St. Paul’s Rotational Depth and the Emergence of Minnesota’s Pitching Pipeline

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have 10 or more starting pitchers projected to start the year at Triple-A. Who will don a Saints uniform, and how will the organization balance that depth to start the year? The Twins' pitching pipeline may have finally been cranked all the way open.

 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Organizations strive to build a pitching pipeline, and the Minnesota Twins enter the 2025 season with an enviable amount of starting pitching depth at the Triple-A level. Prospects like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, and Travis Adams highlight a deep collection of arms, and the organization’s approach to managing this talent will be key to its success.

Instead of a traditional five-man rotation, the Saints are expected to deploy a piggyback system early in the season. This means starters will likely be capped at 40-50 pitches per outing in the season’s early weeks. Then, those pitchers will be followed by another multi-inning arm, to maximize the number of innings and gradually build up the arms. Given the abundance of arms with starting experience, this method allows the Twins to ensure pitchers get their work in, while also limiting early-season wear and tear, especially in cold weather. 

Beyond the core group of pitching prospects, several non-roster invitees in Twins camp could factor into the Saints’ plans. Huascar Ynoa, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Randy Dobnak, and Darren McCaughan provide additional depth and could slot into either primary starter or piggyback roles. Morris and Lewis rank among the organization’s best pitching prospects, so there is a chance the team will have them start at Double A to get more regular work. Lewis made one Triple-A start last season, while Morris pitched over 33 innings for the Saints. Ynoa, Dobnak, and McCaughan have all pitched at the big-league level and provide veteran organizational depth. This flexibility allows the organization to balance workload management with competition for potential big-league opportunities later in the year.

Simeon Woods Richardson is also a wild card in the discussion for the Saints' rotation to begin the year. Some believe he has the inside track for the parent club's final rotation spot, after a rookie campaign where he pitched better than expected. Across 133 2/3 innings, Woods Richardson struck out 20.6% of batters and held an ERA of 4.17. His ERA was significantly lower before the season’s final month, when he pitched past his career high in innings. It sounds like the Twins are holding an open competition for the team’s final rotation spot, though, and that could leave Woods Richardson back in St. Paul to start the 2025 campaign. 

One of the bigger storylines is how the Twins handle Louis Varland and Matt Canterino. Both pitchers have the stuff to be major-league starters, but with the organization’s starting pitching depth, they're overwhelmingly likely to transition into bullpen roles. Varland has previously seen success as a reliever, and Canterino’s high-octane arsenal could also play up in shorter stints. How the Twins deploy these two talented arms will be crucial for their development and impact on the major-league roster.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli spoke highly of Canterino earlier this spring.

“He's got a good, really talented arm, you know, and he's a guy that can do a lot of things," Baldelli told reporters. "And, you get a guy like that healthy and on a little bit of a roll. You do not have to squint too hard to see him getting a ton of swing and miss at the big-league level.”

Baldelli also discussed Varland in the same interview.

“He's not preparing for one role in particular. He's a guy that can adapt very quickly if we needed him to. I think it's very possible that we see a good amount of him out of the bullpen this year. We've seen the way he looks when he pitches out of the bullpen, but I'm not ready to say 100 percent locked in that Louie will pitch there.”

Managing innings and pitch counts is challenging for every organization in the modern baseball world. For example, the Twins have aggressively promoted Marco Raya while limiting his pitch count and innings. In his first 55 career appearances, there was only one time when he threw more than 75 pitches. The Twins let him cross the 75-pitch mark in multiple appearances at the end of last season, so it becomes a balancing act of keeping pitchers healthy while also building a starter’s workload. 

With so much pitching depth, the Saints' staff should be one of the most intriguing in all of Triple-A baseball. If the Twins manage their talent correctly, the depth at St. Paul could pay dividends at the big-league level as the season progresses.

