Twins saw in the minors and what fans saw in his first week is what he can do every day. “I would like to do that again, sustain it for a season, a whole career,” says Lee about the upcoming season. “So that's what I'm trying to do.”

And that’s the case for all three of the players. Julien has shown the patience and power to be an outstanding leadoff hitter. Miranda’s first half would look great batting third. Lee’s .362 OBP throughout the minors could be an asset as a #2.

But yesterday, they were batting 7-8-9, trying to show that they belong on the Opening Day Roster. They each singled in the second inning to score the Twins first run. Julien and Lee each had another hit, and Miranda had a sacrifice fly that scored the Twins' fifth run. The team lost 13-10 to the Orioles, but those three provided exactly the kind of production the Twins hope to see in 2025. 

Last year the Twins saw how good their team could be, when they were 17 games above .500 in mid-August. They also saw just how easily that can fall apart when they finished the season 12-27 in their last 39 games. 

Similarly, these three have already shown that they can be major league regulars or even MLB All-Stars. If they each take a couple of steps forward, they could lead the Twins lineup to a postseason run. But if they cannot turn those flashes into sustained success, they may do the same, but atop the St. Paul Saints' lineup. 

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[Patzky]

I am noticing Keirsey becoming an instigator behind scoring runs so far this spring.. and hopeful that if it continues we can find a home for him in Minneapolis soon. 

[jorgenswest]

I have been paying attention to Julien’s approach this spring. No called strikes today. He stayed in the zone. 

[TheLeviathan]

It'd be great if those three would force the other three into bench or released roles.

I think the team might lose me if France-Vasquez-Bader is a regular roll-out.

[Fatbat]

Lee is definitely a possible big key to winning. If he can seize the 2B job along with filling at SS and 3B occasionally, he just needs to hold his own at the plate.  A nice obp and .750 ops fills a much needed role in the bottom half of the lineup.   
I have little hope for Vasquez but Jeffers needs to hold his own at the plate as well. 
Martin, Julien and anyone else just needs to play a solid role….. execute by getting on base and moving runners along to get back to the top of the batting order.  

[tony&rodney]

Counting on Julien and Lee as the keys to a successful season seems like a poor bet, but I too had similar thoughts a little while back. The offseason offered time for several moves, but here we are back with the old gang and I'm leaning on Julien and Lee to hold up enough for our pitchers to win.

[Parfigliano]

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Counting on Julien and Lee as the keys to a successful season seems like a poor bet, but I too had similar thoughts a little while back. The offseason offered time for several moves, but here we are back with the old gang and I'm leaning on Julien and Lee to hold up enough for our pitchers to win.

I'm looking at them in a well they couldn't hit worse then last year light.

[D.C Twins]

How long until the Tonkin experiment is done (again)...asking for a friend's sanity 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I'm looking at them in a well they couldn't hit worse then last year light.

It's what we got.

[Jocko87]

The make or break on the season is the 2, 3 and 5 hitters in today's lineup. The three mentioned can't fill their shoes if they don't come through.

If the 2, 3, 5 guys are solid these guys being solid takes the team to another level. But they can't break the season on their own.

[Mark G]

All the different articles are starting to make my head spin.  

We have a non guaranteed contract last minute pick up being talked up as our "likely" starting first baseman, we are holding a try out camp for 2nd base, Royce "don't even think about putting me at 2nd base" Lewis only wants to play 3rd, but makes too many throwing errors (more, likely, with no gold glove at 1st to catch him).........I don't know, maybe it is just me, but the bottom of the batting order isn't exactly on my mind at this stage of ST.  And if CC or Buck goes down for ANY length of time we better really have the best bullpen in baseball or........🤕

On the other hand, if Miranda matures, takes 1st, and holds on to it, Lee starts to hit the ball and can hold down 2nd, Lewis tightens up his defense, and Willi just keeps on being the Willi we know and love.......October baseball? 😎

Now, bring on the articles about the outfield; that's the real 7, 8, and 9 of baseball.  😉

[Mark G]

44 minutes ago, Mark G said:

All the different articles are starting to make my head spin.  

