Biggest Question for Minnesota Twins at MLB Winter Meetings: Do They Trust Their Talent?

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s Winter Meetings start this week, and the Twins have multiple questions to approach the crackling hot stove. The biggest question might be whether the front office trusts the talent it has already assembled.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

MLB’s Winter Meetings can signal a kickoff to the offseason, with all 30 front offices gathering in the same location to have face-to-face conversations. The Twins have been quiet at recent Winter Meetings, and many expect the same this season. There is little room in the team’s payroll to add via free agency, but the team can start having conversations about trading players. Minnesota enters the offseason with one of the AL’s best-projected rosters, but there are a lot of boxes to check before Opening Day.

The Twins' most critical question might not be whom they acquire but how much they trust the talent already on the roster. After a 2024 campaign that ended with a disappointing collapse, the organization must decide whether to double down on its current core or explore bold changes to reshape the team.  

There’s a plausible version of this offseason where the Twins assess their roster, find ample reason to "run it back," and aim to prove that this talented group can achieve more. The foundation is there:  

- A Strong Rotation Core: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober provide a reliable trio atop the rotation. López continues to anchor the staff; Ryan has improved his secondary pitches while dialing back his reliance on the fastball; and Ober offers consistency as a playoff-caliber starter. The Twins also have plenty of depth in the rotation beyond the big three, which is invaluable.

- Star Power in the Lineup: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis represent a trio capable of elite production. Correa rebounded in 2024 with an All-Star first half, before injury struck. Buxton played over 100 games for only the second time in his career. Lewis has shown flashes of the brilliant talent that made him one of baseball’s top prospects, but he needs to find more offensive consistency.

- Complementary Talent: Players like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, and Edouard Julien can be strong complementary pieces. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán are among the AL’s best relievers, and the Twins have the potential to move Cole Sands and Louie Varland into key late-inning relief roles.  

There's a case for maintaining continuity with solid pieces in place and young talent waiting in the wings. However, this decision isn’t without risk.

When the Whole is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts  
For all this group's theoretical upside, the 2024 season was a disappointment. Injuries, underperformance, and untimely struggles combined to derail a promising campaign. The Twins had over a 90% chance of making the playoffs in the second half before a collapse saw the Tigers run past them for the AL’s final Wild Card spot. Trusting the same players to take a step forward without significant changes could be overly optimistic.  

While the Twins likely have little room to maneuver in free agency due to payroll constraints, real change would require trades involving significant pieces. Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez are obvious trade candidates, but is that enough to truly shake up the roster?  

Trading from the core is an option. Would the Twins consider dealing a young starter like Ryan, Ober, or Simeon Woods Richardson to address a glaring need? Could Lewis net a premium player to bolster the lineup? These are high-stakes decisions, especially when young talent is under team control for years to come.

The Case for and Against Standing Pat  
If the Twins trust their talent, running it back is a bet on better health, further development, and improved results. A fully healthy Correa, Buxton, and Lewis anchoring the lineup could elevate the offense. López, Ryan, and Ober have proven capable in the rotation, while younger pitchers like David Festa and Zebby Matthews could add depth.  

However, there’s a real risk that this core group might be inherently flawed. The 2024 collapse suggests deeper issues that continuity alone may not solve. Banking on complementary hitters like Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, and Julien to step up without a contingency plan could expose the team if they fall short again.

How Bold Will the Twins Be?
The Twins' front office faces a tricky balancing act: How do you address shortcomings while avoiding unnecessary upheaval? If the organization believes its roster is championship-caliber, sticking with its core is the logical move. If not, this winter could be one of difficult but necessary decisions.

Fans will hope the front office has learned from recent missteps. Whether they run it back or shake it up, the Twins must ensure that the 2025 roster avoids the pitfalls that plagued the team in 2024. After all, trust in talent can only take a team so far. Execution and a little luck win games in October.

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What do you think? Should the Twins stick with their current roster, or is it time for bold changes? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

Those who come to Twins Daily are split on this topic. Falvey & Sons are tied to their guys in various ways and understandably still want to see a positive end result from "their" guys. A majority (slim perhaps) of TD posts agree with the idea of rolling it back and knocking on wood. Sometimes that works.

