Lose-Lose: There’s No Way for the Twins to Gain Value in a Carlos Correa Trade

[Cody Christie]

Speculation has swirled this offseason about the Twins potentially trading Carlos Correa. It’s becoming clear that a trade involving Correa is unlikely, and that might be the smartest move the front office can make this winter.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

There has been little to discuss with the Twins this winter for multiple reasons. The team is above their owner-imposed payroll limit, so many expect the front office to shed the salaries of veterans like Chris Paddack, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. However, Derek Falvey and the current front office regime have shown remarkable patience in previous offseasons to let the market play out before making any significant moves. With minimal team updates, it becomes easy to focus on hypotheticals, and that’s why many have focused on a potential Carlos Correa trade. 

Last week, La Velle E. Neal III reported on the Correa trade rumors and stated that the shortstop is unlikely to leave Minnesota. Neal had spoken to a Twins official who spoke candidly about the situation. “No team has called the Twins about Correa. And the Twins have not reached out to any team about moving Correa. This came after Juan Soto signed his $765 million megadeal with the Mets, forcing the teams who lost the bidding war to explore Plan B. As of this writing, Correa had not been anyone’s plan B.”

Obviously, there is a lot of offseason left for the front office to make significant moves. Other high-profile free agents might be the plan B for teams that missed out on Soto. Still, it seems most likely for the Twins to head to spring training with Correa still on the roster. From the front office’s perspective, there is likely no way for the Twins to gain value in a trade involving their best player. So, let’s look at the two paths to a Correa trade and why it becomes a lose-lose situation for the Twins.

Path 1: Trading Correa for a Prospect Package
Prospects are the currency of the baseball landscape, similar to how the other major sports treat draft picks. The Twins could trade Correa for a significant prospect package that would improve an already strong farm system. Adding prospects theoretically allows the front office to extend the team’s winning window while removing significant salary from the payroll for multiple years. In 2025, the team would be in a worse position unless the front office turned around and made a second trade to add immediate talent. 

However, Falvey has never made a “rebuilding” trade during the offseason. He sold on players like José Berríos and Nelson Cruz at the trade deadline, but in both instances, the team underachieved in the first half. Many projection systems have the Twins with one of the AL’s best rosters so selling a rebuild will be tough. The AL Central is more competitive than this time last season, but it is still a wide-open race where the Twins might end up having the division’s highest payroll. 

Path 2: Trading Correa for MLB Talent
These types of trades can be complex because of the types of teams and players that would need to be involved. Entering the 2023 season, the Twins traded Luis Arráez to Miami for Pablo López in a deal involving two young but established MLB players. Both teams were trying to trade from areas of depth on their roster while continuing to be competitive in their divisions. The results have worked out well for the Twins, but the Marlins have gone in a different direction. 

In recent seasons, there were rumors every year that the Twins were considering trading Max Kepler. Minnesota had other young outfielders ready to supplant Kepler in right field, but a deal never came to fruition. The front office thought highly of Kepler’s value and wanted to trade him for other players that could impact the Twins’ current roster. These are complicated deals to find because they have to be done with a competitive team with excess depth at another position. 

Correa’s Value to the Twins
Correa led the Twins in WAR last season despite being on the injured list for most of the second half. If healthy, Correa is projected to be a 6 WAR player, which borders on MVP caliber. Minnesota could attempt to replace him with two 3 WAR players, but that comes with its own share of hurdles. The front office has little money to spend on free agency, even if Correa’s salary was off the books. The Twins would also need a replacement at shortstop, which would likely put pressure on a young player like Brooks Lee to take over the starting role. 

There is a non-zero chance that a Correa trade will happen this winter, but it seems unlikely and highly unadvisable. His value to the Twins is too high and trading him for prospects or MLB talent won’t make the team better for 2025. For better or worse, the Twins and Correa are tied to each other.

