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Pablo López may not quite be an ace, but he’s more than capable of looking like one for long stretches of time. He’s a cerebral pitcher who works tirelessly to hone his craft, and when he’s at his best, he gives echoes of Johan Santana. Over the past three seasons, he’s put up very strong results, and has been (by modern standards) a workhorse. Here’s his stat line since the start of 2022: 10.8 fWAR, 559 1/3 innings, a 20.1 K-BB%, 3.83 ERA, 3.56 FIP. That's great, and it shows Derek Falvey's prescience in targeting him via trade—and then quickly extending him.
This offseason, teams have signed guys in their 30s—many without the track record of performance López has—to some surprising deals. This makes the López contract look even more reasonable than it would in a vacuum, and causes one to wonder how other teams would truly value his services. Let’s look at some examples, and discuss what Lopez would have likely gotten on the free market this winter, had he made it that far. For the results listed for each of these pitchers, I’m also looking at the last three seasons.
Luis Severino: 3.1 fWAR / 373-1/3 IP / 14.4 K-BB% / 4.36 ERA / 4.53 FIP
The West Sacramento Athletics signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67-million deal. This is a puzzling move for so many reasons, not least among them that Severino just had his first strong, healthy season since 2018. He’s making López money to (probably) pitch like a fourth starter in a minor-league ballpark for the next three years. It’s likely the A's face an MLBPA grievance unless they get their payroll above $105 million this season, but it seems there would have been better ways of getting there.
Matthew Boyd: 1.9 fWAR / 124.0 IP / 16.5 K-BB% / 4.14 ERA / 3.89 FIP
The Chicago Cubs gave Matthew Boyd $29 million across two seasons. Over his 10-year career, he’s produced one season worth 3.0 fWAR or more, and it was way back in 2019. He’s generally shown flashes, but has been injured more than healthy.
Frankie Montas: 3.4 fWAR / 296-1/3 IP / 14.2 K-BB% / 4.43 ERA / 4.25 FIP
Where Frankie? There, Frankie. There, payday. The New York Mets inked oft-injured (and honestly, sort of mediocre) Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34-million contract. Throughout his nine-year career, he’s had two seasons of mid-rotation performance and has not looked like a frontline guy ever since running into injury trouble after being traded to the Yankees in 2022.
Yusei Kikuchi: 5.0 fWAR / 444 IP / 19.1 K-BB% / 4.24 ERA / 4.20 FIP
The Angels, for some reason, gave Kikuchi a $63-million contract for the next three seasons. This is almost identical AAV to what the Twins are paying López for the rest of his contract, and Kikuchi isn’t really a reliably playoff-caliber starter (not that the Angels will need to worry about a playoff rotation).
Michael Wacha: 7.5 fWAR / 373-1/3 IP / 14.4 K-BB% / 3.3 ERA / 3.87 FIP
The Royals re-signed Michael Wacha to a $51-million three-year deal. If you are just looking at Wacha’s past three seasons, this seems like a great deal. However, he has had as many middling seasons as good ones over his career, and is probably best viewed as a good third starter with the ability to pitch a rung up when things are going well.
Nathan Eovaldi: 6.1 fWAR / 424 IP / 16.8 K-BB% / 3.76 ERA / 3.97 FIP
Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he's just the third in the past decade to get a three-year deal at 35 or older. The Rangers just extended him for $75 million, blowing past expectations.
So. We have seen countless examples of clearly worse and older pitchers getting López-sized contracts this offseason. Blake Snell and Max Fried also recently signed, and they may give us an approximation of López's true value on the open market. While the Twins righty is not quite at their level, he is younger and has been a workhouse, something Snell can't claim, and Fried has been bitten by the injury bug as well. Let's see what they received.
Blake Snell: 10.9 fWAR / 412 IP / 21 K-BB% / 2.82 ERA / 2.98 FIP
The Dodgers gave him $182 million to pitch for five more seasons. At 32, it’s certainly possible that he doesn’t noticeably decline while pitching for them, but they will actually be paying him deferred money through 2046. You know, when Snell will be 54 years old.
Max Fried: 10.2 fWAR / 437-1/3 IP / 17.6 K-BB% / 2.80 ERA / 3.03 FIP
Fried is a lefty ace. The Yankees just Yankeed, signing him to the biggest contract in history for a lefty pitcher: $218 million over eight years. Fried is similar to López in a number of results, including value over the past three seasons. He pitches to a better ERA and FIP than López, but doesn't strike out as many guys.
Based on all of the above, if López were a free agent himself, based on his age, approach, and upside, it seems likely he would be getting something like $200 million. With three years and $64.5 million remaining on his extension, Lopez has something like $25 million in surplus value for those three years alone.
There are still one and a half playoff-caliber starting pitchers remaining on the market: Corbin Burnes will be a get for anyone willing to pay through the nose. Walker Buehler is an ace when healthy and right, but he's had as many injury-filled seasons as good ones. The drop-off among available pitchers after those two (and arguably Jack Flaherty) is quite steep.
Were López a free agent this offseason, he would probably be the third- or fourth-best starting pitcher available, behind Burnes, Snell, and Fried. López is younger than all of them, by several years in some cases. He’s been more reliable and consistent than most of the guys listed above. The fourth-best starter available in any off-season is incredibly valuable, and if López were a free agent, the Twins could not afford him.
To be clear, before I make my final point, I’m not advocating the Twins seek to trade Pablo López. He’s a great pitcher, a great clubhouse presence, and a great asset to the organization and community. He was nails in the 2023 playoffs. The Twins want him on the team, and I do, too.
That said, it’s possible that other teams will come to the same conclusion laid out above, and could blow the front office away with an offer. In that case, it makes sense to listen. If a team is willing to drastically overpay, and the return is at least one other similarly impactful player that improves the Twins’ chances at a deep playoff run in 2025 and 2026, it’s worth entertaining. Either way, as fans, we can appreciate the savvy move Derek Falvey made in extending López, and we can feel grateful for López fronting a strong rotation. Let's hope we have more Pablo Days ahead. If not, it seems certain it'll be worth it.
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