Lose-Lose: There’s No Way for the Twins to Gain Value in a Carlos Correa Trade

[NYCTK]

Nm. I read poorly.... 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, mrzippy said:

Maybe he wants to play on a winning team?

He played on a winning team in 2023, and the epic collapse at the end of last year doesn't erase that. Did the players that signed with the Royals (or Tigers) last year do it because they wanted to play on a losing team?

[Jocko87]

TLDR- it was never a thing, in spite of our best efforts to make it so.

Here are the reasons why it was never a thing, please click.

[JesusisLord7]

I'm keep Correa. However, if I had to move a contract I'd trade Buxton. Even if I had to basically give that contract away. If a person got all into the math and broke his career down to how much he is paid versus how many minutes he is actually on the field I'd guess using such a ratio he would be the ultimate recipient of welfare. Move that contract and Vasquez for draft pick capital and be done with it. Buxton is 31. If he can't stay healthy at like 25 it is not going to get better only worse. The dude gets a boo boo and he is on the IR. 

[bean5302]

Improve vs. tread water or trade a slight drop in production and $20MM of payroll capacity to use to improve elsewhere? Correa's a very good player, but the idea the Twins season is guaranteed to be all over if they trade him isn't realistic, and I don't understand why people are so psychologically attached to him (or other Twins players). 

[HerbieFan]

Seems simple.  Ya DONT TRADE HIM!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

The Twins clear $36M in a trade if they take no MLB players back. Do you really think this ownership group, with their track record, and their intent to sell would actually spend more than $15-20M of that "savings"? How many holes do you think you're filling in FA with that?

Disagree that Correa's not an MVP-caliber player, but even accepting that: 5 bWAR players are worth a LOT and are very difficult to replace. From 2021-2024 the Twins have had exactly 1 player reach 5 bWAR: Carlos Correa.

I love Royce Lewis, and I hope he reaches his ceiling, but his career bWAR is lower than Correa's bWAR from 2024.

That and Royce is already on the roster, they would still need to replace Correa’s output.

[Linus]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need.

Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is. 

There is zero chance that Lewis outperforms Correas ceiling at SS. None. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You can argue on-field production against salary, but moving Correa does a few things:

1) Kills public perception.  Correa waving his no-trade indicates he has given up on this team.  By trading Correa, the Twins would be waving the white flag and be saying a rebuild is coming.

2) Kills television revenue.  On old TV contracts, the Twins got paid whether they were competitive or not.  The Twins new television contract requires subscriptions to make money, meaning an entertaining on-field product.  Trading your best player does not help this situation.

3) Kills clubhouse.  See #1.  Morale would fall into the Pit of Despair.

4) Creates a gaping hole at SS and in the lineup, with nobody ready to fill those shoes.

If last offseason they had traded Correa for prospects, it would have traded away 20% of team fWAR on a team that was 4th in runs scored in the AL. They would have gone from 10th in MLB fWAR to 18th.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If last offseason they had traded Correa for prospects, it would have traded away 20% of team fWAR on a team that was 4th in runs scored in the AL. They would have gone from 10th in MLB fWAR to 18th.

And would have finished in the exact same 4th place in the AL Central. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And would have finished in the exact same 4th place in the AL Central. 

Who knows what their record would have been, but I can guarantee that it would have been less than 82 wins. If you like watching losing teams, you would have loved 1995 to 2001, and basically the whole TR2.0 tenure.

Me? I’ll take a winning record over a losing one, every year

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Improve vs. tread water or trade a slight drop in production and $20MM of payroll capacity to use to improve elsewhere? Correa's a very good player, but the idea the Twins season is guaranteed to be all over if they trade him isn't realistic, and I don't understand why people are so psychologically attached to him (or other Twins players). 

because he's currently their best player?

and while we could certainly use $20M to improve at say 1B/DH...do you really think that signing Pete Alonso to handle that role will actually make up for the loss of Correa's production? I mean, who else are we signing? or is that 420M getting eaten up with someone else's "bad" contract in return?

Look, you could still have a winning Twins club without Correa if you signed Alonso and he played well, Lewis stays healthy and produces, Buxton stays healthy and produces, Lee has a breakout season, Julian returns to form, the pitching staff stays steady/improves, etc. But the risk goes up and the margin for error shrinks. And taking a player who produces like an all-star off the roster and replacing him with a couple of average starters doesn't move the needle much for this team.

Might be different if Royce was coming off a healthy season where he finished strong or Lee had already had his breakout. But that's not where we are.

