Could The Twins Pull Off A Challenge Trade for a Big Cubs Bat?

[Eric Blonigen]

For once, the Twins have enough pitching. They also need to get out from under a couple contracts to have the flexibility to complete the roster. The Cubs are looking for pitching and catching help and are making middle-of-the-order bat Seiya Suzuki available. Can Derek Falvey pull off a challenge trade that makes both teams better?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Chicago Cubs are “desperate” to trade at least one of Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Their intention is to use their salary for catching and pitching help, and to create space for some of their top prospects and young players to get more playing time. While Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary (and $5 million buyout should Bellinger opt out of the final year of his deal) is almost certainly unworkable for the Twins, trading for Seiya Suzuki may be more workable. Let’s talk specifics, and discuss what it might cost to pry his bat away from the Northside of Chicago.

Seiya Suzuki is a right-handed corner outfielder who may be best suited to designated hitter. He was a five-time All-Star in the NPB, where he played for the Hiroshima Tokyo Carp. He’s under contract through 2026, making $18 million each of the next two seasons. When he enters free agency, he will have just turned 32 years old, so he’s got plenty left in the tank.

What’s to like?
Honestly, a lot. He has averaged just shy of 3.0 fWAR across his three major league seasons. He has neutral platoon splits across his career, and should be an everyday player. He would give the Twins another plus bat, and allow the Twins to hedge against the need for Jose Miranda or Edouard Julien to reach their potential (although if they do take a step forward, all the better).

From a results standpoint, all Suzuki does is hit, draws walks, and hit for power. He’s got an .824 career OPS, and the past two seasons have been even better.

He strikes out more than average, but makes up for it with a strong walk rate. His K-BB% for his MLB career is 14.8%. While he’s not a great baserunner, he does have a plus sprint speed, so he wouldn’t clog the basepaths. Still not sold? Check out his Baseball Savant page.

Despite being defensively limited, he is serviceable in right field, and Suzuki could still give the Twins a more complete roster. When the Twins face tough lefties, one of Larnach or Wallner could sit, and Suzuki could play right field. When facing righties, Suzuki could be the primary DH, and his bat is good enough to justify losing the flexibility to rotate guys through when they need a partial day off.

While he hasn’t logged even a single inning as a first baseman with the Cubs, Suzuki could also potentially be part of a first base committee. There’s no guarantee that part would work, but it’s worth exploring.  He would give the Twins additional outfield depth in the event of an injury to one of the corner guys, and would allow the front office to let Emmanuel Rodriguez continue to develop in the minors until he forces their hand. His defense wouldn't always be pretty, but he's not a butcher either.

Overall, Suzuki would check a lot of boxes for the Twins, and would make them immediately better.

What would he cost?
Here’s the thing. Seiya Suzuki would help almost every club, so there will be some competition. However, knowing the Cubs want both pitching and catching, the Twins could be a better fit than most. As current rosters stand, the Twins have the fourth-best rotation and the best bullpen in baseball, according to Fangraphs. The Cubs rank 18th in both rotation and bullpen.

Suzuki has some surplus value compared to his contract, but not an outlandish amount across the two seasons. The Twins will need to drop around $20 million in salary to take on his pay. So, I’m looking to get slightly creative here. The package I would lead with, out of necessity, is Christian Vasquez and his $10 million salary, and Chris Paddack and the $7.5 million he’s owed in 2025. That makes the deal salary-neutral so far. The Cubs would appreciate Vasquez’ defensive chops. They may not be terribly interested in Chris Paddack as they just signed Matt Boyd to round out their rotation, but perhaps they could see their way to using him as a swingman, injury replacement, or potential impact reliever.

Then, the Twins would need to add at least one impact player of their own to entice the Cubs. Giving the Cubs the option to choose between Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax could possibly be enough to get it done. It’s possible a prospect would need to change hands to balance the ledger, but it shouldn’t be a top prospect either way.

In this scenario, both teams get better, and accomplish clear goals each has for the offseason. The Twins subtract a couple million dollars in payroll, and also don’t lose anyone they can’t live without. It would hurt not having one of Duran or Jax at the back of the bullpen, but again, it’s a position of strength, and it’s likely worth it.

---

What do you think? Would you be excited about this trade? Do you think it’s realistic? Comment below!

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

I like the idea. I’m not certain we would need to include Paddack and Vazquez, but I do think the twins need a middle of the order bat

[Mark G]

I love it!  Let's do it.  

