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Royce Lewis is at a critical juncture in his professional career. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but injuries and inconsistent performances have clouded his trajectory. With four years of team control remaining, the Twins should consider offering Lewis a contract extension now, which could benefit both the player and the organization.
1. Injuries Have Limited Lewis’ Early Career
Lewis’ path to the big leagues has been anything but smooth. His injury timeline reads like a horror novel, especially with the high expectations surrounding him as the number-one overall pick. He tore his ACL in February 2021 and missed 186 games. Just 12 games after returning to the Twins, Lewis tore his ACL again in May 2022 and missed 189 games.
In July 2023, Lewis missed 36 games with an oblique strain and another 11 games in September with a right hamstring strain. Last season, he left Opening Day with a quad injury that cost him 60 games. He had an abductor injury in early July and missed 17 games. His extensive injury history could help the Twins sign him for a more team-friendly deal.
2. Poor Performance in 2024
Despite these setbacks, Lewis returned to the field in 2024 and showcased his resilience, but his campaign ended on a sour note. His offensive numbers slumped in the second half (.620 OPS), and questions about his defensive future persisted. In September, his performance was particularly rough. In his final 22 games, he went 12-for-80 (.150 BA) with 21 strikeouts and a .406 OPS. Baseball-Reference pegs his WPA during this stretch as being worth -1.63 wins. Extending Lewis now allows the Twins to lock in a player who could still develop into a star while accounting for the inconsistencies in his overall performance.
3. The Uncertain Defensive Future
Once projected as the Twins' shortstop of the future, Lewis has seen his defensive assignments shift. Carlos Correa’s presence has pushed Lewis to third base, and discussions have been held about moving him to second base for 2025. While he has shown versatility, he hasn’t excelled defensively at any position. He was worth 2 OAA at third base last season and -1 OAA at second in minimal action. There were concerns about his throwing mechanics at third base and a shift to second might be the team’s best long-term option.
Minnesota had Lewis start working out at second base, and he was vocal about not wanting to switch positions in the middle of a division race. He started one game at second and combined for eight innings at the new position. These factors create an opportunity for the Twins to approach Lewis with an extension at a time when his market value might be lower than it could be after a healthy and productive season.
Why an Extension Makes Sense for Lewis
Coming off a subpar finish to 2024 and with an injury history, Lewis might be open to financial security through an extension. While most Scott Boras clients opt to test free agency, there are exceptions. Recent deals for players in similar situations demonstrate the value of an early extension.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pittsburgh Pirates): In 2022, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70 million deal with the Pirates, securing financial stability despite questions about his offensive upside. Lewis, whose potential offensive ceiling is higher, could sign a comparable or slightly larger deal to reflect his talent.
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): While Franco’s extension (11 years, $182 million) represents a higher tier of talent, the Rays prioritized long-term control early in his career. Franco has faced off-the-field issues that will prevent him from earning this contract. The Twins could offer Lewis a scaled-down version, perhaps seven years, $90 million, to account for his injury history.
The Boras Factor
Scott Boras’ clients are known for seeking maximum value in free agency. Yet, extensions are not unheard of under his representation. Stephen Strasburg’s $175 million extension with the Nationals before free agency demonstrates that Boras’ stance is negotiable under the right circumstances. It could appeal to both sides if the Twins offer Lewis a deal that secures his financial future while allowing him to hit the market while he's still young enough to get a longer contract offer.
Why the Twins Should Act Now
The Twins have built their roster around a mix of veterans and young talent. Locking up Lewis could help solidify their core and send a message of commitment to winning. Additionally, early extensions often come at a discount compared to the contracts players receive closer to free agency. Offering Lewis a deal now before he fully breaks out could save the Twins significant money while providing stability for the player.
Lewis has the talent to be a cornerstone player for the Twins. By offering him a contract extension now, the team can mitigate the risks associated with his injury history while securing a potential bargain on a high-upside player. The timing is ideal, as Lewis might value financial security more than ever, and the Twins can ensure he remains a key part of their future plans. Whether or not Boras and Lewis entertain the idea, it’s a conversation the Twins should start sooner rather than later.
How much should the Twins offer Lewis? Is the time right to offer him an extension? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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