[NYCTK]

56 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Who knows what their record would have been, but I can guarantee that it would have been less than 82 wins. If you like watching losing teams, you would have loved 1995 to 2001, and basically the whole TR2.0 tenure.

Me? I’ll take a winning record over a losing one, every year

There's no real difference between a 77 win team and a 82 win team. You don't get a special medal for winning over half your games. And Twins fans made sure the Organization understood at the end of last season. 

So I'm completely indifferent. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I was in the dome in the late 90s. I anticapte that same atmosphere this season. Being awful is sometimes more interesting as a fan than just being boring and mediocre with no desire to improve. 

I believe that until this team is sold, the risk of further alienating the fans is pretty low. And once it is sold fans will pay attention again, almost immediately. 

Let's not forget, the Twins didn't even sell out their home playoff games in their only series win in 20 years. So what really is the risk of trading away a player with an iffy contract? 

Tune into the 70's and 80's sometime.  It had some very shiny moments but a lot of misery and pain.  The mid-90's weren't special either. 

[High heat]

It’s not at all a lose lose.  We already have Correa under contract, it’s a spent cost.  The problem with baseball is that the teams with month have figured out that they are only competing with the other 6 teams who have $ and every mother organization is just a feeder team.  Why would they spend prospect capital or future star when they can just wait till free agency.  
 

Baseball finances are broken at this point but until things change Correa contract is a sunk cost let’s enjoy his play while we have him and hope some pieces around him play above there contract worth. 
 

 

[T.O.]

12 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, that is Minnesota. You don't have to like it, but the Twins do have talent on their roster. Sorry to break it to you.

You're not breaking anything to me. The Twins have talent. They also have a manager that doesn't know what to do with it and ownership that doesn't really care about building even a good team. Does anyone think the Twins will be in the World Series in 25? Correa has been in a WS. Maybe he wants to again.

[T.O.]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

He played on a winning team in 2023, and the epic collapse at the end of last year doesn't erase that. Did the players that signed with the Royals (or Tigers) last year do it because they wanted to play on a losing team?

I assume a big factor in who players sign with is money. Correa already has money.
I was talking about the future. Maybe I should have said "Maybe he wants to be in another World Series". Given the ownership and the manager 2025 doesn't look likely to be 1991.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Which "bad" free agents are getting $10-15MM? Urshela got $2MM. Estrada got $3MM. Gallo will get a MiLB contract or something similar. Willy Adames got $21MM next year or $15MM in savings vs. Correa.

Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

He's like the best SS in Minnesota

 

[dxpavelka]

You don't get better when your best players are playing somewhere else.

 

[Fatbat]

First of all, C4 isn’t going to be traded. Lastly, we aren’t rebuilding, retooling or rearranging furniture.  We are running back our money ballers. 

[Otaknam]

I don’t think the owners are trying to make the team better, but they might be ok to make it worse if it saves money. Everything is on the table right now. 

[saviking]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need.

Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is. 

The fact no one is calling to trade for Correa says it all. He's too injury prone and his salary is too high .. We're stuck with him whether you like it or not. Just need to hope he has a season worthy of his salary. That's a high bar, considering his injury history ..

[dex8425]

23 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You can argue on-field production against salary, but moving Correa does a few things:

1) Kills public perception.  Correa waving his no-trade indicates he has given up on this team.  By trading Correa, the Twins would be waving the white flag and be saying a rebuild is coming.

2) Kills television revenue.  On old TV contracts, the Twins got paid whether they were competitive or not.  The Twins new television contract requires subscriptions to make money, meaning an entertaining on-field product.  Trading your best player does not help this situation.

3) Kills clubhouse.  See #1.  Morale would fall into the Pit of Despair.

4) Creates a gaping hole at SS and in the lineup, with nobody ready to fill those shoes.

Yeah that about sums up what I was thinking. Why should I watch the team if they're not trying to win? Trading Correa says the Twins are punting on 2025. Might as well trade Buxton and Lopez too, at that point.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

The fact no one is calling to trade for Correa says it all. He's too injury prone and his salary is too high .. We're stuck with him whether you like it or not. Just need to hope he has a season worthy of his salary. That's a high bar, considering his injury history ..

According FanGraphs, Correa's 4.3 fWAR was worth $34.2 MM last year, against a real salary of $33.3 MM.

So by your own quote in another thread, he is worthy of his salary:

"PERFORMANCE BASED PAY .. Well, there's an idea. Why doesn't every player get paid based on performance? Give everyone a base salary and pay them on performance based on everyone else.  