2 questions:  When it comes to our prospects, they seem to get old by the age 25.  How come established players are still young at 32?  🤭

And how are we constantly being labeled the best bullpen in the league?  Wasn't that our sore spot last part of last year?  🤔

I still like the trade, though.  👍

[In My La Z boy]

I appreciate the write up but dispute the premise;

"For once, the Twins have enough pitching"

A) I do not believe this statement is possible. No one ever has enough pitching.
B) Ryan going down in August is a big issue, and we'll see what happens next year.
C) After Lopez/Ober/SWR/Ryan, no one has proven anything. Our depth is suspect.
D) We finished 2024 very poorly on the mound.

And I am in disagreement with the notion we need a RH corner OF. Buxton/Correa are being paid handsomely to be our RH power, and we need to turn Larnach & Wallner loose and let them both play everyday and see what happens in 2025!

[Otaknam]

For some reason I cannot read this column. But if the writer is suggesting the Twins pursue either Bellinger or Suzuki, I doubt it. The Twins need a right handed hitting fourth outfielder who can play all three positions. Bellinger is a lefty hitter. Suzuki is under contract for $15 million for the next two years, so that only works if they trade Vasquez and Paddock. Even if they did, is Suzuki a fourth outfielder, or more likely he displaces either Larnach or Wallner as the everyday outfielder. And Suzuki would still be owed $15 million for the following year, so the numbers in a trade for Vazquez and Paddock only match for one year.I don’t see this as a viable option, given the penurious owners.

[CRF]

Sure, they could...I could hit the Powerball too, but that's not gonna happen either. 

[killertwinfan]

No thanks. 

[Heiny]

Yo, pass me that doobie.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

I appreciate the write up but dispute the premise;

"For once, the Twins have enough pitching"

A) I do not believe this statement is possible. No one ever has enough pitching.
B) Ryan going down in August is a big issue, and we'll see what happens next year.
C) After Lopez/Ober/SWR/Ryan, no one has proven anything. Our depth is suspect.
D) We finished 2024 very poorly on the mound.

And I am in disagreement with the notion we need a RH corner OF. Buxton/Correa are being paid handsomely to be our RH power, and we need to turn Larnach & Wallner loose and let them both play everyday and see what happens in 2025!

Nothing personal but I just can’t agree with the let’s let younger guys go or guys that have underperformed in a situation, to see what happens. To me that’s just wish thinking and reckless. Maybe Ozk if it’s a 5th OF once or twice a week. Do those two corner guys deserve some more AB’s v. LH pitching - yes! Can the Team play them together and “see what happens” - seems like a huge roll of the dice. Larnach gets nicked too often, historically, and Wallner had some back issues last year, so having a real offensive option to rotate with these two and add needed depth seems prudent!

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

For some reason I cannot read this column. But if the writer is suggesting the Twins pursue either Bellinger or Suzuki, I doubt it. The Twins need a right handed hitting fourth outfielder who can play all three positions. Bellinger is a lefty hitter. Suzuki is under contract for $15 million for the next two years, so that only works if they trade Vasquez and Paddock. Even if they did, is Suzuki a fourth outfielder, or more likely he displaces either Larnach or Wallner as the everyday outfielder. And Suzuki would still be owed $15 million for the following year, so the numbers in a trade for Vazquez and Paddock only match for one year.I don’t see this as a viable option, given the penurious owners.

I cannot read it either - all black in text areas? Anyway, I agree that adding Suzuki at $15M and feeling he then would “need to play” in front of Larnach or Wallner is a problem. One of those guys will probably need to play RF v. LH pitching (alternate?) with Martin in LF & Buxton in CF. With the health issues that Buxton has had and Kiersey as the “other CF”, it’s tougher & tougher to see trading away Castro.

[Blyleven2011]

I just don't see the advantage here , he can hit but not much defense  ...

No way is this happening , it's definitely an over pay for the twins , 2 or more players shedding 17.5 million or more and getting 1 player back at a 18 million salary  , I would be  shocked and disappointed if the twins got fleeced once again  ...

[In My La Z boy]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Nothing personal but I just can’t agree with the let’s let younger guys go or guys that have underperformed in a situation, to see what happens. To me that’s just wish thinking and reckless. Maybe Ozk if it’s a 5th OF once or twice a week. Do those two corner guys deserve some more AB’s v. LH pitching - yes! Can the Team play them together and “see what happens” - seems like a huge roll of the dice. Larnach gets nicked too often, historically, and Wallner had some back issues last year, so having a real offensive option to rotate with these two and add needed depth seems prudent!