We have a non guaranteed contract last minute pick up being talked up as our "likely" starting first baseman, we are holding a try out camp for 2nd base, Royce "don't even think about putting me at 2nd base" Lewis only wants to play 3rd, but makes too many throwing errors (more, likely, with no gold glove at 1st to catch him).........I don't know, maybe it is just me, but the bottom of the batting order isn't exactly on my mind at this stage of ST.  And if CC or Buck goes down for ANY length of time we better really have the best bullpen in baseball or........🤕

On the other hand, if Miranda matures, takes 1st, and holds on to it, Lee starts to hit the ball and can hold down 2nd, Lewis tightens up his defense, and Willi just keeps on being the Willi we know and love.......October baseball? 😎

Now, bring on the articles about the outfield; that's the real 7, 8, and 9 of baseball.  😉

And I suppose I better clarify, yes I did get the reference to "today's" 7-8-9 hitters.  I am generalizing when I say bottom of the order; no one will ever be there permanently.  Seeing that they were all infielders he was talking about, I commented on the infield as a whole.  🫠

[Doctor Gast]

The problem with Julien isn't that he did anything different, it's the league that has the book out on him & everyone like him. He has shown some signs of adapting, but he's a liability at 2B & until he can start hitting with power again he doesn't profile at 1B, where he belongs. Lee has a solid glove but has shown that he can't hit at the MLB level. Hopefully Lee's problem is mechanical & not physical. He & Julien need to be sent down to AAA, to learn how to hit & for Julien to learn how to play 1B there, not taking away precious time away from Miranda in ST, who should be given primary 1B duties.

Miranda is a great hitter when healthy. His lack of production is due to being injured. This isn't his problem, management needs to keep him healthy by keeping him on 1B & off 3B. 3B is definitely much harder on his shoulder than 1B/ DH. If they do this, Miranda will have a very good season. If you practically take him away from 1B/ DH & he starts hit like he normally does, to keep his bat in the lineup they'll stick him at 3B again. I don't want to take that chance again & see him get hurt. Then everybody claims that he can't hit just because he's hurt.

So our 7, 8, 9 problem can easily be remedied by management, but will they?

[mnfireman]

Julien attributes his sophomore slump to changes he made to his swing before the 2024 season that left him especially vulnerable to offspeed pitches 

Changes to his swing? He didn't swing, that was the problem.

[gman]

Thats it bring out the negative dog whistles

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

All the different articles are starting to make my head spin.  

We have a non guaranteed contract last minute pick up being talked up as our "likely" starting first baseman, we are holding a try out camp for 2nd base, Royce "don't even think about putting me at 2nd base" Lewis only wants to play 3rd, but makes too many throwing errors (more, likely, with no gold glove at 1st to catch him).........I don't know, maybe it is just me, but the bottom of the batting order isn't exactly on my mind at this stage of ST.  And if CC or Buck goes down for ANY length of time we better really have the best bullpen in baseball or........🤕

On the other hand, if Miranda matures, takes 1st, and holds on to it, Lee starts to hit the ball and can hold down 2nd, Lewis tightens up his defense, and Willi just keeps on being the Willi we know and love.......October baseball? 😎

Now, bring on the articles about the outfield; that's the real 7, 8, and 9 of baseball.  😉

Lewis spent all offseason working out at 2B. He has no problem with playing 2B. He didn't want to be moved to a new spot he'd never played in the middle of a playoff race last year and prefers to just be left at 1 position throughout the season. Him (and his agent, for that matter) have been very open about him moving to 2B if that was the best fit for the team. Just just doesn't want to be bounced around once the season starts.

[stringer bell]

I think the OP is an excellent analysis of the 2025 Twins prospects of success. On the position player side a lot will depend on guys who have played well for a stretch or have the luster of being a high draft choice and a rated prospect. There is reason to believe in each of these guys, but there is also a reason to doubt they will be successful. This is the team that Falvey has put together and if most of the gambles work out, they'll be pretty good. If not, ......

I guess I have more belief than most that major league managers and coaches can see things that predict success beyond the stats of minor leagues or spring training. I expect the right choices to be made for who makes the team and who gets the playing time. We shall see.