Naw, that would make too much sense .." - saviking 12/14/24 09:50 a.m.

Agree or not, FanGraphs formula of assigning a $$$ value to WAR is widely accepted when talking about player value.

[saviking]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

According FanGraphs, Correa's 4.3 fWAR was worth $34.2 MM last year, against a real salary of $33.3 MM.

So by your own quote in another thread, he is worthy of his salary:

"PERFORMANCE BASED PAY .. Well, there's an idea. Why doesn't every player get paid based on performance? Give everyone a base salary and pay them on performance based on everyone else.  

Naw, that would make too much sense .." - saviking 12/14/24 09:50 a.m.

Agree or not, FanGraphs formula of assigning a $$$ value to WAR is widely accepted when talking about player value.

I think it's different for small market teams because it restrains the team in other areas. For Large Market teams with plenty if money to blow that salary is reasonable. 

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, saviking said:

I think it's different for small market teams because it restrains the team in other areas. For Large Market teams with plenty if money to blow that salary is reasonable. 

So Correa should make less because he plays in Minnesota? WAR isn't variable because of who a player plays for, neither should any value assigned to it. 

FanGraphs assigning a $$$ value to WAR is by no means perfect, but it's a good way of seeing if a team is getting value out of a player, and by the current value assigned to WAR and your own statement of getting paid by performance, Correa earned his paycheck last season

[darin617]

Clearing his contract off the books is a plus for starters.  His health has been pretty much an issue since day 1.  Having a 120-130M payroll it makes no sense to pay 1 player 36M. Then factor in his age and his health and after another year the contract could be immovable. 

It was a move made before they lost their tv deal and if they are entertaining selling the team why keep him. 

And please no comments that he's a good clubhouse guy or a mentor to the young guys. You weren't in the clubhouse or in any way with the team. 

[Riverbrian]

On 12/23/2024 at 11:29 AM, Schmoeman5 said:

Here a core, there a core, every where a core core. Sycamore poor pore. Have some more, iron ore on the floor. Shut that door.

With what was left in store... You surely could have added more. 

[tony&rodney]

Seems hard to believe anything can be done about Carlos Correa, except to hope for good health for him. He has a big NoTrade contract which would be difficult to move. More importantly, he is the only true shortstop in the system right now.

I guess Falvey could sign Andrelton Simmons again if that was the direction chosen.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion, this discussion doesn't have much legs to it without one key question answered? No way we could possibly know but the question is this: 

How much money would the Twins be required to eat for just ONE TEAM to be interested in his contract? 

He has 4 years left for a guaranteed total of 133 Million left to be paid out. Followed by 4 years of vesting options for a potential of 8 years.  

If he reaches 575 Plate Appearances in 2028. It would trigger a vesting option of 25 million as a 34 year old. 

If he reaches 550 PA's in 2029. It would trigger a vesting option of 20 million as a 35 year old. 

If he reaches 525 PA's in 2030. It would trigger a vesting option of 15 million as a 36 year old. 

If he reaches 502 PA's in 2031. It would trigger a vesting option of 10 million as a 37 year old. 

If Correa doesn't reach those triggers he then becomes a club option year by year for the remaining years. 

The vesting options are decent protection for the Twins. Assuming of course that the mere reaching of 575 PA's means productive player worth bringing back the following season. 

So just focusing on the 4 years remaining before the vesting options. 37.3 million, 32.8 million, 31.8 million and 31.3 million. 

When he signed with the Twins. He signed for the biggest contract he could get. The Giants and Mets did offer more initially but they pulled it back leaving the Twins with the best contract offer.

That alone tells you that the Twins most likely paid more than others were willing to pay.

That alone tells you that the Twins will have to eat some money to move his contract to get where others are willing to pay. 

UNLESS... he has somehow increased his value in the two years since signing the contract. 

The first year of the deal - 580 AB's and a .711 OPS

The 2nd year of the deal - A fantastic .905 OPS but only 367 PA's due to injury. 

I love Correa... I'm glad he's a Twin and playing for my team. My comments are not slams on Correa. It's important to ask this question. Do the first two years of his contract indicate a value increase so teams who wouldn't pay more two years ago are now all of sudden willing to pay it? 

Two years less on the contract will increase the value some but two years older should also decrease the value.

So... the question remains. How much money would the Twins be required to eat to make his contract palatable to just one team... let alone multiple teams?