Is there any way for the Twins to gain value in a Correa trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

On top of all of this (and I agree, he won't and shouldn't be traded) why in the world would he accept a trade if he weren't getting a contract extension from the trading team? And with that, what team is giving him an extension on his current deal.

It's not happening, nor should it.

[In My La Z boy]

Agreed. I don't see it either. Perhaps if he tears it up and is 100% healthy by late June, and we stink. Let's hope not. We signed him to win a world series. Let's bolster the starting 5. I see we missed out on Luzardo. We must be stuck in quick sand with the ownership selling and the payroll situation. Ugh. I think we're playing with the team we've got.

[T.O.]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

.... why in the world would he accept a trade if he weren't getting a contract extension from the trading team? ....

Maybe he wants to play on a winning team?

[jmlease1]

The only people that would win would be a) the team trading for him, and b) the Pohlads, who would almost certainly pocket a substantial chunk of the salary savings. Trading Correa is the white flag of surrender for 2025.

I still think this team can contend despite the rotten end to last season, the refusal to invest from the ownership, and struggles we saw from some of the younger players in 2024. You should never throw away a season in MLB, because a) weird things happen in the playoffs, and b) sometimes all you need is a couple of players getting hot at the same time. This isn't the NBA where the team with the best player usually wins the series and it's hard to get a star player from a middle of the pack team, or the NFL where you can rebuild in 1-2 seasons. Rebuilding in baseball takes longer, especially for a mid-market or smaller team.

Keep Correa. He's a reason to go watch the team. He's the best defensive SS we've had since Gagne, probably the best offensive SS we've had ever (sorry Roy) and I love watching him play.

[LambchoP]

Correa is one of the very few reasons to watch this team, without him we couldn't even fill enough seats to make a profit, he's not going anywhere. Problem is we need to make some trades to both lower payroll and a suite talent to fill multiple holes. Yet it seems like Falvey is just sitting around waiting for teams to call him with amazing offers. Get off your butt and put something together. Teams are getting close to finalizing their rosters, they won't need any of our guys soon....looks like same team as last year. With the rest of the AL Central at least trying to improve we might be looking at a third place finish... Correa, Buxton and Pablo must be regretting those extensions already lol.

[Cory Engelhardt]

24 minutes ago, mrzippy said:

Maybe he wants to play on a winning team?

I mean, that is Minnesota. You don't have to like it, but the Twins do have talent on their roster. Sorry to break it to you.

[bean5302]

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need.

Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is. 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, that is Minnesota. You don't have to like it, but the Twins do have talent on their roster. Sorry to break it to you.

OK. But no one's under the illusion that this is a great team. Losing talent from a mediocre team and the only plan in place to improve is crossing your fingers. Not exactly the situation a player that wants to win would like to be in. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

OK. But no one's under the illusion that this is a great team. Losing talent from a mediocre team and the only plan in place to improve is crossing your fingers. Not exactly the situation a player that wants to win would like to be in. 

That's a whole lot of conjecture rolled up nicely in a sentence you got there.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

Even bad free agent vets are making 10-15M on the market now. Yes, you could “fill holes” but with Joey Gallo caliber players. Not worth it.

[mnfireman]

Correa is a 30 year-old SS coming off of consecutive years with foot injuries, an ankle that raised red-flags during his FA signing period and has no-trade protection through his age 33 season (2028). He's not going anywhere this off-season, he needs a healthy year to show he's worth his contract and the team has no other viable option at SS.

The caveat to this being is that the team is supposedly for sale, so he also needs to show potential buyers he's worth their investment - a good season and the new owners can build around him, a bad season and the new owners can work with Correa to find him a new home, after all, they didn't sign him.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even bad free agent vets are making 10-15M on the market now. Yes, you could “fill holes” but with Joey Gallo caliber players. Not worth it.

Which "bad" free agents are getting $10-15MM? Urshela got $2MM. Estrada got $3MM. Gallo will get a MiLB contract or something similar. Willy Adames got $21MM next year or $15MM in savings vs. Correa.

Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

7th or 8th best SS is replaceable. Unlike the 37th or 38th best SS, it is difficult to improve from 7th or 8th best SS

[sweetmusicviola16]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need.

Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is. 

I have been looking at Kim for a number of days now. This is one player that would truly help the team once he is cleared to play. Problem is no money allowed for additions.

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate.

There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need.

Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is. 

The Twins clear $36M in a trade if they take no MLB players back. Do you really think this ownership group, with their track record, and their intent to sell would actually spend more than $15-20M of that "savings"? How many holes do you think you're filling in FA with that?

Disagree that Correa's not an MVP-caliber player, but even accepting that: 5 bWAR players are worth a LOT and are very difficult to replace. From 2021-2024 the Twins have had exactly 1 player reach 5 bWAR: Carlos Correa.

I love Royce Lewis, and I hope he reaches his ceiling, but his career bWAR is lower than Correa's bWAR from 2024.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You can argue on-field production against salary, but moving Correa does a few things:

1) Kills public perception.  Correa waving his no-trade indicates he has given up on this team.  By trading Correa, the Twins would be waving the white flag and be saying a rebuild is coming.

2) Kills television revenue.  On old TV contracts, the Twins got paid whether they were competitive or not.  The Twins new television contract requires subscriptions to make money, meaning an entertaining on-field product.  Trading your best player does not help this situation.

3) Kills clubhouse.  See #1.  Morale would fall into the Pit of Despair.

4) Creates a gaping hole at SS and in the lineup, with nobody ready to fill those shoes.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

7th or 8th best SS is replaceable. Unlike the 37th or 38th best SS, it is difficult to improve from 7th or 8th best SS

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You can argue on-field production against salary, but moving Correa does a few things:

1) Kills public perception.  

2) Kills television revenue.  

3) Kills clubhouse.  
 

After 2024 the public perception of the Twins seems like it's near a low since 2000. The risk of 1 and 2 is therefore low since it can hardly go lower. 

And that clubhouse seemed a mess at the end of the season too. So who knows if shaking up the clubhouse would even be bad. 

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Which "bad" free agents are getting $10-15MM? Urshela got $2MM. Estrada got $3MM. Gallo will get a MiLB contract or something similar. Willy Adames got $21MM next year or $15MM in savings vs. Correa.

Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

Adames also has never had a 5 bWAR season in his career and despite playing 75 more games than Correa in 2024, he still ended up with a lower bWAR (which is a counting stat).

Henderson, Witt Jr, Seager...who else are you sure is better than Correa? And I'm amazed that you think that the 7th or 8th best player at any position is replaceable.

[mnfireman]

41 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Problem is we need to make some trades to both lower payroll and a suite talent to fill multiple holes. Yet it seems like Falvey is just sitting around waiting for teams to call him with amazing offers. Get off your butt and put something together. Teams are getting close to finalizing their rosters, they won't need any of our guys soon....looks like same team as last year. 

So, the players the Twins have aren't good enough to play here, but some other team should take them so they can play them?

If we as fans think that several players aren't worth the salary they are being paid, then I'm quite positive that MLB executives that do this for a living probably know this as well [insert sarcasm emoji here]. Falvey/Zoll/Adler can't force another team to make a trade.

Falvey has put together a good roster with a good mix of young affordable players, veterans earning a fair MLB salary and superstars earning mega millions. That being said, a combination of injuries, under-performance and young players not reaching their projected potential has hurt this team. Where this falls - ownership, front office, coaching or the players themselves is what needs to be addressed and fixed.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

After 2024 the public perception of the Twins seems like it's near a low since 2000. The risk of 1 and 2 is therefore low since it can hardly go lower. 

And that clubhouse seemed a mess at the end of the season too. So who knows if shaking up the clubhouse would even be bad. 

I generally agree with your first point.  However making this move would make upward momentum extremely difficult.

I am curious how much of the end of season collapse is attributed to clubhouse morale.  Losing is never good for morale, but it did not seem to be an issue for the first 110+ games.

