3 Reasons Why the Minnesota Twins Should Approach Royce Lewis About a Contract Extension

[twinstalker]

Wow.  First, as I've said before, it makes so little sense to get in bed with Boras, but it's too late for that.  Lewis' value now lies in trade, and it's not a lot of value unless he improves a lot.  He's shown enough that Boras won't let him sign for anything close to reasonable.

If he starts out like he's done before, trade, trade, trade.  Is the front office smart enough to make a good deal?  I"m not sure.

[h2oface]

Trade him for Hunter Greene

[mluebker]

If they think his bat is worth keeping, put him at first base in 2025, where he’ll be less likely to get injured. If his offense ticks up and he can stay off the IL, offer him an extension. If not, offer him up for trade.

 

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, twinstalker said:

First, as I've said before, it makes so little sense to get in bed with Boras, but it's too late for that. 

It is quite difficult to be a major league GM and avoid dealing with Scott Boras.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If you wait until he proves it there is no way in hell you get him to sign for 8 years, $70M. I doubt he would sign that contract right now. If he can play 140 games on defense and hit like we have seen, then you are looking at an Austin Riley 10 year $212M contract if you want to lock him up.

Wait until he's proven it and he's too expensive to sign.

Agreed.

Boras as an agent and a player that’s used to being slapped on the back and the former #1 overall pick……..an extension is not in their forefront!

The whole idea is to provide some upside security to lock a guy up before he’s too expensive. It’s a two way street. If he excels, as you point out, he’s a $200M plus guy to extend.

7 years for $105M, or a bit more, seems to be in the range of suitable risk for both sides, to me. Annual $$ would be loaded much more toward the last 4 years. Lewis has major upside & he has a major injury history. Gotta meet in the middle to get a deal done. The whole premise is based on history to date - can’t wait a season for him to “prove it” since Boras will be in his ear Big Time on what he’d get in another 3 yrs.

All of this does seem moot since the Team is for sale and the checkbook is locked away right now!!

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't really want Royce for 10 years. I want him for 6-7, until age 31-32. Then give him the QO and get the draft pick. A 6 year, $72M offer might get an interesting counteroffer. The Twins bet $36M on those two free agent years that might be zero value if he's retired due to health reasons and Royce risks $36M if fair market value is actually $72M. Both sides are in 50/50.

I think the exercise would probably involve Boras and Lewis projecting Lewis' salary and doing a risk analysis. What does 1 or two years of free agency cost Royce? It costs him prime extension years. This is overly simplistic, but something like: 
Prime 3 WAR, 4 WAR, 5 WAR+
a30 = 4yrs, 5yrs, 6+yrs
a31 = 4yrs, 4yrs, 5+yrs
a32 = 3yrs, 4yrs, 4+yrs
a33 = 3yrs, 4yrs, 4yrs
a34 = 2yrs, 3yrs, 3yrs
a35 = 2yr, 2yrs, 3yrs
a36 = 1yr, 2yrs, 2yrs 

Buying out 2 years of free agency with a $70MM contract costs Lewis:
+280% < 2 WAR = -45MM (Lewis is ahead)
+175% 2 WAR = -30MM (Lewis is ahead)
-29% 3 WAR = 28MM total or (2MM + 26MM next contract)
-48% WAR = 64MM total or (24MM + 40MM next contract)
-62% 5 WAR = 113MM total or (33MM + 80MM next contract)
 

		< 2 WAR	2 WAR	3 WAR	4 WAR	5 WAR	6 WAR	> 6 WAR
2025	26	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
2026	27	3	4	5	6	7	8	10
2027	28	4.5	6	10	12	14	15	18
2028	29	6	8	15	18	20	22	25
Through Arb		15.8	20.3	32.3	38.3	43.3	47.3	55.3
2029	30	5	10	20	28	30	36	40
2030	31	5	10	20	28	30	36	40
2031	32	5	10	20	28	30	36	40
2032	33	5	8	20	28	30	36	40
2033	34		8	16	28	30	36	40
2034	35		6	16	18	30	36	40
2035	36			10	18	30	36	40
2036	37			8	18	16	36	40
2037	38			5	12	16	20	40
2038	39							40
2039	40

[RpR]

51 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Same as I said in an earlier post... give them some time to mature and master a position.  I suppose after you bring up some other rookie wonder child, that child would only receive less than a season and then according your approach, it would be on to the next rookie wonder child.  How do you ever develop your own players with this approach.

That is what the minors/spring training are for, not regular season.

[darin617]

With his injury history there's no reason to even consider an extension. He cannot become a free agent until 2029 and a lot can happen in that time. Look at the Buxton contract and tell me they would still do it if they got a "do over".