3 Reasons Why the Minnesota Twins Should Approach Royce Lewis About a Contract Extension

[Cody Christie]

The Twins and Royce Lewis are coming off a disappointing end to the 2024 season. Here are three reasons why now might be the right time for the two sides to work on a contract extension.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Royce Lewis is at a critical juncture in his professional career. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but injuries and inconsistent performances have clouded his trajectory. With four years of team control remaining, the Twins should consider offering Lewis a contract extension now, which could benefit both the player and the organization.

1. Injuries Have Limited Lewis’ Early Career
Lewis’ path to the big leagues has been anything but smooth. His injury timeline reads like a horror novel, especially with the high expectations surrounding him as the number-one overall pick. He tore his ACL in February 2021 and missed 186 games. Just 12 games after returning to the Twins, Lewis tore his ACL again in May 2022 and missed 189 games.

In July 2023, Lewis missed 36 games with an oblique strain and another 11 games in September with a right hamstring strain. Last season, he left Opening Day with a quad injury that cost him 60 games. He had an abductor injury in early July and missed 17 games. His extensive injury history could help the Twins sign him for a more team-friendly deal. 

2. Poor Performance in 2024
Despite these setbacks, Lewis returned to the field in 2024 and showcased his resilience, but his campaign ended on a sour note. His offensive numbers slumped in the second half (.620 OPS), and questions about his defensive future persisted. In September, his performance was particularly rough. In his final 22 games, he went 12-for-80 (.150 BA) with 21 strikeouts and a .406 OPS. Baseball-Reference pegs his WPA during this stretch as being worth -1.63 wins. Extending Lewis now allows the Twins to lock in a player who could still develop into a star while accounting for the inconsistencies in his overall performance. 

3. The Uncertain Defensive Future
Once projected as the Twins' shortstop of the future, Lewis has seen his defensive assignments shift. Carlos Correa’s presence has pushed Lewis to third base, and discussions have been held about moving him to second base for 2025. While he has shown versatility, he hasn’t excelled defensively at any position. He was worth 2 OAA at third base last season and -1 OAA at second in minimal action. There were concerns about his throwing mechanics at third base and a shift to second might be the team’s best long-term option. 

Minnesota had Lewis start working out at second base, and he was vocal about not wanting to switch positions in the middle of a division race. He started one game at second and combined for eight innings at the new position. These factors create an opportunity for the Twins to approach Lewis with an extension at a time when his market value might be lower than it could be after a healthy and productive season.

Why an Extension Makes Sense for Lewis
Coming off a subpar finish to 2024 and with an injury history, Lewis might be open to financial security through an extension. While most Scott Boras clients opt to test free agency, there are exceptions. Recent deals for players in similar situations demonstrate the value of an early extension.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pittsburgh Pirates): In 2022, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70 million deal with the Pirates, securing financial stability despite questions about his offensive upside. Lewis, whose potential offensive ceiling is higher, could sign a comparable or slightly larger deal to reflect his talent.
• Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): While Franco’s extension (11 years, $182 million) represents a higher tier of talent, the Rays prioritized long-term control early in his career. Franco has faced off-the-field issues that will prevent him from earning this contract. The Twins could offer Lewis a scaled-down version, perhaps seven years, $90 million, to account for his injury history.

The Boras Factor
Scott Boras’ clients are known for seeking maximum value in free agency. Yet, extensions are not unheard of under his representation. Stephen Strasburg’s $175 million extension with the Nationals before free agency demonstrates that Boras’ stance is negotiable under the right circumstances. It could appeal to both sides if the Twins offer Lewis a deal that secures his financial future while allowing him to hit the market while he's still young enough to get a longer contract offer. 

Why the Twins Should Act Now
The Twins have built their roster around a mix of veterans and young talent. Locking up Lewis could help solidify their core and send a message of commitment to winning. Additionally, early extensions often come at a discount compared to the contracts players receive closer to free agency. Offering Lewis a deal now before he fully breaks out could save the Twins significant money while providing stability for the player.