Then trade one of them. We have to build a team. We've chosen to bet on these guys, like we chose not to bet on Rooker. At some point you need to be consistent and build on what you've been building. If 2025 isn't the year for both Larnach & Wallner to be everyday above average players than we've made a mistake. Just like we should have gone ahead and given Rooker the job and see what happens. Larnach/Wallner and Rooker were all #1 draft picks. I don't want to keep starting over. Draft, Develop and Play. We're making bad choices here.

[Mahoning]

---

Pure fantasy, but that's what baseball winters are for.  The trade proposed is basically Suzuki for a backup catcher and a top reliever, as Paddack's utility is a complete unknown. The Twins certainly need power, but they have no minor league catchers and the bullpen is hardly one of the best in baseball, so vast holes would be opened. On the other hand, maybe Suzuki could help them land Sasaki! 

[old nurse]

24 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

---

Pure fantasy, but that's what baseball winters are for.  The trade proposed is basically Suzuki for a backup catcher and a top reliever, as Paddack's utility is a complete unknown. The Twins certainly need power, but they have no minor league catchers and the bullpen is hardly one of the best in baseball, so vast holes would be opened. On the other hand, maybe Suzuki could help them land Sasaki! 

Depends on what statistic one uses. One of the best by WAR or FIP.. Not so muck by ERA, a bad bullpen by LOB %

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Otaknam said:

For some reason I cannot read this column. But if the writer is suggesting the Twins pursue either Bellinger or Suzuki, I doubt it. The Twins need a right handed hitting fourth outfielder who can play all three positions. Bellinger is a lefty hitter. Suzuki is under contract for $15 million for the next two years, so that only works if they trade Vasquez and Paddock. Even if they did, is Suzuki a fourth outfielder, or more likely he displaces either Larnach or Wallner as the everyday outfielder. And Suzuki would still be owed $15 million for the following year, so the numbers in a trade for Vazquez and Paddock only match for one year.I don’t see this as a viable option, given the penurious owners.

While I agree the Twins aren't taking on 15 mil a year over multiple years right now, Larnach would move to DH if they brought in Suzuki. Pretty easy solution there. They need another bat for the DH spot. This wouldn't displace Larnach or Wallner from the lineup.

[DocBauer]

The OP can't be ready in the "dark mode" and that's why some of you can't see it. You have to change over to the "bright mode" to read in black on white. I do think know why, but this happens with some OP pieces. Annoying. 

Compared to some offaeason theories I've read, this one makes at least SOME sense. Suzuki plays DH and shares some OF corner against tough LHP. It works.

But the Cubs get a prospect and a top pen arm and the Vazquez and Paddack contracts are done after the upcoming season. Meanwhile, the Twins get a good/decent bat...not a great one...and nothing else, and have to pay that bat $18M in 2026 and no longer have a catcher for 2025 to pair with Jeffers.

So where's the $ savings to add a veteran catcher? And it sure would be nice to be able to add a veteran LHRP for $3-4M ish.

Vazquez should be a 1yr option for the Cubs all by himself. The need/want catching help, and they don't have to give the Twins back much of anything, just a A ir rookie ball player with a little talent that's worth keeping around to see if there's something there. 

Honestly, while 1B/DH Josh Bell hasn't hit as well as Suzuki has over his 3 years, Bell has produced nearly identical 2B/HR/RBI numbers. And at perhaps as little as $7M on a FA deal, he might be a better choice due to cost and position help.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I just don't see the advantage here , he can hit but not much defense  ...

No way is this happening , it's definitely an over pay for the twins , 2 or more players shedding 17.5 million or more and getting 1 player back at a 18 million salary  , I would be  shocked and disappointed if the twins got fleeced once again  ...

The Twins got -0.2 WAR from their DH position last year if I remember right. Seiya Suzuki is a pretty nice advantage there.

[bean5302]

While it's great Suzuki doesn't have major platoon splits, Rocco Baldelli clearly doesn't care about actual results as much as theoretical results. Baldelli would platoon Babe Ruth and Kyle Garlick so Suzuki's plate appearance ceiling is probably 500ish with the Twins.

Also, I like the idea of acquiring Suzuki, but the proposed trade is going nowhere. The Cubs are shedding salary, not taking on bad contracts. Paddack and Vazquez could be traded elsewhere, but like a recent article talked about, any big moves probably hinge on the Twins dumping salary before bringing on any talent. The Twins would need to clear $25MM+ off the books to bring Suzuki in. Not happening.

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I just don't see the advantage here , he can hit but not much defense  ...

No way is this happening , it's definitely an over pay for the twins , 2 or more players shedding 17.5 million or more and getting 1 player back at a 18 million salary  , I would be  shocked and disappointed if the twins got fleeced once again  ...