The guys in Seattle and San Diego rarely let things roll. They attempt to address perceived weaknesses. A few folks on TD are wanting to see the Twins become more proactive in addressing various concerns with the roster.

The sad part is we seem resigned to wait until March to see which players are still seeking a team. Other than the Cubs, the Twins will almost certainly begin 2025 with the largest payroll in either the AL or NL Central divisions. If three or four top free agents sign this week, there should be some real opportunities for transactions. Are the Twins prepared to act?

[dberthia]

I predict another season with "hope" as the main strategy- trotting out mainly the same group and expecting better results. And I see no reason to anoint Royce Lewis as a "star" at this point- let's see if he can get back to "adequate" first.

[bean5302]

Unless the Twins are absolutely burning it all down, I think they're going to need to rely on their core whether or not they trust in it.

In my opinion, trading Royce Lewis makes no sense unless he's part of some huge package deal. Players who are already considered reliable high value guys are pretty much all going to have high salaries as well. If you're trading Lewis for a player who already makes a lot of money, it's an untenable position for the Twins without a corresponding packaged player where the Twins are dumping salary. If you're trading Lewis for an unreliable or unestablished prospect/player, what's the point?

[1985Fan]

The FO stood pat during last two last trade deadlines. Their message was that the roster already had the talent to go deep into October. I doubt that they have changed their analysis since then. They’ll roll out basically the same roster.

I think the FO is betting on this roster to produce and the guys at AAA being ready to contribute later this year. New owner may bring big changes, flush this FO and completely make over the roster. I think Falvey sits tight to wait to see how it shakes out. 

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Unless the Twins are absolutely burning it all down, I think they're going to need to rely on their core whether or not they trust in it.

In my opinion, trading Royce Lewis makes no sense unless he's part of some huge package deal. Players who are already considered reliable high value guys are pretty much all going to have high salaries as well. If you're trading Lewis for a player who already makes a lot of money, it's an untenable position for the Twins without a corresponding packaged player where the Twins are dumping salary. If you're trading Lewis for an unreliable or unestablished prospect/player, what's the point?

Totally agree that any consideration of a transaction involving Royce Lewis would need to return a controlled solid MLB player. R. Lewis still has a high ceiling and I'm sure there are teams who believe in his value. The only deal I have come up with is very unlikely but may be a safe trade for both teams. I might do a Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, and Justin Topa for Bryce Miller and Harry Ford trade.

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Their message was that the roster already had the talent to go deep into October.

They're really, really bad at their jobs then. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO pushing their philosophy & their guys instead of trusting their core was a reason why the Twins fell apart in the 2nd half. The Twins handled their 1st hurdle, of the league having the book out on their "all or nothing" approach. Baldelli & Popovich pivoted quickly & changed their approach, sending 1st Wallner down & waiting too long to send Julien down because we were in a bind. We had injuries & slumps in '23 but this was different because the chemistry was different. Due to the compromise of the core, pushing Margot & Julien into the lineup where they failed defensively & offensively instead of trusting our core & in-house players. That plus not trading for players we needed in the offseason & before the deadline & Baldelli pushing Lewis into transitioning to 2B in the middle of the season all had effect on the chemistry of the club. Again I'll say the problem wasn't with the core, it was with management. The shaking up shouldn't have been the hitting coaches or the core, it should have been management. That's not to say to fill in real holes with trades.

[mikelink45]

It's all about budget.  They have no choice but to rely on what they have because any change will be on the fringe..

[GM-WannaB]

I think it's time for the Twins to get Dynasty minded. Trade Pablo and complimentary pieces to the Red Sox for Kyle Teel and Christian Casas.

[mnfireman]

Given the fact that ownership has stated that payroll is maxed (or past maxed) the team has no choice but to trust the talent, fanbase be damned...