Lewis has the talent to be a cornerstone player for the Twins. By offering him a contract extension now, the team can mitigate the risks associated with his injury history while securing a potential bargain on a high-upside player. The timing is ideal, as Lewis might value financial security more than ever, and the Twins can ensure he remains a key part of their future plans. Whether or not Boras and Lewis entertain the idea, it’s a conversation the Twins should start sooner rather than later.

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How much should the Twins offer Lewis? Is the time right to offer him an extension? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Johnny Ringo]

Royce is serially injured, seems to have an attitude problem and has no defensive position. He was drafted as an athlete but has bulked up into a physically (and seemingly, mentally) inflexible whiff machine.

Further, the last thing ownership wants to do, as they look to sell,  is saddle themselves with anything that looks vaguely like this contract.

The Pohlads wouldn't do it in a million years and from a pure baseball perspective, I don't blame them.  

[Brett]

I’d wait a year to see if he can be more consistent. Locking him in for 7 or 8 years right now doesn’t seem wise with our payroll constraints.

[nicksaviking]

If the Pohlad's are selling the team, I just don't see them putting more guaranteed payments on the expense sheet. Even if it was a good idea from a baseball standpoint, it doesn't seem like a good idea from an executive standpoint.

As cool as it is, you don't slap one of those Calvin peeing on a Yankees logo on your car when you try to sell it. There's a slim chance potential buyers won't find it as appealing as you do.

[Doubles]

Man, you have some strange ideas.

[Linus]

These proposed extension articles need to include the players age and arb status as these are two large factors in considering an idea like this. Off the top of my head (which means I’m probably wrong) Royce is 26 or 27 and has four more years of team control. For me I would just pay him is arb numbers and if he is great slap a QO on him at age 31. 

[DJL44]

If you believe in buying low, this is the time to buy. If they could get him to sign that KeBryan Hayes contract I think they would do very well in the long run.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I can understand the theory behind this, but I am not sure what an extension would look like.

IMO, any contract would need to have guarantees based on playing time.  There is no way on this planet Boras would go for that.  Lewis' performance at the plate has been good, but not elite.  His defense is questionable.  His health is questionable.

Is there potential?  Of course.  His lack of health means any straight extension would likely require an overpay on the Twins part.

If you were going to discuss extension candidates, my order of priority would be:

Ryan
Ober
Lopez
Lewis
Jeffers

[tony&rodney]

Are we going to examine this scenario for Julien too?

To me, Lewis may still have value in a trade. Less than last year but if a GM was very fixed on Royce there may still be an opportunity out there.

[LambchoP]

No reason to do this now. First he needs to prove he can stay on the field for a whole year. Then we need to see what kind of numbers he puts up over a full year. Lastly, they have to figure out if he's going to be a third, second or first baseman or a DH. Lot of things up in the air with Lewis right now.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Definitely not.  You would be basing an extension off of a flicker of high potential without any sustained performance whatsoever.  This article actually did a fantastic job of telling me why the Twins should NOT give him an extension at this point.  I agree with @Linus.  Pay him until the end of his control and then slap on a QO. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

In the past I have advocated for an extension for Royce. Not now. He has to prove he can stay healthy. 

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If you were going to discuss extension candidates, my order of priority would be:

Ryan
Ober
Lopez
Lewis
Jeffers

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are already under contract until their early 30s. The Twins can't pay retail prices for starting pitchers in their 30s.

My list would be 

Jeffers

Woods-Richardson

Lewis

Duran

[bean5302]

Royce Lewis is my favorite Twins player. I would 100% advocate against extending him right now. He just hasn't proven he can be great. The same way I really disliked the Buxton extension the Twins should never have gotten themselves into.

1. Long track record of major injuries.
2. Athleticism which has been severely impacted by those injuries. Dropping from a probable 70+ grade speed guy to a 40 grade speed guy. That has to rebound before I extend him.
3. Performance. Lewis had major struggles in the 2nd half of last year. I think it's just a combination of leg injuries robbing his strength and speed, and that Lewis will rebound in 2025, but an extension now is too risky.
4. Ownership change. Locking up players to long term contracts before selling the team doesn't make sense as it reduces the new owners' flexibility. Rosters don't matter, but I bet large, long term guaranteed contracts do.
5. Chemistry. As of the end of the season, signs point to Lewis being angry with the Twins and not super happy with his team mates. Unless these issues have been cleared up, smashing Lewis together with long term team mates might not be a great idea.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

No reason to do this now. First he needs to prove he can stay on the field for a whole year. Then we need to see what kind of numbers he puts up over a full year. Lastly, they have to figure out if he's going to be a third, second or first baseman or a DH. Lot of things up in the air with Lewis right now.

