The Pablo Lopez Extension Keeps Looking Better and Better. Should That Change the Twins’ Plans?

[Eric Blonigen]

Early in the 2023 season, the Twins signed Pablo López to a three-year extension, buying out his first two years of free agency. At the time, López had just turned 27 years old and had plenty of projectability left. Without that extension, he would be a free agent for the first time this offseason. Looking at some of the contracts teams have handed to free-agent starting pitchers over the past month, it’s clear that the Twins made a great decision, and it keeps looking better. Should that change the Twins' plans this offseason?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Pablo López may not quite be an ace, but he’s more than capable of looking like one for long stretches of time. He’s a cerebral pitcher who works tirelessly to hone his craft, and when he’s at his best, he gives echoes of Johan Santana. Over the past three seasons, he’s put up very strong results, and has been (by modern standards) a workhorse. Here’s his stat line since the start of 2022: 10.8 fWAR, 559 1/3 innings, a 20.1 K-BB%, 3.83 ERA, 3.56 FIP. That's great, and it shows Derek Falvey's prescience in targeting him via trade—and then quickly extending him.

This offseason, teams have signed guys in their 30s—many without the track record of performance López has—to some surprising deals. This makes the López contract look even more reasonable than it would in a vacuum, and causes one to wonder how other teams would truly value his services. Let’s look at some examples, and discuss what Lopez would have likely gotten on the free market this winter, had he made it that far. For the results listed for each of these pitchers, I’m also looking at the last three seasons.

Luis Severino: 3.1 fWAR / 373-1/3 IP / 14.4 K-BB% / 4.36 ERA / 4.53 FIP
The West Sacramento Athletics signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67-million deal. This is a puzzling move for so many reasons, not least among them that Severino just had his first strong, healthy season since 2018. He’s making López money to (probably) pitch like a fourth starter in a minor-league ballpark for the next three years. It’s likely the A's face an MLBPA grievance unless they get their payroll above $105 million this season, but it seems there would have been better ways of getting there.

Matthew Boyd: 1.9 fWAR / 124.0 IP / 16.5 K-BB% / 4.14 ERA / 3.89 FIP
The Chicago Cubs gave Matthew Boyd $29 million across two seasons. Over his 10-year career, he’s produced one season worth 3.0 fWAR or more, and it was way back in 2019. He’s generally shown flashes, but has been injured more than healthy.

Frankie Montas: 3.4 fWAR / 296-1/3 IP / 14.2 K-BB% / 4.43 ERA / 4.25 FIP
Where Frankie? There, Frankie. There, payday. The New York Mets inked oft-injured (and honestly, sort of mediocre) Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34-million contract. Throughout his nine-year career, he’s had two seasons of mid-rotation performance and has not looked like a frontline guy ever since running into injury trouble after being traded to the Yankees in 2022.

Yusei Kikuchi: 5.0 fWAR / 444 IP / 19.1 K-BB% / 4.24 ERA / 4.20 FIP
The Angels, for some reason, gave Kikuchi a $63-million contract for the next three seasons. This is almost identical AAV to what the Twins are paying López for the rest of his contract, and Kikuchi isn’t really a reliably playoff-caliber starter (not that the Angels will need to worry about a playoff rotation).

Michael Wacha: 7.5 fWAR / 373-1/3 IP / 14.4 K-BB% / 3.3 ERA / 3.87 FIP
The Royals re-signed Michael Wacha to a $51-million three-year deal. If you are just looking at Wacha’s past three seasons, this seems like a great deal. However, he has had as many middling seasons as good ones over his career, and is probably best viewed as a good third starter with the ability to pitch a rung up when things are going well.

Nathan Eovaldi: 6.1 fWAR / 424 IP / 16.8 K-BB% / 3.76 ERA / 3.97 FIP
Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he's just the third in the past decade to get a three-year deal at 35 or older. The Rangers just extended him for $75 million, blowing past expectations.

So. We have seen countless examples of clearly worse and older pitchers getting López-sized contracts this offseason. Blake Snell and Max Fried also recently signed, and they may give us an approximation of López's true value on the open market. While the Twins righty is not quite at their level, he is younger and has been a workhouse, something Snell can't claim, and Fried has been bitten by the injury bug as well. Let's see what they received.

Blake Snell: 10.9 fWAR / 412 IP / 21 K-BB% / 2.82 ERA / 2.98 FIP
The Dodgers gave him $182 million to pitch for five more seasons. At 32, it’s certainly possible that he doesn’t noticeably decline while pitching for them, but they will actually be paying him deferred money through 2046. You know, when Snell will be 54 years old.