[GNess]

Correa gives the Twins at minimum the hope of doing something special, such as his leadership and clutch overall play in the 2023 playoffs.

Why would the Twins give up on hope?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

After 2024 the public perception of the Twins seems like it's near a low since 2000. The risk of 1 and 2 is therefore low since it can hardly go lower. 

And that clubhouse seemed a mess at the end of the season too. So who knows if shaking up the clubhouse would even be bad. 

Apparently your history as a fan doesn’t go back far enough to appreciate what low morale really was.  It has plenty far to go down. 

[hitterscount]

First off, he is a really good player when he's on the field. I never understood  or put much stock in prospects, 3/4 of them never pan out, and those are the highest rated ones.. Half of the players on most teams were drafted after the 8 the round. So trading a known commodity for prospects is a crap shoot. 

Why are the cheap ass owners unwilling to go over their self-imposed spending limit when this team is really 2-3 solid players away from contending (and a major league caliber manager). Wouldn't fielding a competitive team make them more attractive when they try and unload the team next year? There's no way I trade Correa if I'm the money pinching cheap ass Pohland's. He is arguably worth more on the team the 2-3 propects that will likely never pan out.

[NYCTK]

39 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I generally agree with your first point.  However making this move would make upward momentum extremely difficult.

I am curious how much of the end of season collapse is attributed to clubhouse morale.  Losing is never good for morale, but it did not seem to be an issue for the first 110+ games.

I think the potential sale of the team is the biggest possible upward momentum since the new ballpark so I don't think it's that big a concern. 

And agreed on morale. 

[Doctor Gast]

I've hated the fruitless articles of trading our core players. CLE does a lot of things right but dumping their key core players is not one of them. On this point, I don't want to mimic them. Correa is the heart of this core that broke the winless postseason games. After we signed Lopez our winning window was opened. We have a great core & farm system to keep this window open for a while. We have to keep the magic from that core together as much as possible the more we compromise the core the more we lose the magic, last season was a taste of that. If we can't win it's not the core's fault where we need to shake things up, changes would be needed elsewhere.

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Apparently your history as a fan doesn’t go back far enough to appreciate what low morale really was.  It has plenty far to go down. 

I was in the dome in the late 90s. I anticapte that same atmosphere this season. Being awful is sometimes more interesting as a fan than just being boring and mediocre with no desire to improve. 

I believe that until this team is sold, the risk of further alienating the fans is pretty low. And once it is sold fans will pay attention again, almost immediately. 

Let's not forget, the Twins didn't even sell out their home playoff games in their only series win in 20 years. So what really is the risk of trading away a player with an iffy contract? 

[Schmoeman5]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've hated the fruitless articles of trading our core players. CLE does a lot of things right but dumping their key core players is not one of them. On this point, I don't want to mimic them. Correa is the heart of this core that broke the winless postseason games. After we signed Lopez our winning window was opened. We have a great core & farm system to keep this window open for a while. We have to keep the magic from that core together as much as possible the more we compromise the core the more we lose the magic, last season was a taste of that. If we can't win it's not the core's fault where we need to shake things up, changes would be needed elsewhere.

Here a core, there a core, every where a core core. Sycamore poor pore. Have some more, iron ore on the floor. Shut that door.

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

CLE does a lot of things right but dumping their key core players is not one of them.

 

Ever since they failed to return value for the departing Thome and Ramirez they've traded away the likes of:

CC Sabathia 

Fransisco Lindor 

Cliff Lee 

Roberto Alomar 

Bartolo Colon

Corey Kluber

Victor Martinez

Trevor Bauer 

Carlos Carrasco 

Jhonny Peralta 

And just this week Josh Naylor

 

Unless they're able to secure to a team friendly deal, everyone in Cleveland is available at all times essentially. 

 

Edit: I misunderstood what you're saying. But I think Cleveland is exceptional at this actually. So I disagree but for different reasons.