[old nurse]

I don’t think they trust Varland. They like Jeffers bat but would appear to doubt that he could be a full time catcher. If there is an exodus of talent through trades off the roster of controlable players that will be the answer. To the question

[sweetmusicviola16]

I concur with others, we're likely in a position of trusting what we have aside from a couple of fringe moves. It isn't just that the team collapsed late, it's also that the team fared very poorly against winning teams. We played something like .370 ball against winners. This doesn't offer me much optimism beyond being a .500 team. 

Soto 15/765 mil

[mnfireman]

13 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Soto 15/765 mil

For all the talk of players chasing championships, at the end of day it's always about the $$$...

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Those who come to Twins Daily are split on this topic. Falvey & Sons are tied to their guys in various ways and understandably still want to see a positive end result from "their" guys. A majority (slim perhaps) of TD posts agree with the idea of rolling it back and knocking on wood. Sometimes that works.

The guys in Seattle and San Diego rarely let things roll. They attempt to address perceived weaknesses. A few folks on TD are wanting to see the Twins become more proactive in addressing various concerns with the roster.

The sad part is we seem resigned to wait until March to see which players are still seeking a team. Other than the Cubs, the Twins will almost certainly begin 2025 with the largest payroll in either the AL or NL Central divisions. If three or four top free agents sign this week, there should be some real opportunities for transactions. Are the Twins prepared to act?

I for one enjoy attending those World Series parades in San Diego and Seattle.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, GM-WannaB said:

I think it's time for the Twins to get Dynasty minded. Trade Pablo and complimentary pieces to the Red Sox for Kyle Teel and Christian Casas.

Tristan Casas has a brother?  We already have Tristan Casas.  We just call him Trevor Larnach

 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

For all the talk of players chasing championships, at the end of day it's always about the $$$...

As they should. Obviously not the most important thing, but get the bag. 

But also, the Mets were better than the Yankees last season. 

[Fezig]

The Pohlad's have to know that selling a winner is easier than selling a scrap heap. I wouldn't be surprised if they make a moderate splash in free agency. If not that, a trade that most people wouldn't expect.

[Whitey333]

This is probably the least enthused I've been about a Twins off season in years; especially the Faĺvey years.  They usually wait until the end so they can bargain shop.  IMO part of the problem is in how the payroll is spent.  Too much spent on too few players.  CORREA, BUXTON, and Lewis?  You are counting on them to play regularly and produce?  Sheer fantasy.

[TopGunn#22]

That would be the hope Fezig.  But a player who would have been a good fit (Tyler O'Neill) just signed with the Orioles.  One "moderate" FA that could help the Twins a LOT that was recently mentioned by a baseball insider as a good fit for the Twins is Jurikson Profar.  Profar played LF for the Padres this past season, is a switch hitter who is effective from both sides of the plate, and hit .280 with 24 HR's and 85 RBI.  He scored 94 runs and had an OPS of .839.  He is projected to get a 3 year, $39 million dollar contract.  That's "moderate value" in today's MLB.  

The Twins would need to find a way to clear some payroll.  Paddack ($7.5 million) Vasquez ($10 million) and Willi Castro ($6.2 million) have been mentioned.  Moving any or all of them makes Profar that much more affordable and having him at the top or hitting 2nd in our lineup would be a real positive addition to the Twins and and solve the LF problem.  It would also open up a possible trade of Larnach.  

The Twins core is certainly good enough to compete in 2025.  But an addition of Profar and swinging a deal for a young catcher like Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) or Kyle Teel (Red Sox) would go al long way to adding a little excitement to the Twins off season.  After having the fan base get their hopes crushed by an ownership that is more focused on profit margins than winning, it would be a breath of fresh air.

I think anyone in the front office has to know that they are battling to keep their jobs with a new regime coming on board in the not too distant future.  A 2nd consecutive 4th place finish will ensure they will all be looking for a new job in 2026.  A division championship or playoff appearance at least gives them a chance of retaining their positions.  