Max Fried: 10.2 fWAR / 437-1/3 IP / 17.6 K-BB% / 2.80 ERA / 3.03 FIP
Fried is a lefty ace. The Yankees just Yankeed, signing him to the biggest contract in history for a lefty pitcher: $218 million over eight years. Fried is similar to López in a number of results, including value over the past three seasons. He pitches to a better ERA and FIP than López, but doesn't strike out as many guys.

Based on all of the above, if López were a free agent himself, based on his age, approach, and upside, it seems likely he would be getting something like $200 million. With three years and $64.5 million remaining on his extension, Lopez has something like $25 million in surplus value for those three years alone. 

There are still one and a half playoff-caliber starting pitchers remaining on the market: Corbin Burnes will be a get for anyone willing to pay through the nose. Walker Buehler is an ace when healthy and right, but he's had as many injury-filled seasons as good ones. The drop-off among available pitchers after those two (and arguably Jack Flaherty) is quite steep.

Were López a free agent this offseason, he would probably be the third- or fourth-best starting pitcher available, behind Burnes, Snell, and Fried. López is younger than all of them, by several years in some cases. He’s been more reliable and consistent than most of the guys listed above. The fourth-best starter available in any off-season is incredibly valuable, and if López were a free agent, the Twins could not afford him.

To be clear, before I make my final point, I’m not advocating the Twins seek to trade Pablo López. He’s a great pitcher, a great clubhouse presence, and a great asset to the organization and community. He was nails in the 2023 playoffs. The Twins want him on the team, and I do, too.

That said, it’s possible that other teams will come to the same conclusion laid out above, and could blow the front office away with an offer. In that case, it makes sense to listen. If a team is willing to drastically overpay, and the return is at least one other similarly impactful player that improves the Twins’ chances at a deep playoff run in 2025 and 2026, it’s worth entertaining. Either way, as fans, we can appreciate the savvy move Derek Falvey made in extending López, and we can feel grateful for López fronting a strong rotation. Let's hope we have more Pablo Days ahead. If not, it seems certain it'll be worth it.

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[LewFordLives]

I don't think it changes their plans, because I don't think he was being shopped before and I don't think he's being shopped now. I don't believe the Twins starting pitching is as deep as some people on this website believe. If they trade Lopez, they could fill some holes, but would be creating another. Matthews, Festa, etc...are still unproven.

[DJL44]

Negotiating that extension makes Falvey look really good at his job.

Lopez is very likely to get a qualifying offer and generate a draft pick in 3 seasons. That's exactly what they should be doing - keep the pitcher until age 31, get the draft pick, and let them go to free agency. Hopefully they can do the same with Ryan and Ober.

[Vanimal46]

Since it is mandated by ownership that payroll needs to be cut, I will continue to pound the drum that Lopez is the most logical trade candidate. It sheds the most payroll off 2025, and he will receive the highest trade return out of anyone else (Correa, Buxton, Paddack, Vazquez)

Keep close tabs on Baltimore. It’s a crucial offseason for them and they’re potentially losing both Corbin Burnes and 40 HR hitter Santander. They’re a pretty good match for a trade partner this winter. 

[bean5302]

The Lopez extension is fine in a vacuum, but like all the rosy TD hype machine articles on Lopez, this article dodges some concerning parts to Lopez's performance and intentionally misleads the reader about other pitchers/competition.

Free agents making 50-75% the AAV under short contracts are not comparable to Lopez's contract which came as an extension while Lopez was under team control for 2 more seasons. Lopez was not in free agency. The article is also biased against other pitchers in this list, and the cheap shot about the Angels playoff hopes is impressive coming from a Twins site...

Luckily, we can look at the last 3 years of Lopez (to only include healthy seasons) including results from Miami while also dinging other pitchers who've had recent injuries. Let's ignore that 5.11 ERA for the first half last year, how Lopez's actual results are often worse than his FIP, and let's also ignore the performances of the pitchers coming off impressive seasons before signing their contracts.

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Keep close tabs on Baltimore. It’s a crucial offseason for them and they’re potentially losing both Corbin Burnes and 40 HR hitter Santander. They’re a pretty good match for a trade partner this winter. 

I'm not in favor of trading Pablo Lopez but can live with a trade that brings back a player who can make a difference. I'm not as keen on Baltimore's prospects as many. Coby and Basallo are ok but somewhat limited defensively. Other than those two, who Baltimore has been not listening on, the rest of their guys are not worth discussing for Lopez. Boston has some talent though. Even in a deal with Boston, I want Duran. I do get that Pablo's value is high for possible returns and that his salary also gives the Pohlads more money to bank. I would not, necessarily expect that money to go back into salaries for players.

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Boston has some talent though. Even in a deal with Boston, I want Duran.

 Boston just traded 4 prospects, including Teel, for Garrett Crochet. It’s Baltimore’s time to act before their championship window slams shut. 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 Boston just traded 4 prospects, including Teel, for Garrett Crochet. It’s Baltimore’s time to act before their championship window slams shut. 