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Is this the start of Minnesota's pitching pipeline? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[bean5302]

2017 Top High Minors Pitching Prospects
#2 Gonsalves (AAA)
#4 Romero (AA)
#5 Tyler Jay (AAA)
#6 Kohl Stewart (AAA)
#8 Adalberto Mejia (MLB)
#9 Felix Jorge (AAA)

Guys below them in the top org rankings you might recognize
Chargois, Rortvedt, Wade, Jr., Garver, Miranda, Arraez, Jax

It's great we undoubtedly have a boatload of guaranteed future Cy Youngs, but it'd be even better if they had peripherals which suggested they were going to be elite.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

One way to guarantee comments... use the phrase "pitching pipeline" in your article.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

One way to guarantee comments... use the phrase "pitching pipeline" in your article.

Twins Pitching Pipeline™.  I'm pretty sure someone must have trademark that combination of words by now.

[tony&rodney]

So, I'm real bullish on the Twins pitching staff at this time. It goes Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, Woods Richardson, Morris, Paddack, C. Lewis, and Raya for now. Folks can quibble plenty over who goes where, but there are some arms that plan on making themselves known.

I like to listen to the broadcast of other teams. The Pittsburgh announcers were talking about the depth of  their pitching pipeline and they also mentioned that Tampa Bay always has a deep pitching pipeline. The Atlanta talking heads jabbered on about their pitching pipeline. Everyone has mentioned that last year was a brief pause in the Cleveland pitching pipeline which is expected to return with a vengeance this year. And so it goes. Seems like every team has a pitching pipeline except for the Dodgers. They have a vault.

Two things can be true. We can love our pitching and still not subscribe to a pitching pipeline ..... because there is no such thing as too much pitching.

[arby58]

As it relates to aspects of the article: with all of the young promising starters, it would be minor league baseball malpractice to give Dobnak starts - let him pitch long relief or mop-up.

If you decode Baldelli's remarks, Varland has about a 95 percent chance of landing in the bullpen. I sure hope it is taking Tonkin's place. 

If Canterino is healthy and throws well in spring training, he very well could end up in the AAA rotation, and if that is the case, Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

2017 Top High Minors Pitching Prospects
#2 Gonsalves (AAA)
#4 Romero (AA)
#5 Tyler Jay (AAA)
#6 Kohl Stewart (AAA)
#8 Adalberto Mejia (MLB)
#9 Felix Jorge (AAA)

Guys below them in the top org rankings you might recognize
Chargois, Rortvedt, Wade, Jr., Garver, Miranda, Arraez, Jax

It's great we undoubtedly have a boatload of guaranteed future Cy Youngs, but it'd be even better if they had peripherals which suggested they were going to be elite.

Debbie Downer strikes again.

[Blyleven2011]

Cranking out a pipeline of pitchers , nice to be excited about so much talent  ...

The way it looks , these pitchers will all get a chance in the big leagues but they still have a ways to go before they are solid contributors or they flame out  ...

Time will tell with healthy and development  ...

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, arby58 said:

As it relates to aspects of the article: with all of the young promising starters, it would be minor league baseball malpractice to give Dobnak starts - let him pitch long relief or mop-up.

If you decode Baldelli's remarks, Varland has about a 95 percent chance of landing in the bullpen. I sure hope it is taking Tonkin's place. 

If Canterino is healthy and throws well in spring training, he very well could end up in the AAA rotation, and if that is the case, Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

I hope Canterino lands in AAA, he should. With so many quality BP arms, it be ideal to have them options to be used rotating in & out arms from AAA. Tonkin has worth & many teams have BP needs so why not trade him. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Tonkin has worth & many teams have BP needs so why not trade him. 

He very much does not. That's why he was DFAd and claimed four separate times last year. Why would a team trade anything of value for a caliber of reliever they know is going to be available throughout the season for a simple waiver claim? 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

 Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

I agree AAA is no place for a 24 year old prospect.

[Riverbrian]

We didn't sign any innings eaters. Our starting pitching depth will be home grown for two years in a row. 