If he proves that this season his price will certainly go up. He'll also be a year closer to free agency which makes him less likely to take a contract extension. Waiting is just as risky.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are already under contract until their early 30s. The Twins can't pay retail prices for starting pitchers in their 30s.

My list would be 

Jeffers

Woods-Richardson

Lewis

Duran

I agree about paying retail.  Lopez would be the only "retail" pay here.  The discount with Ryan/Ober is in extending them out of their arbitration years by a year or two and getting those "FA" years at a discount.

Extending an SP4/5 like SWR is not a huge priority IMO.  He still has a lot to prove.

I would not lock in Duran at all.  His stuff does not match his results.  Locking him in would be an overpayment. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not interested. He can't even run to a base without getting hurt. 

As pointed out, this isn't happening while the team is for sale anyway

[thelanges5]

I agree with a lot of the posts on here so far. I’d like to see him play for a full season.  If he has a good one I know that’ll drive up the cost, but that gives us a little more certainty. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree about paying retail.  Lopez would be the only "retail" pay here.  The discount with Ryan/Ober is in extending them out of their arbitration years by a year or two and getting those "FA" years at a discount.

I would rather give them qualifying offers when they're 32 and get the draft picks.

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I would not lock in Duran at all.  His stuff does not match his results.  Locking him in would be an overpayment. 

Waiting until his results improve and match his stuff would require overpaying. His value is down due to last season which means they could buy low.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Are we going to examine this scenario for Julien too?

To me, Lewis may still have value in a trade. Less than last year but if a GM was very fixed on Royce there may still be an opportunity out there.

If we could get one of those young starters, not Castillo, from Seattle - they can have Royce

[umterp23]

Lewis can be a really good player... but... as comments have shown, injuries, lack of quality defensive chops and a arbitration eligibility for 3-4 years to come I can't think why you extend him now.  His first cup of coffee for arbitration projects to be $2.3MM for '25 season.  Why would we throw out there an example of 8 year $70MM deal concept at him.  Would he most likely sign it?  Absolutely he would but now you are cash strapped for all your arbitration players this year to get them signed. 

His locked up deal would have to be escalator driven for early years to have higher number in later years and no way it should be a full no trade clause contract.  Would give him an opt out after year 4 before higher backloaded money kicks in.

Just don't think it is necessary prior to him playing at least 125-140 games with 80% defensively and not a crap ton of DH games

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Lewis can be a really good player... but... as comments have shown, injuries, lack of quality defensive chops and arbitration eligibility for 3-4 years to come I can't think why you extend him now.  His first cup of coffee for arbitration projects to be $2.3MM for '25 season.  Why would we throw out there an example of 8 year $70MM deal concept at him.  Would he most likely sign it?  Absolutely he would but now you are cash strapped for all your arbitration players this year to get them signed. 

His locked up deal would have to be escalator driven for early years to have higher number in later years and no way it should be a full no trade clause contract.  Would give him an opt out after year 4 before higher backloaded money kicks in.

Just don't think it is necessary prior to him playing at least 125-140 games with 80% defensively and not a crap ton of DH games

If you wait until he proves it there is no way in hell you get him to sign for 8 years, $70M. I doubt he would sign that contract right now. If he can play 140 games on defense and hit like we have seen, then you are looking at an Austin Riley 10 year $212M contract if you want to lock him up.

Wait until he's proven it and he's too expensive to sign.

[umterp23]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If you wait until he proves it there is no way in hell you get him to sign for 8 years, $70M. I doubt he would sign that contract right now. If he can play 140 games on defense and hit like we have seen, then you are looking at an Austin Riley 10 year $212M contract if you want to lock him up.