 

[David Maro]

Who believes that buyers are lining up to buy the team. This team has a bad TV deal and core players that can't stay healthy. They also don't know what position players are playing one day to the next. It is the comedy act of who's on first. You only know your CF is Buxton if healthy and the catcher is Jeffers or Vasquez. Its time for to stabilize the positions and if not trade for players who can. 

[Otaknam]

The Twins have become street urchins of baseball, with their hand out hoping someone will take Vasquez and his always head scratching contract off their hands. And that someone will give them anything for Paddock and his $7.5 million contract. But even if those two events happen this offseason, I fear they will still try to dump salary in a way that hurts the team. Good luck getting the fans on board when your goal is to cut salary instead of getting better. 

[mnfireman]

10 hours ago, NYCTK said:

As they should. Obviously not the most important thing, but get the bag. 

But also, the Mets were better than the Yankees last season. 

This is what happens when players "get the bag":

https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/a-radical-idea-for-twins-to-bolster-fan-goodwill-and-engagement-take-your-hands-out-of-our-pockets-r17466/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=17466

The battle for New York was at best a "push" last year, but the NYY made the WS and the NYM did not, and that's how NY sports fans judge who's better (both lost to the LAD)...

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

This is what happens when players "get the bag":

https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/a-radical-idea-for-twins-to-bolster-fan-goodwill-and-engagement-take-your-hands-out-of-our-pockets-r17466/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=17466

The battle for New York was at best a "push" last year, but the NYY made the WS and the NYM did not, and that's how NY sports fans judge who's better (both lost to the LAD)...

Billionaires exploiting the working class is independent of a laborer getting paid a fair market value. 

Mets swept the Yankees last season and took the Dodgers to 6. Soto chose the better team and organization. 

[Doctor Gast]

I am happy that Soto went to NYM instead of the NYY. W/o Soto NYY is really going to suck.

[Blyleven2011]

One of the AL best projected roster ...

The twins are one of the major leagues streakiest  pŕojected rosters ...

We have seen the start of 2023 streaky As losers  , we have seen the start of 2024 streaky as losers  and then turn it around and  were winners only to go back to being streaky and losers  ...

The pitching isn't the real problem  , the lineup has been the problem with no consistency  , 2 or 3 hits isn't going to score you many runs  , they twins need a stabilized lineup from leadoff to the ninth in the order ...

Maybe a new hitting coach will help but that is wishful thinking  and one the FO is hoping on , THE KEY WORD WITH THE FO IS HOPE ...

The twins ranked high in runs scored , but the Twins sucked against winning teams and better pitchers ...

Please change the hitting formula to a more exciting game of baseball  , learn to hit and get on base , then steal  , hit and run or hit behind the runner , learn how to hit to all fields would be nice as alot of teams that are good hit to opposite fields , they beat the twins last year going opposite field all year , emphasize better defense to would go along way ...

It's time for a manager to be a manager and not their friend ...

 

[beckmt]

Nothing is going to change until we get a new set of owners.  Probably one reason that Levine left/was not renewed, he wanted to upgrade and spend money.   Twins are not good at the Cleveland/Tampa Bay model, and Kansas City/Detroit will spend money this offseason.  

Previous poster was correct, there is not a line to buy this club unless they can move it.  And for you optimists, leases are made to be broken, just takes sharp lawyers.  So unless the loser of the Timberwolves fight decides to buy the Twins, we are probably stuck with what we have.  We go the Tampa Bay and Cleveland route of selling off better players for prospects we believe will work and build on pitching.  Or you have to decide to spend money, the middle course does not work for a solution.

[Maybe Next Year]

I would love to see what a Bonafide manager could do with the talent on this team instead of the current manager who has zero baseball sense.  (but a really great computer for his analytics)

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Zellvey (is that what we're going with)

Corporate world, so Falvey & Sons.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, beckmt said:

And for you optimists, leases are made to be broken, just takes sharp lawyers. 

You may not be familiar with the Metrodome lease, the lawsuit, and final judgment. Leases can stop an MLB team from moving. There are precedents. Now if you are talking about negotiating an end or buying out a lease, that is entirely possible. It happens all the time including with rental agreements for apartments, etc.