That's pipeline enough for me. 

Elite? It'd be nice... but average will get you through.  

[Otaknam]

I’m wondering what the upside is for Travis Adams to be included with Matthews and Festa. His stats are pretty middling. Also, SWR will have to earn his starting role, but how can he not be considered the front runner after some modest success as a number five starter?

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

As it relates to aspects of the article: with all of the young promising starters, it would be minor league baseball malpractice to give Dobnak starts - let him pitch long relief or mop-up.

In Double-A

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree AAA is no place for a 24 year old prospect.

Only so many starting slots to go around. He can get up to AAA when a starting slot opens up for the Twins.

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, arby58 said:

As it relates to aspects of the article: with all of the young promising starters, it would be minor league baseball malpractice to give Dobnak starts - let him pitch long relief or mop-up.

If you decode Baldelli's remarks, Varland has about a 95 percent chance of landing in the bullpen. I sure hope it is taking Tonkin's place. 

If Canterino is healthy and throws well in spring training, he very well could end up in the AAA rotation, and if that is the case, Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

I was thinking the same thing about Dobnak.  In fact, I want the best pitchers that aren't on the major league club in St. Paul (assuming they are ready).  Put Dobnak on the AA roster if necessary to make room for the promising youngsters.  Additionally, I don't agree with the article about Varland having potential as a starter.  He is a proven failure as a starter.  I do like him as a reliever and it seems the Twins have finally arrived on that point.

[arby58]

30 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I was thinking the same thing about Dobnak.  In fact, I want the best pitchers that aren't on the major league club in St. Paul (assuming they are ready).  Put Dobnak on the AA roster if necessary to make room for the promising youngsters.  Additionally, I don't agree with the article about Varland having potential as a starter.  He is a proven failure as a starter.  I do like him as a reliever and it seems the Twins have finally arrived on that point.

I too hope the Twins have figured that out about Varland. Maybe they needed to hold out hope he could be a starter when he was 'the best available' option at AAA, but that is no longer the case.

[tony&rodney]

Canterino has nearly gained mythological standards. We hope his health holds but he is strictly a reliever at this point and carefully monitored. His outing the other day had him mostly at 92-93 mph with control issues. Hopefully he comes around.

Meanwhile the control artist Andrew Morris was mostly 95-96+ mph.

Twins have some guys.

[arby58]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

2017 Top High Minors Pitching Prospects
#2 Gonsalves (AAA)
#4 Romero (AA)
#5 Tyler Jay (AAA)
#6 Kohl Stewart (AAA)
#8 Adalberto Mejia (MLB)
#9 Felix Jorge (AAA)

Guys below them in the top org rankings you might recognize
Chargois, Rortvedt, Wade, Jr., Garver, Miranda, Arraez, Jax

It's great we undoubtedly have a boatload of guaranteed future Cy Youngs, but it'd be even better if they had peripherals which suggested they were going to be elite.

2022 looks a lot better:

#4 Joe Ryan
#5 Jordan Balazovic
#6 Jhoan Duran
#7 Josh Winder
#8 SWR
#9 Matt Canterino
#14 Ronny Henriquez
#15 Louis Varland
#17 Cole Sands

[rdehring]

Have the Twins ever had a AAA rotation of all or mostly young prospects?  I don't remember any, at least in the recent past.  But it sure looks like that will be the situation this year.  

Expect Canterino needs lots of work before he will be ready for the big leagues.  This young man hasn't pitched much since, well, coming to the Twins however long ago.  But when he does pitch, he seems to miss a lot of bats.  Expect he will be considered as a reliever, at least for now.  Build him up a bit in AAA to maybe going 2-3 innings, get his velo back and get him ready to be a HUGE addition to the Twins pen by early summer.

[PatPfund]

Louis (for spelling and his family, but you can call him Louie) wants to be an SP. My guess is the Twins will give him a stretched out workload in ST, and give him a chance to make his case (something that doesn't hurt the team). If he doesn't, he'll probably go to St Paul to work on RP development (he may have tools but his relief stats are homely). If Varland has great stretched out appearances he probably goes to St Paul anyway.