Don't forget that the proposal includes giving up one of our two best relievers, so the proposal is Suzuki for three regulars. 

No can do. 

[Pykkman]

I just don’t see trading a top reliever for an $18 milllion bat when you could simply sign a free agent bat at that price? 

[weitz41]

This may be one of the better trade suggestions I've seen lately. BUT Paddack and Vesquez plus Duran or Jax is way too much. Paddack, Vasquez and (using MLB) the 10 - 15 range is fair. So maybe Mercedes or Cory Lewis. Suzuki does fit well IMO into the OF/team needs. plus, payroll drops enough to make it work this season and maybe next. I like it

[2-6CS]

Reviews future payroll projections.....um, I guess this won't work. Thanks tho.

[dxpavelka]

Lets rape the bullpen.

[twinstalker]

I normally smh at these sort of articles, but Suzuki would be a quality get who's actually gettable.  The problem is what they'd accept back.  If the Cubs accept Vazquez, a prospect will have to be attached.  I'd give them Raya in a second.  Maybe that's the reason we're calling him a top five prospect.  Strategy.  Then, yes, someone like Duran.  So essentially Duran and Raya and Vazquez for Suzuki and cash.

This, though, would require the Twins to spend on a relief a little, because, as dxpavelka says, our relief will have been xxxxxx but good.

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Lets rape the bullpen.

You can always find 2-3 arms for a bullpen. It seems like they used about 37 different ones there last year 

[TopGunn#22]

It's an interesting suggestion but even taking back Vasquez and Paddack, throwing someone like Duran/Jax in seems like too much for me.  And the benefit of moving Vasquez and Paddack is to have that $17.5 million available to plug a couple of holes.

Suzuki is a solid RH bat.  But he's not a plus defender.  He could play "some" OF, but at $15-$18 million per season for the next 2 years, while he would make the lineup better, Our OF defense would suffer without anybody above average in our corner OF at all.  

I'd like to see how BBTV's would break down the deal Eric suggested as well as a couple of variations.  What if SWR was included instead of Duran or Jax.  I'd rather keep Duran & Jax at the back of my BP than a #4 or #5 SP.  Heck, I'd give Jax a shot at the rotation and come up with a BP option.  SWR's value has never been higher.  Sell high on him and go with Festa, Matthews and Morris who probably have higher ceilings.  

Thanks for the example though Eric.  It is an interesting idea.  

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

I appreciate the write up but dispute the premise;

"For once, the Twins have enough pitching"

That caught my eye too. No, it's unlikely we will ever have "enough" pitching. 

[FargoFanMan]

15 hours ago, Pykkman said:

I just don’t see trading a top reliever for an $18 milllion bat when you could simply sign a free agent bat at that price? 

As per the self imposed budget you don’t have $18M to sign a bat. That’s why you include Vazquez and Paddack. That offsets his Suzuki’s salary. I agree Jax and Duran are too much value to add to the trade. If they are looking for catching and pitching this trade addresses that. I believe you need one more piece though to add value unless the Cubs reject this trade at the door. Either SWR or Mathew’s should be added in and I think you’ll have the Cubs at least pondering this. I think it’s close. It adds another solid bat. You ship out 2 guys that you’re shopping anyways and essentially only costs you a young pitcher. I think this is about the best offer you can get and don’t have to ship out a key bullpen piece.

[FargoFanMan]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

That caught my eye too. No, it's unlikely we will ever have "enough" pitching. 

Maybe “enough” is the wrong word. It’s not as though they have 3 #1’s. They do have a core 1, 2,3 though and solid serviceable young relatively high upside 4,5 with some other decent 4,5 types in AAA/AA. A pitching pipeline doesn’t produce aces one after the other. But it allows you to continually replenish from the back end not the top. Every now and again you have a breakthrough and the pipeline produces a 2 or a 3 and in a perfect situation you get a legitimate #1. It’s not as if you have aces overflowing your system. It takes a few years for an ace to develop. Look at Ryan and Ober. They didn’t come out of the box with a #2/3 label.

[bjorks]

The Cubs aren't taking 2 cast offs who are salary dumps, despite their needs. No team is taking Paddock without the Twins eating salary or getting a top tier prospect attached IMO. It does have some intrigue with Ballesteros (LH) learning behind someone like Vasquez (RH) for a year. The Cubs would need to probably be sold (and give) Jax a shot at starting, which is something the Twins are most likely not willing to consider. I would rather give up a Festa/Matthews/Morris/Raya than Jax/Duran and you don't have to include cash. Good premise, but you're still in the need for a catcher. Maybe you get Miguel Amaya back also to help balance out one of the 4 prospects