Thank you for the heads up. I liked Teel. Looks like the only option now is Jarren Duran. i don't much interest in the others.

[gmwannabe]

I had Teel at the top of my wish list. Time to grab Rushing from the Dodgers before he's gone too. Castro and Duran?

[tony&rodney]

I just noticed the second sentence in the heading and wondered, Does anyone have any remote idea of a plan that the Twins are using or following?

[Doctor Gast]

57 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 Boston just traded 4 prospects, including Teel, for Garrett Crochet. It’s Baltimore’s time to act before their championship window slams shut. 

Sad to see we lost our opportunity.

Extending Lopez was a no-brainer. I would have been very disappointed if they hadn't.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Since it is mandated by ownership that payroll needs to be cut, I will continue to pound the drum that Lopez is the most logical trade candidate. It sheds the most payroll off 2025, and he will receive the highest trade return out of anyone else (Correa, Buxton, Paddack, Vazquez)

Keep close tabs on Baltimore. It’s a crucial offseason for them and they’re potentially losing both Corbin Burnes and 40 HR hitter Santander. They’re a pretty good match for a trade partner this winter. 

While I agree Lopez is a logical option, they can get to an acceptable number by moving Paddack.  Lopez has 3 years of control so they can revisit using him as a trade piece next year in the very happy event that some of the prospects (Festa/Matthews/Ynoa/Morris/Raya/Prielipp/Lewis/Culpepper) continue to develop.  If we are so fortunate as to see our pipeline actually deliver, trading Lopez next year or even at the deadline this year could be the way to get a good MLB ready catcher.  Obviously, this is optimistic but not pie in the sky given the number of quality pitching prospects.

[gman]

I would like to see other pitchers either on the team or in the minors force Lopez down from Ace to number 2 or 3. That to me would be ideal.

[mikelink45]

The value that good SP have is mind boggling, but that also means that if we want to have a high quality pitcher we need to hang on to what we have - the price to replace that pitcher will only go up.  So I am a no on trading Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  I guess I would add SWR right now and I am open to trading Paddack. 

It reminds me of a discussion with our son who is in a market where the prices are going crazy.  Hey we can sell our home now for $$$$$$$$$$ - great, but can you get anything better once you have sold because the prices are going up all over the place.  Better to hang on until you can actually afford to improve on your situation.  

Give our young pitchers all the attention we can.  We have 12 coaches - hire two more if needed, they are cheaper than replacements.  We seem to have a group of pitchers on the cusp - Festa, Raya, Zebby, Morris.  And we have potential RP in Varland and Moran, but no stud,  This is also why I do not want to see Jax as a SP - we have more potential there than we do in RP. 

[Blyleven2011]

Lopez is making good money now  with the extension they gave him ...

Couple more years with the twins and he'll reach free agency  and with the price of doing business going up and up  he will receive a nice payday  ...

Like DocBauer said , Lopez will be given a qualifying offer , but he could be traded in his last year if the return  is better than a qualify offer , just like berrios  ...

[nicksaviking]

If this team solely focuses on getting a catcher in return, instead of the best player in return, it's doomed to be a myopic and disastrous move. 

Not that I have any interest in trading Lopez, especially for prospects. Prove you can get enough of these guys going before you go out and get more. I don't know why Boston or Baltimore or Sacramento's young players are any more likely to hit than the ones already in house.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

If this team solely focuses on getting a catcher in return, instead of the best player in return, it's doomed to be a myopic and disastrous move. 

Not that I have any interest in trading Lopez, especially for prospects. Prove you can get enough of these guys going before you go out and get more. I don't know why Boston or Baltimore or Sacramento's young players are any more likely to hit than the ones already in house.

Agreed. Plus I don’t want to use valuable trade assets to acquire a catcher. In this org they are going to be a half time player so keep Jeffers and sign a defensive backup style guy for cheaper. 

[tony&rodney]

The discussions about trading a pitcher like Pablo Lopez and/or a shortstop like Carlos Correa cause me some concern in regards to the unknown directives coming from ownership. If there is a move to further reduce the roster expenses, will the Twins be able to extract any value from a trade when teams may view the transaction as more or less obligatory? This seems to be what occurred last offseason with Polanco and it already seems like Paddack needs to be moved for financial purposes alone. Perhaps given the view of roster expenses shifting rather markedly an unfortunate loss of a key player or two should not surprise us this offseason. I hope good decisions are made but I'm not very confident about outcomes as of today.