Adams got lit up in his first appearance, and if he doesn't right that ship quickly, he is an easy waive off of the 40-man (and unlikely to be claimed if that happens). Being on that roster is the only reason to give him AAA starts ahead of Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, and maybe Varland and/or Ynoa. My guess he starts the year as the sixth starter (something needed to start), and then he and Dobnak do piggybacks on some of the other starts until stretching out finishes and MLB call-ups create gaps (which will happen).

Tonkin is a fungible arm; a decent MLB RP with the service time that you have to waive him to send him down, and not good enough that you might have to send him down. Nobody would trade much, because even if you can't get Tonkin, you can get someone like him. Twins are going to have to waive him at some point even if he makes the team, because they will need the flexibility/spot at some point.

No way I see Canterino in a rotation this year. If he has a healthy bullpen year, then maybe next year (unless he is so good that ends the convo... like Duran did a few years ago). Possibly Brock Stewart good or better. Definitely Brock Stewart fragile (or more?).

[Steve Lein]

13 hours ago, arby58 said:

If Canterino is healthy and throws well in spring training, he very well could end up in the AAA rotation, and if that is the case, Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

I'm fairly certain they have finally outright stated Canterino is in the bullpen moving forward. 

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

2017 Top High Minors Pitching Prospects
#2 Gonsalves (AAA)
#4 Romero (AA)
#5 Tyler Jay (AAA)
#6 Kohl Stewart (AAA)
#8 Adalberto Mejia (MLB)
#9 Felix Jorge (AAA)

Guys below them in the top org rankings you might recognize
Chargois, Rortvedt, Wade, Jr., Garver, Miranda, Arraez, Jax

It's great we undoubtedly have a boatload of guaranteed future Cy Youngs, but it'd be even better if they had peripherals which suggested they were going to be elite.

basically, what you've posted here is the reason why we had a change in the front office and overhaul of our minor league system...

but it's notable that the "guys below them" are: a guy who couldn't stay healthy & didn't become a decent reliever until his 30's (Chargois), a backup catcher who can't hit his weight (Rortvedt), a decent 1B who didn't figure it out until he was 29 (Wade), a catcher whose struggles to stay healthy have made him inconsistent and unavailable and on his 3rd team (Garver), a guy who in 2017 hadn't done anything yet (Miranda), a guy who had a serious injury in 2017 (Arraez), and a guy who flamed out as a starter and needed to go to the bullpen to be great (Jax).

none of the other pitchers listed below probably deserved to be listed higher at the time, and all it really shows is how starved we were for real pitching prospects. Tyler Jay? he was up there on scholarship, same with Kohl Stewart.

the cupboard was pretty bare in 2017 when you think about it. I like where we're at right now a lot better, even if some of the guys in the minors as starters might not make it. Who do you like better, Festa or Gonsalves? Matthews or Romero? Raya or Jay? Lewis or Stewart?

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Adams got lit up in his first appearance, and if he doesn't right that ship quickly, he is an easy waive off of the 40-man (and unlikely to be claimed if that happens).

The past few years, the "fringe" 40 man prospects usually get a full season on the roster and then get removed after the season is over (see Yunior Severino, Blayne Enlow). I don't think they flippantly put him on the roster.

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Who do you like better, Festa or Gonsalves? Matthews or Romero?

Fernando Romero had legitimately great stuff, not sure what exactly went wrong there. IIRC some of it was off-the-mound issues.

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Fernando Romero had legitimately great stuff, not sure what exactly went wrong there. IIRC some of it was off-the-mound issues.

He was detained at customs on his way here for ST one year. Nothing was said publicly but the conjecture was he had something in his belongings or on his person that was a no no. He was off the team soon after. Can’t remember the timing of all this but I do remember there was a customs-immigration issue

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

I'm fairly certain they have finally outright stated Canterino is in the bullpen moving forward. 