Wait until he's proven it and he's too expensive to sign.

It's truly a damn if you do and damn if you don't time for Lewis.  I don't slump comments truly shouldn't have been uttered last year and then truly slumped for last few months.  He is good, but can't get past the injury bugs year in year out.  If you backload the contract sure I would do it, but hasn't been a full year guy.  

If Mgmt claims they are severely cash strapped, then there will be more rookie salaried players on 26 man which hurts team as well

 

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

It's truly a damn if you do and damn if you don't time for Lewis.  I don't slump comments truly shouldn't have been uttered last year and then truly slumped for last few months.  He is good, but can't get past the injury bugs year in year out.  If you backload the contract sure I would do it, but hasn't been a full year guy.  

If Mgmt claims they are severely cash strapped, then there will be more rookie salaried players on 26 man which hurts team as well

 

He didn't say he didn't slump, he said he doesn't do the slump mindset.

[Doctor Gast]

I've said it a lot, players are like stocks. When you see an excellent solid company if you have a chance to buy low you jump on it. I don't care about his past injuries or past slump. I look at the person, a guy who can bounce back from anything, a guy like Correa who can eventually rally the troops, a leader who has a good grasp of the game. Unless the Twins go crazy & put him in the OF IMO his big injuries are behind him. This is the time to invest in Lewis, not when he has put in a full year of MVP baseball. Stop wasting money on expensive FA, invest it in extending our key players before we lose them. Lewis is the 1st I'd extend.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If you wait until he proves it there is no way in hell you get him to sign for 8 years, $70M. I doubt he would sign that contract right now. If he can play 140 games on defense and hit like we have seen, then you are looking at an Austin Riley 10 year $212M contract if you want to lock him up.

Wait until he's proven it and he's too expensive to sign.

I think a lot depends on whether or not Royce believes in his abilities. He may not be willing to take a discount rate based on his struggles last year. Just like Buxton and Berrios pushed the Twins. I don't think there's a chance Lewis takes an 8yr $70MM contract right now. What's a reasonable projection of Lewis' salary if he turns into a player similar to what we might want to extend (4 WAR+)?
a26 2025 - $2MM
a27 2026 - $6MM
a28 2027 - $10MM
a29 2028 - $18MM + QO
Buying out 4yrs of free agency for $38MM? Not happening.
Lewis will get a 5-7 year deal at AAV of $25MM+ in free agency if he's a 4+WAR player.

If Lewis were 2 years younger, I'd suspect he'd be okay agreeing to give up 1-2yrs of free agency, but now? It's going to have to be like a 10yr deal at $150MM IMHO. Colt Keith got 9yrs $82MM as a prospect with a lower ceiling and floor than Lewis.

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think a lot depends on whether or not Royce believes in his abilities. He may not be willing to take a discount rate based on his struggles last year. Just like Buxton and Berrios pushed the Twins. I don't think there's a chance Lewis takes an 8yr $70MM contract right now. What's a reasonable projection of Lewis' salary if he turns into a player similar to what we might want to extend (4 WAR+)?
a26 2025 - $2MM
a27 2026 - $6MM
a28 2027 - $10MM
a29 2028 - $18MM + QO
Buying out 4yrs of free agency for $38MM? Not happening.
Lewis will get a 5-7 year deal at AAV of $25MM+ in free agency if he's a 4+WAR player.

If Lewis were 2 years younger, I'd suspect he'd be okay agreeing to give up 1-2yrs of free agency, but now? It's going to have to be like a 10yr deal at $150MM IMHO. Colt Keith got 9yrs $82MM as a prospect with a lower ceiling and floor than Lewis.

I don't really want Royce for 10 years. I want him for 6-7, until age 31-32. Then give him the QO and get the draft pick. A 6 year, $72M offer might get an interesting counteroffer. The Twins bet $36M on those two free agent years that might be zero value if he's retired due to health reasons and Royce risks $36M if fair market value is actually $72M. Both sides are in 50/50.

[RpR]

Trade him and bring up some other rookie wonder child.

Same for Lee.

[gman]

Its not really up to current ownership. They've already proven they won't shell out the money.