[Parfigliano]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The discussions about trading a pitcher like Pablo Lopez and/or a shortstop like Carlos Correa cause me some concern in regards to the unknown directives coming from ownership. If there is a move to further reduce the roster expenses, will the Twins be able to extract any value from a trade when teams may view the transaction as more or less obligatory? This seems to be what occurred last offseason with Polanco and it already seems like Paddack needs to be moved for financial purposes alone. Perhaps given the view of roster expenses shifting rather markedly an unfortunate loss of a key player or two should not surprise us this offseason. I hope good decisions are made but I'm not very confident about outcomes as of today.

Judging by last year getting rid of Polanco was the right move.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Judging by last year getting rid of Polanco was the right move.

Polanco was traded to reduce salary and yes, he had a poor season. Does this mean a trade of Correa for pretty much no return or same for Pablo is judged as the right move based on how they perform next year? Ownership sets the budget and we live with how F & S balance the roster near the number.

[Jocko87]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Polanco was traded to reduce salary and yes, he had a poor season. Does this mean a trade of Correa for pretty much no return or same for Pablo is judged as the right move based on how they perform next year? Ownership sets the budget and we live with how F & S balance the roster near the number.

Polanco salary was reason 4 or 5 why he was traded.  If you look at that trade as a salary dump, I can't help ya.

What is this F & S thing you keep saying? It's not catchy enough for me.

[Jocko87]

This is a good contract.  Correa is a good contract.  Buxton is a good contract.  Paddack is a good contract.  I think Vazquez is a good contract but some may disagree.

They aren't getting rid of good contracts.  They might make a sensible baseball move that involves one of these players but that path is hard to see with the big 3. 

They aren't going to cut their own throats so they can sell a worse business less money.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Judging by last year getting rid of Polanco was the right move.

Going with that logic, they should have never picked up his 10 million option. Polanco wasn't a salary dump they picked his salary up because they thought at that price they could trade him for pieces that helped last year and in the future.

[LambchoP]

This team needs to decide what they're doing. If they intend to compete, which they should since we have Correa Buxton and Pablo at their peaks, then they need to stop penny pinching and get on the phone now. Fill the holes in the roster with competent players and make a push for the division. Any playoff exposure makes them more money and more attractive to potential buyers.

If we're not going to try and compete, then just admit it. Trade Correa, Pablo and maybe Buxton for all the young talent you can get. Either way they need to decide one way or the other. This in between crap is killing the team and alienating the fan base worse than ever.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This is a good contract.  Correa is a good contract.  Buxton is a good contract.  Paddack is a good contract.  I think Vazquez is a good contract but some may disagree.

They aren't getting rid of good contracts.  They might make a sensible baseball move that involves one of these players but that path is hard to see with the big 3. 

They aren't going to cut their own throats so they can sell a worse business less money.

I agree with most of this post.  However, in professional sports, less financial obligations when selling a team can be an advantage, not a disadvantage.  Look at the Mets: A new owner comes in and tries to be the savior of the team by spending lots of money.  Bad teams can become good teams very quickly in pro sports.

The on-field product for the Twins has a very optimistic future:
- Young talent on great contracts at the MLB level
- A young, strong SP core under contract for a few more years
- A strong MiLB system, with Jenkins potential lighting up the future
- A (currently) very manageable payroll

A new owner could come in, spend some money, and with potentially 2-3 moves make this team a legit WS contender.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

If the Twins were willing to commit some money, they should:
- Look to extend Lopez 1-2 more years
- Lock in Ober and Ryan for 1-2 of their FA years
- Be willing to keep Paddack

SP will keep this team competitive.  They have other issues, but a strong SP staff will always have them in the discussion.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

This team needs to decide what they're doing. If they intend to compete, which they should since we have Correa Buxton and Pablo at their peaks, then they need to stop penny pinching and get on the phone now. Fill the holes in the roster with competent players and make a push for the division. Any playoff exposure makes them more money and more attractive to potential buyers.

If we're not going to try and compete, then just admit it. Trade Correa, Pablo and maybe Buxton for all the young talent you can get. Either way they need to decide one way or the other. This in between crap is killing the team and alienating the fan base worse than ever.

Really hoping TC is sold well before any potential upcoming playoffs exposure.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree with most of this post.  However, in professional sports, less financial obligations when selling a team can be an advantage, not a disadvantage.  Look at the Mets: A new owner comes in and tries to be the savior of the team by spending lots of money.  Bad teams can become good teams very quickly in pro sports.

The on-field product for the Twins has a very optimistic future:
- Young talent on great contracts at the MLB level
- A young, strong SP core under contract for a few more years
- A strong MiLB system, with Jenkins potential lighting up the future
- A (currently) very manageable payroll

A new owner could come in, spend some money, and with potentially 2-3 moves make this team a legit WS contender.  

I look at it from the angle of the quality of the financial obligations rather than having the obligations or not.  Having three top tier talents locked up well below replacement cost is attractive to a business buyer.  Owing money to, say Anthony Rendon, would be a negative.