Yep, just read it on Twins Daily...

[arby58]

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Louis (for spelling and his family, but you can call him Louie) wants to be an SP. My guess is the Twins will give him a stretched out workload in ST, and give him a chance to make his case (something that doesn't hurt the team). If he doesn't, he'll probably go to St Paul to work on RP development (he may have tools but his relief stats are homely). If Varland has great stretched out appearances he probably goes to St Paul anyway.

He was very effective in 9 relief appearances in 2023. In 12 innings in 7 regular season appearances down the stretch, he gave up 2 earned runs (both in the same outing) and struck out 17. Then he had two appearances in the play-offs working 1/3 of an inning in each, no earned runs and another K. So 12 2/3 innings, 2 runs, 18 Ks. That sounds mighty un-homely to me.

[PatPfund]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

He was very effective in 9 relief appearances in 2023. In 12 innings in 7 regular season appearances down the stretch, he gave up 2 earned runs (both in the same outing) and struck out 17. Then he had two appearances in the play-offs working 1/3 of an inning in each, no earned runs and another K. So 12 2/3 innings, 2 runs, 18 Ks. That sounds mighty un-homely to me.

When you cherry pick you can flex stats all sorts of ways, and it wasn't lost on me that you sort of skip over the most recent season, but here is some of the stat line from Varland's relief 2024:

9 appearances, opp BA .320, slugging .493, OPS .859. I would definitely call that homely.

It is in fact only marginally better than his starting appearances. That were bad enough for the bullpen strategy. Look, maybe he came up with a better curve ball and things will be better, but his fastball isn't good enough to fool enough people. Without a dominant "other" pitch, Louie's failures are going to be loud. (I love the guy, but I'd rather see him get work in St Paul until he's shown he is ready in either role.)

[arby58]

18 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

When you cherry pick you can flex stats all sorts of ways, and it wasn't lost on me that you sort of skip over the most recent season, but here is some of the stat line from Varland's relief 2024:

9 appearances, opp BA .320, slugging .493, OPS .859. I would definitely call that homely.

It is in fact only marginally better than his starting appearances. That were bad enough for the bullpen strategy. Look, maybe he came up with a better curve ball and things will be better, but his fastball isn't good enough to fool enough people. Without a dominant "other" pitch, Louie's failures are going to be loud. (I love the guy, but I'd rather see him get work in St Paul until he's shown he is ready in either role.)

2023 isn't 'cherry picking' - it was all his appearances in relief that year. I would suggest calling his entire relief pitching record 'homely'  based solely on 2024 is cherry picking. Look at in its entirety and it is not.

Even in 2024, there were two really bad outings, where he gave up 14 earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. Other than that, it as 5 earned runs over 13 innings, not terrible. He also had 20 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. Apparently some of his pitches have swing and miss ability.

[PatPfund]

17 hours ago, arby58 said:

2023 isn't 'cherry picking' - it was all his appearances in relief that year. I would suggest calling his entire relief pitching record 'homely'  based solely on 2024 is cherry picking. Look at in its entirety and it is not.

Even in 2024, there were two really bad outings, where he gave up 14 earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. Other than that, it as 5 earned runs over 13 innings, not terrible. He also had 20 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. Apparently some of his pitches have swing and miss ability.

When you ignore a whole season, and the most recent at that to claim Varland is a great reliever, well, call it what you want, but it isn't a full look.

Eddie Julien was great in '23, then the league caught up to him, and he is fighting for a roster spot. Varland is pretty much the same, and likely to start in St Paul given his options and the 'pen depth. (And the even great rotational depth if he wants to stay a starter.) As of the end of last season, his pitches were not quite good enough in either individual quality or as used in sequences, and opponents were hitting like a collective All-Star off of him in either role. He needs to get better before he can excel. In either role. (And again, I hope he does!)