[rv78]

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

The make or break on the season is the 2, 3 and 5 hitters in today's lineup. The three mentioned can't fill their shoes if they don't come through.

If the 2, 3, 5 guys are solid these guys being solid takes the team to another level. But they can't break the season on their own.

This is spot on.

If Correa and Buck only play half a season and Lewis hits .233 like he did last year the 7, 8, 9 hitters won't matter. I've yet to see a team make it to the playoffs and win because the 7, 8, 9 hitters carried the team. 

As for Lewis playing 2B,,,, No need, None, Zero, Zilch, Nada. If Julien, Lee or Castro can't man that position then try Keaschall. 

[Otaknam]

15 hours ago, Patzky said:

I am noticing Keirsey becoming an instigator behind scoring runs so far this spring.. and hopeful that if it continues we can find a home for him in Minneapolis soon. 

Agree on Kiersey. He’s an elite defender with great speed, and has been a solid hitter in the minors with some pop. He deserves a chance to backup the outfield, despite being left handed in a top heavy lefty outfield.

[Otaknam]

The key to the season is the health of Correa, Buxton and Lewis, as well as the top three starters. Julien, Lee and Miranda also need to show that they belong, but that won’t matter very much if the big three keep getting injured for long stretches of time. I think Lee and Miranda will hit if healthy, but I’m not so sure about Julien. 

[Linus]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lewis spent all offseason working out at 2B. He has no problem with playing 2B. He didn't want to be moved to a new spot he'd never played in the middle of a playoff race last year and prefers to just be left at 1 position throughout the season. Him (and his agent, for that matter) have been very open about him moving to 2B if that was the best fit for the team. Just just doesn't want to be bounced around once the season starts.

Reminds me of the Mark Twain saying “ Lies get half way around the world before truth can even get its pants on.”

[tony&rodney]

The Twins depend on healthy productive seasons from Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. Full stop.

A host of other players can be important pieces to a successful season and one could even put them in whatever order opinion suggests based on personal preference. Based on Rocco's ST ideas it might be: Wallner, Lewis, Larnach, France, and Castro with some sprinkling of Miranda, Bader, Julien, and whomever. We do know that the Twins are counting on Vazquez and Jeffers to replay their last two seasons.

Correa and Buxton drive the team. Everyone else sits several rows back.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The problem with Julien isn't that he did anything different, it's the league that has the book out on him & everyone like him. He has shown some signs of adapting, but he's a liability at 2B & until he can start hitting with power again he doesn't profile at 1B, where he belongs. Lee has a solid glove but has shown that he can't hit at the MLB level. Hopefully Lee's problem is mechanical & not physical. He & Julien need to be sent down to AAA, to learn how to hit & for Julien to learn how to play 1B there, not taking away precious time away from Miranda in ST, who should be given primary 1B duties.

Miranda is a great hitter when healthy. His lack of production is due to being injured. This isn't his problem, management needs to keep him healthy by keeping him on 1B & off 3B. 3B is definitely much harder on his shoulder than 1B/ DH. If they do this, Miranda will have a very good season. If you practically take him away from 1B/ DH & he starts hit like he normally does, to keep his bat in the lineup they'll stick him at 3B again. I don't want to take that chance again & see him get hurt. Then everybody claims that he can't hit just because he's hurt.

So our 7, 8, 9 problem can easily be remedied by management, but will they?

IMO, regarding Julien, is that it’s unlikely the opposing team has “the book on you” when you intermittently take fastballs for strikes. Often, more often than anyone else in MLB, on strike 3! There’s no great strategy from the pitcher it’s just Julien’s lack of mental alertness/psyche to be able to pull the trigger and swing and make contact.

He needs a sports psychologist IMO.

[DocBauer]

I get the gist of John's piece; Miranda, Julien, and Lee are all, potentially, not only part of 2025 and the future, whereas Bader, France, and probably Castro as well, are not. 

Both groups of 3 are likely part of the Twins in 2025. All 6 have roles to fill. But Julien hitting again, Miranda being healthy, and Lee being both really makes the INF better, and deepens the lineup. 

But to me, the 7-8-9 spots are not just about 3 vs 3, it's about deepening the lineup as well. If your last 3 spots are filled with non or very limited producers, your top 6 in the lineup better be pretty awesome in driving in runs, because your 4-6 hitters are going to be stranded on base a lot. Further, let's say Correa, or Wallner ARE your #1 hitter. (Wallner's been experimented with there, some have suggested Correa would be a good option there). Who's going to be on base for a couple of your top hitters to knock in? 

I believe it was La Russa with the Cardinals that used to bat his pitcher 8th and put a better hitter in the 9th spot to help turn the lineup over better for his #1-2 batters. Now personally, I think Castro is a pretty good hitter based on his all around skills, and the .750 OPS he produced in 2023 and the first half of 2024. I'd put that version of Castro at #1 and let Wallner hit in a better RBI spot. Suddenly, the lineup becomes deeper. 

But what IF the version of Julien is the version we saw in MILB and 2023? Again, you set the #1 spot, and deepen your lineup. And what if Miranda doesn't have any more setbacks and is the hitter we've seen over parts of 2022 and 2024? Do the Twins really defer to France over him consistently at 1B? 

So i think there's two different ways to look at the 6-7-9 situation. And the best answer to both viewpoints for 2025, and beyond, would be Miranda, Lee, and Julien being lineup mainstays. Now, this whole "future look" of the lineup might very well change fairly soon due to the arrivals of Rodriguez. Keaschall, and Jenkins hopefully right behind them. Perhaps Eeles proves to everyone 2024 WASN'T a fluke and he's part of the equation as well. But for 2025, both viewpoints have the same answer: the Twins this season are better with the "younger" 3 options solidifying themselves in to the daily lineup.

[DocBauer]

12 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Agree on Kiersey. He’s an elite defender with great speed, and has been a solid hitter in the minors with some pop. He deserves a chance to backup the outfield, despite being left handed in a top heavy lefty outfield.

I've made the same arguement over and over again, as have others. It's mismanagement of assets when you don't take a good, honest look at the players producing in your system...even if they're late bloomers or role players...vs just grabbing a veteran fill in option to set your floor.

At the end of the day, ST means very little. A guy gets hot for a few weeks and suddenly he's a fan favorite who flames out when the games get real. But that's also why you take advantage of seasons like 2024 when you have older vets, who aren't producing, and who aren't coming back, to take that honest and long look at guys like Keirsey. 

Bader is off to a good start in ST. Does that mean he's going to have a good season? No. It only means he's off to a good start. And I don't dislike Bader at all. And I hope he DOES have a good season. But what IF Keirsey had actually shown he could be that 4th OF with some good skills? Then Bader's $ might have been better spent elsewhere.

I hope Keirsey gets a chance at some point to show what he might be able to do at the ML level. With the talent coming up behind him, maybe his time with the Twins would be short lived. But maybe he'd be a pretty good 4th OF, even if it was a brief time in a Twins uniform.

[Patzky]

On 2/28/2025 at 6:55 PM, jorgenswest said:

I have been paying attention to Julien’s approach this spring. No called strikes today. He stayed in the zone. 

Today is just a shame for Julien. Now Gasper is making a case ..

[Riverbrian]

The keys are whoever the Twins choose to invest in. 

Out of 5490 Team AB's last year over 2,000 ABs were committed to players producing OPS with a 6 or 5 in front of the number. For those looking for the juice of our superstars to be the key to our success... I'm saying that 2,000 sub par AB's from low OPS dudes will marginalize that superstar juice gains quickly. About one third of our AB's were from sub-par performers. 

It's the bad players that kill you.

If bad performance is going to be allowed to continue in the 7,8 and 9 spots... Yep... It's the key to the season... every season for that matter.  

 

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, Patzky said:

Today is just a shame for Julien. Now Gasper is making a case ..

Encouraged by Gasper but not sure what that has to do with my comment about approach. I am still paying attention to his approach. Today there was one called strike in 4 plate appearances.